Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Voodah]

Perhaps true.  But do not underestimate the ability of infrastructure to grow exponentially as well. 

I said it yesterday in the other post and I don't wanna be repeating myself but when talking about infrastructure I see two critical points: technology and bureaucracy.

Technology can in fact hold up (with a lot of capital and work, and other exchanges popping up to cover demand).

You cannot rush bureaucracy. You have 6 months to convince banks to process 100x the amount of money they process today, all the while trying to comply with as of yet unwritten or non-existant laws and regulations. You have to go up the chain link by link, and sweet talk every player in every country. Just not possible.

Also, consider, a 100x price implies 100x more fiat processing BUT it does not imply 100x of the technological aspect. Price discovery does not equal every-day use adoption.

tl;dr: technology might be able to cope; bureaucracy can not keep up.

[inbox]

Hey adam,
I know I don't post much, you might not even know i existed.

I had a competing bitcoin directory website bitcoiney.com which has been sold in the meantime.
Is there anyway you can vouch for me? I am being accused for fraud.

If anyone remembers me and my work, please come vouch for me here: http://www.reddit.com/r/mastercoin/comments/1u39ke/masterxchangecom_has_been_victim_of_an_aborted/cee7sux

[Voodah]

Hey adam,
I know I don't post much, you might not even know i existed.

I had a competing bitcoin directory website bitcoiney.com which has been sold in the meantime.
Is there anyway you can vouch for me? I am being accused for fraud.

If anyone remembers me and my work, please come vouch for me here: http://www.reddit.com/r/mastercoin/comments/1u39ke/masterxchangecom_has_been_victim_of_an_aborted/cee7sux

Let me say, you did not handle this well at all and it makes it very very hard to believe you.

You tried to double-spend what? Like 1000 MSC? That's like 200BTC .

I can hardly think of a reason why you would need to use such large numbers if you were simply trying to help and reporting vulnerabilities.

Careful with this guy.

[inbox]

Hey adam,
I know I don't post much, you might not even know i existed.

I had a competing bitcoin directory website bitcoiney.com which has been sold in the meantime.
Is there anyway you can vouch for me? I am being accused for fraud.

If anyone remembers me and my work, please come vouch for me here: http://www.reddit.com/r/mastercoin/comments/1u39ke/masterxchangecom_has_been_victim_of_an_aborted/cee7sux

Let me say, you did not handle this well at all and it makes it very very hard to believe you.

You tried to double-spend what? Like 1000 MSC? That's like 200BTC .

I can hardly think of a reason why you would need to use such large numbers if you were simply trying to help and reporting vulnerabilities.

Careful with this guy.

I didnt double spend, I accidentally found out about a bug in mastercoin-explorer.com which displayed fake msc balance. Just displayed, all other blockchains reported the correct balance.

[BitChick]

Perhaps true.  But do not underestimate the ability of infrastructure to grow exponentially as well.  

I said it yesterday in the other post and I don't wanna be repeating myself but when talking about infrastructure I see two critical points: technology and bureaucracy.

Technology can in fact hold up (with a lot of capital and work, and other exchanges popping up to cover demand).

You cannot rush bureaucracy. You have 6 months to convince banks to process 100x the amount of money they process today, all the while trying to comply with as of yet unwritten or non-existant laws and regulations. You have to go up the chain link by link, and sweet talk every player in every country. Just not possible.

Also, consider, a 100x price implies 100x more fiat processing BUT it does not imply 100x of the technological aspect. Price discovery does not equal every-day use adoption.

tl;dr: technology might be able to cope; bureaucracy can not keep up.

Since when does Bitcoin care about Bureaucracy?  

Not everyone will be cashing out coins.  Many will hold or trade them directly or use them independent of banks or whatever government "laws and regulations" are there.  It can slow down the process, sure.  But I would not be concerned about the growth of Bitcoin being a problem.  It will grow in spite of these difficulties.  Eventually countries will either have to accept the use of the currency or be left behind.

Then , at some point down the road, I personally think the growth will cause some panic by countries because they no longer have "control" then they will regulate the use of Bitcoin, or whatever crypto currency, by requiring a bar code on our hands or foreheads so that they can keep track of who is buying things. (which I will not take BTW) Call me crazy but it seems highly likely.

