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Question: Next Bubble Top (resulting in a new ATH):
Will never reach a new ATH - 9 (7.7%)
$20,000-$49,999 - 24 (20.5%)
$50,000-$99,999 - 29 (24.8%)
$100,000-$149,999 - 23 (19.7%)
$150,000-$199,999 - 9 (7.7%)
$200,000-$249,999 - 7 (6%)
$250,000-$299,999 - 2 (1.7%)
$300,000-$350,000 - 1 (0.9%)
>$350,000 - 13 (11.1%)
Total Voters: 117

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21505014 times)
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October 30, 2019, 10:18:09 AM
Merited by lightfoot (2), BobLawblaw (1)

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October 30, 2019, 10:23:25 AM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (2)

https://twitter.com/jwilliamsfstmed/status/1189318156839510016?s=21

This one just stays one of my favorites
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October 30, 2019, 10:27:06 AM

@Darc_Binance
Honestly, at this point, not owning any #Bitcoin is a financial risk.

https://twitter.com/thecryptodog/status/1189454463964254208?s=21



Who agrees?
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October 30, 2019, 10:31:27 AM

@Darc_Binance
Honestly, at this point, not owning any #Bitcoin is a financial risk.

https://twitter.com/thecryptodog/status/1189454463964254208?s=21



Who agrees?

WO’s at first Smiley
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October 30, 2019, 10:34:37 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

@Darc_Binance
Honestly, at this point, not owning any #Bitcoin is a financial risk.

https://twitter.com/thecryptodog/status/1189454463964254208?s=21



Who agrees?

I do.
Not only for obvious Stock to Flow reasoning, but als for this:


Quote
A Random Walk Down Wall Street + #bitcoin



https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1138457543741714432?s=20


Even in a very conservative portfolio, Bitcoin has the capacity to create allocation with more yield and less risk (stochastic dominance) over SPX investing (pls note that Equity returns have been quaite spectacular lately).

EDIT:
Another way of looking at the same phenomenon:

Quote
5% #Bitcoin + 95% cash beats S&P500: more return and less risk .. every year, 6 years in a row. Note that max yearly loss (risk) of 5% Bitcoin + 95% cash is -5% .. S&P did -6% in 2018 (and -38% in 2008!!).



https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1135848796091506688?s=20

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October 30, 2019, 10:48:27 AM

October ends in a day and a half and it doesn't look like we are going to reach $16k any time soon. (by soon I mean in a week) Maybe it will be different in November. We may try 8k one more time. Hopefully this will be the last time.

My feeling (of course, bitcoin is unpredictable, so I may be wrong) is that November will be no different and we will not see 5 figures any time soon (not this year, at least, not for a significant amount of time, short spikes are possible). The sudden spike on 26th was very impressive, but bitcoin failed to break out of downward channel, so I presume that it continues. I hope it will bounce up somewhere in $6500 to $5800 region...
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October 30, 2019, 10:51:22 AM

grr
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October 30, 2019, 11:12:17 AM

Please do not let this get out but if there is anything I fear as a capitalist, libertarian, anti government free radical is the possibility of all of the liberals and governments buying all of my bitcoins.

I wake up nightly fearing that this may happen. What if they get all of the bitcoin? Then we are all doomed and you all know it. Fiat will win. Game over.

Do not let "them" know this dark secret. It would devastate us all and they would walk away the victors. At that point I would surely need to admit that communism is the best and Karl Marx is a genius.

Governments attempting to buy all of the bitcoins remains the wetdream for anyone holding bitcoins.

There is no way that they can buy all of the bitcoins, and it would just cause the BTC price to go up exponentially and in an out of control manner.

When I have been reading about the supposed fears of the government buying all of the bitcoin as some kind of supposed meaningful threat vector, I just consider it as a kind of weak attempt at reverse psychology. 

Governments are not going to buy anything that they can reasonably attempt to steal from us.  So in that regard, each of us has a responsibility to take meaningful attempts at protecting both privacy and fungibility so that they do not rob us from our bitcoins in any kind of meaningful or systematic way
I agree with this but on the flip side, if Governments dont buy up Bitcoin then they can end up severely behind if other countries decided to do so.

All it will take is one country to decide that they are going to buy up all the bitcoin they possibly can, and just inflate their own currency to no end to accumulate Bitcoin.

Well, surely game theory suggests that countries will begin to do this at some point.  It is just a matter of when and likely to be on the downlow.

Secretly buying up as many bitcoin as feasible and buying ALL of the bitcoin are two vastly differing scenarios.

This will force other countries to do the same.

Of course.  Game theory suggests this is quite likely to happen.  It's just a matter of when (and likely also a matter of bitcoin not breaking).

