Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[STT]

Yet we have known since Adam Smith that the hidden hand of the marketplace will ensure that the optimal solution is arrived at by letting prices find their own equilibrium. This has been more formalized in more recent times in that the price and quantity of a good will be set at the point where the demand/price curve and the supply/price curve intersect. Further still, dead losses are incurred any time production quotas are enforced. Given this, why do you assert the utility of a production quota on transaction throughput? Why not trust miners to set the tx throughput supply to maximize profit under the demand and supply curves?

The reason BTC price rises so much is unlike most commodity markets the supply is fixed and not subject to oversupply as much as a normal market that will increase production to match the increased profit available.   
I like the general point about freedom of production but I think its more reliable to keep a quota of blocks in this case, security is the main purpose that must be served

Scaling will have to come from second layer solutions.

I prefer this as it should increase stability and support and also I think it promotes innovation and creativity, any failures of those ideas occur off the main chain.  Leaving BTC to be the most regular reliable central blockchain


 9231 support & 9909 ceiling, both fib lines seem a good match to action recently.

[JayJuanGee]

even if I have a vision in my head, I become reluctant to say my vision out loud because there are too many contingencies that end up lowering the probability of that outcome by a considerable amount

Let me see if I understand you. You seem to be saying that, should you inform others as to your envisioned strategy, others will use this knowledge to trade against you, thereby affecting the actual market price, and dooming your strategy to failure. Is that what I am reading?

I believe that you are reading the subject matter of my post incorrectly.  I have attached the full context of the text (my earlier post) below for ease of referrenc.

In the past, sometimes I said that I don't want to say too much about some specific little trading strategy secrets based on a rationale similar to what you are outlining, but largely I am considerably transparent with the amount of specifics that I give, especially about the broad parameters of my trading strategy and many of the details of what I do and how I play my trades.  Ultimately, there is going to be some flexibility in any trading methodology that is going to be left to individuals to tweak based on their own circumstances, including their timeline, amount of time they can dedicate to the project, risk tolerance, financial circumstances, previous positions taken, etc. etc..

In this particular instance (your selection of quoted text from me), I was not referring to trading strategy, but instead, I was referring to predicting the price.  If I attempt to predict BTC prices one or two legs out, then there might be circumstances that I will assign decent probabilities to one or two legs, and I will be willing to express my level of confidence, but if I am attempting to predict further out (or more legs) then probabilities that I might assign will likely become so tentative and speculative that it is not really worth expressing what I think might happen.  So I am not really trying to be secretive, even though I have a tentative view in my head that I believe is the most probable of outcomes - yet even with that longer vision that is several legs out, as soon as one of the earlier legs play out a bit differently than expected, then it could screw up my earlier view on the later legs. 

So I am really not withholding information out of any kind of deviant or conspiracy thoughts, but instead that I don't believe that it is very important to share my thoughts on BTC price movements several legs out because those kind of views are frequently changing, but the one or two legs out might not be changing as much and the overall bullish long term view is not really changing too much, either.   

Hopefully that clarifies, somewhat, what I meant by the text that you quoted.

I don't have any issue with what you are saying, and it comes off as reasonable; however, I also have difficulties attempting to assign any kind of level of certainty to anything beyond one leg.  Or maybe I could reasonably assert something like, there is a decently sized possibility that prices will break above $10k in the coming day (perhaps 63%), and once prices break above $10k, if they do, then the odds are greater than 75% that they are going to appreciate at least 10% above $10k.. the odds of those two together seem to be .63 x .75, which is only 47.25%, so once you start to add up events, the probabilities begin to trickle way below 50%, and maybe I am even assigning too high of percentages to the preceding events, so I start to worry that I am speculating way too much if I try to string along too many events at once - even if I have a vision in my head, I become reluctant to say my vision out loud because there are too many contingencies that end up lowering the probability of that outcome by a considerable amount, even though I view my scenario as the most likely of scenarios, it begins to trickle down to the 1/3 or below territory, so it becomes more likely that I am wrong, even if I am picking the most likely of the then available options.  I hope that makes sense.

