Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[BitChick]

You composition actually makes the rate at which BTC increases dependent on the rate at which USD decreases. Was that what you had in mind?

The BTC exchange rate depends on two related but independent factors: it's inherent utility growth due to increased adoption, and the simultaneous degradation in the USD which it is referenced to.

I agree with Peter R.'s "rationalization" of a super exponential function above (I agree, even though I don't really *believe* in it), but I don't agree with what you're saying. if btc adoption growing exponentially towards infinity (f) and usd degradation exponentially decreasing towards 0 (g) are independent of each other, as you stipulate, what you're looking for, price p as f over g, is
f(x)=e^x
g(x)=1/h^x
p(x)=(e^x)/(1/(h^x))=(e^x)*(h^x)=eh^x
It's late and I'm midly drunk , so by all means tell me where you think i went wrong.

Wow.  I have never been drunk and I can't even begin to do the math that some of you can do in a slightly drunken state.  Impressive 

[MANofthePEOPLE]

Guys, just wanted to let you know it's going up now. I just sold and following the recent trends I always make bad trades

[wachtwoord]

Wow.  I have never been drunk and I can't even begin to do the math that some of you can do in a slightly drunken state.  Impressive 

Never? Wow ..

BitChicksHusband, get on that!

[BitChick]

Wow.  I have never been drunk and I can't even begin to do the math that some of you can do in a slightly drunken state.  Impressive 

Never? Wow ..

BitChicksHusband, get on that!

The math or the drinking?  He is great at math!  But he is not a drinker either.

[macsga]

Wow.  I have never been drunk and I can't even begin to do the math that some of you can do in a slightly drunken state.  Impressive 

Never? Wow ..

BitChicksHusband, get on that!

The math or the drinking?  He is great at math!  But he is not a drinker either.

One cannot be great at math and NOT being a drinker...

[wachtwoord]

Wow.  I have never been drunk and I can't even begin to do the math that some of you can do in a slightly drunken state.  Impressive 

Never? Wow ..

BitChicksHusband, get on that!

The math or the drinking?  He is great at math!  But he is not a drinker either.

Everyone should have been drunk at least once in their life.

I'm not drunk often btw (last time was a year ago) but I do like a drink now and then.

[wachtwoord]

You composition actually makes the rate at which BTC increases dependent on the rate at which USD decreases. Was that what you had in mind?

The BTC exchange rate depends on two related but independent factors: it's inherent utility growth due to increased adoption, and the simultaneous degradation in the USD which it is referenced to.

I agree with Peter R.'s "rationalization" of a super exponential function above (I agree, even though I don't really *believe* in it), but I don't agree with what you're saying. if btc adoption growing exponentially towards infinity (f) and usd degradation exponentially decreasing towards 0 (g) are independent of each other, as you stipulate, what you're looking for, price p as f over g, is
f(x)=e^x
g(x)=1/h^x
p(x)=(e^x)/(1/(h^x))=(e^x)*(h^x)=eh^x
It's late and I'm midly drunk , so by all means tell me where you think i went wrong.

what is e and h?

e is Euler's number. Not sure about h.

[Walsoraj]

Wow.  I have never been drunk and I can't even begin to do the math that some of you can do in a slightly drunken state.  Impressive  

Never? Wow ..

BitChicksHusband, get on that!

The math or the drinking?  He is great at math!  But he is not a drinker either.

Everyone should have been drunk at least once in their life.

I'm not drunk often btw (last time was a year ago) but I do like a drink now and then.

My drinking pals call me the absinthe fish.

[justusranvier]

Placeholder variable/function.

[TERA]

Wow.  I have never been drunk and I can't even begin to do the math that some of you can do in a slightly drunken state.  Impressive  

Never? Wow ..

BitChicksHusband, get on that!

The math or the drinking?  He is great at math!  But he is not a drinker either.

One cannot be great at math and NOT being a drinker...

I was a math/physics prodigy until I started drinking.  Now all I can do is draw squiggly lines on charts and say dx/dt = to-da-moon and 1{n (y) = crash.

[macsga]

Wow.  I have never been drunk and I can't even begin to do the math that some of you can do in a slightly drunken state.  Impressive  

Never? Wow ..

BitChicksHusband, get on that!

The math or the drinking?  He is great at math!  But he is not a drinker either.

One cannot be great at math and NOT being a drinker...

I was a math/physics prodigy until I started drinking.  Now all I can do is draw squiggly lines on charts and say dx/dt = to-da-moon and 1{n (y) = crash.

yeah, same here... to da m00n ch00ch00

Goodnight people!!!

[kurious]

[sarcasm]This means that we will eventually approach a singularity where the bitcoin price becomes infinite.  The only way for this to happen is for the USD to go to zero as well.[/sarcasm]

There are two possible outcomes for Bitcoin.