[Peter R]

Perhaps true.  But do not underestimate the ability of infrastructure to grow exponentially as well. 

I said it yesterday in the other post and I don't wanna be repeating myself but when talking about infrastructure I see two critical points: technology and bureaucracy.

Technology can in fact hold up (with a lot of capital and work, and other exchanges popping up to cover demand).

You cannot rush bureaucracy. You have 6 months to convince banks to process 100x the amount of money they process today, all the while trying to comply with as of yet unwritten or non-existant laws and regulations. You have to go up the chain link by link, and sweet talk every player in every country. Just not possible.

Also, consider, a 100x price implies 100x more fiat processing BUT it does not imply 100x of the technological aspect. Price discovery does not equal every-day use adoption.

tl;dr: technology might be able to cope; bureaucracy can not keep up.

I think Voodah makes good points here.  

Let me chime in with my two-cents: we can definitely hit $3,000+ with our current infrastructure and regulatory climate, but a lot has to happen if we're going to make an uberbull move to $40,000 - $100,000.  I think we need to wait for bitcoin ATMs to be deployed and operating at numerous major cities across the Western World (coming in 2014-2015?), and we need some way for the average guy with an eTrade account to get in on the game.  If these two things were in place, then I can see that when the media bitcoin blitz begins again, the infrastructure can meet new demand and the price can truly reach the oort cloud.  

[Walsoraj]

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/10_year

Over 3% and trending up. 

[Voodah]

Perhaps true.  But do not underestimate the ability of infrastructure to grow exponentially as well.  

I said it yesterday in the other post and I don't wanna be repeating myself but when talking about infrastructure I see two critical points: technology and bureaucracy.

Technology can in fact hold up (with a lot of capital and work, and other exchanges popping up to cover demand).

You cannot rush bureaucracy. You have 6 months to convince banks to process 100x the amount of money they process today, all the while trying to comply with as of yet unwritten or non-existant laws and regulations. You have to go up the chain link by link, and sweet talk every player in every country. Just not possible.

Also, consider, a 100x price implies 100x more fiat processing BUT it does not imply 100x of the technological aspect. Price discovery does not equal every-day use adoption.

tl;dr: technology might be able to cope; bureaucracy can not keep up.

Since when does Bitcoin care about Bureaucracy?  

Not everyone will be cashing out coins.  Many will hold or trade them directly or use them independent of banks or whatever government "laws and regulations" are there.  It can slow down the process, sure.  But I would not be concerned about the growth of Bitcoin being a problem.  It will grow in spite of these difficulties.  Eventually countries will either have to accept the use of the currency or be left behind.

Then , at some point down the road, I personally think the growth will cause some panic by countries because they no longer have "control" then they will regulate the use of Bitcoin, or whatever crypto currency, by requiring a bar code on our hands or foreheads so that they can keep track of who is buying things.  Call me crazy but it seems highly likely.

You're missing the point. It's not about people cashing out coins... I'm talking about the buying !

How do you presume to push the price up 100x if people can't buy coins??

Most of the forum posters here, being from the US or EU don't realize it because they don't see it. It is extremely difficult to buy coins in volume from 3rd world countries.

If you're a South American today, you cannot hook your bank to any exchange. You cannot get market prices. There is no way to acquire ""fair"" value BTC other than LocalBitcoins or the such. None.

Only people with access to foreign bank acc's can. The rest buy p2p or with CC's in dodgy sites, and always at 15-25% markup.

This is all a matter of time. Just not 6 months...

Unless of course, you think you don't need the rest of the world to go super exponential.

[BitChick]

Perhaps true.  But do not underestimate the ability of infrastructure to grow exponentially as well.  

I said it yesterday in the other post and I don't wanna be repeating myself but when talking about infrastructure I see two critical points: technology and bureaucracy.

Technology can in fact hold up (with a lot of capital and work, and other exchanges popping up to cover demand).

You cannot rush bureaucracy. You have 6 months to convince banks to process 100x the amount of money they process today, all the while trying to comply with as of yet unwritten or non-existant laws and regulations. You have to go up the chain link by link, and sweet talk every player in every country. Just not possible.

