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gandhibt
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November 08, 2013, 06:32:39 PM |
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You don't have to sell before the "big crash", you can sell in the first rebound. This is the big secret that keeps your stress levels low. Sure you lose some %, but this is a very risk free tactic vs. try to catch the top.
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Sitarow
Legendary
 Offline
Activity: 1792
Merit: 1047
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November 08, 2013, 06:34:32 PM |
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BlueTemplar
Full Member
Offline
Activity: 164
Merit: 100
Gone for a minute now back again
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November 08, 2013, 06:34:53 PM |
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On the weekly chart we are just now starting to see the kind of growth that characterized mid to late March. (33% now vs 35%-46% then)
If things play out the same way now that they did then, we've got about 3 weeks left before some major exchange melts down and causes a panic.
In March, we went +55% in 4 days from 47$ to 73$ : http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zczsg2013-03-18zeg2013-03-21ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzpIn the last 4 days, we went +59% from 169€ to 269€. Wow, you may be right, maybe this bubble WON'T pop! (right now) I should have checked previous bitcoin increases more thoroughly... Well, I guess in that case I'll just diversify into gold and silver with those "useless" € I just got trying to sell at the top... |
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gandhibt
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November 08, 2013, 06:37:04 PM |
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On the weekly chart we are just now starting to see the kind of growth that characterized mid to late March. (33% now vs 35%-46% then)
If things play out the same way now that they did then, we've got about 3 weeks left before some major exchange melts down and causes a panic.
In March, we went +55% in 4 days from 47$ to 73$ : http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zczsg2013-03-18zeg2013-03-21ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzpIn the last 4 days, we went +59% from 169€ to 269€. Wow, you may be right, maybe this bubble WON'T pop! (right now) I should have checked previous bitcoin increases more thoroughly... Well, I guess in that case I'll just diversify into gold and silver with those "useless" € I just got trying to sell at the top... Why is it so hard to buy back in with a loss? |
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adamstgBit
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1037
Trusted Bitcoiner
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November 08, 2013, 06:40:06 PM |
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On the weekly chart we are just now starting to see the kind of growth that characterized mid to late March. (33% now vs 35%-46% then)
If things play out the same way now that they did then, we've got about 3 weeks left before some major exchange melts down and causes a panic.
In March, we went +55% in 4 days from 47$ to 73$ : http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zczsg2013-03-18zeg2013-03-21ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzpIn the last 4 days, we went +59% from 169€ to 269€. Wow, you may be right, maybe this bubble WON'T pop! (right now) I should have checked previous bitcoin increases more thoroughly... Well, I guess in that case I'll just diversify into gold and silver with those "useless" € I just got trying to sell at the top... Why is it so hard to buy back in with a loss? it just is  |
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jojo69
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 3346
Merit: 4621
diamond-handed zealot
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November 08, 2013, 06:41:42 PM |
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On the weekly chart we are just now starting to see the kind of growth that characterized mid to late March. (33% now vs 35%-46% then)
If things play out the same way now that they did then, we've got about 3 weeks left before some major exchange melts down and causes a panic.
In March, we went +55% in 4 days from 47$ to 73$ : http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zczsg2013-03-18zeg2013-03-21ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzpIn the last 4 days, we went +59% from 169€ to 269€. Wow, you may be right, maybe this bubble WON'T pop! (right now) I should have checked previous bitcoin increases more thoroughly... Well, I guess in that case I'll just diversify into gold and silver with those "useless" € I just got trying to sell at the top... Why is it so hard to buy back in with a loss? because as soon as you do we correct down to $150 for 3 weeks |
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Rampion
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1148
Merit: 1018
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November 08, 2013, 06:42:17 PM |
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On the weekly chart we are just now starting to see the kind of growth that characterized mid to late March. (33% now vs 35%-46% then)
If things play out the same way now that they did then, we've got about 3 weeks left before some major exchange melts down and causes a panic.
In March, we went +55% in 4 days from 47$ to 73$ : http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zczsg2013-03-18zeg2013-03-21ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzpIn the last 4 days, we went +59% from 169€ to 269€. Wow, you may be right, maybe this bubble WON'T pop! (right now) I should have checked previous bitcoin increases more thoroughly... Well, I guess in that case I'll just diversify into gold and silver with those "useless" € I just got trying to sell at the top... Why is it so hard to buy back in with a loss? Because its very hard to see that you fucked up and that you have less BTC than you had on beforehand. For me that's the worst feeling  |
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gandhibt
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November 08, 2013, 06:42:40 PM |
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Most of my trades end up buying back in with a loss, that's the best way to trade in my opinion =)
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Its About Sharing
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1442
Merit: 1000
Antifragile
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November 08, 2013, 06:44:41 PM |
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On the weekly chart we are just now starting to see the kind of growth that characterized mid to late March. (33% now vs 35%-46% then)
If things play out the same way now that they did then, we've got about 3 weeks left before some major exchange melts down and causes a panic.