Either it fails completely, or else this happens. There is no stable equilibrium between those two extremes.

I do not agree.  Unless that is your timescale is hundreds of years.

Hmmm....

BTC, logically will have no price at all if the dollar falls to zero, the way we currently calibrate its value at least.

And a zero price would mean a near total collapse of the existing system which would be such an upheaval that all bets would be off.   If BTC (and not some other trading medium) remained it would be pure chance as chaos would have to have existed before this happened.

I am with Goat on this - we cannot extrapolate that far, and BTC and the dollar are not simply the only two players in a a winner-takes-all game.

That is (imho) nonsencical.

It is much more complex than that.

EDIT: Why is a (if variable within reason) equilibrium not possible?

[kurious]

equilibrium (even with fluctuation) is realistic.

there are somethings that the usd is better for and some things btc is better for. one will not kill off the other any time soon.

500 years from now? sure... gold might be the thing again by then, lol.

Agreed - but let me run this by you, it's been bugging me:


Digital currency - in the form of neutral, non-centralised and trustworthy value transfer systems make sense.

But whether BTC is Myspace and not Facebook, or AltaVista and not Google is a moot point.

Change will come, yes - but Bitcoin is a pioneer and something better could well take advantage of the doors it opens.

A network of P2P value exchange is obviously necessary, but BTC is just showing what is possible, and the coin value is much less relevant than the actual network value (which cannot be bought).

We actually cannot (yet) buy what the value of this idea is, anymore than you can buy shares in the internet.   The real money is in the applications regular people can really use.

They are not there yet, they will be and this will 'make' bitcoin, but to be honest I am beginning to thing the price of a coin is really missing the point of what we are part of and I am seeking ways to invest in applications for this technology, not the coins which flow between the points of its' network.

Philosophical drivel maybe - but I do not here anyone here discussing this kind of 'future' when it seems patently obvious to me that we are not thinking what the applications riding on the network could actually do, and mean for the future.  Not just the 'price' of a coin.

[gandhibt]

Wow.  I have never been drunk and I can't even begin to do the math that some of you can do in a slightly drunken state.  Impressive  

Never? Wow ..

BitChicksHusband, get on that!

The math or the drinking?  He is great at math!  But he is not a drinker either.

One cannot be great at math and NOT being a drinker...

Lots of weed, you are shit in math when you're high, but rest of the time you're brilliant -> just don't smoke all the time and your math skills go to the moon I stopped drinking hard when I found my love to ganja

Back to the (supposed) topic?

Is 800 suddenly point of resistance now (on mtgox)? That could put a damper on this lil' trend of ours, no?

I don't say what will happen, but bearish approach now would be to say that this "mini rally" got us to 732 and strong resistance found from 730 when last time "mini rally" got us to 764 and resistance was found from 760. -> Fuel is going down and with this low volume speculators will get nervous and start selling hard after a while.

[gandhibt]

equilibrium (even with fluctuation) is realistic.

there are somethings that the usd is better for and some things btc is better for. one will not kill off the other any time soon.

500 years from now? sure... gold might be the thing again by then, lol.

Agreed - but let me run this by you, it's been bugging me:


Digital currency - in the form of neutral, non-centralised and trustworthy value transfer systems make sense.

But whether BTC is Myspace and not Facebook, or AltaVista and not Google is a moot point.

Change will come, yes - but Bitcoin is a pioneer and something better could well take advantage of the doors it opens.

A network of P2P value exchange is obviously necessary, but BTC is just showing what is possible, and the coin value is much less relevant than the actual network value (which cannot be bought).

We actually cannot (yet) buy what the value of this idea is, anymore than you can buy shares in the internet.   The real money is in the applications regular people can really use.

They are not there yet, they will be and this will 'make' bitcoin, but to be honest I am beginning to thing the price of a coin is really missing the point of what we are part of and I am seeking ways to invest in applications for this technology, not the coins which flow between the points of its' network.

Philosophical drivel maybe - but I do not here anyone here discussing this kind of 'future' when it seems patently obvious to me that we are not thinking what the applications riding on the network could actually do, and mean for the future.  Not just the 'price' of a coin.

yes but after ww3 we might be back to shiny rocks being the most advanced thing we have.


assuming we dont ww3 cryptocoins are unstoppable. its why i massively got in ltc.

would you say that now is still good time to invest in ltc or would it be wise to wait that it dips a bit?

[adamstgBit]

equilibrium (even with fluctuation) is realistic.

there are somethings that the usd is better for and some things btc is better for. one will not kill off the other any time soon.

500 years from now? sure... gold might be the thing again by then, lol.