[jbreher]

Yet we have known since Adam Smith that the hidden hand of the marketplace will ensure that the optimal solution is arrived at by letting prices find their own equilibrium. This has been more formalized in more recent times in that the price and quantity of a good will be set at the point where the demand/price curve and the supply/price curve intersect. Further still, dead losses are incurred any time production quotas are enforced. Given this, why do you assert the utility of a production quota on transaction throughput? Why not trust miners to set the tx throughput supply to maximize profit under the demand and supply curves?

The reason BTC price rises so much is unlike most commodity markets the supply is fixed and not subject to oversupply as much as a normal market that will increase production to match the increased profit available.   

You seem to be conflating the supply of BTC with the supply of space in BTC blocks for transaction inclusion. Two very different goods.

[JayJuanGee]

Btw why the hell are some of you guys meriting realr0ach?

Stop encouraging him. Not only is he a Nazi troll, he gives zero merits in return fyi.  

I already told you people I do not support the merit system and it obviously does not work evidenced by the fact JayJuanGee is one of the largest merit holders.  It's just some bullshit where whoever posts the highest amount of mindless pumper posts that make zero sense get merited by other people hoping to profit on a pump and dump.

Ultimately, you are agreeing that you are a stingy ass.

In essence, you don't give out merits because you believe some peeps don't deserve to receive them, such as me? 

You make no sense on this point, as well as a lot of other stupid-ass hate-filled points that you try to lamely make.

It seems that you have little to no attempt at social norms - and thus hide on the internet.  Accordingly, I hope that you are not so self-obsessed in your hate in the real world, because you are likely to miss out on a lot of self-satisfaction that come from interacting with others, giving to others and sometimes compromising in the process of interacting with others, even when you don't want to (go figure?).

[JayJuanGee]

I never understood why there is resistance? I dont get it, can somebody explain? 10k will break. Why are people building walls to hold it sub 10k as long as possible?

Usually the intent of a seller is to actually sell their coins, not to manipulate the market and "hold it down".

Here's another example of the fantasy world that you seem to live.

[TERA2]

I never understood why there is resistance? I dont get it, can somebody explain? 10k will break. Why are people building walls to hold it sub 10k as long as possible?

Usually the intent of a seller is to actually sell their coins, not to manipulate the market and "hold it down".

Here's another example of the fantasy world that you seem to live.

You know that spoofing and market manipulation is illegal, right? You're claiming that the majority of the sell book is just criminals and they are all putting themselves and tens of millions of dollars on the line so they can somehow subtly manipulate the market, while also risking that a large buyer just comes and eats the entire thing (which should happen if things are as bullish as you believe). That sounds like a tin foil hat conspiracy theory. The burden is on you to prove such absurdity.

[JayJuanGee]

I was expressing that I would enjoy a new bottom so I could shut you all up, since all the rude bulls here are so agressive during these rallies. Whether it will actually happen is another story.

Now 3 months ago I already did  this 'putting up' by splitting my profits into a ratio of coins and fiat based on my (non-binary) level of certainty. Im not sure what else you think I should do or why I should be obligated to make some kind of personal bet with a W.O. poster in order to keep observing walls.

The *real* TERA would have made a bottom call. And the real TERA would have some data to back it up. This is why I know why you are a total fraud, and not the real TERA.

I have to refute and claim my authenticity as king TERA, as if this were a prestigious position. However I still do not wished to be tricked into some kind of bet with you. Ive made some calls in the past about the bottom of the current run but at this point I could only speculate with a guess about a scenario that may or may not happen.

You sound like the "real" tera beara to me... but probably it does not matter that much anyhow,.... you are close enuff.

[Last of the V8s]

Don't worry, Vitalik, my son, we have Kompromat on all those SEC noobs.
Set buy orders all the way down.
Yes, all cryptos.

[DaRude]

Well, not seeing us testing $10k by mid-week at this rate.

Fuck.

Is BTC dead?

[Elwar]

I never understood why there is resistance? I dont get it, can somebody explain? 10k will break. Why are people building walls to hold it sub 10k as long as possible?

Usually the intent of a seller is to actually sell their coins, not to manipulate the market and "hold it down".

Here's another example of the fantasy world that you seem to live.

