Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[OldGeek]

With each new day I see less and less chance for price to significantly drop. Only some very negative news could do it, the buying pressure just absorbs any dump, and bid walls keep building.

What would you consider significant, seleme?

[aminorex]

I have some 7970's with the same problem I think, can't mine litecoins for shit, but they did just fine on bitcoin for almost 2 years. thanks for the heads up, I'm gonna try deepbit again, or maybe just sha-256 altcoins?

multipool switch-mines btc and alts selected by return in btc terms.  why not multipool?  sorry for the OT, but in this thread...

[aminorex]

Oh my good the bulls have drank mana potion and grown giant flaming horns. $100,000 in August folks...

Single digits by Friday.

I didn't realize that lemniscate was considered a digit.

[OldGeek]

Oh my good the bulls have drank mana potion and grown giant flaming horns. $100,000 in August folks...

Single digits by Friday.

I didn't realize that lemniscate was considered a digit.

lol  "lēmniscātus" one of my lost memories.  Well done.

[seleme]

With each new day I see less and less chance for price to significantly drop. Only some very negative news could do it, the buying pressure just absorbs any dump, and bid walls keep building.

What would you consider significant, seleme?

600s would be significant these days.

[OldGeek]

So, my question remains.  Where will all the coins come from to support a huge increase in the price?

It doesn't take any coins to change the price, all it takes is for nobody to offer to sell under $1000.

100% agree with that.  But that isn't support.  If nobody sells we don't have a market.

[Voodah]

With each new day I see less and less chance for price to significantly drop. Only some very negative news could do it, the buying pressure just absorbs any dump, and bid walls keep building.

Lets revisit this once there is a 50k dump.

I was thinking about this the other day.

I doubt we're gonna see a 50k coin dump ever again.

The market has matured. People with that amount of coins know they can get easily get a better OTC deal these days.

[seleme]

With each new day I see less and less chance for price to significantly drop. Only some very negative news could do it, the buying pressure just absorbs any dump, and bid walls keep building.

Lets revisit this once there is a 50k dump.

50k dump doesn't happen without significant (yes,yes, I used it again) negative event.

Why would anyone dump that amount of coins at this point or any other amount that would trigger a sale of that size when he can dump 3-4k from time to time and watch bids built to the top where he started in few hours.

5k dumped yesterday and look where we are now, higher than before it was dumped, buying pressure is just there.

I have nice % in fiat and I would love it to fail a bit but it's just not happening..

[lebing]

I doubt we're gonna see a 50k coin dump ever again.

thats why I posted that silly gif. We wont see that again.

[TERA]

You're all so sure of yourselves as if your optimisms are facts. Meanwhile the whales could feel like they are playing Jenga with btc and it is a big stalemate.

[aminorex]

I doubt we're gonna see a 50k coin dump ever again.

The market has matured. People with that amount of coins know they can get easily get a better OTC deal these days.

I'm just assuming here, but I am assuming that order sizes above a certain threshold are approximately exponentially distributed.  We've seen 4k dumped more than once in the past day or two.  I think we're going to see a 50k dump (without doing the math here, which is notionally trivial, but I can't be bothered to do it ATM) certainly within the month, feasibly any day.  

Um, to me stacking orders of 200 every 5USD to a depth of 4k on each of two exchanges qualifies as a dump.  Others may use the word with more rigor, e.g. to mean an atomic market order (OMG the very thought makes me weep for the fool) or at least a near-market limit order.

[aminorex]

You're all so sure of yourselves as if your optimisms are facts. Meanwhile the whales could feel like they are playing Jenga with btc and it is a big stalemate.

Talking your book is a form of intellectual honesty.  I respect that.  But "could" is emotional FUD land, while facts and logic create "optimisms".
I find it very difficult to make price-bear cases on the basis of facts and logic, easy to make price-bull cases.  I won't detail the reasons which have
been addressed elsewhere as I'm not trying to convince on that point.  But, and here is the point of this post, or will be eventually, if I ever terminate the meta-narrative component, I am deeply puzzled by the volatility-bearish nature of this thread recently.  I remain deeply volatility-bullish.  If I could buy BTC vol, given the sentiments expressed here, I suspect I could get it for CHEAP!

[Peter R]

I doubt we're gonna see a 50k coin dump ever again.

The market has matured. People with that amount of coins know they can get easily get a better OTC deal these days.

I'm just assuming here, but I am assuming that order sizes above a certain threshold are approximately exponentially distributed.  We've seen 4k dumped more than once in the past day or two.  I think we're going to see a 50k dump (without doing the math here, which is notionally trivial, but I can't be bothered to do it ATM) certainly within the month, feasibly any day.  

I agree with Voodah that the market has matured and that 50k dumps are much less probably, but I also agree with aminorex that they are still certainly possible and that we should in fact expect one eventually.  It takes a fairly sophisticated individual to arrange a OTC deal with a Wall Street hedge fund or Chinese tycoon.  There *must* still be early miners, maybe 23 years old, completely mind-blown by the fact that they have $80,000,000 in bitcoins.  Eventually one of them just says, "I'm getting the fuck out of Dodge" and does something stupid.  

[ElectricMucus]

China wants to move down, bitstamp wants to move down. Just the goxians are clinging to the cliff what will happen?

