Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[billyjoeallen]

The prospect of more than three down days in a row hasn't been keeping me awake at night so far.

Now it's been mentioned I guess I had better start panicking as soon as possible. I'm not really in the mood though.

You might have it backwards. These "bears" are actually waiting for a (re)entry-point.  Money is piling up on the sidelines.

[1714183686]

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[WeltMaster]

The prospect of more than three down days in a row hasn't been keeping me awake at night so far.

Now it's been mentioned I guess I had better start panicking as soon as possible. I'm not really in the mood though.

You might have it backwards. These "bears" are actually waiting for a (re)entry-point.  Money is piling up on the sidelines.

This.

Any flashcrash will get eaten up quickly, the market is still highly bullish.

[bambou]

The prospect of more than three down days in a row hasn't been keeping me awake at night so far.

Now it's been mentioned I guess I had better start panicking as soon as possible. I'm not really in the mood though.

You might have it backwards. These "bears" are actually waiting for a (re)entry-point.  Money is piling up on the sidelines.

This.

Any flashcrash will get eaten up quickly, the market is still highly bullish.

yeah but at some point these 'bulls' will loose their patience since no new money will come in (considering bears that keep on shorting) and they will be even more sensitive to quick dips, turning them eventually into big drops.  

[windjc]

The prospect of more than three down days in a row hasn't been keeping me awake at night so far.

Now it's been mentioned I guess I had better start panicking as soon as possible. I'm not really in the mood though.

You might have it backwards. These "bears" are actually waiting for a (re)entry-point.  Money is piling up on the sidelines.

yeah but at some point these 'bulls' will loose their patience since no new money will come in and they will be even more sensitive to quick dips, turning them eventually into big drops.

Really? You think most of the money in the markets is from people who doubt the long term viability of bitcoin?

Ok. But I disagree wholeheartedly with this. I believe most of the money in the market believes that bitcoin is going much higher over the next 2 years and other than other alt coins, these people do not think there is a better investment to be had. Gold? Ha. Ok. Fiat? Really?

[shmadz]

<snip>
How many BTC do you own?

2 weeks ago i still owned lower 3 digits, i bought in @ around 150$ .I actually own not a single coin right now. You will call me the biggest fool, but i´m okay with that.
It gives me some real good sleep at night. If it doesn´t get much lower i can live with it, i would go back in with 50% if there is enough momentum that the old ATH is about to be broken.
But i´m, convinced that we´re goin way lower. China and Gox are just lurking in ambush. Also the price is obviously kept up on all of these exchanges, neither can i see a lot of bullish sentiment in the way traders behave.

lower 3 digits is like 100,000 dollras or more... what exchange do you have that money at? if I may ask?

[billyjoeallen]

The prospect of more than three down days in a row hasn't been keeping me awake at night so far.

Now it's been mentioned I guess I had better start panicking as soon as possible. I'm not really in the mood though.

You might have it backwards. These "bears" are actually waiting for a (re)entry-point.  Money is piling up on the sidelines.

yeah but at some point these 'bulls' will loose their patience since no new money will come in and they will be even more sensitive to quick dips, turning them eventually into big drops.

In four years, I have never seen a big drop after sideways motion. Drops come after peaks. It's entirely possible that sub $800 coins will never come back. I hope they do, so I can buy more, but I'm in a club with many, many members.

[fonzie]

<snip>
How many BTC do you own?

2 weeks ago i still owned lower 3 digits, i bought in @ around 150$ .I actually own not a single coin right now. You will call me the biggest fool, but i´m okay with that.
It gives me some real good sleep at night. If it doesn´t get much lower i can live with it, i would go back in with 50% if there is enough momentum that the old ATH is about to be broken.
But i´m, convinced that we´re goin way lower. China and Gox are just lurking in ambush. Also the price is obviously kept up on all of these exchanges, neither can i see a lot of bullish sentiment in the way traders behave.

lower 3 digits is like 100,000 dollras or more... what exchange do you have that money at? if I may ask?

I cashed out about 50%, the remaining fiat is 75% on Stamp and 25% on bitfinex. Sometimes i keep a bit on Btc-E but no significant amount and only very short term, due to the fact that they could easily go dark over night. I left Gox about 5 months ago btw, and never used it again.

[fonzie]

So... somebody just put a 500btc bid wall at 817$ on stamp  

 

It´s about to get interesting. Another round of pump and dump   We´ll see

50 BTC asks gettin refilled all the time.

Edit: and there goes the wall, that was a real short appearence.

