Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Jomppe]

what would cause that stamp and gox are somewhat closer together %-wise vs what they were before this down move?

I don't know but currently selling in stamp, because it gives better relative value...

Good luck finding fool who will cash out at $350. Wait maybe he is comming. :-)

The ones who are going to cash out will do obcviously from 500 all the way to current level. The rest selling pressure comes from the paniquers who are afraid of BTC falling all the way to 50 USD/BTC - they will be the ones who opress the price to 300 dollarish-levels.

You're sounding more like Nostradamus with every post 

Well, you know the feeling when you have been buying coins instead of selling at 500-700 dollars and then the price starts dropping to 450, then quickly to 400, then 350 and then 320 quickly. You know, in this position the coin holders feel like there is a bottomless pit the coin will be sinking and it is better of selling them now for 320 while someone is still willing to pay this amount from my coinz.

[Odalv]

what would cause that stamp and gox are somewhat closer together %-wise vs what they were before this down move?

I don't know but currently selling in stamp, because it gives better relative value...

Good luck finding fool who will cash out at $350. Wait maybe he is comming. :-)

The ones who are going to cash out will do obcviously from 500 all the way to current level. The rest selling pressure comes from the paniquers who are afraid of BTC falling all the way to 50 USD/BTC - they will be the ones who opress the price to 300 dollarish-levels.

You're sounding more like Nostradamus with every post 

Well, you know the feeling when you have been buying coins instead of selling at 500-700 dollars and then the price starts dropping to 450, then quickly to 400, then 350 and then 320 quickly. You know, in this position the coin holders feel like there is a bottomless pit the coin will be sinking and it is better of selling them now for 320 while someone is still willing to pay this amount from my coinz.

Seems you forgot we had double top at $1240 ... this sellers want rebuy too.

[Jomppe]

what would cause that stamp and gox are somewhat closer together %-wise vs what they were before this down move?

I don't know but currently selling in stamp, because it gives better relative value...

Good luck finding fool who will cash out at $350. Wait maybe he is comming. :-)

The ones who are going to cash out will do obcviously from 500 all the way to current level. The rest selling pressure comes from the paniquers who are afraid of BTC falling all the way to 50 USD/BTC - they will be the ones who opress the price to 300 dollarish-levels.

You're sounding more like Nostradamus with every post 

Well, you know the feeling when you have been buying coins instead of selling at 500-700 dollars and then the price starts dropping to 450, then quickly to 400, then 350 and then 320 quickly. You know, in this position the coin holders feel like there is a bottomless pit the coin will be sinking and it is better of selling them now for 320 while someone is still willing to pay this amount from my coinz.

Seems you forgot we had double top at $1240 ... this sellers want rebuy too.

Don't you think they have bought already?

[Odalv]

what would cause that stamp and gox are somewhat closer together %-wise vs what they were before this down move?

I don't know but currently selling in stamp, because it gives better relative value...

Good luck finding fool who will cash out at $350. Wait maybe he is comming. :-)

The ones who are going to cash out will do obcviously from 500 all the way to current level. The rest selling pressure comes from the paniquers who are afraid of BTC falling all the way to 50 USD/BTC - they will be the ones who opress the price to 300 dollarish-levels.

You're sounding more like Nostradamus with every post 

Well, you know the feeling when you have been buying coins instead of selling at 500-700 dollars and then the price starts dropping to 450, then quickly to 400, then 350 and then 320 quickly. You know, in this position the coin holders feel like there is a bottomless pit the coin will be sinking and it is better of selling them now for 320 while someone is still willing to pay this amount from my coinz.

Seems you forgot we had double top at $1240 ... this sellers want rebuy too.

Don't you think they have bought already?

Don't you think they sold already ?

[Jomppe]

what would cause that stamp and gox are somewhat closer together %-wise vs what they were before this down move?

I don't know but currently selling in stamp, because it gives better relative value...

Good luck finding fool who will cash out at $350. Wait maybe he is comming. :-)

The ones who are going to cash out will do obcviously from 500 all the way to current level. The rest selling pressure comes from the paniquers who are afraid of BTC falling all the way to 50 USD/BTC - they will be the ones who opress the price to 300 dollarish-levels.