[TERA]

These are not deep books or 'big walls' either - these are thin. Even if you combined bitstamp and mtgox, if you were to see books this thin any time before October, you would know for sure that a drop was coming. But now we are in some new paradigm of thinking where we don't need deep books and the majority of the volume is done in offline whale transactions and in China. Meanwhile there is no real proof of exactly how much this is occuring.

[F-bernanke]

So, my question remains.  Where will all the coins come from to support a huge increase in the price?

It doesn't take any coins to change the price, all it takes is for nobody to offer to sell under $1000.

100% agree with that.  But that isn't support.  If nobody sells we don't have a market.

Thats a market, a market around $1000 to be precise. it's all about supply/demand, no supply of coins, higher demand = higher price.

[ElectricMucus]

I doubt we're gonna see a 50k coin dump ever again.

The market has matured. People with that amount of coins know they can get easily get a better OTC deal these days.

I'm just assuming here, but I am assuming that order sizes above a certain threshold are approximately exponentially distributed.  We've seen 4k dumped more than once in the past day or two.  I think we're going to see a 50k dump (without doing the math here, which is notionally trivial, but I can't be bothered to do it ATM) certainly within the month, feasibly any day. 

I agree with Voodah that the market has matured and that 50k dumps are much less probably, but I also agree with aminorex that they are still certainly possible and that we should in fact expect one eventually.  It takes a fairly sophisticated individual to arrange a OTC deal with a Wall Street hedge fund or Chinese tycoon.  There *must* still be early miners, maybe 23 years old, completely mind-blown by the fact that they have $80,000,000 in bitcoins.  Eventually one of them just says, "I'm getting the fuck out of Dodge" and does something stupid. 

A friendly reminder about how reality looks like:
http://buttcoin.org/easy-like-sunday-morning

[TERA]

I doubt we're gonna see a 50k coin dump ever again.

The market has matured. People with that amount of coins know they can get easily get a better OTC deal these days.

I'm just assuming here, but I am assuming that order sizes above a certain threshold are approximately exponentially distributed.  We've seen 4k dumped more than once in the past day or two.  I think we're going to see a 50k dump (without doing the math here, which is notionally trivial, but I can't be bothered to do it ATM) certainly within the month, feasibly any day. 

I agree with Voodah that the market has matured and that 50k dumps are much less probably, but I also agree with aminorex that they are still certainly possible and that we should in fact expect one eventually.  It takes a fairly sophisticated individual to arrange a OTC deal with a Wall Street hedge fund or Chinese tycoon.  There *must* still be early miners, maybe 23 years old, completely mind-blown by the fact that they have $80,000,000 in bitcoins.  Eventually one of them just says, "I'm getting the fuck out of Dodge" and does something stupid. 

A friendly reminder about how reality looks like:
http://buttcoin.org/easy-like-sunday-morning

What a sad story. My Bitstamp withdrawals have been working just fine. Where is this guy selling the half price bitcoins? I would like to meet go meet him.

[Peter R]

I doubt we're gonna see a 50k coin dump ever again.

The market has matured. People with that amount of coins know they can get easily get a better OTC deal these days.

I'm just assuming here, but I am assuming that order sizes above a certain threshold are approximately exponentially distributed.  We've seen 4k dumped more than once in the past day or two.  I think we're going to see a 50k dump (without doing the math here, which is notionally trivial, but I can't be bothered to do it ATM) certainly within the month, feasibly any day.  

I agree with Voodah that the market has matured and that 50k dumps are much less probably, but I also agree with aminorex that they are still certainly possible and that we should in fact expect one eventually.  It takes a fairly sophisticated individual to arrange a OTC deal with a Wall Street hedge fund or Chinese tycoon.  There *must* still be early miners, maybe 23 years old, completely mind-blown by the fact that they have $80,000,000 in bitcoins.  Eventually one of them just says, "I'm getting the fuck out of Dodge" and does something stupid.  

no one is going to dump 50k btc on the open market not expecting to get the fait

50k is extreme--the point is that big dumps are always possible for a variety of reasons.  

[Peter R]

I doubt we're gonna see a 50k coin dump ever again.

The market has matured. People with that amount of coins know they can get easily get a better OTC deal these days.

I'm just assuming here, but I am assuming that order sizes above a certain threshold are approximately exponentially distributed.  We've seen 4k dumped more than once in the past day or two.  I think we're going to see a 50k dump (without doing the math here, which is notionally trivial, but I can't be bothered to do it ATM) certainly within the month, feasibly any day.  

I agree with Voodah that the market has matured and that 50k dumps are much less probably, but I also agree with aminorex that they are still certainly possible and that we should in fact expect one eventually.  It takes a fairly sophisticated individual to arrange a OTC deal with a Wall Street hedge fund or Chinese tycoon.  There *must* still be early miners, maybe 23 years old, completely mind-blown by the fact that they have $80,000,000 in bitcoins.  Eventually one of them just says, "I'm getting the fuck out of Dodge" and does something stupid.  

no one is going to dump 50k btc on the open market not expecting to get the fait

50k is extreme--the point is that big dumps are always possible for a variety of reasons.  

no it is not, unless the exchange is doing it

I'm sorry Goat, I don't think I understood your last two posts.  What did you mean "no one is going to dump 50k btc on the open market not expecting to get the fait"?  And what did you mean that 50k is not extreme "unless the exchange is doing it?"