Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[HairyMaclairy]

Is it "Bag on Hairy" Friday already?

Doing an image search for "bag on hairy" is not recommended. 

[JayJuanGee]

If there had been significant upward pressure, then we wouldn't have been stuck at ~$6.5k for so long. I predict that ~$5.5k will be "the new $6.5k" for a while, maintaining relative stability with periodic bouncing.

I suspect that we're on a long-term slow downward trend until either the next halving or until something major happens (eg. ETFs, maybe certain global events, etc.).

Unless some major event happens like you said, this is exactly going to happen like it happened in 2014-2017. That means even under $3k is a possibility now.

Maybe BAKKT can reverse the bearish trend but I don't raise my hopes too high.

See you all in 2022   It will be a pure vomitfest from now on. 3 maybe 4 painful diskusting years are ahead.

Missed the Gox bubble, missed the tether bubble too. Fuck my life. >:-(

What a party poop!!!!!!             

[realr0ach]

JayJuanGee, you're never getting into Valhalla with posts like these.

[JayJuanGee]

So the general consensus is we’re going to continue to drop for years?

Well fuck me, we might as well sell everything now then?

Seriously though, if true that’s pretty depressing. How are we supposed to deal with that?

 

First of all.. just because a bunch of previous bull leaning folks are saying this does not necessarily mean that they are correct about what is going to happen, and such negative sentiment does cause a decent amount of incentive to fuck up the shorts that are created in reliance of such seemingly persistent negative sentiment(s).

Second, I don't see any reason for HODLers to do anything different than they usually do, which is largely to HODL through the whole thing.  Of course, you can play around a bit with some dollar cost averaging and buying on dips too... and surely if you end up overbuying a bit in this price range or some future price range (whether lower or higher), then you can sell a bit of those overbought coins to provide yourself with a bit more comfort.

Third, I don't recommend shorting for amateurs, but surely members like d_eddie and perhaps some others (maybe hairybearie) have outlined some ways in which relatively conservative shorts can be established in order to hedge (and provide some insurance).  I personally believe that my methods of incrementalism including DCA and buying on dips and selling small amounts as the price goes up are sufficiently serving well enough for me.. but surely there is decent rationale for at least some conservative playing around with strategically placed hedging shorts... as long as you don't become too disenchanted by starting to employ those tactics and then start to wish for down rather than up... Peeps in this thread would likely NOT want that kind of nonsense (even getting to the very extreme roach level) starting to spew from you, of course.  

[Wekkel]

It has a ring to it: https://www.epsilontheory.com/you-had-a-stamp-collection/

Spectacle, baby, spectacle....

[Toxic2040]

Hi Toxic. Many people here discourage bearishness, but there's practically no plausible, short term bullish scenario at this point.

Your take sounds reasonable. I'm crossing my fingers for a bart back up to $6K+, but I'm not holding my breath.

Sup info...
Yea..already feeling pretty blue in the face with this long slow slide. If we are not at the bottom, I do believe its nearly within sight for whatever that is worth..

An attempt at predicting trading channel from here - much lower certainty on this:

I concur.  I have this gut feeling that 5k needs to be tested before we can swing back towards bullishness. #dyor

[Fatman3001]

https://twitter.com/checksum0/status/1063495918970970114

More drama

I'll go make some popcorn

[JayJuanGee]

My gf sells on localbitcoins.

The past couple of days she's had some big sales requested.

I told her to ignore them.



Not taking the chance of the price shooting back up right after she's done a sale.

If the amount is small enough, then I don't see any problem with letting the show go on... You know the expression:  "The show must go on." 

I do sometime reduce the amounts that I am willing to sell based on situations in the market, and when the price is moving a lot, sometimes I won't transact until the market settles down a bit.  Furthermore, sometimes I don't mind selling a bit (whether it is 5% above current market rate or even a bit higher) because when the price has suddenly dropped down so much, I have had a shit load of buy orders filling; however, sell orders have not been filled in a long time, so in that sense, my position is not really hurt from shaving off a little bit through some side sale (even though I don't tend to be in the selling mood during times like this).

[Fatman3001]

update

https://twitter.com/checksum0/status/1063532895304859648

[JayJuanGee]

Rastani throws in the towel, capitulation begins

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fRCYQz6EAAY

I watched that about 8 minute long video, and I agree with his conclusion that if certain support levels break, then the probabilities also break; however, I don't agree with his position that any of us should sell now... hahahahaha   

By the way, there is a kind of assumption, in his whole analysis, that bitcoin is a mature market.  Good luck with that assumption... Surely, he could be correct that bitcoin breaks lower than $5k or lower than $4k, but it is likely no way as near as inevitable to break down to those levels as he seems to be arguing to be "likely."

