Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Aren't some of these seasonality cycle narratives a bit ridiculous?


Sure, I do not mind seeing the various comparisons as a thought process, yet frequently there seems to be way to much attempt to hype a cycle as if it exists, likely pumps or dumps every year at certain months, too... the latest of which was the suggestions of pumps at the end of the calendar year and dumps at the beginning of the calendar year.

Part of my point is that there may be some of these kinds of coincidences, but the reality remains that circumstances surrounding bitcoin are changing all the time, and there may be momentum in one direction or another direction at any time, but bitcoin is never at the same point in a river, at any time, even though the upcoming curve might seem similar.

#/take these bitcoin seasonal cycle claims with a decently large grain of salt/#

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[jbreher]

http://esprit-riche.com/downloads/The%20Richest%20Man%20In%20Babylon.pdf

Unlikely to launch into a 150 page tome without at least some description of why it may be relevant to my life.

[Phil_S]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Richest_Man_in_Babylon_(book)

Good for beginers, but it's not a revelation for most of us here.

[Kylapoiss]

http://esprit-riche.com/downloads/The%20Richest%20Man%20In%20Babylon.pdf

Unlikely to launch into a 150 page tome without at least some description of why it may be relevant to my life.

The Richest Man in Babylon is a book by George Samuel Clason that dispenses financial advice through a collection of parables set in ancient Babylon. Through their experiences in business and managing household finance, the characters in the parables learn simple lessons in financial wisdom.

So I guess it teaches you how to be wise with money, has quite high ratings aswell according to google. Haven't read it yet, but I'll probably give it a shot.

[jojo69]

Hmmm,

I wonder if filling this thing with hydrogen was really the best idea.

[buyandhold]

thing?

[cAPSLOCK]

Hmmm,

I wonder if filling this thing with hydrogen was really the best idea.

Blimp design?  Fuel cell?  Questions the sun asks itself?

[arklan]

Hmmm,

I wonder if filling this thing with hydrogen was really the best idea.

well, helium was just too damn expensive, and in limited supply as well. it'll be fine!

[Karartma1]

I don't know. Vegeta is working hard but no sign of a strong uptrend over the horizon. I got too much excited: I shouldn't drink too much over the weekend for a few dollars up

[JayJuanGee]

This tweet from Charlie Lee has surprised me:

https://twitter.com/SatoshiLite/status/997978007875670016

He was millionaire before Bitcoin? Surprising. Anyone knows what he was doing before?

I think he worked at google right?

That would make for it yeah. Also probably he is older than he looks like (in fact in recent pictures he does).

A million dollars isn’t that much in the scheme of things.  That’s half a house in Vancouver, Canada.   Probably a third of a house in Silicon Valley.   It’s not even a downpayment in London unless you are an hour from the City.

It's not that much if you need to be in one of those places you listed. Where, if you are, you will be paid well enough to be able to afford it (out of necessity) but will still only have a lifestyle on par with someone making 1/5th of your salary elsewhere. A really comfortable retirement starting at age 30 only requires about 2 million though. So it's not that a million is a small amount of money so much as it's that the particular examples you gave are WAY overpriced. For reference you need about 7 million dollars in assets to be in the american 1% and about 3 million to be in the global 1% (those figures assume that you have only assets and no income).

But yea there is a sense in which you are absolutely right. A lot of very financially illiterate people have very bad misconceptions about what a million dollars means. They will play a lottery that promises to pay out a million dollars and think if they could just win than they could live like an elite and never have to work again, which of course is not even close to accurate. It's also why everyone who wins the lottery blows through it all in a couple years, they think they won WAY more than they actually did.

Still, having a net worth over 1 million with less than 30 years is a great start. And not something that usual even if there are places where $X00.000 salaries are frequent.

The other day I was reading some article that states that there are many people making those salaries and living from paycheck to paycheck with almost no savings beyond 401k. Here is the article: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/06/budget-breakdown-of-a-couple-that-makes-500000-a-year-but-cant-save.html

I supposse there must be a lot of exaggeration and sensationalism in it, but still..... The biggest joke in that "budget" is buying the car with credit....