You're sounding more like Nostradamus with every post 

Well, you know the feeling when you have been buying coins instead of selling at 500-700 dollars and then the price starts dropping to 450, then quickly to 400, then 350 and then 320 quickly. You know, in this position the coin holders feel like there is a bottomless pit the coin will be sinking and it is better of selling them now for 320 while someone is still willing to pay this amount from my coinz.

Seems you forgot we had double top at $1240 ... this sellers want rebuy too.

Don't you think they have bought already?

Don't you think they sold already ?

Well some of them might have been sold a bit already but for those of them who haven't sold, I am encouraging them to sell in case of price drop like Reptila is declaring here. He has done good job in analyzing and I cannot simply ignore his research as unvalid, of course there is a probability he is wrong but based on his track record and stash of money, he must have been more often right than wrong.
You judge yourself.
As I told, I made my decision and sold 90 % of my BTC holdings and planning rebuy only if the price drops significiantly from this point - if not I do not have stop-loss set and I will cry the opportunity cost of betting agains BitCoin for short/midlong term.

[Peter R]

Don't you think they have bought already?

Don't you think they sold already ?

Well I've sold, then bought, and then sold (just my trading coins).  

I'm hoping to calmly buy in the $500s but I'll probably panic buy in the $900s.  

[T.Stuart]

Long term perspective is generally even more difficult to predict. Based on how peak/correction cycles played out historically, I would be extremely surprised if we've already seen the end of the correction. Late January/Early February is more likely based on how previous corrections played out wrt time. Price targets are difficult because it all depends on whether the December 18 low was really the bottom, or just an intermediate step in a larger more forceful downtrend, or alternatively, a long drawn out decline. I still see the possibility that daily SMA100 was active as support on that crash, and the final capitulation will be higher than the low of December 18, but that's not a strong conviction I hold, at best an informed guess.

It doesn't seem like you've factored in the kinds of changes - "mass-adoption" (or at least evolving mass-awareness thanks to increased media coverage), developing services, etc. - that have led to some calling this the "tipping point" for Bitcoin. Of course it is impossible to give precise mathematical indicators in this respect but qualitatively speaking things are not the same now as they were historically. That said, the December 18 low of $450 fits well in comparison with history.

[T.Stuart]

what would cause that stamp and gox are somewhat closer together %-wise vs what they were before this down move?

I don't know but currently selling in stamp, because it gives better relative value...

Good luck finding fool who will cash out at $350. Wait maybe he is comming. :-)

The ones who are going to cash out will do obcviously from 500 all the way to current level. The rest selling pressure comes from the paniquers who are afraid of BTC falling all the way to 50 USD/BTC - they will be the ones who opress the price to 300 dollarish-levels.

You're sounding more like Nostradamus with every post 

Well, you know the feeling when you have been buying coins instead of selling at 500-700 dollars and then the price starts dropping to 450, then quickly to 400, then 350 and then 320 quickly. You know, in this position the coin holders feel like there is a bottomless pit the coin will be sinking and it is better of selling them now for 320 while someone is still willing to pay this amount from my coinz.

Seems you forgot we had double top at $1240 ... this sellers want rebuy too.

Don't you think they have bought already?

Don't you think they sold already ?

Well some of them might have been sold a bit already but for those of them who haven't sold, I am encouraging them to sell in case of price drop like Reptila is declaring here. He has done good job in analyzing and I cannot simply ignore his research as unvalid, of course there is a probability he is wrong but based on his track record and stash of money, he must have been more often right than wrong.
You judge yourself.
As I told, I made my decision and sold 90 % of my BTC holdings and planning rebuy only if the price drops significiantly from this point - if not I do not have stop-loss set and I will cry the opportunity cost of betting agains BitCoin for short/midlong term.

So if people don't panic sell their coins into your lap you'll be pissed off, right?

[Jomppe]

what would cause that stamp and gox are somewhat closer together %-wise vs what they were before this down move?

I don't know but currently selling in stamp, because it gives better relative value...

Good luck finding fool who will cash out at $350. Wait maybe he is comming. :-)

The ones who are going to cash out will do obcviously from 500 all the way to current level. The rest selling pressure comes from the paniquers who are afraid of BTC falling all the way to 50 USD/BTC - they will be the ones who opress the price to 300 dollarish-levels.

