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Question: When will bitcoin reach the top of this bull market (i.e. when will it moon)?
Topped at $13,880 in June - 10 (6.9%)
H2 2019 - 15 (10.3%)
H1 2020 - 27 (18.6%)
H2 2020 - 26 (17.9%)
H1 2021 - 12 (8.3%)
H2 2021 - 28 (19.3%)
H1 2022 - 6 (4.1%)
H2 2022 - 4 (2.8%)
H1 2023 - 0 (0%)
H2 2023 - 2 (1.4%)
2024 or Later - 15 (10.3%)
Total Voters: 145

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21287556 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (102 posts by 19 users deleted.)
realr0ach
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March 18, 2019, 11:56:07 AM

Goodbye debt serf usury:

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BTFD, on to 15K a coin !!!!


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March 18, 2019, 11:58:52 AM

^
Yeah we know #BUYBTC
Phil_S
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March 18, 2019, 12:00:40 PM



j/k

do it.  Grin
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March 18, 2019, 12:03:12 PM

The police is investigating the shooting at the #24oktoberplein in Utrecht this morning. An possible terrorist motif is part of the investigation.

@politieutrecht

 Angry
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March 18, 2019, 12:03:13 PM

Regarding scenarios for adjusting your position or taking some kind of action?  I wonder what those would be.  A new bottom or something close to $3,122 might change your plan, and then I suppose if BTC prices go up too quickly, you might want to shave a bit of BTC off, too, I would think.

I might consider taking a leveraged long in 2021.  But frankly at this stage I am done with trading for the time being.*.  There is no chance of me selling and any further buys will require new money rather than recycled money, so would only dribble in at best.  


*I reserve the right to change my mind at a later date.
HairyMaclairy
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March 18, 2019, 12:09:41 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), micgoossens (1)

I capitulated today.  Am now 100% cold hodl storage Bitcoin for my crypto portfolio.   No fiat reserves left at all and no open trading positions.  Am completely committed to the bandwagon.  

I have also increased my Bitcoin stack by 58% since 1 December 2017 so good outcome there.

Time will tell if I have moved too early but I believe the risk of any meaningful downside is now gone.  

I am curious. Were you mostly naked short or short-against-the box?
Which platform did you use, if I may ask?
AFAIK, Bitmex is not opened for US.
This is very academic to me since I don't have time to do any real-time trading these days.


To be honest, shorting was not very profitable for me.  I made profits but they were not as much as I expected and it took a lot of mental effort and planning.  On balance I think shorting on Bitmex was a waste of time because you are holding Bitcoin the whole time and the value of your stash is going down just as much as you are gaining in BTC (unless you run high leverage and that’s too dangerous).

I sold half my stack at an average of $11,500 and held cash and rebought at an average of something like $5,000 and that gave me pretty much all my BTC profits.    

I don’t think I will short again on Bitmex, it was fun but not worth it financially for all the risk you take. 
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March 18, 2019, 12:12:37 PM

Just read that in Holland (Utrecht) was another shooting on a tram
Could be an act of terror but not sure yet, still not to much news
Hopefully it isn’t to bad

Two explosions in Malmö last night, but that's so common nowadays that people are used to it.
Sad but true. One of the explosions was probably just fireworks, but the other blew out the entrance to a night club. It was closed for the night, so no injuries.
https://www.thelocal.se/20190318/nightclub-entrance-damaged-in-malm-blast
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March 18, 2019, 12:12:57 PM
Merited by BTCMILLIONAIRE (1)

Just saw this book.  Not sure if the specifics of this guy's analysis is accurate or not, but seems like one of the few people writing books about the energy EROI phenomenon (thermodynamic collapse of oil extraction/transportation/refinement process) that will probably blow up 1st world nations:

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Life-After-Growth-global-economy-ebook/dp/B00F3D8M2C

Some people overdo the doom scenario so I don't know if this guy does or not.  Like I said the other day, I think the US has 100 years of coal to power house electricity (plus nuclear and such on top of that), so it's not like the lights should be turning off; but there's no real substitute for powering cars and planes, and most countries are designed around tons of pointless, unsustainable commuting.  It also means Jewish moneychanger globalization is effectively dead in the water and power structures (and everything else) will be far more localized.
Why do you keep ignoring nuclear power plants? Charge batteries with those fuckers and you've got a substitute for powering cars. And nuclear fusion will without a doubt be a thing within 100 years, as well as much more efficient solar panels.

If you look at an actual map, there are already A SHIT TON of nuclear plants in the US.  Building tons more of the things would probably be a mega-disaster waiting to happen.  Probably already is a mega-disaster waiting to happen. In the event of some type of natural catastrophe where those things can't be maintained and all melt down and leak shit everywhere, I wouldn't be surprised if it's game over for a lot of life on earth (or at least the northern hemisphere) as is.  