I wonder what the purpose of this is

[shmadz]

T'is the time for that fekken train!!!!!!!!!!

CCMF time!!

LOL this is just excellent.

Canadian Credit and Management Foundation @ gox right now.

no kidding, stupid Canadian Credit and Management Foundation has the Canadian exchange sitting at between 60 to 80 bucks above stamp for much too long.

Someone needs to show these bulls that this train can choo choo down too!

Someone? Anyone? Bueller?

[adamstgBit]

T'is the time for that fekken train!!!!!!!!!!

CCMF time!!

LOL this is just excellent.

Canadian Credit and Management Foundation @ gox right now.

no kidding, stupid Canadian Credit and Management Foundation has the Canadian exchange sitting at between 60 to 80 bucks above stamp for much too long.

Someone needs to show these bulls that this train can choo choo down too!

Someone? Anyone? Bueller?

thats cuz  1 CAD = 0.89USD

if anything coins are one hell of a bargain price on virtex right now

[shmadz]

<snip>
How many BTC do you own?

2 weeks ago i still owned lower 3 digits, i bought in @ around 150$ .I actually own not a single coin right now. You will call me the biggest fool, but i´m okay with that.
It gives me some real good sleep at night. If it doesn´t get much lower i can live with it, i would go back in with 50% if there is enough momentum that the old ATH is about to be broken.
But i´m, convinced that we´re goin way lower. China and Gox are just lurking in ambush. Also the price is obviously kept up on all of these exchanges, neither can i see a lot of bullish sentiment in the way traders behave.

lower 3 digits is like 100,000 dollras or more... what exchange do you have that money at? if I may ask?

I cashed out about 50%, the remaining fiat is 75% on Stamp and 25% on bitfinex. Sometimes i keep a bit on Btc-E but no significant amount and only very short term, due to the fact that they could easily go dark over night. I left Gox about 5 months ago btw, and never used it again.

Thank you, I was thinking you might have been holding significant reserves on btc-e, and I would like to be able to trust that place, but I just can't...

Your plan sounds perfectly sane, I was a little worried you might get caught if the market moves against you, but as long as you can get that 50% back in within a few days if it goes the wrong way, you should be just fine.

[chriswilmer]

The prospect of more than three down days in a row hasn't been keeping me awake at night so far.

Now it's been mentioned I guess I had better start panicking as soon as possible. I'm not really in the mood though.

You might have it backwards. These "bears" are actually waiting for a (re)entry-point.  Money is piling up on the sidelines.

yeah but at some point these 'bulls' will loose their patience since no new money will come in and they will be even more sensitive to quick dips, turning them eventually into big drops.

In four years, I have never seen a big drop after sideways motion. Drops come after peaks. It's entirely possible that sub $800 coins will never come back. I hope they do, so I can buy more, but I'm in a club with many, many members.

+1

I just went (almost) all in based on the same observation. Now the market can go ahead and prove us wrong! please don't...

[shmadz]

<snip>

no kidding, stupid Canadian Credit and Management Foundation has the Canadian exchange sitting at between 60 to 80 bucks above stamp for much too long.

Someone needs to show these bulls that this train can choo choo down too!

Someone? Anyone? Bueller?

thats cuz  1 CAD = 0.89USD

if anything coins are one hell of a bargain price on virtex right now

1 CAD = 0.89USD !! ?

holy cow, I really do spend too much time here.. I thought we were still around 1-1...

Oh well. Doesn't matter. Canada doesn't need their own currency (we haven't really had our own currency ever since we stopped borrowing from the Bank of Canada and started borrowing from the private banksters anyways... not to mention we sold all our gold years ago...)

We'll just continue whoring out our natural resources - but from now on, we only accept bitcoin!

CHOO CHOO MOTHERFUCKERS!!!!!

[bambou]

The prospect of more than three down days in a row hasn't been keeping me awake at night so far.

Now it's been mentioned I guess I had better start panicking as soon as possible. I'm not really in the mood though.

You might have it backwards. These "bears" are actually waiting for a (re)entry-point.  Money is piling up on the sidelines.

yeah but at some point these 'bulls' will loose their patience since no new money will come in and they will be even more sensitive to quick dips, turning them eventually into big drops.

Really? You think most of the money in the markets is from people who doubt the long term viability of bitcoin?

