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Question: What year will we achieve a new ATH?
2019 - 41 (28.3%)
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2023 - 1 (0.7%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21178759 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (24 posts by 13 users deleted.)
jbreher
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November 16, 2018, 07:48:51 PM
Last edit: November 16, 2018, 08:06:46 PM by jbreher

It doesn't really matter either way. ABC wouldn't have accepted SV blocks even without the checkpoint,

ABC not accepting SV blocks is irrelevant. The goal of the checkpoint is to limit the potential depth of a reorg to the block height of the checkpoint. The attack this is meant to preclude is SV sympathizers secretly mining an ABC chain of empty blocks. If such chain exceeds the cumulative PoW of the public ABC chain, that parallel chan could be released, invalidating all previously-considered-settled txs on what is now an orphaned ABC chain.

Of course, in order to remain a viable mechanism for forestalling such an attack, the checkpointing will need to be performed periodically, as it can only guard against reorgs preceding and including the checkpoint block height.
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JayJuanGee
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November 16, 2018, 07:52:12 PM

https://twitter.com/coinspeak_io/status/1063272025660121090
ABC used a centralized checkpoint to prevent re org. Pro ABC Exchanges were allegedly in on it.
 Huh

Overall, it appears that there were no real BIG surprises in this bcash fork, and it appears that Bcash ABC largely prevailed.. and likely to continue to prevail, at least in terms of the short-term internal bcash battling. 

I think that, overall, bcash should be weaker from the totality of infighting and what the infighting reveals about bcash, but crypto markets can play out so irrationally, so that if there is any kind of bcash pump, there might be others who are willing to join in on such nonsense pumping of shit (or a subset of shit.. which is the product of a fork of shit)...

My ongoing tentatively thinking is that the actual fork of bcash (and the infighting that may or may not settle down in the near future) is mostly bullish for bitcoin, yet bitcoin might be a bit reluctant to pump, still, until there is a bit more purging of bcash nonsense.. which also could take a bit of time to play out when there may be attempts to suggest that the whole bcash fork nonsense has made it stronger, rather than weaker, merely as a means to pump the subset of the shit.. and then supposedly suggest that bcash can serve as some kind of meaningful competitor to bitcoin.. which most of us who are studying the space should realize that perpetrating bcash as having strength is nearly completely based on hopium rather than actual fundamentals that are anywhere close to the ballpark of bitcoin.
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November 16, 2018, 07:54:43 PM
Merited by Toxic2040 (1)

Managed to get back to a computer instead of trying to chart on a mobile phone.  And I don't really like what I see. 

Overview back to 2012 showing build of long term trend line from cryptowinter (weekly)


Overview of 2017 / 2018 showing build of 2017 support line plus 2017 downward trend line (daily)


Zoomed in on daily.  Showing we have fallen through a hole beneath three key trend lines


4 hour view showing our current position in the hole


1 hour view showing our current failure to break out of the hole


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November 16, 2018, 07:56:14 PM

Rastani throws in the towel, capitulation begins

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fRCYQz6EAAY

That guy is one of Max Keiser's little minions.  I don't pay attention to him much so I don't really know if he's legit or some type of CNBC fast money con artist, but in his videos he pretends like market manipulation does not exist, shakeouts don't exist, and every market is a completely aggregate market without whales causing bad signals.  In other words, just about everything he said in that video makes zero sense for someone like me that actually knows how this scam of a market trades.  Bitcoin is 99.9% market manipulation and virtually nothing to do with short term TA.

Where in his video does he mention that the entire bitcoin market is controlled by a signal entity operating on Bitfinex since the price was $200???  Where in his video does he mention $600 million in Tether was created out of thin air right before this move, all in the hands of a single entity?  The bitcoin market does not exist.  It's literally one single entity rigging the price.  The identity of this entity on ScamFinex is either some TBTF bank like Goldman Sachs, Bitmain, or the ESF.
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November 16, 2018, 08:00:04 PM

The charts look terrible. Crud.
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November 16, 2018, 08:06:23 PM

The charts look terrible. Crud.
Oh come. Hairy does his best. This little dip is not entirely his fault. Probably.
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November 16, 2018, 08:06:57 PM

The charts look terrible. Crud.
Oh come. Hairy does his best. He is foreign, you know.

You mean (((foreign)))
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November 16, 2018, 08:08:24 PM

You mean (((foreign)))


Aaaaah, the three brackets, the pleasure they bring...
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November 16, 2018, 08:15:26 PM
Last edit: November 16, 2018, 08:26:12 PM by HairyMaclairy

An attempt at predicting trading channel from here - much lower certainty on this:



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November 16, 2018, 08:19:32 PM

https://twitter.com/coinspeak_io/status/1063272025660121090
ABC used a centralized checkpoint to prevent re org. Pro ABC Exchanges were allegedly in on it.
 Huh

(maybe repost - no time to read thread. back soon)

It doesn't really matter either way. ABC wouldn't have accepted SV blocks even without the checkpoint, so the narrative that it's somehow "cheating" makes no sense, and the checkpoint also doesn't prevent any likely attacks, so it's pointless centralization. These guys still haven't figured out how consensus systems work...

