Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[realr0ach]

“With this,” he said, “we break the biggest privacy problem in Bitcoin, that is that inputs can be linked to outputs. And when we have that, and we will very soon (hopefully), then I would say we have pretty damn good privacy in Bitcoin.”

Schnorr signatures are a non-solution to fungibility for Bitcoin.  It relies on external mixing Rube Goldberg machines that are not inherent to the protocol.  The government will outlaw all these methods as money laundering just like they already outlaw the same thing for federal reserve notes.  Just like Monero, it's not even real 'fungibility', but more like plausible deniability, but at least Monero has it as a mandatory part of the protocol.

Having optional mixing is almost worse than having no mixing at all, because most tokens will not be mixed and the government, retailers, and everyone else will just assume the tokens that are blatantly obviously mixed without a valid paper trail will be criminal by default...and thus non-fungible.  So it might as well not even exist.  There's no reason to attempt to replicate the already inherent properties of physical metals with half-assed, dysfunctional, digital scams when physical metals already exist.

[btcbeliever]

...
I truly believe we will reach a point where ALL governments in the world will be printing off endless amounts of fiat in order to buy as much Bitcoin.......but guess what? at that point we will all know that Fiat is 100% dead (dead as in it will be a never ending hyper inflation, and all of the people of the world will finally realize that Fiat is just something that loses value, while Bitcoin will just gain value as more fiat is printed) and no one will be selling their Bitcoin for Fiat, it would be beyond stupid because the Bitcoin you sell for Fiat, might lost half of its value the next day if the government decided to print (Digitally print) off trillions more, which will push Bitcoin up to millions of dollars (5-50 million dollars). Perhaps A zillion dollar marketcap, and no im not saying this because I am delusional, I just think Bitcoin is the black hole and governments will end up printing off trillions upon trillions to get more Bitcoin, but people are not going to convert back, and of course at this point being a millionaire wont be anything special.

I would say at this point, if you hold at least .2 Bitcoin for the rest of your life, you will be living an easy life. Keep in mind to, when this does go down, governments useless fiat wont be able to pay anyone to go pursue people who have Bitcoin. No police officer, or government worker is going to want to get paid in fiat, they will want Bitcoin, which the government wont have enough of to even hold things together let alone go after Bitcoin HODLers (Arrest, confiscate, etc).

Interesting thought experiment.  Sounds great for those of us with a sizable btc stash.

The bit about government not having enough to hold things together sounds a bit like anarchy, and I believe a prosperous society will always have a government.   I don't believe it will go that way, I think government actors will be quietly hoarding the bitcoin, precious metals, real estate, rare art, etc, as the direction of things become clearer.  Maybe things will be "rebooted" in a more positive direction?

[realr0ach]

the Japanese scenario where all this QE began is amazing it continues

Once you combine nation state currencies + globalization, the worst currency of all (defined by having the lowest interest rate) ILLOGICALLY becomes one of the highest demand due to the carry trade.  You borrow in the zero interest currency and use the borrowed money to buy the highest yielding currency.  So the single best and the single worst currency then have all the volume, while all others are ignored.

Due to the retarded Japanese economy and the ability to borrow their money at zero interest - hence free helicopter money - that Japanese helicopter money then goes in to fueling asset bubbles everywhere else.  It's complex and hard to predict to what countries  and what assets all this money flows to, but this is what's meant by the phrase "all QE is fungible".  All other nations are then required to lower interest rates to zero as well if they want to avoid these carry trade distortions.

The second the carry trade unwinds from having no high interest nation to arb borrowed Japanese Yen to, is when the Yen should completely implode from demand drying up for that arb vehicle.  Conversely, setting all nations to zero interest rates would probably ignite a global carry trade of all currencies into physical metals instead of only the Yen being the carry trade vehicle.  Everyone on the planet would just borrow zero interest paper in any currency and invest it in metals, possibly giving you the biggest metals bubble of all time in the future.  

Gold, for instance, was not gaining ground on the Yen for SEVEN YEARS straight, and just recently broke to the upside against the Yen indicating an unwind of the carry trade as all other nations go into ZIRP.  TLDR:  Physical metals wil be the winner in the unwind of the carry trade and definitely not imaginary, valueless, digital scams like Bitcoin because it's WAY too fucking risky to borrow money and buy Bitcoin with it which can implode at any second.