Also, consider, a 100x price implies 100x more fiat processing BUT it does not imply 100x of the technological aspect. Price discovery does not equal every-day use adoption.

tl;dr: technology might be able to cope; bureaucracy can not keep up.

Since when does Bitcoin care about Bureaucracy?  

Not everyone will be cashing out coins.  Many will hold or trade them directly or use them independent of banks or whatever government "laws and regulations" are there.  It can slow down the process, sure.  But I would not be concerned about the growth of Bitcoin being a problem.  It will grow in spite of these difficulties.  Eventually countries will either have to accept the use of the currency or be left behind.

Then , at some point down the road, I personally think the growth will cause some panic by countries because they no longer have "control" then they will regulate the use of Bitcoin, or whatever crypto currency, by requiring a bar code on our hands or foreheads so that they can keep track of who is buying things.  Call me crazy but it seems highly likely.

You're missing the point. It's not about people cashing out coins... I'm talking about the buying !

How do you presume to push the price up 100x if people can't buy coins??

Most of the forum posters here, being from the US or EU don't realize it because they don't see it. It is extremely difficult to buy coins in volume from 3rd world countries.

If you're a South American today, you cannot hook your bank to any exchange. You cannot get market prices. There is no way to acquire ""fair"" value BTC other than LocalBitcoins or the such. None.

Only people with access to foreign bank acc's can. The rest buy p2p or with CC's in dodgy sites, and always at 15-25% markup.

This is all a matter of time. Just not 6 months...

Unless of course, you think you don't need the rest of the world to go super exponential.

Not to be offensive, but who controls most of the world's finances?  Unfortunately 3rd world countries do not account for that much of it.  Although I would love to see them getting a chance to own as much coins as possible early on, if their countries have made it impossible to get BTC that will not keep the growth from happening anyways.

Right now BTC is legal to buy in all the countries that control most of the world's wealth.  And even China and South American countries will probably find a way to get coins, albeit more difficultly, if they really want them.

[ChartBuddy]

[MAbtc]

SMH

[iarsenaux]

Perhaps true.  But do not underestimate the ability of infrastructure to grow exponentially as well.  

I said it yesterday in the other post and I don't wanna be repeating myself but when talking about infrastructure I see two critical points: technology and bureaucracy.

Technology can in fact hold up (with a lot of capital and work, and other exchanges popping up to cover demand).

You cannot rush bureaucracy. You have 6 months to convince banks to process 100x the amount of money they process today, all the while trying to comply with as of yet unwritten or non-existant laws and regulations. You have to go up the chain link by link, and sweet talk every player in every country. Just not possible.

Also, consider, a 100x price implies 100x more fiat processing BUT it does not imply 100x of the technological aspect. Price discovery does not equal every-day use adoption.

tl;dr: technology might be able to cope; bureaucracy can not keep up.

Since when does Bitcoin care about Bureaucracy?  

Not everyone will be cashing out coins.  Many will hold or trade them directly or use them independent of banks or whatever government "laws and regulations" are there.  It can slow down the process, sure.  But I would not be concerned about the growth of Bitcoin being a problem.  It will grow in spite of these difficulties.  Eventually countries will either have to accept the use of the currency or be left behind.

Then , at some point down the road, I personally think the growth will cause some panic by countries because they no longer have "control" then they will regulate the use of Bitcoin, or whatever crypto currency, by requiring a bar code on our hands or foreheads so that they can keep track of who is buying things.  Call me crazy but it seems highly likely.

You're missing the point. It's not about people cashing out coins... I'm talking about the buying !

How do you presume to push the price up 100x if people can't buy coins??

Most of the forum posters here, being from the US or EU don't realize it because they don't see it. It is extremely difficult to buy coins in volume from 3rd world countries.

If you're a South American today, you cannot hook your bank to any exchange. You cannot get market prices. There is no way to acquire ""fair"" value BTC other than LocalBitcoins or the such. None.

Only people with access to foreign bank acc's can. The rest buy p2p or with CC's in dodgy sites, and always at 15-25% markup.

This is all a matter of time. Just not 6 months...

