Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Walsoraj]

10 Year Treasury Note is now at 3.01%: http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/10_year

Can someone explain to me why this is really significant? What does this have to do with Bitcoin? I'm currently not seeing the relationship. Thank you.

as i understand it

this mean you can buy a 10 year bond that will yield 3% a year, this is not a half bad ROI for a zero risk investment, this will drive people out of the riskier assets(like bitcoin) and stocks.

thats the theory anyway.

lets see what really happens tomorrow in a few hours.

All you need to know is mortgage loans in the US fluctuate based on bond yields. So if average dumb, fat, walmart employee, American wants to buy a house, s/he is greatly limited by the rate on the 30 year loan. A single percentage point can raise monthly payments quite a bit. Home owners must lower the principle to offset the portion of monthly payments attributable to interest.

It isn't pretty. Almost all large assets that require a loan will go unsold unless the holders accept massive losses.

*edit*

Another way to think about this is that it may force many inflated asset bubbles to finally BURST! Sounds good for bitcoin. Probably is, in the long run. But not until USA decides to hyper-inflate. You are a fool if you believe this is just around the corner, in response to bubble burstings. We will see more stagnation for a while, caused by more failed QE-BY-ANOTHER-NAME. Could last years. Govs don't hyper inflate but as a last resort. We have plenty of room to suffer!

[adamstgBit]

ok so the jobs report is pretty bad
but everyone seems to think the fed will go ahead and taper.
meanwhile china continues its US bond selloff
and bitcoin is trading with uncertainty, as the news of NSA ability to brute for you moms email, gets out.

[Walsoraj]

ok so the jobs report is pretty bad
but everyone seems to think the fed will go ahead and taper.
meanwhile china continues its US bond selloff
and bitcoin is trading with uncertainty, as the news of NSA ability to brute for you moms email, gets out.

That would be hilarious. Not sure Gov has the testicles. Get some popcorn.

[Walsoraj]

ok so the jobs report is pretty bad
but everyone seems to think the fed will go ahead and taper.
meanwhile china continues its US bond selloff
and bitcoin is trading with uncertainty, as the news of NSA ability to brute for you moms email, gets out.

Email was never, ever secure.

There is no spoon.

[nanobtc]

Close? What time does Gox close?

[crazy_rabbit]

Close? What time does Gox close?

6pm.

[ChartBuddy]

[joesmoe2012]

Close? What time does Gox close?

6pm.

I thought it was 7 on Fridays?       

[Rampion]

The only thing that shocks me is that any of this is news

Exactly the same sentiment here. How is this news? Like the Prism program... Or the Wikileaks "shocking discoveries"....

[Ivanhoe]

Close? What time does Gox close?

6pm.

I thought it was 7 on Fridays?       

No, at friday they close at 1300 already because they drink beer in the midday on friday's.

[manfred]

Close? What time does Gox close?

6pm.

I thought it was 7 on Fridays?       

No, at friday they close at 1300 already because they drink beer in the midday on friday's.

I thought gox was open at this times
 

[NewLiberty]

All you need to know is mortgage loans in the US fluctuate based on bond yields. So if average dumb, fat, walmart employee, American wants to buy a house, s/he is greatly limited by the rate on the 30 year loan. A single percentage point can raise monthly payments quite a bit. Home owners must lower the principle to offset the portion of monthly payments attributable to interest.

It isn't pretty. Almost all large assets that require a loan will go unsold unless the holders accept massive losses.

*edit*

Another way to think about this is that it may force many inflated asset bubbles to finally BURST! Sounds good for bitcoin. Probably is, in the long run. But not until USA decides to hyper-inflate. You are a fool if you believe this is just around the corner, in response to bubble burstings. We will see more stagnation for a while, caused by more failed QE-BY-ANOTHER-NAME. Could last years. Govs don't hyper inflate but as a last resort. We have plenty of room to suffer!

yes..  inflation can happen fast when it happens, but we aren't always going to know when.

The onset can be swift:



The macro also matters but is a bit more complex and sometimes counter-intuitive.  When the rates rise, it encourages bond buying (which other central banks do to "back" their currency with our debt), this increases the dollar forex rate, which in turn decreases the cost of imports and makes exports more difficult to sell, which hurts the balance of trade, reducing economic output, but requires the US to become more efficient in order to compete, so we build infrastructure on borrowed money all of which gets dumped into the deficit, hastening the inflation curve.

The last few (every 30 years or so) shows the USA may be overdue...

Also notice that the lower it is before the spike, the higher the spike...

[ChartBuddy]

[oda.krell]

yes..  inflation can happen fast when it happens, but we aren't always going to know when.

The onset can be swift:



The macro also matters but is a bit more complex and sometimes counter-intuitive.  When the rates rise, it encourages bond buying (which other central banks do to "back" their currency with our debt), this increases the dollar forex rate, which in turn decreases the cost of imports and makes exports more difficult to sell, which hurts the balance of trade, reducing economic output, but requires the US to become more efficient in order to compete, so we build infrastructure on borrowed money all of which gets dumped into the deficit, hastening the inflation curve.