Agreed - but let me run this by you, it's been bugging me:


Digital currency - in the form of neutral, non-centralised and trustworthy value transfer systems make sense.

But whether BTC is Myspace and not Facebook, or AltaVista and not Google is a moot point.

Change will come, yes - but Bitcoin is a pioneer and something better could well take advantage of the doors it opens.

A network of P2P value exchange is obviously necessary, but BTC is just showing what is possible, and the coin value is much less relevant than the actual network value (which cannot be bought).

We actually cannot (yet) buy what the value of this idea is, anymore than you can buy shares in the internet.   The real money is in the applications regular people can really use.

They are not there yet, they will be and this will 'make' bitcoin, but to be honest I am beginning to thing the price of a coin is really missing the point of what we are part of and I am seeking ways to invest in applications for this technology, not the coins which flow between the points of its' network.

Philosophical drivel maybe - but I do not here anyone here discussing this kind of 'future' when it seems patently obvious to me that we are not thinking what the applications riding on the network could actually do, and mean for the future.  Not just the 'price' of a coin.

yes but after ww3 we might be back to shiny rocks being the most advanced thing we have.


assuming we dont ww3 cryptocoins are unstoppable. its why i massively got in ltc.

would you say that now is still good time to invest in ltc or would it be wise to wait that it dips a bit?

invest in FTC!

[bclcjunkie]

dude you need to chill, risto may show off sometimes but that doesn't bother most of us. heck i don't even mind goat's showing off his lambo... but what i truly care about is what he has to say about bitcoin and his analysis... you on the other hand don't seem to add much value to this thread except empty rants without solid analysis or backing...
he even posted his trading dates, i'm surprised he wasted his time responding to you...  i usually just skip through your posts because i find them less useful, while on the other hand i bookmark risto's latest posts and check them daily...  now that doesn't mean i follow him blindly i just appreciate his contribution and know how to separate the wheat from the chaff...

P.S just so you know... he nailed the price pretty closely when china crashed...

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg4070558#msg4070558

If this consolidation continues for another week until Jan. 6th, bears are going to be treading on REALLY thin ice, imo.

Depends on the timeframe. Personally I expect the final capitulation in Feb +/- 1 month, so one week does not matter much. Perhaps there should be a different thread for people who trade on daily, weekly and monthly timeframe. Or less slander. If March passes without hitting $400, then the chances of seeing it again are slim.

Well my premise is this one. A lot of new fiat will be hitting the exchanges in January. People want to get in NOW given what happened between Jan to Dec of 2013. Especially if the slow trend up continues.

My timeframe is longer. Bitcoin has been around for 5 years, and it has always been a terrific enlightenment for those who have been ripe for it. The knowledge about bitcoin has grown exponentially and investment into it has grown exponentially. I expect this to continue and every year be on average 12 times more glorious (as it has been), until everybody uses bitcoin (which will happen in 2016-17 at this rate). Everything that has happened since 2009 is captured by the trend and its variations, and will be.

There has been some regularities in the growth that I have researched, some of it is published, some not. I believe knowing them gives an edge in trading, and so far it has proven to be good. I have several million dollars of my own money that I could use to purchase bitcoins but choose not to. Not at this price. I am taking a large, calculated risk, with entry points set according to mathematical model for the rest of the year. I even gave the average sell price a few posts ago. Now there is no need to comment that I am doing bad every time the price rises $10. You could as well post about how good I am doing for the reason that I always have more bitcoins than fiat anyway 

So, after smoking the best the world has to offer, I again feel that taking a break from this thread is in order.

See you at $500. And don't fall in the bull trap

RP what I don't get is if you truly truly believe your log charts of 12x growth every year then why even trade? You are risking tens of millions of dollars in order to make a few more tens of millions. Isn't there something more worthwhile of your time. Like maybe starting a foundation or something?

Because his ego needs feeding. A little humility would suit him.

I am not sure it is pride.  He is indeed a multi millionaire.  Most of us here, myself included are not.  He is in a position to use his wealth and BTC holdings to make more profits.  Is it prideful for him to make comments about what he is doing with his wealth and some of his strategies and what has worked for him?  I think many here are just envious.  I think the humble person will think that perhaps in a year or two, if BTC continues the growth that we are on, could be in a situation in which we have great wealth too.  We could come on the boards and share what knowledge we have gained and the "cigars" we are enjoying and everyone will rise up against us too.  Perhaps staying quiet and being more subtle, like Loaded or a few other big holders, is wise in that there is less angst against them, but Risto is just sharing his knowlege and experience and even his success with us and I personally really appreciate it.