Unless of course, you think you don't need the rest of the world to go super exponential.

I agree with bitchick. I'm from a 3rd world country. If i were not given 100btc long time ago i wouldn't be here. Basic salary in my country is only around $200 to $300 (tax is not yet subtracted) PER MONTH. Most of my countrymen cant even keep $50 at the end of the month. I'm just lucky being an early holder.

[EuroTrash]

One question related to those funds is if some of them might belong to people who committed no crimes (or at least have not been convicted of them). I'm have little doubt (in fact, I pretty much know for sure) that there's precedent for the cops just keeping the whole lot but still.

That is something that bothers me, hypothetically.

There is a minority of international SR users that never purchased or sold anything illegal. They happened to have some coins there, maybe with the intent of wrongdoing - but SR closed in their face before they did any. Or maybe they were just using SR as an online wallet. These are not US citizens. What gives the US government any right to steal their coins?

[bassclef]

Fortress is first. And so it begins.

Wow. Exciting times.

Correct me if I'm wrong but price is arbitrary. We can trade in millibitcoins or whatever. Infrastructure will increase no doubt, but there doesn't need to be a specific amount of infrastructure to support a price; it simply reflects supply and demand. When an investment firm needs to back their Bitcoin trust, they buy, increasing scarcity in an already scarce resource, driving up the price.

The lucky ones in this case will be those who hold whole coins, when millions of people want 1 coin each, or a fraction of one. Seems difficult for us to grasp for us here, but we are the hundreds and thousands, not millions, who want coins.

[RandyMagnum]

What's with the grim reaper...

[Peter R]

Perhaps true.  But do not underestimate the ability of infrastructure to grow exponentially as well.  

I said it yesterday in the other post and I don't wanna be repeating myself but when talking about infrastructure I see two critical points: technology and bureaucracy.

Technology can in fact hold up (with a lot of capital and work, and other exchanges popping up to cover demand).

You cannot rush bureaucracy. You have 6 months to convince banks to process 100x the amount of money they process today, all the while trying to comply with as of yet unwritten or non-existant laws and regulations. You have to go up the chain link by link, and sweet talk every player in every country. Just not possible.

Also, consider, a 100x price implies 100x more fiat processing BUT it does not imply 100x of the technological aspect. Price discovery does not equal every-day use adoption.

tl;dr: technology might be able to cope; bureaucracy can not keep up.

I think Voodah makes good points here.  

Let me chime in with my two-cents: we can definitely hit $3,000+ with our current infrastructure and regulatory climate, but a lot has to happen if we're going to make an uberbull move to $40,000 - $100,000.  I think we need to wait for bitcoin ATMs to be deployed and operating at numerous major cities across the Western World (coming in 2014-2015?), and we need some way for the average guy with an eTrade account to get in on the game.  If these two things were in place, then I can see that when the media bitcoin blitz begins again, the infrastructure can meet new demand and the price can truly reach the oort cloud.  

I few more points about the ATMs....

A lot of people are excited by the news that Lamassu has already sold over 100 machines (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=392148.0).  They should be excited because this means that engineers are actively working to build cost-effective bitcoin ATMs, and that entrepreneurs are eager to purchase these machines.  

But just because the machines have been built and purchased, doesn't mean they will be deployed in large numbers in the wild any time soon.  I know that some people ordered these machines before performing due diligence in regards to the regulatory compliance required to operate them.  They wanted to get "in line" and figured that they would solve any regulatory problems as they come up.  I'm not saying this is a bad idea, I'm just saying that...hmm...so far there's only two operating ATMs in the world (that I know of).

It wasn't that long ago that people were saying that ATMs wouldn't make it to the US due to FINCEN and state money-transmitter compliance.  And people are now saying that because these Lamassu machines only sell bitcoin, that somehow they will be exempt from AML/KYC requirements too.  This sounds sensible to me, but until we have a fleet of ATMs deployed across the Western World, I think we must expect future obstacles.  

[JulieFig]

Happy New Year from down under...

Without intending to, I ended up acting as a bit of a Bitcoin advocate tonight while out with friends at a New Years Eve party. I tried to enlighten them (inadvertently came up with a different analogy each time) as to what Bitcoin really was, but in the end the main 'argument' they had against it was "If I can't touch it, it's not real - I don't trust the internet with it". Which is ironic since that is basically what they're doing with their bank accounts.