[Bitcoinaire]

Great analysis once again by fil₿fil₿!

The 50/100 Week moving average is due to cross going into December. I could see us ranging into the existing channel until we get to the end of the year when this narrative picks up and we start moving towards the upside once again. There will be 6 months to go before the halving and the narrative will no doubt gain momentum as we go towards it.
As you can see, this cross has happened before the previous halving and was accompanied by a huge kick to the upside. I continue to maintain that we will see a move towards all-time highs faster than we saw in previous halving, due to better information out in the market place such as the Stock to flow model and because we already know that Litecoin moved earlier than in previous cycles when it had its halving.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/TRHIyhs1-Bitcoin-12-Month-Forecast-Updated/

[realr0ach]

because we already know that Litecoin moved earlier than in previous cycles when it had its halving.

You are aware that Litecoin went from $140 to $50 for it's 'halving', right? LOL.  It's inevitable this happens to a Bitcoin halving as well from everyone all going in on the same side of the trade beforehand.  There's no such thing as a "HODLer"; HODLers are nothing more than dumpers.  They aren't looking to 'hodl' or buy more, they're looking to dump at the first glance of a price spike.  Now that we've established everyone in this thread is a dumper and not a price supporter, same with all those people on Twitter, the real question is:  who is the greater fool looking to buy from this enormous mob of people?

[ivomm]

[LUCKMCFLY]

It's interesting, I hadn't seen it like that ..

#BTC #BITCOIN
This will blow your mind! 🤯

I Tried to visualise it

You see those gains? every cycle the gains get divided by 3 BUT the time-span get multiplied by 3!!

If we break ATH expect 2000% / 3 = 666% 😈

New ATH = 130K

Amazing huh?!

Please RT share this shit!!!!!!

Referring to:

$BTC needed:
👉625 days to break 2011 ATH
👉1245 days to break 2013 ATH
👉It's been only 680 days since ATH of 2017

Think about it for a sec...
Remember Fibonacci?

625 + 625 = 1250!
1250 + 1250 = 2500 - 680 = 1820 day left.

🎯  October 2024

@BTC_JackSparrow think level. 🧠

Source: https://twitter.com/888Velvet/status/1189029370381426690

[fillippone]

because we already know that Litecoin moved earlier than in previous cycles when it had its halving.

Stock to flow is irrelevant for LTC.
Whatever made LTC moving north around the halving time, it wasn't the SF, or halving itself.

Per request and despite the fact that I think that alts theoretically don't have 'unforgeable costliness' .. I decided to make a #Litecoin #LTC stock-to-flow model (data from Sep 2013). R2 is low .. 25%. Current S2F value is $27 (after 2019 halving $65). Can somebody pls verify?!

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1137352369321234432?s=20

Two posts, two PlanB tweet. I like that!

[Bitcoinaire]

It's interesting, I hadn't seen it like that ..

#BTC #BITCOIN
This will blow your mind! 🤯

I Tried to visualise it

You see those gains? every cycle the gains get divided by 3 BUT the time-span get multiplied by 3!!

If we break ATH expect 2000% / 3 = 666% 😈

New ATH = 130K

Amazing huh?!

Please RT share this shit!!!!!!

Referring to:

$BTC needed:
👉625 days to break 2011 ATH
👉1245 days to break 2013 ATH
👉It's been only 680 days since ATH of 2017

Think about it for a sec...
Remember Fibonacci?

625 + 625 = 1250!
1250 + 1250 = 2500 - 680 = 1820 day left.

🎯  October 2024

@BTC_JackSparrow think level. 🧠

Source: https://twitter.com/888Velvet/status/1189029370381426690

Cycles are not getting longer. We just had a 40% gain in 1 day, last 2 times that occurred was when bitcoin was $5 and the other time was when it was $.040.

[realr0ach]

Stock to flow is irrelevant for LTC.