If their only investment is their house and their 401k, they seem to have considerable room for savings and investment in other things such as bitcoin.  They are in no fucking way struggling with 3 vacations a year at $18k, for example, and also each of them is maximizing their 401k, which seems to be pretty smart and a decent set up for continued prosperity, too.  They would be able to do quite well with even 1/3 of that salary, between two peeps.

Yes there is a lot of fat in there that can be cut. $18k a year on charitable donations beyond their means.  Likewise they don’t need a 5 series as their second car and the kids expenses seem a bit out there.  Their life insurance looks awfully cheap though.  

Also tax must be calculated wrong.  They don’t pay 40% on all of it, only the bits in top bracket.

Yes.   I think that part of the point that I was attempting to make, and your further analysis seems to support, is that any kind of assertion that they are living "paycheck to paycheck" rises to the level of absurd.  O.k.  perhaps they are spending everything on a monthly basis, but that might only signify that when they write it all out, at the end of the year, they have approximately accounted for all of their spending, and why they don't have hardly anything left to buy bitcoins..... if buying bitcoins, for example, were to be one of their investment goals.

Of course, even some of the other expenditures, besides 401k and mortgage could be considered investments - investing in yourself for vacations can be a kind of learning and investing in kids would not necessarily be a bad thing if the kids did not end up being some kind of wasted outcome (which usually would not be the case in even the worst cases of snotty-nosed whiney and unproductive kid outcomes).  For example, if the kid ends up murdering the parents or in some other way destroying the reputation and/or other assets of the family, then the parents might have considered that kid to have been a "bad" investment, perhaps?

[buyandhold]

Exit all Lambos.

[Ibian]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Richest_Man_in_Babylon_(book)

Good for beginers, but it's not a revelation for most of us here.

I'm not so much interested in what might be learned from this book as in how it tries to teach. Humans are emotional animals way before we are rational ones, and stories make learning easier.

I fucking hated school, because it was dry and boring and, looking back, unemotional. Humans need to feel, even when studying. We can do better, and we have to do better, or we are fucked for hundreds of years.

[JayJuanGee]

2. Who gives a XXXX

we use a thing called language here...it is for communicating

bye bye

Oh come on. That's a bit harsh. Take it easy.  
"crypto is electronic currency" and my personal welcome "Your welcome" already made my day.
Apparently the previous IQ discussion is still relevant. Legendary...

To be fair, menace has been teetering on the edge for a while.

It is pretty amazing how effectively some people are able to demonstrate the abrasive nature of their personality in a few lines of text.

Thanks for the heads up

did not realize it come across that way

time for a reality check, do not want to be abrasive


2. Instead of Who gives a XXXX, I Should of typed

who cares?

lol

I understand again apologies

I think "who gives a fuck?" is fine, depending on the tone and the emphasis that you intend to provide.

If you later concede that you did not intend such tone or emphasis, then so be it... Any of us can make those kinds of mistakes.. seems to me.

I am sure the board can handle a few here and there, but the rules do need to be implemented.

I like jojo69 response to a question about mtgox in 2012 manipulating the market

"Who cares" is a much better response to the question of my spelling their instead of there.

anyhow amazing coincidence at the time, a discussion on mtgox bankruptcy manipulating sell offs was happening and here I am quoting jojo69 and the thread was the same manipulation mtgox was doing in 2012

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=58848.msg693795#msg693795

Seems that you are making two main points in your above response post:

1) regarding word choice, and whether there might be better or worse ways to make your point:   If you make your post in a kind of rash, then in those situations, you might make mistakes regarding your word choice, and sometimes, you may go back to your post and consider that your word choice is not fitting for what you were attempting to communicate.  Even though, from time to time, I am criticized for my word choice, including the length of my posts, there are pretty rare times that I would either change the post or go back to rewrite the post, because the vast majority of the times, my word choices are what I chose at the time and are reflective of my then thoughts on the topic. 