One guy was a Financial Advisor (capital 'F', capital 'A' - his distinction, not mine) who said he was happy to "argue against Bitcoin all night". I (successfully, I think) countered every roadblock he threw up about Bitcoin and ended up betting him that one Bitcoin would be worth more than $50,000USD in 3 years (perhaps a little bullish, although can you blame me?)*. I confess, I may have been a little inebriated by this point, but I am getting a little fed up with the ramblings of people who have not taken a few minutes out of their day to research what Bitcoin actually is (i.e. a protocol as well as a currency), but instead act as if they're experts who foresee the demise of this 'imaginary money'.

Does anyone else get a little fed up with this sort of attitude?

(Apologies if this post does not belong in this thread... It's just that this is the main thread I read (every morning without fail, I trawl through the 8 or so pages that have been posted overnight... > 8 pages = something big has happened, < 8 pages = price has remained stagnant.) Although, it seems 'stagnant' in Bitcoin vernacular is akin to 'short-term' or 'temporary' in normal trading terms.)

*Bought at $1060 and have been 'hodling' ever since.
 

[Voodah]

Not to be offensive, but who controls most of the world's finances?  Unfortunately 3rd world countries do not account for that much of it.  Although I would love to see them getting a chance to own as much coins as possible early on, if their countries have made it impossible to get BTC that will not keep the growth from happening anyways.

Right now BTC is legal to buy in all the countries that control most of the world's wealth.  And even China and South American countries will probably find a way to get coins, albeit more difficultly, if they really want them.

Oh yeah, that's completely true as well, but it if too fast too soon is unhealthy, that horrible non-distribution is like letting loose a cancer in here.

If Bitcoin fails to appeal to other 80% of the world population, it will ultimately fail as a currency and be left on the sidelines as a commodity.

Make no mistake, there will be eventually a global currency (even if playing along with fiat). Let's aim for Bitcoin to take that place in a healthy way, else some crap like Doge or Goat Shit Coin (   ) will take over.

[T.Stuart]

Happy New Year from down under...

Without intending to, I ended up acting as a bit of a Bitcoin advocate tonight while out with friends at a New Years Eve party. I tried to enlighten them (inadvertently came up with a different analogy each time) as to what Bitcoin really was, but in the end the main 'argument' they had against it was "If I can't touch it, it's not real - I don't trust the internet with it". Which is ironic since that is basically what they're doing with their bank accounts.

One guy was a Financial Advisor (capital 'F', capital 'A' - his distinction, not mine) who said he was happy to "argue against Bitcoin all night". I (successfully, I think) countered every roadblock he threw up about Bitcoin and ended up betting him that one Bitcoin would be worth more than $50,000USD in 3 years (perhaps a little bullish, although can you blame me?)*. I confess, I may have been a little inebriated by this point, but I am getting a little fed up with the ramblings of people who have not taken a few minutes out of their day to research what Bitcoin actually is (i.e. a protocol as well as a currency), but instead act as if they're experts who foresee the demise of this 'imaginary money'.

Does anyone else get a little fed up with this sort of attitude?

(Apologies if this post does not belong in this thread... It's just that this is the main thread I read (every morning without fail, I trawl through the 8 or so pages that have been posted overnight... > 8 pages = something big has happened, < 8 pages = price has remained stagnant.) Although, it seems 'stagnant' in Bitcoin vernacular is akin to 'short-term' or 'temporary' in normal trading terms.)

*Bought at $1060 and have been 'hodling' ever since.
 

Well done! Fucking well done! Thanks for being so sincere and keep hodling - you'll be in the black shortly no worries at all!

[Voodah]

I agree with bitchick. I'm from a 3rd world country. If i were not given 100btc long time ago i wouldn't be here. Basic salary in my country is only around $200 to $300 (tax is not yet subtracted) PER MONTH. Most of my countrymen cant even keep $50 at the end of the month. I'm just lucky being an early holder.

I think you meant me. Bitchick wants to leave us 3rd world scum behind !