You people are the most dishonest, retarded, fucking scammers I've ever seen in my entire life.  It's not possible for this 'stock to flow' nonsense to be completely invalid for Litecoin and every other coin and work ONLY for Bitcoin. They're all the same 'asset' class - I use the term "asset" extremely loosely because imaginary timestamps are not an asset - so it either has to work for all of them or none of them.  It obviously works for none of them because a stock to flow model only works on physical commodity resources humans actually need with some type of inelastic demand.

[Lauda]

Cycles are not getting longer. We just had a 40% gain in 1 day, last 2 times that occurred was when bitcoin was $5 and the other time was when it was $.040.

Humans are flawed imbeciles. If you look for a specific pattern long enough, you will find it given your bias. It is the exact opposite of what you should be doing, i.e. trying to explain the data objectively and not look for your most-beloved pattern. Most of the TA and 'history repeats itself' or 'history doesn't repeat itself' is nonsense both ways.

[Alexander_Z]

It's interesting, I hadn't seen it like that ..

#BTC #BITCOIN
This will blow your mind! 🤯

I Tried to visualise it

You see those gains? every cycle the gains get divided by 3 BUT the time-span get multiplied by 3!!

If we break ATH expect 2000% / 3 = 666% 😈

New ATH = 130K

Amazing huh?!

Please RT share this shit!!!!!!

Referring to:

$BTC needed:
👉625 days to break 2011 ATH
👉1245 days to break 2013 ATH
👉It's been only 680 days since ATH of 2017

Think about it for a sec...
Remember Fibonacci?

625 + 625 = 1250!
1250 + 1250 = 2500 - 680 = 1820 day left.

🎯  October 2024

@BTC_JackSparrow think level. 🧠

Source: https://twitter.com/888Velvet/status/1189029370381426690

Sadly, this may be correct: the price will fluctuate in the region from upper 4 digits to lower 5 digits for years.

[Lauda]

Sadly, this may be correct: the price will fluctuate in the region from upper 4 digits to lower 5 digits for years.

Complete shitpost.

Cycles are not getting longer. We just had a 40% gain in 1 day, last 2 times that occurred was when bitcoin was $5 and the other time was when it was $.040.

Humans are flawed imbeciles. If you look for a specific pattern long enough, you will find it given your bias. It is the exact opposite of what you should be doing, i.e. trying to explain the data objectively and not look for your most-beloved pattern. Most of the TA and 'history repeats itself' or 'history doesn't repeat itself' is nonsense both ways.

Addition: https://threesixty360.wordpress.com/2008/10/26/one-two-three-four-six-again-and-then-again/

[realr0ach]

Lauda, while you're here, since you provide the invaluable resource of angry, cat lady demographic, could you give us your viewpoint on the following subject?  A civilization is incapable of functioning with divorce rates at what they are, and women initiate 70% of them, while - here's the kicker - COLLEGE educated women initiate 90% of divorces.  Isn't this proof that educating women is completely pointless and causes nothing but instability? 

One might attempt to correlate this number with the hypergamous nature of women, and that giving them a way to accumulate wealth and power leaves them with no viable way to practice hypergamy since they have no viable hypergamous mate to marry up to, thus giving women no reason to exist.

[fillippone]

Stock to flow is irrelevant for LTC.

You people are the most dishonest, retarded, fucking scammers I've ever seen in my entire life.  

<...>

Forced to reply as you are calling me in a way I don't like.

If only you would use some of your time to actually read about the model (plenty of places to do that, one of those being here), instead of repeating the same old story, you would understand why this model is not applicable to Litecoin.

[goldkingcoiner]

Lauda, while you're here, since you provide the invaluable resource of angry, cat lady demographic, could you give us your viewpoint on the following subject?  A civilization is incapable of functioning with divorce rates at what they are, and women initiate 70% of them, while - here's the kicker - COLLEGE educated women initiate 90% of divorces.  Isn't this proof that educating women is completely pointless and causes nothing but instability?  

One might attempt to correlate this number with the hypergamous nature of women, and that giving them a way to accumulate wealth and power leaves them with no viable way to practice hypergamy since they have no viable hypergamous mate to marry up to, thus giving women no reason to exist.

Do you know about the mouse utopia experiment of John B. Calhoun? What happens to mice in a closed space with all the food they could want? As population grows, birthrate starts falling to almost 0. Same thing can be applied to humans, with Earth as our closed off space.