In March, we went +55% in 4 days from 47$ to 73$ : http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zczsg2013-03-18zeg2013-03-21ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzpIn the last 4 days, we went +59% from 169€ to 269€. Wow, you may be right, maybe this bubble WON'T pop! (right now) I should have checked previous bitcoin increases more thoroughly... Well, I guess in that case I'll just diversify into gold and silver with those "useless" € I just got trying to sell at the top... Add to my math, but keeping it simple. If we do 266(top)/73 = 3.64 Then we can say X/269=3.64... X= $980 Is that our top?  |
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Wekkel
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 3108
Merit: 1531
yes
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November 08, 2013, 06:45:48 PM |
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Its better to avoid big price dips than anything else. Get out soon enough saves capital. If too soon, just wait for the next opportunity.
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dserrano5
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1974
Merit: 1029
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November 08, 2013, 06:46:57 PM |
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Why is it so hard to buy back in with a loss?
Obviously, because of the "loss" part. It's difficult to do it the first times, then you get used to that warm feeling "hah good thing I bought again, it's going UP!". |
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Nemo1024
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1680
Merit: 1014
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November 08, 2013, 06:47:12 PM |
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I have an interesting decision to make. I'll not be able to trade over the week-end, and probably for the whole next week.
Most of the coins were moved to a cold wallet.
Now, what to do with the rest...
Initially I planned to sell all and place scattered buy orders from below 250 and down to 150 with 3-5 dollar distance, and see which of them would get filled during my absence.
Looking at the latest development and extrapolating what happened in April, I am starting to get inclined to do the opposite: place scattered sell orders from 350 and up to 600, and hope that the top will not arrive before that, to subsequently re-buy at the new level, which I think will be around 400 (+/-100).
Any input from the experts?
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Rampion
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1148
Merit: 1018
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November 08, 2013, 06:48:23 PM |
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On the weekly chart we are just now starting to see the kind of growth that characterized mid to late March. (33% now vs 35%-46% then)
If things play out the same way now that they did then, we've got about 3 weeks left before some major exchange melts down and causes a panic.
In March, we went +55% in 4 days from 47$ to 73$ : http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zczsg2013-03-18zeg2013-03-21ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzpIn the last 4 days, we went +59% from 169€ to 269€. Wow, you may be right, maybe this bubble WON'T pop! (right now) I should have checked previous bitcoin increases more thoroughly... Well, I guess in that case I'll just diversify into gold and silver with those "useless" € I just got trying to sell at the top... Add to my math, but keeping it simple. If we do 266(top)/73 = 3.64 Then we can say X/269=3.64... X= $980 Is that our top? I have to say that's the top I have in my mind. My initial plan is to realize some profits at $700, and some more at $970. I mean... x30 profit on average is good enough to cash in some fiat for me. But I will keep most of my BTC stash for the long run |
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Nemesis
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November 08, 2013, 06:48:37 PM |
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Why is it so hard to buy back in with a loss?
Obviously, because of the "loss" part. It's difficult to do it the first times, then you get used to that warm feeling "hah good thing I bought again, it's going UP!". + 1... everyone should just buy and hold. sell btc to SPEND on real things or services! |
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Loaded
Full Member
Offline
Activity: 135
Merit: 113
whale eater
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November 08, 2013, 06:51:55 PM |
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The amount of coins on sale on the exchange is shrinking fast. Only 6k on sale on BTCChina, 7k on Bitstamp, 11k on Gox.
This is the "all time low" in terms of BTC on sale. Just think about how Avalon holds 65k coins in one address.
In my opinion is not a very good sign, it would be better for the trend to be fueled by new money in instead of scarcity of supply - just because the scarcity can be easily reversed by only one big holder.
I guess this is the nature of "penny stock market", and BTC behaves completely as a penny stock market.
Tighten your seat belts.