[HairyMaclairy]

I got as far as “when I was making this video yesterday”

Anyone that doesn’t chart in real time is a pussy

[Raja_MBZ]

Don't forget that @micgoossens did warn us only a few days back!

[PoolMinor]

Rastani throws in the towel, capitulation begins

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fRCYQz6EAAY

He's one of my favorite analysts.

TLDW: We're going to $4,000-$4,500

No chance. We’re at the bottom now. I’m buying right now and will keep buying all the way back to $6,500.

I like your hypothesis better, QuestionAuthority, but the others have kind of substantiated their view with external TA or with their own arguments. Why do you think the bottom is in? Please share.

I'd also love to hear a contrarian opinion, like Tera's. Alas, (s)he's not here anymore.

I wish the hopium you guys have was worth something because I would be buying it. The same type of logic that said we would not be going below $6k, yet here we are. Just because you don't understand what TA is, doesn't mean that your opinion holds any weight.

Keep clinging to your stance. I will keep buying all the way down to ~$2200.

[Raja_MBZ]

We now have another faketoshi on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/satoshi/status/1063516638870478848

[infofront]

We now have another faketoshi on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/satoshi/status/1063516638870478848

This is Craig Wright, pretending to be Satoshi again. Apparently, he managed to sign a message with Hal Finney's private key, somehow. (Edit: or he might've pulled up an old Hal Finney signature)

The scuttlebutt is that he signed it in a non-standard way, kind of like when he "signed" a message as Satoshi to convince Gavin that he's Satoshi.

[Last of the V8s]

I do not want to be public, but, there is an issue with CraigWrit. If it is not fixed, there will be nothing but fud and I would have failed. There is every chance that Bitcoin survives anyway and it is important to me that it works. Important enough, that I may be known openly.

[lightfoot]

Eh, it will go to 6502 and get stuck. Again.

[Fatman3001]

We now have another faketoshi on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/satoshi/status/1063516638870478848

This is Craig Wright, pretending to be Satoshi again. Apparently, he managed to sign a message with Hal Finney's private key, somehow. (Edit: or he might've pulled up an old Hal Finney signature)

The scuttlebutt is that he signed it in a non-standard way, kind of like when he "signed" a message as Satoshi to convince Gavin that he's Satoshi.

Unless you know how to check this yourself you might want to wait with the conclusions until some more people who can check this have.

[Raja_MBZ]

We now have another faketoshi on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/satoshi/status/1063516638870478848

This is Craig Wright, pretending to be Satoshi again. Apparently, he managed to sign a message with Hal Finney's private key, somehow. (Edit: or he might've pulled up an old Hal Finney signature)

The scuttlebutt is that he signed it in a non-standard way, kind of like when he "signed" a message as Satoshi to convince Gavin that he's Satoshi.

Seems like Craig did PhD in handling multiple Twitter accounts, not in Computer Science.

[JayJuanGee]

Rastani throws in the towel, capitulation begins

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fRCYQz6EAAY

I watched that about 8 minute long video, and I agree with his conclusion that if certain support levels break, then the probabilities also break; however, I don't agree with his position that any of us should sell now... hahahahaha   

By the way, there is a kind of assumption, in his whole analysis, that bitcoin is a mature market.  Good luck with that assumption... Surely, he could be correct that bitcoin breaks lower than $5k or lower than $4k, but it is likely no way as near as inevitable to break down to those levels as he seems to be arguing to be "likely."

By the way, after i watched the above nonsense video, another better video came up in my cue - which is worth sharing, here, which was a one hour discussion from yesterday, I believe, between Adam Meister and Trace Mayer.

[video=youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jN5uZXcwLlE[/video]

There are a few moments in which Trace is either a bit too brutal (on no-coiners, those distracted by shitcoin and those who don't take enough personal security measures with their bitcoin), and even seemed to have been patting himself on his back a bit much, but nontheless, there seems to some brutal truth, too, in what he is asserting in terms of distinguishing between what bitcoin offers, as compared with the other snake-oil crap that is out there... and even the discussion of making sure that you are neither distracted by the voluminous white noise in the space nor shook out of your bitcoins.

Even though Trace is likely correct that more personal security in securing your bitcoin needs to be of a very high priority for HODLers, his solutions seem to neither be user-friendly nor in the grasp of a very large number of regular people... so his seeming discounting of security of the trezor and ledger storage solutions seems to be a bit too hyperbolic, at least from my perspective about reasonable and adequate personal security measures.

I have heard him in other interviews, however, suggest that level of personal security will also relate to how much value that a person is trying to secure in bitcoin, and as the value of the coin goes up, the amount of effort in security has to go up too.. so in that regard, the higher the value of the bitcoins the greater the security measures that peeps are going to need to take to secure their coins.