Evolutionary traits are kicking in to stop overpopulation. All natural. Might drive us to extinction, might not.

[realr0ach]

Stock to flow is irrelevant for LTC.

You people are the most dishonest, retarded, fucking scammers I've ever seen in my entire life.  It's not possible for this 'stock to flow' nonsense to be completely invalid for Litecoin and every other coin and work ONLY for Bitcoin. They're all the same 'asset' class - I use the term "asset" extremely loosely because imaginary timestamps are not an asset - so it either has to work for all of them or none of them.  It obviously works for none of them because a stock to flow model only works on physical commodity resources humans actually need with some type of inelastic demand.

Forced to reply as you are calling me in a way I don't like.

If only you would use some of your time to actually read about the model (plenty of places to do that, one of those being here), instead of repeating the same old story, you would understand why this model is not applicable to Litecoin.

No, you're parroting a talking point that you did not create yourself and have no idea how this talking point is even supposed to work because you think pushing this propaganda will be beneficial to your bottom line when there's no rationale whatsoever behind it.  You, Micgoossens, and several other cavemen in the thread do this, constantly parroting bogus shit from Twitter pump and dump scammers.

What is your rationale for why 'stock to flow' would work on Bitcoin when it doesn't work on ANY other digital crapcoin?  You don't have one.  You're either required to be a dishonest scammer or negro-level IQ to not be able to realize scarcity in vacuum for scarcity's sake is meaningless.  The idea of stock to flow requires pairing scarcity with inelastic demand.  To have inelastic demand requires being an actual physical resource humans need, not an IMAGINARY timestamp.  TIMESTAMPS are not in short supply ANYWHERE.

Stock to flow doesn't work on things like Garbage Pail Kid trading cards or digital shitcoins because as the price rises, there is no inelastic demand forcing the item to still be bought; demand has an inverse correlation to price in the case of these instruments.  Digital shitcoins are not the unit of account of anything, nor are they resources.

[Lauda]

-snip-

The conclusion from that is: The existence of men is pointless and will soon not be necessary. Our future AI overlords will realize this, and shall start exterminating males as soon as the tables turn. Don't try creating arguments mr. r0ach when your IQ is even challenged by early monkey specimen.

[realr0ach]

Lauda, while you're here, since you provide the invaluable resource of angry, cat lady demographic, could you give us your viewpoint on the following subject?  A civilization is incapable of functioning with divorce rates at what they are, and women initiate 70% of them, while - here's the kicker - COLLEGE educated women initiate 90% of divorces.  Isn't this proof that educating women is completely pointless and causes nothing but instability?

One might attempt to correlate this number with the hypergamous nature of women, and that giving them a way to accumulate wealth and power leaves them with no viable way to practice hypergamy since they have no viable hypergamous mate to marry up to, thus giving women no reason to exist.

The conclusion from that is: The existence of men is pointless and will soon not be necessary. Our future AI overlords will realize this, and shall start exterminating males as soon as the tables turn. Don't try creating arguments mr. r0ach when your IQ is even challenged by early monkey specimen.

Your statement overlooks the inconvenient fact that traditionally the main reason women seek out men and marriage in general is entirely an insurance policy/safety net.  The man was replaced by big government as that safety net, hence women's now instant flight to divorce at the first sign of minor inconvenience or non-asymmetrical benefit in their favor.  

For this paradigm to remain true, big government (which women always selfishly vote for in their own interest) would need to not only continue in current form, but get even larger due to women as a whole being a net negative contributor to a nation over the course of their lives.  In other words, if the man is not footing the bill, the woman's net negative economic contribution to the nation would attempt to be extracted from an ever-expanding state.  But this ignores the fact no matter what taxes are set to, the state only ever manages to pull out 20% from it's serfs.  So you're already at 'peak-state' and 'peak-women'.

[_javi_]

It has been accepted that 2017 bullrun was cancelled by CME and co, with their shorting tools.

Then, all the parabolas using that 2017 peak should be invalidated.
It could have been way higher..
And "they" could cancel next bullrun.. or not.

Funny interpolations.. trying to predict such an emotional market.


To be honest, nobody knows what the honey badger is doing next, neither when nor how high it could climb ...