The last few (every 30 years or so) shows the USA may be overdue...

Also notice that the lower it is before the spike, the higher the spike...

*sigh*

Are there any bibcoin beliebers other than me that don't actually think the world economy is about to collapse, fiat is just a ponzi scheme and that Bernanke is about to reveal that he's just a  space lizard being remote controlled by a geostationary Illuminati satellite?

Anyway:

WWI. WWII. Oil crisis.

Not that we don't have our own set of crises now, but we would probably be able to see runaway inflation coming. Not years in advance maybe, but not being completely taken by surprise either.

[telemaco]

The only thing that shocks me is that any of this is news

Exactly the same sentiment here. How is this news? Like the Prism program... Or the Wikileaks "shocking discoveries"....

Or tapping all the telegraph lines, In 1864.
Operation Five Eyes, since the 1940's

Ever wonder why the NSA decided to farm out their semiconductor manufacture instead of doing it in-house? They own that shit.

They have gone far far away from my wildest nightmares. They have corrupted it absolutely. When they started jailing zimmerman, they got a NO to their sick chip, but they have continued doing it more than ever jumping over not some but all the rules around. Some time ago when the internet started you could not even place an ad on a webpage or internet users would get angry and attack you because people were passionate about the new "nation" that internet was. It was another world. A new world. Slowly, slowly they have converted the library of humankind, the biggest discovery of humankind in the most sick spying shit never invented. We thought it was another type of world but law after law, lobby after lobby they just won.

I am not the only computer specialist shocked, there are many famous techies out there absolutely shocked about what they have done with the computer industry. Thousands of highly skilled technicians have designed, created and recommended the cloud. Thousands of security experts have been working for years to make cryptography the most secure possible. Were they idiots, evil or they just could not fathom the hidden nature of NSA like the rest of the world. Maybe they should have talked with you.

When they were approached by them, most just rejected to follow and they have been persuaded. In the computer industry there has been a lot of passion, starting by innocent people, with a lot of lack of knowledge of the true nature of our masters. A 20 year old cannot even comprehend the vomit that is inside the brain of the oligarchy. Something really beautiful was being created. People had confidence in yahoo, in google, in wikipedia, lately the cloud was also the place to go and there was (there is still) a movement to reduce costs moving to "the cloud" (recommended by many computer experts). Nobody thought they were that far. We knew that britain and Us were friends but not that they were spying on each other just to avoid the laws of their respective countries, their allies. That they would just avoid the health privacy, the banking privacy, their own constitutions, just to sell the information to the better buyer.

Now even if you use something as innocent wikipedia they have converted it into something awful because they know what you are researching and when...

The nature of the computer industry and the net has not been just bad, it has allowed a level of communication and of knowledge that we did not have before. We were condemned to traditional media. Now you have hundreds of alternate media in web pages, youtube and many others that allow people to communicate and know the true nature of the beast. We were not talking in the other case.

Do we? Or does the guardian hold anything much worse?

You knew everything  from the beginning in all its depth 3 years ago in all its dimensions like we know now? Good for you.

[MAbtc]

*sigh*

Are there any bibcoin beliebers other than me that don't actually think the world economy is about to collapse, fiat is just a ponzi scheme and that Bernanke is about to reveal that he's just a  space lizard being remote controlled by a geostationary Illuminati satellite?

(raises hand)

People get pretty animated re "economic collapse!" on these forums. I guess I was the same way when I got into right-libertarian theory years ago. I now know not to underestimate this system's capability for sustaining the unsustainable. We're always on the brink around here, though! 

[phoenix1]

Meanwhile, whats with the BitStamp  Gox gap ... only $7 now
Sorry ... $6.2 now ...

[xxjs]

*sigh*

Are there any bibcoin beliebers other than me that don't actually think the world economy is about to collapse, fiat is just a ponzi scheme and that Bernanke is about to reveal that he's just a  space lizard being remote controlled by a geostationary Illuminati satellite?

(raises hand)

People get pretty animated re "economic collapse!" on these forums. I guess I was the same way when I got into right-libertarian theory years ago. I now know not to underestimate this system's capability for sustaining the unsustainable. We're always on the brink around here, though! 

Everyone running around talking about a bubble is a fool until the bubble breaks.

[ChartBuddy]

[oda.krell]

edit: All ya'll are not nearly cynical enough.

Both yes and no to that. Who knows what they're capable of doing. 20 years from now, that generation's geeks will probably sneer at the naivety in which we conducted our Interwebbing.

But I don't believe for one second that they or anyone else "broke" strong encryption in any meaningful mathematical sense. Backdoors galore, supersecretmathematicalbreakthroughsomethingquantum... nore?

That gives me some comfort.