Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[gandhibt]

So few coins in Gox that I am sure a 5000 BTC wallmaker could churn out some profit today...

You and rontus trying to get more coins?

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[ChartBuddy]

[rpietila]

So few coins in Gox that I am sure a 5000 BTC wallmaker could churn out some profit today...

You and rontus trying to get more coins?

It is hard to beat buy&hold, but sometimes we try...

[Sitarow]

Panic some more, please. It is so fun to watch


What we are seeing now was not so hard to predict:

Flashcrash alert.

The rest of the week may be choppy since we are already so much higher than last week. The weekly gains tend to normalize, and I would not be surprised to see Sunday at around 280-300 like we are now.

Retest of previous ATH from the above in the form of flashcrash is probably coming. I don't believe sub-250 territory will be visited except during the flashcrash.

Risk of a change in main trend is low.

Looking forward, it is better to buy now than wait. I would be wary if price goes 600+ in November or 700+ in December, since they may be overextended.

BUT

A real crash will have the following characteristic:
- price will have risen really high, really quickly over several weeks
- 100,000s of bitcoins are brought to the market by large manipulators that are sure of their ability to tip it over
- Some bitcoins will be sold to induce the forced closure of leveraged positions, resulting in a flashcrash
- Price will quickly bounce back to almost where it was
- The following day/night lots of bitcoins will be sold to destroy the market sentiment and start a panic
- Exchanges, information services, this forum, etc. will be ddosed, mass media publicity will be enormous and negative
- Price will plummet so that about 3 weeks' gains will be erased (about 75% from the high), although it will remain above the previous ATH (in this case $266) by a clear margin.

I won't go into details why it happens this way, but a big reason is that exchanges utterly lack liquidity and btc/usd-rate is therefore at a mercy of manipulators.

This is a serious question. Do you have a book? If so, where can I get it? I think your insight might prove to be eerily on the mark...

He is quoting past history that had occurred a few times. Once at $31 and then on the rise from 6 to 12 and finally at $266.

Key catalyst on the rise from 6 to 12 was that the leverage device at the time was using mtgox as there exchaing of choice.

At $266 It was at combination of market sentiment and MtGox pending new account activations and inability to cope with the increase of volume trade from its users and the persistent ddoss attacks that would occur every time someone wished to sell large amounts of BTC.

The reality today is that BTC trade has now moved off of mtgox and as we have seen dispute attempts to duplicate this.
It has little effect.

As more fiat enters the network over the coming weeks expect to see less and less BTC as big players start hording a few BTC with their disposable income.

[gambitv]

As more fiat enters the network over the coming weeks expect to see less and less BTC as big players start hording a few BTC with their disposable income.

Because the bitcoin snuffleupagus is hoovering up all the coins.

[ChartBuddy]

[spooderman]

I thought this was consolidation, but it's starting to look like the first day of the April crash, in which case we'll hit about 120 in 3 days.

[samson]

This is starting to look familiar...

[samson]

I thought this was consolidation, but it's starting to look like the first day of the April crash, in which case we'll hit about 120 in 3 days.

I'd guess $120-$150.

So long as it stays above $100/$110 that's a huge advance over the April post crash low so things will still be looking good in the long term.

[crazy_rabbit]

I thought this was consolidation, but it's starting to look like the first day of the April crash, in which case we'll hit about 120 in 3 days.

I'd guess $120-$150.

So long as it stays above $100/$110 that's a huge advance over the April post crash low so things will still be looking good in the long term.

I doubt it. There's no bad news, nor structural problem (IE: Gox freezing up  and having 80% of the market). It's the weekend, and it's a big dip. PRobably will be a little longer seeing as monday is a bank holiday.

[nottorious91]

Not sure we are going to get much lower than the april high if at all.

New money on monday will hit. People have been looking to buy.

Lots of pm s asking me if i will sell to them. I say no.


Chooooo choooooo

Can you be more obvious? 

[Taxidermista]

I doubt it. There's no bad news, nor structural problem (IE: Gox freezing up  and having 80% of the market). It's the weekend, and it's a big dip. PRobably will be a little longer seeing as monday is a bank holiday.

Bank holiday where?? In YOUR fucking country??

[pera]

 

[theonewhowaskazu]

This isn't the april crash. That much is obvious. We didn't fall nearly as hard, and we've just flatlined at about $300 for a while. If we're crashing, were in for a 2010 style slow-steady-slide. I don't think this is the kind where you wake up and suddenly you see a billion cheap coins floating around and a low of like $60.

[samson]

 

LOL, it's time to wake up. US West coast should be waking up soon.

[theonewhowaskazu]

 

LOL, it's time to wake up. US West coast should be waking up soon.

We already woke up. ~.~ Its almost 8:00 here.

[crazy_rabbit]

I doubt it. There's no bad news, nor structural problem (IE: Gox freezing up  and having 80% of the market). It's the weekend, and it's a big dip. PRobably will be a little longer seeing as monday is a bank holiday.

Bank holiday where?? In YOUR fucking country??

The United States. Unless your country is China, I'll go out on a limb and say your country probably doesn't make or break the bitcoin price. So, cheers.

[Walsoraj]

Is there a consensus on which exchange is leading these downturns?

[malevolent]

I doubt it. There's no bad news, nor structural problem (IE: Gox freezing up  and having 80% of the market). It's the weekend, and it's a big dip. PRobably will be a little longer seeing as monday is a bank holiday.

+1
I'd be really surprised if the price would ever go below $200 and stayed there for a longer time (e.g. few weeks or more). The trading is currently spread across multiple exchanges so it is less likely that Gox's incompetence would have a considerable effect on the speculator's confidence in Bitcoin.

$300 is the new $150

I doubt it. There's no bad news, nor structural problem (IE: Gox freezing up  and having 80% of the market). It's the weekend, and it's a big dip. PRobably will be a little longer seeing as monday is a bank holiday.

Bank holiday where?? In YOUR fucking country??

In Poland (where Mt.Gox has a BZ WBK bank account) there's a bank holiday on November 11.

edit: didn't know there was a bank holiday anywhere else

[theonewhowaskazu]

Is there a consensus on which exchange is leading these downturns?

Well, didn't BTCChina noob and go offline during the crash?