Like the Yellowstone volcano for instance.  Okay, it creates some nuclear winter for a few years and makes 3/4ths of the US uninhabitable but it's not that huge of a deal...except if the dozens and dozens of nuclear plants in all those states are abandoned and all go Fukushima.  It looks like they've actually planned this out in advance if you look at their locations, but still, I wouldn't be surprised to see dozens of the ones west of the Appalachian mountains abandoned:


Interesting watch on nuclear power if you're afraid of it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ciStnd9Y2ak
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March 18, 2019, 12:13:55 PM


I capitulated today.  Am now 100% cold hodl storage Bitcoin for my crypto portfolio.   No fiat reserves left at all and no open trading positions.  Am completely committed to the bandwagon.  

I have also increased my Bitcoin stack by 58% since 1 December 2017 so good outcome there.

Time will tell if I have moved too early but I believe the risk of any meaningful downside is now gone. 

This...is the kind of hubris that the Bitcoin market routinely punishes.

just sayin'

Of course that is true.

There is always some risk of meaningful downside.

The 2018-2019 bear market might not be long enough to be complete yet, so I would say that the risk of significant downside is still relatively high, but diminishing with each passing month.

At a rough guess , the probabilities favour the bottom being in, but only just...perhaps 40% chance of a new low later this year.

In other words, bull market?  hahahahahaha

Anyhow, currently, as I type, we have a bit more than a $800 gap between current price and most recent bottom of $3,122.  So it is possible to bounce around within the gap and without breaching the bottom.  Of course, if BTC prices get closer to the bottom, such as below $3,500, then folks will begin to become worried that the bottom is going to be tested again.

You are almost more bullish than me, with that 40% number, while I am like a broken record that is still stuck on 52% (I'm a lagging indicator  Cry Cry), until additional facts play out.
HairyMaclairy
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March 18, 2019, 12:16:30 PM


I capitulated today.  Am now 100% cold hodl storage Bitcoin for my crypto portfolio.   No fiat reserves left at all and no open trading positions.  Am completely committed to the bandwagon.  

I have also increased my Bitcoin stack by 58% since 1 December 2017 so good outcome there.

Time will tell if I have moved too early but I believe the risk of any meaningful downside is now gone. 

This...is the kind of hubris that the Bitcoin market routinely punishes.

just sayin'

Hewp I’m being threatened with a green dildo
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March 18, 2019, 12:27:27 PM


I capitulated today.  Am now 100% cold hodl storage Bitcoin for my crypto portfolio.   No fiat reserves left at all and no open trading positions.  Am completely committed to the bandwagon.  

I have also increased my Bitcoin stack by 58% since 1 December 2017 so good outcome there.

Time will tell if I have moved too early but I believe the risk of any meaningful downside is now gone. 

This...is the kind of hubris that the Bitcoin market routinely punishes.

just sayin'

Of course that is true.

There is always some risk of meaningful downside.

The 2018-2019 bear market might not be long enough to be complete yet, so I would say that the risk of significant downside is still relatively high, but diminishing with each passing month.

At a rough guess , the probabilities favour the bottom being in, but only just...perhaps 40% chance of a new low later this year.

In other words, bull market?  hahahahahaha

Anyhow, currently, as I type, we have a bit more than a $800 gap between current price and most recent bottom of $3,122.  So it is possible to bounce around within the gap and without breaching the bottom.  Of course, if BTC prices get closer to the bottom, such as below $3,500, then folks will begin to become worried that the bottom is going to be tested again.

You are almost more bullish than me, with that 40% number, while I am like a broken record that is still stuck on 52% (I'm a lagging indicator  Cry Cry), until additional facts play out.
This sideways shit is just too much to constantly deal with because what you pointed out. We're only $800 from the bottom, which is a bit of wiggle room but definitely possible to break in a few minutes. It feels like we have that slow growth and we need to just drudge through the shit.
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March 18, 2019, 12:32:42 PM

Just read that in Holland (Utrecht) was another shooting on a tram
Could be an act of terror but not sure yet, still not to much news
Hopefully it isn’t to bad

Shootings on multiple locations and the suspect(s) is still missing.
One confirmed dead and multiple injured. The Netherlands is currently in a state of emergency.
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March 18, 2019, 12:37:00 PM

Regarding scenarios for adjusting your position or taking some kind of action?  I wonder what those would be.  A new bottom or something close to $3,122 might change your plan, and then I suppose if BTC prices go up too quickly, you might want to shave a bit of BTC off, too, I would think.