Now the first country to do it will be holding a lot of Bitcoin which will be a real threat to any other country who isn't accumulating Bitcoin. This first country could also then sell its Bitcoin to the other countries for their currency and could potentially enrich themselves by holding both Bitcoin and other fiat at a gain.

Agreed.  All likely to happen.

This is why you must hold on for dear life, pat yourself on the back that you are investing in this perceived "risky" asset when the rest of the world is scared to do so.

Oh yeah, for sure.  We are all likely way the fuck early to the game and we have been accumulating at relatively low prices, and that is part of the reason why there is NO real need for any of us to engage in irresponsible behavior by attempting to act too greedy and to put our own lil selfies in financial difficulties because we have over-leveraged into bitcoin. 

In other words, bitcoin seems to remain to be such an asymmetrical bet that none of us have to kill our lil selfies in the way that we invest in order to profit stupendously on a personal level from our having had invested in bitcoin and continue to invest in bitcoin at whatever level is feasible and prudent for ourselves.  In other words, mere normal, prudent and perhaps slightly aggressive (without gambling too much) levels of investment into bitcoin will likely pay off with considerable riches.

We are so lucky, Bitcoin is the endgame for all value, it is the black hole; fiat currencies have no chance against it and fiat will only be bitcoin rocket fuel. The more fiat that gets printed, the higher Bitcoin will continue to go.

No argument or elaboration from me there, except just acknowledging:  Well said.   Wink
I truly believe we will reach a point where ALL governments in the world will be printing off endless amounts of fiat in order to buy as much Bitcoin.......but guess what? at that point we will all know that Fiat is 100% dead (dead as in it will be a never ending hyper inflation, and all of the people of the world will finally realize that Fiat is just something that loses value, while Bitcoin will just gain value as more fiat is printed) and no one will be selling their Bitcoin for Fiat, it would be beyond stupid because the Bitcoin you sell for Fiat, might lost half of its value the next day if the government decided to print (Digitally print) off trillions more, which will push Bitcoin up to millions of dollars (5-50 million dollars). Perhaps A zillion dollar marketcap, and no im not saying this because I am delusional, I just think Bitcoin is the black hole and governments will end up printing off trillions upon trillions to get more Bitcoin, but people are not going to convert back, and of course at this point being a millionaire wont be anything special.

I would say at this point, if you hold at least .2 Bitcoin for the rest of your life, you will be living an easy life. Keep in mind to, when this does go down, governments useless fiat wont be able to pay anyone to go pursue people who have Bitcoin. No police officer, or government worker is going to want to get paid in fiat, they will want Bitcoin, which the government wont have enough of to even hold things together let alone go after Bitcoin HODLers (Arrest, confiscate, etc).

It didn't happen with gold, it won't happen with BTC.   Governments might buy a chunk of BTC, but they won't create out of control fiat inflation to do so.
Thats because Gold can't be used as money (they tried and it ultimately didnt work), Bitcoin can. Gold will never be a threat to Fiat, Bitcoin is a direct treat to Fiat.

I can send Bitcoin to anyone in the world immediately, Gold cannot replicate that, ever. Just my opinion.

While I don't believe that gold has a long term future as a store of value, it really silly to claim that gold can't be used as money.    It has been used for for money for thousands of years and even now it is easy to trade for any currency, it currently has value.   There are forms of gold that are traded a lot faster than BTC can be transferred.   While it is possible to seen bitcoin to anyone if they have the correct tools to access it and are set up for it, the transfer is far from immediate.   Typically faster than a wire transfer but rarely less than an hour to get picked up by the network and get the six confirmations.   Much better than a couple years ago, but not immediate.   

Bitcoin isn't really even a threat to fiat currency.   However in many cases it will probably be a better store of value than fiat.   
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October 30, 2019, 11:26:59 AM

“With this,” he said, “we break the biggest privacy problem in Bitcoin, that is that inputs can be linked to outputs. And when we have that, and we will very soon (hopefully), then I would say we have pretty damn good privacy in Bitcoin.”

Schnorr signatures are a non-solution to fungibility for Bitcoin.  It relies on external mixing Rube Goldberg machines that are not inherent to the protocol.  The government will outlaw all these methods as money laundering just like they already outlaw the same thing for federal reserve notes.  Just like Monero, it's not even real 'fungibility', but more like plausible deniability, but at least Monero has it as a mandatory part of the protocol.