Ok. But I disagree wholeheartedly with this. I believe most of the money in the market believes that bitcoin is going much higher over the next 2 years and other than other alt coins, these people do not think there is a better investment to be had. Gold? Ha. Ok. Fiat? Really?

Oh i think you misunderstood what i was trying to say.

But first understand this: i did not invest a single penny on BTC before having not a single doubt left about it (and the time to research the subject), so i can be referred to as 'fully bullish' on the mid/long term.

Now what i was trying to say is that it is somehow like "a dog chasing its tail" when considering bears and bulls on the short term and especially after a recent surge in the price. IMO the problem is that bulls are mostly impatients whereas bears are not.
Altough we all already know how bitcoin is going to be wonderful over the next years with lots of new things, it still isn't enough to make it surge any time soon (seems to me the price is actually artificially kept whislt no 'new' money push it up). Why? Because we need time to really take it to the next level (for example, whenever bitcoin will be accepted by even 2% (?!) of merchants worldwide).
So bears should win this short term (next two months maybe?) 'mental fight' with bulls. Or they should not. But i figure considering both views is relevant, if not wise. So i am 50/50 $$/BTC because it's also nice to take profit anyway



edit: + this

We are claiming that there are short-term periods of exuberance along the adoption curve which behave like bubbles. Thus, those charts you see are generally correct over the short-term of those bubbles. This is why so many keep pointing to them in regards to a future short-term lower price for Bitcoin. But everyone expects bitcoins to go much higher, say to $10,000 at some point, just not now or in the next couple months. The bulls on here think we should just reach a new high every couple months with no sustained returns to significantly lower values than the ATH, but it just doesn't happen like that in general. Nor has bitcoin price demonstrated such behavior before.

[Vigil]

The prospect of more than three down days in a row hasn't been keeping me awake at night so far.

Now it's been mentioned I guess I had better start panicking as soon as possible. I'm not really in the mood though.

You might have it backwards. These "bears" are actually waiting for a (re)entry-point.  Money is piling up on the sidelines.

yeah but at some point these 'bulls' will loose their patience since no new money will come in and they will be even more sensitive to quick dips, turning them eventually into big drops.

In four years, I have never seen a big drop after sideways motion. Drops come after peaks. It's entirely possible that sub $800 coins will never come back. I hope they do, so I can buy more, but I'm in a club with many, many members.

Sub 800 wouldn't even be worth the wait. If that is all you are waiting for might as well just go all in now. You are talking about .15 BTC difference. Most people are waiting for $500 and lower.


And someone really needs to address the idiots who keep claiming "Bitcoin isn't a bubble". No one on here is claiming that Bitcoin is a bubble and will drop to lower prices indefinitely. We are claiming that there are short-term periods of exuberance along the adoption curve which behave like bubbles. Thus, those charts you see are generally correct over the short-term of those bubbles. This is why so many keep pointing to them in regards to a future short-term lower price for Bitcoin. But everyone expects bitcoins to go much higher, say to $10,000 at some point, just not now or in the next couple months. The bulls on here think we should just reach a new high every couple months with no sustained returns to significantly lower values than the ATH, but it just doesn't happen like that in general. Nor has bitcoin price demonstrated such behavior before. This will be a first if that is the case here.

This chart of the early Amazon bubble could be similar to what we are currently experiencing with Bitcoin price:

[bambou]

...

This chart of the early Amazon bubble could be similar to what we are currently experiencing with Bitcoin price:

i'd rather think we are about there when considering Amazon

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[adamstgBit]

...

This chart of the early Amazon bubble could be similar to what we are currently experiencing with Bitcoin price:

i'd rather think we are about there when considering Amazon

omg this makes me want to buy so badly.

also how do i short amazon?

[billyjoeallen]

Sub 800 wouldn't even be worth the wait. If that is all you are waiting for might as well just go all in now. You are talking about .15 BTC difference. Most people are waiting for $500 and lower.

I'm close to all-in, but my job as a speculator is to help stabilize the price (buy low sell high and make bitcoin more useful for merchants). Can't very well do that without some dry powder, can I?

It gets below $500 and I start selling motorcycles, trucks, houses to buy much, much more- but it's just no going to happen. Bitcoin hodlers who didn't sell after a drop from $1200 to $500 sure as hell won't panic after a drop from $800 to $500. The panicky and their bitcoins soon part. We hodlers are battle-hardened veterans.

[Walsoraj]

No. Your only job as a speculator is to get rich at everyone else's expense.