Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Biodom]

The odds of a party or the odds of $100k?!

LOL...if btc will be at $100K, a party will happen (99.99% probability in my guesstimate )

[Icygreen]

Ride or die mother fucker it'll be like Thelma and Louise, I'll hold your hand off that cliff.

Sent my first Bitstamp wire since 2017.  Starting to put some of my fiat bags at the bottom of the cliff. Mustn’t hurry. Hasten slowly.

Not up on bitstamp news? Deposits and withdrawals suck big time. There is a lot of stamp hate on reddit these days. Took me 6 frackin weeks to get some fiat from those sobs.

I don’t visit Reddit.  How about inbound deposits?  I sent the wire over the weekend so will give it a week to clear and then see what’s up. 

I've done the same. Hopefully this one gets through.  Have to admit I felt nervous about throwing my $$$$'s into BTC for the first time in a long time. Must be the psychological jump needed near the bottom

[d_eddie]

1 On the 30 minute chart, quasibarts, quasi-head'n'shoulders, and a stepwise decay.


1


2 A wider view on the 6 hour scale shows two similar but steeper, scarier stairs preceded by smaller oscillations, on similar and much longer timeframes.  Bractals, as in fast barts flowering on top of long slow squat barts. Our current timescale looks like a couple of small grainy mammoths at the end of the chart (the first is slanted).

(A question for learned problem solvers: can similar patterns be spotted in the past bear cycles? 2013? 2014? Serious.)

2


On the basis of such sophisticated PA (Poetic Analysis, a strictly qualitative discipline), I managed to feed new fuel into my short, green again at last.  Now she can go back down or further if she so wishes, but I'd like her to revisit at least  the 4.2-4.3 region, just for the good ol'times, baby.  I'm not calling it, just to be clear.  She can't be tamed.

[JayJuanGee]

You are a wreck.

 ok.gif

I am thinking something like this:






or this:





 

[Icygreen]

$7.... at the time of... Sheeiiit, Dat's like two-fiddy today.
Fug it, I'll drink.  It does have bottom on it!

[Paashaas]

I wonder what is the estimated probability for a 100K party within 5 years from today (in regulars opinion).

IMHO, 10%. Granted, going into 2018 I thought that it is close to 80-90%.

IMO $100k per coin will be reached within 5 years.

The road from $100k to $1m will be the same rollercoaster as going from $10k to $100k.

We haven't seen anything yet, consider Bitcoins enormous potential with only 21m ~18m coins.....(mindblowing numbers)

[Paashaas]

Always remember:

[goldkingcoiner]

$7.... at the time of... Sheeiiit, Dat's like two-fiddy today.
Fug it, I'll drink.  It does have bottom on it!

In Bavaria, you would be killed for this.

These several references to the airplane series causes me to want to rewatch some of those, and your graphic skills come with some quite hilarious twists..., homer .

Surely, you must be joking.

[HairyMaclairy]

Edge of the precipice

[d_eddie]

But they only lived 40 years if they were lucky.

Suicide was practically non existent among indigenous tribes.  It's clear that modern society is ruining peoples mental health and happiness.

There wasn't much time to think about suicide is my guess.

The Hobbesian "nasty brutish and short" fallacy again.

OK. I've just read about that (life expectancy vs. span) and I now see your point, which however doesn't change the big picture. Low average means that if you pick one existence at random among the actual ones that there were, you are likely to be cut off before you taste, say, the joy of sex. In other words, not everyone can be Plinius' aunt.

I agree that a hunter-gatherer life, if purged of the inevitable brutality, is more fun in mostly any way. No boss but the priest. Easier women. Not much to fear from your peers (except for the other gang, well they too will eat you for obvious reasons, but that's just normal).

[HairyMaclairy]

You know if any of you want to become hunter gatherers you can.  Plenty of room in the Artic. 

[Biodom]

I wonder what is the estimated probability for a 100K party within 5 years from today (in regulars opinion).

IMHO, 10%. Granted, going into 2018 I thought that it is close to 80-90%.

IMO $100k per coin will be reached within 5 years.

The road from $100k to $1m will be the same rollercoaster as going from $10k to $100k.