Having optional mixing is almost worse than having no mixing at all, because most tokens will not be mixed and the government, retailers, and everyone else will just assume the tokens that are blatantly obviously mixed without a valid paper trail will be criminal by default...and thus non-fungible.  So it might as well not even exist.  There's no reason to attempt to replicate the already inherent properties of physical metals with half-assed, dysfunctional, digital scams when physical metals already exist.
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October 30, 2019, 11:47:03 AM
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...
I truly believe we will reach a point where ALL governments in the world will be printing off endless amounts of fiat in order to buy as much Bitcoin.......but guess what? at that point we will all know that Fiat is 100% dead (dead as in it will be a never ending hyper inflation, and all of the people of the world will finally realize that Fiat is just something that loses value, while Bitcoin will just gain value as more fiat is printed) and no one will be selling their Bitcoin for Fiat, it would be beyond stupid because the Bitcoin you sell for Fiat, might lost half of its value the next day if the government decided to print (Digitally print) off trillions more, which will push Bitcoin up to millions of dollars (5-50 million dollars). Perhaps A zillion dollar marketcap, and no im not saying this because I am delusional, I just think Bitcoin is the black hole and governments will end up printing off trillions upon trillions to get more Bitcoin, but people are not going to convert back, and of course at this point being a millionaire wont be anything special.

I would say at this point, if you hold at least .2 Bitcoin for the rest of your life, you will be living an easy life. Keep in mind to, when this does go down, governments useless fiat wont be able to pay anyone to go pursue people who have Bitcoin. No police officer, or government worker is going to want to get paid in fiat, they will want Bitcoin, which the government wont have enough of to even hold things together let alone go after Bitcoin HODLers (Arrest, confiscate, etc).

Interesting thought experiment.  Sounds great for those of us with a sizable btc stash.

The bit about government not having enough to hold things together sounds a bit like anarchy, and I believe a prosperous society will always have a government.   I don't believe it will go that way, I think government actors will be quietly hoarding the bitcoin, precious metals, real estate, rare art, etc, as the direction of things become clearer.  Maybe things will be "rebooted" in a more positive direction?
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October 30, 2019, 12:04:30 PM

the Japanese scenario where all this QE began is amazing it continues

Once you combine nation state currencies + globalization, the worst currency of all (defined by having the lowest interest rate) ILLOGICALLY becomes one of the highest demand due to the carry trade.  You borrow in the zero interest currency and use the borrowed money to buy the highest yielding currency.  So the single best and the single worst currency then have all the volume, while all others are ignored.

Due to the retarded Japanese economy and the ability to borrow their money at zero interest - hence free helicopter money - that Japanese helicopter money then goes in to fueling asset bubbles everywhere else.  It's complex and hard to predict to what countries  and what assets all this money flows to, but this is what's meant by the phrase "all QE is fungible".  All other nations are then required to lower interest rates to zero as well if they want to avoid these carry trade distortions.

The second the carry trade unwinds from having no high interest nation to arb borrowed Japanese Yen to, is when the Yen should completely implode from demand drying up for that arb vehicle.  Conversely, setting all nations to zero interest rates would probably ignite a global carry trade of all currencies into physical metals instead of only the Yen being the carry trade vehicle.  Everyone on the planet would just borrow zero interest paper in any currency and invest it in metals, possibly giving you the biggest metals bubble of all time in the future.  

Gold, for instance, was not gaining ground on the Yen for SEVEN YEARS straight, and just recently broke to the upside against the Yen indicating an unwind of the carry trade as all other nations go into ZIRP.  TLDR:  Physical metals wil be the winner in the unwind of the carry trade and definitely not imaginary, valueless, digital scams like Bitcoin because it's WAY too fucking risky to borrow money and buy Bitcoin with it which can implode at any second.
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October 30, 2019, 12:15:58 PM

Great analysis once again by fil₿fil₿!

Quote
The 50/100 Week moving average is due to cross going into December. I could see us ranging into the existing channel until we get to the end of the year when this narrative picks up and we start moving towards the upside once again. There will be 6 months to go before the halving and the narrative will no doubt gain momentum as we go towards it.
As you can see, this cross has happened before the previous halving and was accompanied by a huge kick to the upside. I continue to maintain that we will see a move towards all-time highs faster than we saw in previous halving, due to better information out in the market place such as the Stock to flow model and because we already know that Litecoin moved earlier than in previous cycles when it had its halving.



https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/TRHIyhs1-Bitcoin-12-Month-Forecast-Updated/
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October 30, 2019, 12:30:12 PM

because we already know that Litecoin moved earlier than in previous cycles when it had its halving.

You are aware that Litecoin went from $140 to $50 for it's 'halving', right? LOL.  It's inevitable this happens to a Bitcoin halving as well from everyone all going in on the same side of the trade beforehand.  There's no such thing as a "HODLer"; HODLers are nothing more than dumpers.  They aren't looking to 'hodl' or buy more, they're looking to dump at the first glance of a price spike.  Now that we've established everyone in this thread is a dumper and not a price supporter, same with all those people on Twitter, the real question is:  who is the greater fool looking to buy from this enormous mob of people?
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October 30, 2019, 12:38:56 PM

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October 30, 2019, 12:41:01 PM
Merited by ssmc2 (1), barota (1), Alexander_Z (1)

It's interesting, I hadn't seen it like that ..