You're sounding more like Nostradamus with every post 

Well, you know the feeling when you have been buying coins instead of selling at 500-700 dollars and then the price starts dropping to 450, then quickly to 400, then 350 and then 320 quickly. You know, in this position the coin holders feel like there is a bottomless pit the coin will be sinking and it is better of selling them now for 320 while someone is still willing to pay this amount from my coinz.

Seems you forgot we had double top at $1240 ... this sellers want rebuy too.

Don't you think they have bought already?

Don't you think they sold already ?

Well some of them might have been sold a bit already but for those of them who haven't sold, I am encouraging them to sell in case of price drop like Reptila is declaring here. He has done good job in analyzing and I cannot simply ignore his research as unvalid, of course there is a probability he is wrong but based on his track record and stash of money, he must have been more often right than wrong.
You judge yourself.
As I told, I made my decision and sold 90 % of my BTC holdings and planning rebuy only if the price drops significiantly from this point - if not I do not have stop-loss set and I will cry the opportunity cost of betting agains BitCoin for short/midlong term.

So if people don't panic sell their coins into your lap you'll be pissed off, right?

Of course, but then I have a handful of cash though which is also nice thing to have these days. 

[ag@th0s]

Let's go through a number of points how this is going to resolve. First, if you don't mention time frames, your analysis fails already, so I'll crudely break this down into short and long term.

Short term (say, this weekend, plus next week) I see:
a) several relevant short-to-medium term trends are active, among them 6h EMA30 (that performs extremely well in my backtests on recent data). Price remains above that one, as well as the quicker hourly EMA150. For a slightly slower perspective, 1d EMA30, i.e. the 1 month trend line is a focal point: price hovers just above it. I don't want to claim it provides support, not enough volume for that, but we should see if it holds in the next days.
b) bid/ask ratio is going down right now across all exchanges. That's usually a bearish sign, but in combination with a stagnating price, it's less drastic in my experience.
c) by a (relatively) crude method I use, based on a mean of the volume-weighted price of the peak and low of the most recent price swing, we're *right* on top of that mean. Similarly to my point about 1d EMA30, that's leads to a rather unsatisfactory "it could swing either way, but the next days should resolve it one way or the other".

Long term perspective is generally even more difficult to predict. Based on how peak/correction cycles played out historically, I would be extremely surprised if we've already seen the end of the correction. Late January/Early February is more likely based on how previous corrections played out wrt time. Price targets are difficult because it all depends on whether the December 18 low was really the bottom, or just an intermediate step in a larger more forceful downtrend, or alternatively, a long drawn out decline. I still see the possibility that daily SMA100 was active as support on that crash, and the final capitulation will be higher than the low of December 18, but that's not a strong conviction I hold, at best an informed guess.

So, blah blah blah Short term - "it could swing either way, but the next days should resolve it one way or the other".
And blah blah blah Long Term - "Long term perspective is generally even more difficult to predict."

Great. Thx.  And you have the balls to slag rpietila off

[T.Stuart]

So if people don't panic sell their coins into your lap you'll be pissed off, right?

Of course, but then I have a handful of cash though which is also nice thing to have these days. 
[/quote]

Thank you for your refreshing honesty! An honest FUD-spreader, ladies and gentlemen!

[Walsoraj]

Don't know whether to sodl or hodl? The answer is always: buy more Dogecoin.

[Parazyd]

Bitcoin became too big to die

[Jomppe]

So if people don't panic sell their coins into your lap you'll be pissed off, right?

Of course, but then I have a handful of cash though which is also nice thing to have these days. 

Thank you for your refreshing honesty! An honest FUD-spreader, ladies and gentlemen!
[/quote]

Actually I might be interested in buying conservatively at 400-levels but aggressive in 300-levels.
If it will not get there I let it be.

[Parazyd]

Quitting mining?

[macsga]

Interesting read:
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/12/28/bitcoin-is-evil/?smid=tw-NytimesKrugman&seid=auto&_r=1&

Even more interesting though, are the comments of the readers. Am I the only one here that thinks that Krugman is paid to stand for fiat money? His arguments find me completely indifferent.