OMG did you say sharing his knowledge ? you are kidding right ? the only knowledge he has regarding Bitcoin trading is how many Bitcoins he has.... all his calls were false the one he've got right were pure luck, it is like someone talking everyday for one month, what are the chances that he will be right? ah got it ? now don't tell me his long term calls were right! well wow guess what, no matter when you bought Bitcoin the last 5 years it turned out to be a hell of investment, you do not need any one to tell you that.

and yes I am so annoyed because each time he fuck up, he has to brag about his wealth instead of saying "oops I was wrong" this is ego not pride, and you know who does that people with weak personalities.

again, his only advantage is being an early adopter, and BTW when he knew about Bitcoin he might spent few thousands or ten of thousands USD, allot of people invested a kind of money that he never saw in his life before investing into Bitcoin and I am sure about it beacuse his kind is called "the new to money", he doesn't own money but money owns him

[hdbuck]

I don't say what will happen, but bearish approach now would be to say that this "mini rally" got us to 732 and strong resistance found from 730 when last time "mini rally" got us to 764 and resistance was found from 760. -> Fuel is going down and with this low volume speculators will get nervous and start selling hard after a while.

That's a nice point. Although it may also be counter balanced by a 'plausible?' increase of new adopters and thus demand from now on.

[Nolo]

equilibrium (even with fluctuation) is realistic.

there are somethings that the usd is better for and some things btc is better for. one will not kill off the other any time soon.

500 years from now? sure... gold might be the thing again by then, lol.

Agreed - but let me run this by you, it's been bugging me:


Digital currency - in the form of neutral, non-centralised and trustworthy value transfer systems make sense.

But whether BTC is Myspace and not Facebook, or AltaVista and not Google is a moot point.

Change will come, yes - but Bitcoin is a pioneer and something better could well take advantage of the doors it opens.

A network of P2P value exchange is obviously necessary, but BTC is just showing what is possible, and the coin value is much less relevant than the actual network value (which cannot be bought).

We actually cannot (yet) buy what the value of this idea is, anymore than you can buy shares in the internet.   The real money is in the applications regular people can really use.

They are not there yet, they will be and this will 'make' bitcoin, but to be honest I am beginning to thing the price of a coin is really missing the point of what we are part of and I am seeking ways to invest in applications for this technology, not the coins which flow between the points of its' network.

Philosophical drivel maybe - but I do not here anyone here discussing this kind of 'future' when it seems patently obvious to me that we are not thinking what the applications riding on the network could actually do, and mean for the future.  Not just the 'price' of a coin.

yes but after ww3 we might be back to shiny rocks being the most advanced thing we have.


assuming we dont ww3 cryptocoins are unstoppable. its why i massively got in ltc.

would you say that now is still good time to invest in ltc or would it be wise to wait that it dips a bit?

no idea, but when LTC was trading at like 1/10th of half a cent it looked like a good risk/reward opportunity.

My portfolio is 65%/35% BTC/LTC.  I am constantly arguing with myself as to how much more LTC I should buy.  It's higher risk but also higher reward.  I wouldn't be completely shocked if in the next few months we saw LTC hit .1BTC.  At the same time I wouldn't be shocked if it hit .02 again.  (I would not be happy with that, but I suppose its a real possibility)

[nanobrain]

equilibrium (even with fluctuation) is realistic.

there are somethings that the usd is better for and some things btc is better for. one will not kill off the other any time soon.

500 years from now? sure... gold might be the thing again by then, lol.

Agreed - but let me run this by you, it's been bugging me:


Digital currency - in the form of neutral, non-centralised and trustworthy value transfer systems make sense.

But whether BTC is Myspace and not Facebook, or AltaVista and not Google is a moot point.

Change will come, yes - but Bitcoin is a pioneer and something better could well take advantage of the doors it opens.

A network of P2P value exchange is obviously necessary, but BTC is just showing what is possible, and the coin value is much less relevant than the actual network value (which cannot be bought).

We actually cannot (yet) buy what the value of this idea is, anymore than you can buy shares in the internet.   The real money is in the applications regular people can really use.

They are not there yet, they will be and this will 'make' bitcoin, but to be honest I am beginning to thing the price of a coin is really missing the point of what we are part of and I am seeking ways to invest in applications for this technology, not the coins which flow between the points of its' network.

Philosophical drivel maybe - but I do not here anyone here discussing this kind of 'future' when it seems patently obvious to me that we are not thinking what the applications riding on the network could actually do, and mean for the future.  Not just the 'price' of a coin.

I think what you are highlighting there is the difference between creating wealth and extracting wealth....
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/dec/29/worlds-largest-economies-and-their-future
(not about Bitcoin but interesting in light of both your point and the opportunities which BTC offers.)

  A lot of the big investors (Li KaShing eg) have a similar philosophy.