Quote
#BTC #BITCOIN
This will blow your mind! 🤯

I Tried to visualise it

You see those gains? every cycle the gains get divided by 3 BUT the time-span get multiplied by 3!!

If we break ATH expect 2000% / 3 = 666% 😈

New ATH = 130K

Amazing huh?!

Please RT share this shit!!!!!!



Referring to:

Quote
$BTC needed:
👉625 days to break 2011 ATH
👉1245 days to break 2013 ATH
👉It's been only 680 days since ATH of 2017

Think about it for a sec...
Remember Fibonacci?

625 + 625 = 1250!
1250 + 1250 = 2500 - 680 = 1820 day left.

🎯  October 2024

@BTC_JackSparrow think level. 🧠



Source: https://twitter.com/888Velvet/status/1189029370381426690
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October 30, 2019, 12:44:16 PM

because we already know that Litecoin moved earlier than in previous cycles when it had its halving.

Stock to flow is irrelevant for LTC.
Whatever made LTC moving north around the halving time, it wasn't the SF, or halving itself.


Quote
Per request and despite the fact that I think that alts theoretically don't have 'unforgeable costliness' .. I decided to make a #Litecoin #LTC stock-to-flow model (data from Sep 2013). R2 is low .. 25%. Current S2F value is $27 (after 2019 halving $65). Can somebody pls verify?!

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1137352369321234432?s=20

Two posts, two PlanB tweet. I like that!
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October 30, 2019, 12:51:08 PM

It's interesting, I hadn't seen it like that ..

Quote
#BTC #BITCOIN
This will blow your mind! 🤯

I Tried to visualise it

You see those gains? every cycle the gains get divided by 3 BUT the time-span get multiplied by 3!!

If we break ATH expect 2000% / 3 = 666% 😈

New ATH = 130K

Amazing huh?!

Please RT share this shit!!!!!!



Referring to:

Quote
$BTC needed:
👉625 days to break 2011 ATH
👉1245 days to break 2013 ATH
👉It's been only 680 days since ATH of 2017

Think about it for a sec...
Remember Fibonacci?

625 + 625 = 1250!
1250 + 1250 = 2500 - 680 = 1820 day left.

🎯  October 2024

@BTC_JackSparrow think level. 🧠



Source: https://twitter.com/888Velvet/status/1189029370381426690

Cycles are not getting longer. We just had a 40% gain in 1 day, last 2 times that occurred was when bitcoin was $5 and the other time was when it was $.040.
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October 30, 2019, 12:51:24 PM

Stock to flow is irrelevant for LTC.

You people are the most dishonest, retarded, fucking scammers I've ever seen in my entire life.  It's not possible for this 'stock to flow' nonsense to be completely invalid for Litecoin and every other coin and work ONLY for Bitcoin. They're all the same 'asset' class - I use the term "asset" extremely loosely because imaginary timestamps are not an asset - so it either has to work for all of them or none of them.  It obviously works for none of them because a stock to flow model only works on physical commodity resources humans actually need with some type of inelastic demand.
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October 30, 2019, 12:58:10 PM

Cycles are not getting longer. We just had a 40% gain in 1 day, last 2 times that occurred was when bitcoin was $5 and the other time was when it was $.040.
Humans are flawed imbeciles. If you look for a specific pattern long enough, you will find it given your bias. It is the exact opposite of what you should be doing, i.e. trying to explain the data objectively and not look for your most-beloved pattern. Most of the TA and 'history repeats itself' or 'history doesn't repeat itself' is nonsense both ways.
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October 30, 2019, 01:02:14 PM

It's interesting, I hadn't seen it like that ..

Quote
#BTC #BITCOIN
This will blow your mind! 🤯

I Tried to visualise it

You see those gains? every cycle the gains get divided by 3 BUT the time-span get multiplied by 3!!

If we break ATH expect 2000% / 3 = 666% 😈

New ATH = 130K

Amazing huh?!

Please RT share this shit!!!!!!



Referring to:

Quote
$BTC needed:
👉625 days to break 2011 ATH
👉1245 days to break 2013 ATH
👉It's been only 680 days since ATH of 2017

Think about it for a sec...
Remember Fibonacci?

625 + 625 = 1250!
1250 + 1250 = 2500 - 680 = 1820 day left.

🎯  October 2024

@BTC_JackSparrow think level. 🧠



Source: https://twitter.com/888Velvet/status/1189029370381426690

Sadly, this may be correct: the price will fluctuate in the region from upper 4 digits to lower 5 digits for years.
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