I have had and am continuing to have a dialogue with smart technologists who are very high on BitCoin — but when I try to get them to explain to me why BitCoin is a reliable store of value, they always seem to come back with explanations about how it’s a terrific medium of exchange. Even if I buy this (which I don’t, entirely), it doesn’t solve my problem. And I haven’t been able to get my correspondents to recognize that these are different questions.

Heh... probably talking to the wrong people (intentionally that is...).

[NewLiberty]

Rpietila seems a reputable in his views.
I think we all should read his writings, learn him, try to figure out his mood and based on this, sell or buy coins.
The price will go quite low if we can trust him - usually we can. He made his bearish call correctly last time while all were laughing at his face, spitting on him and considering him as slain of God, the man of sorrows, the friend of pains etc.

After all, he made his trades and tons of money. Now those of you who do not follow his paths right now will loose as the price eventually crashes.
He is making money so why shouldn't I do it with him? I hope you guys here are also in the same boat with me. It is not that difficult to turn from bull to bear. I did it after I found Rpietila did it also.  

Sounds like legit advice.

I'd totally be down for some bitcoin tarding again, but I hodl because I'm trying to put myself in a good position to pay long term capital gains (best, reasonable, compliance case) without any possible complications and obligation by having any USD or BTC on foreign exchanges.  

Given the position I'm trying to get into for compliance, short term tarding would just be foolish.  Add to that that I think by the time I'm ready to liquidate a significant portion they'll be worth more than they are today, I'm hodling, hodling from bitcoin tarding.

So true, on average, most lose by short term tarding.  
Its like poker in a casino.  
If you look around the table and can't figure out who is the patsy, you're the patsy.  
You have to know a lot, or be lucky, to be half decent.

If you're a US citizen and you're trading with more than $10k, and haven't considered the implications of foreign exchange and tax implications of realizing profit, etc, good luck.

This is a tricky element, and was touched on earlier this year in an article on taxes and accounts in foreign jurisdictions: http://bitcoinmagazine.com/5481/real-compliance-getting-your-way-by-giving-in/
Though the author may not have looked at everything as it was just before the FBAR deadline.
http://www.fincen.gov/news_room/nr/pdf/20110717.pdf

One might further consider just where the bitcoins are?  They are in the US as well as the blockchain is where they always are.
Looking deeper at some of the FinCEN elements might suggest that it is the control of the asset, which with Bitcoin would be the credentials (private key) moving across jurisdictions.
This is shown as absurd as it would then apply to anyone who's signature would be worth amounts over US$10K traveling abroad.
The precedent for such a ruling would be thin gruel.

This probably isn't the place for discussing it, other than whether or not US folks will sell/buy/hold based on such taxation consequences may be distorting the market.  Probably not much.

[dgarcia]

Don't know whether to sodl or hodl? The answer is always: buy more Dogecoin.

:-)

[Walsoraj]

Interesting read:
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/12/28/bitcoin-is-evil/?smid=tw-NytimesKrugman&seid=auto&_r=1&

Even more interesting though, are the comments of the readers. Am I the only one here that thinks that Krugman is paid to stand for fiat money? His arguments find me completely indifferent.

I have had and am continuing to have a dialogue with smart technologists who are very high on BitCoin — but when I try to get them to explain to me why BitCoin is a reliable store of value, they always seem to come back with explanations about how it’s a terrific medium of exchange. Even if I buy this (which I don’t, entirely), it doesn’t solve my problem. And I haven’t been able to get my correspondents to recognize that these are different questions.

Heh... probably talking to the wrong people (intentionally that is...).

Yea, an intelligent and honest bitcoiner would explain to Krugman that bitcoin currently has value because it is the ultimate chain letter.

Sources:

• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chain_letter
• investors driven almost solely by greed
• early adopters dogmatically encouraging others to get in before it is too late
• frequent usage of terms like "cashing out"
• obsession over bitcoin's value in terms of fiat
• observations of daily altcoin pumps
• review of forum posts from years ago to date, documenting pumps and other methods of price manipulation of bitcoin that reflect exactly what is going on with current altcoins
• common sense
• 

[granathus]

Don't know whether to sodl or hodl? The answer is always: buy more Dogecoin.

To the moon!