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I wouldn't sell shit If I knew BTC was going to stabilize at $100k.
Yeah, but that is the problem, mindrust.
We don't really know. We just have a bunch of hunches and fractals, etc etc.
Some guys (and gal) have stronger hunches than others, I mean maybe some folks have better inclinations about where the price might be going or likelihoods that it is going to go there, but we still should not be betting 100% even if we think that the odds are 80%. Furthermore, even though some folks proclaim that they believe odds are 80%, but there is almost no fucking way that the odds to go up to $100k by sometime before the end of 2021 can be that strong.
So one thing is having a good hunch how far BTC price is going up and another thing is having decently strong theories regarding the bottom of the next run.
Don't even be using the word stable and bitcoin in the same sentence.
the most likely thing is that bitcoin is going to be unstable for the next 20 years or perhaps more... whether you are talking about getting stuck at $100k or even getting stuck between $10k and $20k. Seems that neither state of stable is coming to bitcoin any time soon.
My biggest reason is, other than getting the physical stuff that I wanted for years, most people will be selling (for the same reasons which I just told) and It will drive the price down no matter what you do.
You should still be able to get some of the things that you like, but probably you still have to be careful about how you plan that consumption game and the extent to which you personally are ready to start engaging in consumption rather than continuing to allow a decent amount of your BTC stash to continue to work, whether it is working in the form of BTC or if you are planning to buy back with some of the fiat proceeds.
You gotta be ready and probably you have to have a decent amount of volatility cushion, since one of the most inevitable dynamics in bitcoin currently, and into the relevant and material near term future (I would consider the next 20 years to be relevant and material for BTC HODLers in their 30s or even 40s) is going to continue to be volatility.... nearly inevitable as several of us acknowledge on a repeated and regular basis.
If you sell at $50k and 50k/btc will make you incredibly rich (in other means you won't be crying if btc keeps going up), then there might also be a possibility in the future to get your bitcoins back for a cheaper price because, many people will be selling from those prices and drive the prices down. Even though you don't really care but the opportunity will (or might) be there.
You should be setting your sell quantities at prices that you want, and fuck whatever the BTC price is going to do. Your sell amount at each given price should give you pleasure no matter what BTC price does. That's why I keep suggesting to snap out of the all or nothing (and gambling) mindset... which understandably remains difficult for you to do because you keep relapsing back into it.,, with your various "what ifs?" Your sell increments and amounts should be set in such a way that the largely settle down the vast majority of you "what if" questions.
Have you gone through the exercise? Have you created an excel spreadsheet that attempts to project your cash flow and to play around with it? Once you do that and go through it for a while (maybe you have to spend a week on such project), then your questions should just become a matter of tweaking here or there and then attempting to see if you are largely going to be able to comply with your own projections when BIG daddy bitcoin goes on her exponentially upwards tear (not inevitable, merely projected as likely, which means that it might not happen).
Wanting to sell is not the same thing as wanting to get rid of btc, no no no.
Should not be the case with long term BTC HODLers, as long as you still want to continue to hold at least some, even through difficult times.
It is just playing your cards right, using the opportunity to become even richer.
I can see a bit of evil coming into your eye, about now. hahahahahaha.. thinking about playing BIGGER than you should be thinking.
My cool price is exactly $100k right now. Any coins I'd sell from $100k, I won't be missing them. Any price under $100k would make me nervous (what if it keeps going up)
You are putting a lot of weight on just one number. Remember that $5,000 was merely double of $2,500, and a few years ago (before fall of 2016), a decent number of people would have proclaimed you to be quite crazy to be thinking that BTC could get above $5k for any sustainable amount of time. I just .. think that your mindset still continues to think, too much, in terms of absolutes, and the various prices are just percentages of other prices, including $100k being merely 5x larger than our previous blow off top ATH of $19,666...