In the end, I think that the point is that each of us makes a choice about how much to edit or reread our posts before we hit "post." So, there is a considerable amount of personal discretion there, including the discretion to modify our posting practices.

2) ongoing mtgox manipulation:  This subject matter of mtgox manipulation comes off as another one of those distracting and misleading talking points that seems to infiltrate into a lot of discussions, including discussions by seemingly smart people who are finding a pattern or attempting to find a pattern.  I remain of the "who gives a shit" perspective on this particular talking point.  Sure, you can include mtgox into your analysis, but it remains one of many factors that seems retrospectively over-hyped.  For example, when the trustee first began to sell coins between December and February, those sales were not getting too much publicity, but after the fact, they are being described as if they were in the public consciousness at the time of the initial dumps and able to affect the price.  I remain of the perspective that there was so much trade volume between December and January that the mtgox coin dumps were quite unlikely to have any kind of meaningful effect, but such supposed effect has been exaggerated after the fact in order to attempt to get affect on the current price dynamics,  and in order to attempt to shake some additional weak hands of their bitcoins.

[KyleSpades]

Aren't some of these seasonality cycle narratives a bit ridiculous?


Sure, I do not mind seeing the various comparisons as a thought process, yet frequently there seems to be way to much attempt to hype a cycle as if it exists, likely pumps or dumps every year at certain months, too... the latest of which was the suggestions of pumps at the end of the calendar year and dumps at the beginning of the calendar year.

Part of my point is that there may be some of these kinds of coincidences, but the reality remains that circumstances surrounding bitcoin are changing all the time, and there may be momentum in one direction or another direction at any time, but bitcoin is never at the same point in a river, at any time, even though the upcoming curve might seem similar.

#/take these bitcoin seasonal cycle claims with a decently large grain of salt/#

People should pin what you said on exchanges' homepages. It would save the newbies some money and make things a little harder (or less easy, so to speak) for the big fishes.

[Anon136]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Richest_Man_in_Babylon_(book)

Good for beginers, but it's not a revelation for most of us here.

I'm not so much interested in what might be learned from this book as in how it tries to teach. Humans are emotional animals way before we are rational ones, and stories make learning easier.

I fucking hated school, because it was dry and boring and, looking back, unemotional. Humans need to feel, even when studying. We can do better, and we have to do better, or we are fucked for hundreds of years.

Thanks for the suggestion. I went ahead and purchased it on audable. It was like $2.01 after taxes. I'll listen to it after I finish American Gods.

[Ibian]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Richest_Man_in_Babylon_(book)

Good for beginers, but it's not a revelation for most of us here.

I'm not so much interested in what might be learned from this book as in how it tries to teach. Humans are emotional animals way before we are rational ones, and stories make learning easier.

I fucking hated school, because it was dry and boring and, looking back, unemotional. Humans need to feel, even when studying. We can do better, and we have to do better, or we are fucked for hundreds of years.

Thanks for the suggestion. I went ahead and purchased it on audable. It was like $2.01 after taxes. I'll listen to it after I finish American Gods.

And so by sharing freely wealth is created for others. As it should be. Why can the state not do the same?

[Anon136]

And so by sharing freely wealth is created for others. As it should be. Why can the state not do the same?

I feel like this is trick question. Because then it wouldn't be "the state"?

[mymenace]

2. Who gives a XXXX

we use a thing called language here...it is for communicating

bye bye

Oh come on. That's a bit harsh. Take it easy.  
"crypto is electronic currency" and my personal welcome "Your welcome" already made my day.
Apparently the previous IQ discussion is still relevant. Legendary...

To be fair, menace has been teetering on the edge for a while.

It is pretty amazing how effectively some people are able to demonstrate the abrasive nature of their personality in a few lines of text.