Thing is, more coins than ever are locked up for the time being and can't make it to the exchanges in the foreseeable future. The FBI has 174.000 BTC and probably won't be able to sell them until after the case against Ulbricht Bitcoin Investment Trust has 60.000+ BTC locked up that they are obliged to hold on to for their customers for probably at least a year (the number is based on the fact that they had 15.000.000 USD invested when the exchange rate was ~250 USD/BTC). This number will probably rise quite a bit in the coming months as they will buy more bitcoins to supply to new customers. Possibly, the success of BIT will make other high profile individuals/companies imitate them and start buying up coins to start competing businesses. This would lead to additionally 10ks of coins being looked up for the time being. This is just speculation though, but a fairly reasonable assumption as far as I'm concerned. You also have the Winklevii twins claiming they had 1%+ of all bitcoins in the beginning of the year waiting for their ETF. That's at least 110.000 BTC. We also have Chamath Palihapitiya, ex Facebook-executive, who claimed to have 5.000.000 USD invested in BTC at the end of october. At the exchange rate back then, that would be 25.000+ BTC. He also said he was still looking to acquire more. And there is a very high likelihood we have unknown high profile investors who have made private bets but hasn't said so officially. This is hard to quantify, but I belive this is at least a multiple of 10ks of bitcoins being locked up for the time being in anonymous rich investors' wallets. If you add it all up, far more coins are being "on hold" right now, than ever before. 40000 here that will not be for sale any time soon. Might move more from my active trading wallet. |
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Its About Sharing
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1442
Merit: 1000
Antifragile
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November 08, 2013, 06:57:13 PM |
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On the weekly chart we are just now starting to see the kind of growth that characterized mid to late March. (33% now vs 35%-46% then)
If things play out the same way now that they did then, we've got about 3 weeks left before some major exchange melts down and causes a panic.
In March, we went +55% in 4 days from 47$ to 73$ : http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zczsg2013-03-18zeg2013-03-21ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzpIn the last 4 days, we went +59% from 169€ to 269€. Wow, you may be right, maybe this bubble WON'T pop! (right now) I should have checked previous bitcoin increases more thoroughly... Well, I guess in that case I'll just diversify into gold and silver with those "useless" € I just got trying to sell at the top... Add to my math, but keeping it simple. If we do 266(top)/73 = 3.64 Then we can say X/269=3.64... X= $980 Is that our top? I have to say that's the top I have in my mind. My initial plan is to realize some profits at $700, and some more at $970. I mean... x30 profit on average is good enough to cash in some fiat for me. But I will keep most of my BTC stash for the long run Brother Rampion, hope you are well! You bring up a great point. I really wonder about selling some at 700 ish (to make up for my initial investment, or maybe 1/2 of it). Then just watch the next 5 years unfold. Now, when BTC goes to 10,000 dollars, that is when we need to start giving away BTC's to organizations to change the world. Just think of what Satoshi could do there... Remember, this is a disruptive technology, let's disrupt.
IAS ps - Yes, the mining investments were bad for me too. But, we will still make our money back at higher prices, so just look at it as a hobby that pays for itself. |
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humanitee
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November 08, 2013, 06:57:26 PM |
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40000 here that will not be for sale any time soon. Might move more from my active trading wallet.
Drool Eye drool |
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ChartBuddy
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2352
Merit: 1803
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
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November 08, 2013, 07:01:35 PM |
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rudrigorc2
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1064
Merit: 1000
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November 08, 2013, 07:06:18 PM |
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On the weekly chart we are just now starting to see the kind of growth that characterized mid to late March. (33% now vs 35%-46% then)
If things play out the same way now that they did then, we've got about 3 weeks left before some major exchange melts down and causes a panic.
In March, we went +55% in 4 days from 47$ to 73$ : http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zczsg2013-03-18zeg2013-03-21ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzpIn the last 4 days, we went +59% from 169€ to 269€. Wow, you may be right, maybe this bubble WON'T pop! (right now) I should have checked previous bitcoin increases more thoroughly... Well, I guess in that case I'll just diversify into gold and silver with those "useless" € I just got trying to sell at the top... Add to my math, but keeping it simple. If we do 266(top)/73 = 3.64 Then we can say X/269=3.64... X= $980 Is that our top? I have to say that's the top I have in my mind. My initial plan is to realize some profits at $700, and some more at $970. I mean... x30 profit on average is good enough to cash in some fiat for me. But I will keep most of my BTC stash for the long run Brother Rampion, hope you are well! You bring up a great point. I really wonder about selling some at 700 ish (to make up for my initial investment, or maybe 1/2 of it). Then just watch the next 5 years unfold. Now, when BTC goes to 10,000 dollars, that is when we need to start giving away BTC's to organizations to change the world. Just think of what Satoshi could do there... Remember, this is a disruptive technology, let's disrupt.
IAS ps - Yes, the mining investments were bad for me too. But, we will still make our money back at higher prices, so just look at it as a hobby that pays for itself. Like the perspective you put things in. Im proud of being part of this. Lets disrupt. GO black swan |
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