Postscript Note: Below, I do respond to two of your posts, Majormax. Your first post pissed me off, somewhat, and maybe that can be gleaned from my response; however, I agreed to a lot of what you are saying (like a kind of clarification post) in the second one. Go figure?
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6920 then 5200 then 6500 then capitulation around 3K in january 2019
Just about possible, but timeframe looks wrong for that. IF we are going to $3k (hopefully not) , then it will take longer. The market may be too mature for that type of volatility.
I doubt that BTC's supposed "maturity" would be an appropriate explanation for why it would not bounce so far down to $3k so quickly. We should realize that both BTC is hardly mature, and BTC's price can be pushed with a relatively low quantity of capital.
It seems to me that $3k is just becoming less and less possible based on the difficulties that are being had to get BTC's price below $6k. After a while the bounce back down to $3k becomes more and more unreasonable as a prediction.
A stall in the 5k to 7k range for another 6 months, then a slow roller-coaster climb to 12k in 2020 is perhaps more realistic. 100% ROI in 15 months is pretty good.
Surely that framework of a 100% return in 15 months is not unreasonable for bitcoin, and even given our current price situation.
Ultimately, with the numbers of large alts now becoming more globally viable, it is worth considering the possiblilty that BTC has seen its ATH already.
Now you are getting into extreme scenarios and presenting them as if they are reasonable. What kind of odds do you give that BTC will never reach $20k, again? Pretty low, no? 10% or less for sure, right? Or are you assigning higher odds than that?
Even some of the more optimistic predictions back in 2013 had 10k as the final target, and a steady decrease in volatility as that price approached.
Who gives a ratt's ass about the limitations of the perspectives back in 2013? You know that the range of what is possible changes as the actual price performance changes, so BTC's price movement to $20k has made both the psychological perspective change, but also has shown a certain kind of strength in BTC fundamentals both in terms of security and in terms of the market's willing to go to those kinds of $20k prices (without the world ending).
You are being really overdramatic and overly bearish if you really believe that $20k is ending up as the top of the range for bitcoin.
And, get the fuck out of here with your suggestion that some of the alt coins could take away BTC's price performance potential because they might be better in some ways. As I type, there is still NOT one coin that is even close to bitcoin in terms of its soundness of money including the seven network effects referred to by Trace Mayer.
I will grant that if another coin comes a long that is better than bitcoin, then the money from bitcoin will likely flow into that better project (including my own money), but that better than bitcoin possibility does not negate that value is most likely to gravitate towards the most sound of the moneys - which currently remains bitcoin.
Do you know of some better sound money than bitcoin? I will also grant you that it could take 50 years or more for a real and meaningful gravitation towards bitcoin becomes irreversible, but the long time line still does not take away from the fact that bitcoin remains the ONLY real game in town.. and even if the next ATH is delayed another several years, proposing that ATH is NEVER going to happen again amounts to pie in the sky thinking and very reminiscent of 2015/2016 talk in regards to whether the then ATH of $1,163 would ever be breached again (which such 2015/2016 talk of $1,163 never being breached again seems silly, now, but it was very serious talk at that time).
I am neither a bear nor a bull but wish to arrive at a realistic likelihood of various outcomes. ....
There are 3 main ways to view the future.
1. BTC will aways be the leading digital money, increase dominance, and large returns are still possible.
2. Technical failure or crippling of some sort (low probabilty, but still possible)
3. Another crypocurrecy ascends to dominance.
I would put odds of perhaps 10% on #2, and 45% on each of #1 and 3.
Price targets for 2021 for :
#1 30k
#2 sub-1k
#3 8k
Conclusion... good odds of positive ROI from current level.
I am not sure whether I should have read ahead before I made my earlier (more pissed off responsive post), and these are very decent points and probability assignments, Majormax... except the I am neither a bull or a bear... comes off as too detached.
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