We haven't seen anything yet, consider Bitcoins enormous potential with only 21m ~18m coins.....(mindblowing numbers)

I'll pick up this argument even though I would like nothing more than 100k (or more).
Points:

1. Bitcoin is showing a propensity for too much volatility. It is OK for a $1bil asset to decline more than 80%, but it is different (inappropriate) for a $300-350bil asset. It should have shown a bit more maturity. It did not.
It is still barely hanging within respectable params, but below $2.8K (85-86% decline) all bets would be off.

2. Apart from lightning that is making good progress, what exactly is happening, technology wise? Last time I checked blockchain.com wallet has about 80-90% similarity to the 2014 version.

3. "They" did a job on us with the futures and now gloat about it. No matter, "they" will be the ones to miss more powerful bitcoin when their SHTF.

4. Nobody have a slightest idea where bitcoin is going price-wise and why. A gigantic gap in future valuation estimates (between nothing and 100tril) shows that the matter is not settled even after millions of people first learned of bitcoin in the fall of 2013.

[RoomBot]

I wonder what is the estimated probability for a 100K party within 5 years from today (in regulars opinion).

IMHO, 10%. Granted, going into 2018 I thought that it is close to 80-90%.

IMO $100k per coin will be reached within 5 years.

The road from $100k to $1m will be the same rollercoaster as going from $10k to $100k.

We haven't seen anything yet, consider Bitcoins enormous potential with only 21m ~18m coins.....(mindblowing numbers)

Forgive me for being 1,111 pages behind, ( TL:DR) but with all the DUST, lost seeds, lost hard drives and basic human stupidity, I think there is far less BTC really out there.

[HairyMaclairy]

Fucking hell

[realr0ach]

Ok. See. Right there is one of the reasons I outright ignored JJG.

Even though I'm pretty sure JayJuanGee is a Google chat bot that just cut and pastes things from dictionaries, from an outside, non-biased perspective, I would say he has more shitcoin credibility due to the fact BOB was telling everyone NOT to sell at the top while he was dumping everything.  Then he typed something like "thanks guys, I'm now a millionaire" right after.  It was something resembling an altcoin pump and dump group from the year 2013.

He didn't say it once, but numerous times telling all the other shitcoiners in the thread not to sell while he was.  Lucky for Bob, I seem to be the only person that remembers that.

[realr0ach]

IMO $100k per coin will be reached within 5 years.

You don't seem to be aware that even with one more halving, for the price to rise to $100k, the amount of mining would also need to rise an order of magnitude...or more, and then bitcoin would probably use more power than the entire United States.  If you claim that scenario is plausible, you are either a scammer or have a peanut brain.  

There is a limit to how high these imaginary, valueless tokens can be pump and dumped due to the PoW mechanism.  The only reason it was able to go as high as it did was because Bitmain still had mostly a monopoly on the entire sector, which means the price can then vastly diverge from cost of production.  If people like Samsung and whoever else bring in competition, the cost of production will then need to be raised much higher in order to successfully pump up the price.

TLDR:  the more centralized a coin is, the easier it is to pump something.  Bitcoin is almost completely centralized by Bitmain mining and in-house market rigging, which is why the price went up a lot.  If other people bring competition in mining, there will be no $20k coin prices with a $3k cost of production ever.

[d_eddie]

A little shake down...

... and one up.

[becoin]

Fucking hell

Why?
I love to gobble up cheap coins!

[d_eddie]

Fucking hell

Why?
I love to gobble up cheap coins!

Call me paranoid, but I just see quickening stop hunting expeditions.

When I suspect some of this jabberwockery might be coming, I like to open an opposing position, preventively set up to cash out asap. The preventive setup is essential for platforms where the system just gets "too busy" to place/edit orders on fast movements - if they don't plain disconnect you, which just happened to me.

And keep the leverage/exposition low, low, low. They will fuck with you if the position's "too big not to fail".

/paranoia

[becoin]

Fucking hell

Why?
I love to gobble up cheap coins!

Call me paranoid, but I just see quickening stop hunting expeditions.

I love to hunt stop hunters!