Thanks for the heads up

did not realize it come across that way

time for a reality check, do not want to be abrasive


2. Instead of Who gives a XXXX, I Should of typed

who cares?

lol

I understand again apologies

I think "who gives a fuck?" is fine, depending on the tone and the emphasis that you intend to provide.

If you later concede that you did not intend such tone or emphasis, then so be it... Any of us can make those kinds of mistakes.. seems to me.

I am sure the board can handle a few here and there, but the rules do need to be implemented.

I like jojo69 response to a question about mtgox in 2012 manipulating the market

"Who cares" is a much better response to the question of my spelling their instead of there.

anyhow amazing coincidence at the time, a discussion on mtgox bankruptcy manipulating sell offs was happening and here I am quoting jojo69 and the thread was the same manipulation mtgox was doing in 2012

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=58848.msg693795#msg693795

Seems that you are making two main points in your above response post:

1) regarding word choice, and whether there might be better or worse ways to make your point:   If you make your post in a kind of rash, then in those situations, you might make mistakes regarding your word choice, and sometimes, you may go back to your post and consider that your word choice is not fitting for what you were attempting to communicate.  Even though, from time to time, I am criticized for my word choice, including the length of my posts, there are pretty rare times that I would either change the post or go back to rewrite the post, because the vast majority of the times, my word choices are what I chose at the time and are reflective of my then thoughts on the topic.  

In the end, I think that the point is that each of us makes a choice about how much to edit or reread our posts before we hit "post." So, there is a considerable amount of personal discretion there, including the discretion to modify our posting practices.

2) ongoing mtgox manipulation:  This subject matter of mtgox manipulation comes off as another one of those distracting and misleading talking points that seems to infiltrate into a lot of discussions, including discussions by seemingly smart people who are finding a pattern or attempting to find a pattern.  I remain of the "who gives a shit" perspective on this particular talking point.  Sure, you can include mtgox into your analysis, but it remains one of many factors that seems retrospectively over-hyped.  For example, when the trustee first began to sell coins between December and February, those sales were not getting too much publicity, but after the fact, they are being described as if they were in the public consciousness at the time of the initial dumps and able to affect the price.  I remain of the perspective that there was so much trade volume between December and January that the mtgox coin dumps were quite unlikely to have any kind of meaningful effect, but such supposed effect has been exaggerated after the fact in order to attempt to get affect on the current price dynamics,  and in order to attempt to shake some additional weak hands of their bitcoins.

Yep I know what you mean

finding it very hard to comprehend narratives about the just and legal way courts, ministers and legal authorities are affecting the market.

One reason Bitcoin was created because the banks around the world stole everyone's money 2008 GFC

yet here we are quoting these authorities as gospel

With so much corruption it is easy to ascertain what those in position of market manipulation are doing, they nearly all tied at the hip and benefiting of each others knowledge

Panama Papers

No tender Downer AUS Ambassador and Clinton trade practices

and it goes on and on.

Yet hardly anyone is able to imagine a narrative of Jamie dimon JP Morgan and the japanese finance minister colluding to get cheap coins for their friends.

It is the obvious solution to how the market played out.

Not that I am concerned the narrative is accepted, just sharing for anyone, it is good for me cause selling when need and buy the dip

[buyandhold]

Periodic hit-piece from some Dow Jones-owned rag.
https://www.fnlondon.com/articles/financial-heavyweights-pour-scorn-on-bitcoin-20180521

[mymenace]

Periodic hit-piece from some Dow Jones-owned rag.
https://www.fnlondon.com/articles/financial-heavyweights-pour-scorn-on-bitcoin-20180521

Yet good to use as a money transfer

Don't invest in Bitcoin, use it as a means of money transfer: Mark Mobius

..." I say I am both because I can see the need for this transmission system but I do not see it as a store value, it is not a store value ".....

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/expert-view/dont-invest-in-bitcoin-use-it-as-a-means-of-money-transfer-mark-mobius/articleshow/61995138.cms


Nice way to transfer large sums of money, not like you want bitcoin to go away


Need cheap coins for your friends


buy the dip