Isn't that part of the point about why bcash attackers are harping on this event?  They are not really harping on it because of whether it is effective or fair, but rather whether it shows that bcash is a kind of phoney that tries to act like it is similar to bitcoin in terms of the decentralized aspects, but when push comes to shove, bcash has a lot of ability to muster up whatever level of decision making that it needs to, even when it does not need to, because it does not even come close to the same ballpark as bitcoin when it comes to decentralization (even while holding itself out, pie in the sky as it even seems to them sometimes, as the "real" bitcoin's vision (pun not intended)).
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November 16, 2018, 08:19:42 PM

Trading channel?  Do you think $600 million in Tethers were created out of thin air to create a trading channel right below the previous trading channel?  The only possible thing that could be going on is the dump is either a shakeout before a rise, or this thing is about to get shorted literally into the ground.  Regardless, do not sell.  We need as many shoeshine boys as possible to dump the second the scammers running BitFinex attempt to pump it again.
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November 16, 2018, 08:22:26 PM

Is it "Bag on Hairy" Friday already?
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November 16, 2018, 08:23:18 PM

In the midst of this despair, I just wanted to surface the observation that anybody who has been holding bitcoin for more the thirteen months is in the green.

That is all.
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November 16, 2018, 08:23:45 PM
Last edit: November 16, 2018, 08:59:08 PM by JayJuanGee

If there had been significant upward pressure, then we wouldn't have been stuck at ~$6.5k for so long. I predict that ~$5.5k will be "the new $6.5k" for a while, maintaining relative stability with periodic bouncing.

I suspect that we're on a long-term slow downward trend until either the next halving or until something major happens (eg. ETFs, maybe certain global events, etc.).


Ooow long term downward from this point to halving....
Ain’t not much gonna be left by Then, so you suggest HARD times for HODLERS?

Going on full honeybadger BTFD mode for 2 years?

Cancel all future party meetings and luxury shit buyings, its hibernate time.

I can accept all of the narratives BTC had to follow, but i hope its not this one you are saying
 That been Said HOdL through all the F***ing bear market and time to change my avatar to a lebowski HAT Wink

(Perhaps a theymos HAT ? )
XhomerX can get all of the jobs done Grin

I think that sometimes theymos, realist as he may seem to be, can sometimes end up arguing a bit too much on the bearish side of bitcoin matters.  It has been shown in the past.  hahahahahaha   in other words, take theymos's predictions with a grain of salt.   Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy


Edit:
Theymos's analysis makes lots of sense, but the corn is a proven dealer of surprises. Wait and see, I guess.

Hahahahaha.. this is what I was trying to say.
HairyMaclairy
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November 16, 2018, 08:24:21 PM

Is it "Bag on Hairy" Friday already?

Doing an image search for "bag on hairy" is not recommended. 
JayJuanGee
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November 16, 2018, 08:26:00 PM

If there had been significant upward pressure, then we wouldn't have been stuck at ~$6.5k for so long. I predict that ~$5.5k will be "the new $6.5k" for a while, maintaining relative stability with periodic bouncing.

I suspect that we're on a long-term slow downward trend until either the next halving or until something major happens (eg. ETFs, maybe certain global events, etc.).



Unless some major event happens like you said, this is exactly going to happen like it happened in 2014-2017. That means even under $3k is a possibility now.

Maybe BAKKT can reverse the bearish trend but I don't raise my hopes too high.

See you all in 2022  Grin It will be a pure vomitfest from now on. 3 maybe 4 painful diskusting years are ahead.

Missed the Gox bubble, missed the tether bubble too. Fuck my life. >:-(

What a party poop!!!!!!     Sad Sad Sad Sad       Tongue Tongue
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November 16, 2018, 08:26:06 PM

JayJuanGee, you're never getting into Valhalla with posts like these.
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November 16, 2018, 08:37:45 PM

So the general consensus is we’re going to continue to drop for years?

Well fuck me, we might as well sell everything now then?

Seriously though, if true that’s pretty depressing. How are we supposed to deal with that?

 Undecided


First of all.. just because a bunch of previous bull leaning folks are saying this does not necessarily mean that they are correct about what is going to happen, and such negative sentiment does cause a decent amount of incentive to fuck up the shorts that are created in reliance of such seemingly persistent negative sentiment(s).

Second,
I don't see any reason for HODLers to do anything different than they usually do, which is largely to HODL through the whole thing.  Of course, you can play around a bit with some dollar cost averaging and buying on dips too... and surely if you end up overbuying a bit in this price range or some future price range (whether lower or higher), then you can sell a bit of those overbought coins to provide yourself with a bit more comfort.

Third, I don't recommend shorting for amateurs, but surely members like d_eddie and perhaps some others (maybe hairybearie) have outlined some ways in which relatively conservative shorts can be established in order to hedge (and provide some insurance).  I personally believe that my methods of incrementalism including DCA and buying on dips and selling small amounts as the price goes up are sufficiently serving well enough for me.. but surely there is decent rationale for at least some conservative playing around with strategically placed hedging shorts... as long as you don't become too disenchanted by starting to employ those tactics and then start to wish for down rather than up... Peeps in this thread would likely NOT want that kind of nonsense (even getting to the very extreme roach level) starting to spew from you, of course.   Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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November 16, 2018, 08:38:33 PM

It has a ring to it: https://www.epsilontheory.com/you-had-a-stamp-collection/

Spectacle, baby, spectacle....
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November 16, 2018, 08:44:59 PM
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Hi Toxic. Many people here discourage bearishness, but there's practically no plausible, short term bullish scenario at this point.

Your take sounds reasonable. I'm crossing my fingers for a bart back up to $6K+, but I'm not holding my breath.

Sup info...
Yea..already feeling pretty blue in the face with this long slow slide. If we are not at the bottom, I do believe its nearly within sight for whatever that is worth..


An attempt at predicting trading channel from here - much lower certainty on this:

I concur.  I have this gut feeling that 5k needs to be tested before we can swing back towards bullishness. #dyor

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