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That's exactly what worries me. This time no one really think Bitcoin could simply vanish. Everybody is expecting a surge any moment in time or, at least, is sure that Bitcoin will hit new ATHs in the next few years. In 2014 most people just didn't know if it was all over. That maybe Bitcoin was really dying for good. Huge uncertainty to say the least.
Yes. A certain quantity of resolutions in the minds of folks to recognize that there is more to bitcoin than what was originally perceived by a vast majority of folks, even though some of that lack of confidence still exists, it is not anywhere near the levels that it was a few years ago... and hence the price increase of a bit more than 20x (but that doesn't really say whether a 20x plus price increase is a good current valuation).
This time there is so much confidence.... it's not a matter of IF anymore, just WHEN.... and that difference is somewhat scary.
How are the "weak hands" going to capitulate with all this optimism? Can the price keep rising without a real capitulation? Well, maybe, but again that would be a new scenario unlike past Bitcoin history.
Your framing of the situation, which largely seems accurate, and your subsequent questions in this part seems to establish a recognition that there remains considerable tension in the proposed thesis that the BTC "blow off top" has already occurred, and if the "blow off top" has not yet occurred, then the lesser resistance remains as UP rather than as DOWN... and in the meantime, the BTC price is floating around in a kind of consolidation in order to attempt to figure out which direction has the least resistance... test, test, test...
The whales might have some ideas about what they are going to do and some ideas about probability that they are going to be successful, but likely even they have difficulties knowing for sure until they try it out and see how much "give" there is in the price direction that they are attempting to push.
Anyway, even if the price just stagnates around this level for a few more months could probably grind the nerves of many of those weak hands in a sort of slow-mo capitulation.
If the BTC price continues to "stagnate" or consolidate in this area, it can cause either phenomena - bearish sentiments or bullish sentiments... So "stagnating" does not really provide a convincing story for either direction... even though some FUD (or FOMO) spreaders would like to frame it as if it favors their preferred price direction.
The only thing I am sure is that we needed this correction.
That's crazy talk.
Yes, in retrospect, we know that the last run from $6k to $19,666 ran out of steam, but there is really no way of knowing how much "we needed" this correction, except to observe that once such correction happened, it became a part of the history (or the current dynamics, since we are still within the correction and can't really have enough information about what to call it because we don't know for sure where it is going, except to have some theories about which scenarios (in the next legs) seem more probable from each of our personal perspectives (which vary from person to person, too, and some persons are more genuine in their sharing of their actual perspective(s) rather than pushing some half-baked points.
Seems that one of the good things about this particular thread is that we seem to have a lot of decent member posters who are really attempting to grapple and to push their genuine ideas about bitcoin and bitcoin price dynamics, in spite of differences of opinion that come up from time to time and sometimes come out strenuously.... ... you fuckers!!!!!
The thing I am not so sure is if we need a deeper (or longer in time) one. Still too much hope... me included.
This concept of "what is needed" seems to attempt to apply too much absolutism about any prediction that you attempt to make.
Even looking at "what is needed" after the fact can be a bit too much and problematic, like I already asserted above.
It surely does not hurt to have some hope, because it is quite possible that even though currently a majority of folks remain bearish, they could well end up being wrong while BTC price slowly trickles up and they continue to wait for a meaningful correction that does not come....
Since we have been largely bouncing around in a kind of consolidation since early February, with a few false break outs, subsequently discovered, fuck the laggers who have not prepared for BTC price movements in both directions, including UP from here and are betting too much on down when the odds are more reasonably in the range of 50/50 (at least thinking short to medium term) rather than any kind of semblance of downward's "necessity."
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