I might consider taking a leveraged long in 2021.  But frankly at this stage I am done with trading for the time being.*.  There is no chance of me selling and any further buys will require new money rather than recycled money, so would only dribble in at best.  


*I reserve the right to change my mind at a later date.

It is almost that you can take a break from this thread too.

Recall in the $8k arena and March/april 2018 time frame you said something very similar, but I suppose that a lot of us had already assumed that the February 2018 bottom of $6k was in, until it was not.  This time is different?  perhaps? I suppose if the bottom is really in, and BTC prices don't really go below $3,500 in the coming months, then you are going to be able to rest assured, but I suspect if BTC prices go blow $3,500 you are going to start to worry, and maybe you won't worry too much (since you already might be prepared for that), unless BTC prices go below $3,300, then it is going to begin to appear much more likely that prior support at $3,122 is going to be challenged again, and might be breached.   We will see.  We will see.
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March 18, 2019, 12:37:54 PM

Just read that in Holland (Utrecht) was another shooting on a tram
Could be an act of terror but not sure yet, still not to much news
Hopefully it isn’t to bad

Shootings on multiple locations and the suspect(s) is still missing.
One confirmed dead and multiple injured. The Netherlands is currently in a state of emergency.
Another attack like the on that happened in Paris? It originally sounded like not many victims.
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March 18, 2019, 12:48:16 PM


I capitulated today.  Am now 100% cold hodl storage Bitcoin for my crypto portfolio.   No fiat reserves left at all and no open trading positions.  Am completely committed to the bandwagon.  

I have also increased my Bitcoin stack by 58% since 1 December 2017 so good outcome there.

Time will tell if I have moved too early but I believe the risk of any meaningful downside is now gone. 

This...is the kind of hubris that the Bitcoin market routinely punishes.

just sayin'

Of course that is true.

There is always some risk of meaningful downside.

The 2018-2019 bear market might not be long enough to be complete yet, so I would say that the risk of significant downside is still relatively high, but diminishing with each passing month.

At a rough guess , the probabilities favour the bottom being in, but only just...perhaps 40% chance of a new low later this year.

In other words, bull market?  hahahahahaha

Anyhow, currently, as I type, we have a bit more than a $800 gap between current price and most recent bottom of $3,122.  So it is possible to bounce around within the gap and without breaching the bottom.  Of course, if BTC prices get closer to the bottom, such as below $3,500, then folks will begin to become worried that the bottom is going to be tested again.

You are almost more bullish than me, with that 40% number, while I am like a broken record that is still stuck on 52% (I'm a lagging indicator  Cry Cry), until additional facts play out.
This sideways shit is just too much to constantly deal with because what you pointed out. We're only $800 from the bottom, which is a bit of wiggle room but definitely possible to break in a few minutes. It feels like we have that slow growth and we need to just drudge through the shit.

I am surely not opposed to a lot of sideways, and even the trickling up is far from guaranteed, because as you mentioned, we all know how much gain can be purged in a very short period of time....

This kind of market behavior does happen when the bottom is in, too.. but a similar thing seemed to have been happening at supra $6k, until it wasn't... that is part of the problem of becoming too assured. 

On a personal note, I am quite biased towards up, too... It is not like I have much fiat available to buy more BTC.  It is like less than 2%.. so I am 98% for up... and I seem to recall that I was mostly prepared for up in the $6k price arena too, something between 96% and 97%, so it is not like I have been able to buy very much BTC in this $3k to $6k price range...
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March 18, 2019, 01:00:24 PM

I am also flat at the moment, and buying the dips whenever I have a chance. I hope for a slow rise where I can scalp a few conservative longs, but I know the road ahead is likely bumpy.
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March 18, 2019, 01:03:59 PM

Interesting watch on nuclear power if you're afraid of it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ciStnd9Y2ak

Well, I haven't done a personal inventory of all these US reactors, but I was under the assumption most of these things are 70's and 80's construction and technology and are not really built to deal with prolonged grid failures, epic CME events, sitting unmanned for years due to a Yellowstone event, etc.
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March 18, 2019, 01:16:59 PM

Got this from while scrolling news feed.



This is an clear example how media fabricate the news,that how we need to hear it from the actual scenario.
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March 18, 2019, 01:25:47 PM

Got this from while scrolling news feed.



This is an clear example how media fabricate the news,that how we need to hear it from the actual scenario.

F*ck religion it's the root of all evil Cool
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March 18, 2019, 01:32:27 PM
Last edit: March 18, 2019, 01:47:49 PM by Last of the V8s

http://woodcoin.info/2019/03/16/the-environmental-case-against-fiat/


huh had no idea funkenstein was still with us tbh
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