You know that spoofing and market manipulation is illegal, right?

I have seen this in a news article but have not seen any laws about this.

It is illegal everywhere in the world?

[Ibian]

Why is btrash doing so well ?

Probably because of the upcoming fork.
...

Proponents are looking forward to a 32 MB block size increase and op-code additions that could bring ethereum-like characteristics to the BCH network.

Jesus Titty-Fucking Christ.

The cancer that is BCash cannot die soon enough, along with Roger Ver.

Bigger blocks is a good thing. The problem is that they are being deceptive cunts. If we had chosen big blocks and they had chosen segwit, we would still think the same thing about them, and for the same reason. And be applauding ourselves for making the correct choice.

It's the people, not the tech.

Perhaps, but we do have better tech.

By what metric? Not interested in having that debate, but it needs to be backed up by something.

Regardless of that, if the tech were reversed we would be talking about how they overly complicated things. Humans feel first and then rationalize. Especially in this sort of tribal spat.

[hv_]

Why is btrash doing so well ?

Probably because of the upcoming fork.
...

Proponents are looking forward to a 32 MB block size increase and op-code additions that could bring ethereum-like characteristics to the BCH network.

Jesus Titty-Fucking Christ.

The cancer that is BCash cannot die soon enough, along with Roger Ver.

Bigger blocks is a good thing. The problem is that they are being deceptive cunts. If we had chosen big blocks and they had chosen segwit, we would still think the same thing about them, and for the same reason. And be applauding ourselves for making the correct choice.

It's the people, not the tech.

Perhaps, but we do have better tech.

By what metric? Not interested in having that debate, but it needs to be backed up by something.

Regardless of that, if the tech were reversed we would be talking about how they overly complicated things. Humans feel first and then rationalize. Especially in this sort of tribal spat.

So there is no perfect simulator in existence yet solving all that questions.

We need to try it - that's done with open source / markets.

[Last of the V8s]

On telly this week

[Last of the V8s]

Cannot find a thing on sec/cftc working group today re ether. Was it WSJ fud or we just get a report ex post facto?

ps: jojo69 eth volatile enough for you? setting records for volume

[stompix]

Don't worry, Vitalik, my son, we have Kompromat on all those SEC noobs.
Set buy orders all the way down.
Yes, all cryptos.

I forgot the guy that wants to claim the blockchain for himself has just sworn in as president.....again



Hmm, I should have used an eth logo? 

[Raja_MBZ]

Well, not seeing us testing $10k by mid-week at this rate.

It's OK, we're still going to reach $12280 *on 11th June.

[bitcoinPsycho]

Well, not seeing us testing $10k by mid-week at this rate.

It's OK, we're still going to reach $12280 *on 11th June.

sorry to break it to you but I think you'll find it will be the 12th june

[Torque]

Seeing as how the trolls came back to spend several concentrated pages trolling, we must be going up soon.

[Totscha]

Seeing as how the trolls came back to spend several concentrated pages trolling, we must be going up soon.

I need to sell some first. Then we go up

[vapourminer]

Talking about death... one of my Ledger wallets have died. It has a burn mark near the LCD (deforming the plastic case) as if it had internally shortcircuited or something....

Anyone knows if there is some warranty replacement or something?

Has it happened to anyone else?

check this reddit thread:

https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/7riczy/melted_ledger_nano_s/

WOW! That is EXACTLY like mine looks like. Same burn mark in the same corner! I wouldn't be able to distinguish that one to mine!

Gotta read it Thanks!

P.S.: Looks like there is not much to learn there except I am not the first one with that same problem so maybe there is hope for a replacement.

np.

i have a nano s thats just for erc20 stuff (trezor can do erc20 as well but i wanted them separate), i have two trezor ones (the originals, which i like MUCH more than the nano) and a trezor T on its way. use those for the main stacks.

i prefer to spread my coins around multiple devices in case one device (or its seed) gets compromised or destroyed. although the since the seeds are spread around so much unless most of the state i live in gets wiped off the earth thats a pretty small possibility.

but still i feel safer with some on paper, some on varied hardware, and smallish amounts of spending money on computer and android phone.