Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[HairyMaclairy]

Bit annoyed with BFX. I had a limit order at 529 that went unfilled on the spike down to 514 on Bitstamp.

The BFX service discussion thread says that this is because market orders on BSP are not made available to the BFX order book. Only market orders on BFX are made available to BSP.  

I'm not convinced this is the reason (although I have to admit it has been a long time since I have seen one of my limit orders execute on BSP). It might be another step to "protect the lenders" on BFX along with dropping max leverage to 1:2.5

[MoreFun]

Bit annoyed with BFX. I had a limit order at 529 that went unfilled on the spike down to 514 on Bitstamp.

The BFX service discussion thread says that this is because market orders on BSP are not made available to the BFX order book. Only market orders on BFX are made available to BSP.  

I'm not convinced this is the reason (although I have to admit it has been a long time since I have seen one of my limit orders execute on BSP). It might be another step to "protect the lenders" on BFX along with dropping max leverage to 1:2.5

I am not sure if they still use bitstamp, they have quite a lot of volume and large orderbook themself. Can't find the routing option also for trading and no bitstamp section on fees page anymore.

[kromer]

WTF is up with Bearstamp. Don't they realize that these prices are already dirt cheap? Stop selling you fools!

[aminorex]

I am not sure if they still use bitstamp, they have quite a lot of volume and large orderbook themself. Can't find the routing option also for trading and no bitstamp section on fees page anymore.

They use bitstamp when they have liquidity at bitstamp, not otherwise.  The routing was made transparent a few weeks ago.

[adamstgBit]

WTF is up with Bearstamp. Don't they realize that these prices are already dirt cheap? Stop selling you fools!

most poeple sell at the bottom.

[HairyMaclairy]

The routing option has been gone for awhile. But I think they are going to lose some of their order book to BSP if they are less volatile than BSP...

[Richy_T]

What you don't get is that the bitcoin code is not special as an invention, but it is special as an innovation. Meaning that it can be copied and improved easily. Meaning it's just a matter of time when it will get replaced.
Only reason why it hasn't been replaced yet is that there are no serious teams with experience and financial backing. Most altcoins are made by students and hobbyists, just for the fun of it. So, it's not hard to understand why there isn't any serious competition yet.
But the time will come, because this idea is an important step in the evolution of finance. To create an transparent open sourced monetary system that is supported by the internet. Bitcoin is too simplistic and childish to fill the shoes of that idea. If bitcoin would have faster development, then I would believe that bitcoin could evolve enough to fit the spot. But to me, it's more probable, that a more capable team will pick up this idea and make something that is better and developing faster.

One obstacle that there is to that is that Bitcoin has effectively "burned that bridge". Its low initial adoption has allowed it to grow in an organic manner that will be less available to successors. It could still happen but whatever it is won't just have to be better than Bitcoin, it'll have to be significantly better and Satoshi set the bar pretty high.

[HairyMaclairy]

WTF is up with Bearstamp. Don't they realize that these prices are already dirt cheap? Stop selling you fools!

most poeple sell at the bottom.

Given that all crashes occur on high volume that statement is true by definition (volumetrically speaking).

[JorgeStolfi]

Checking the Chinese Slumber Method predictions for Feb/24
or
Have some good laughs watching Jorge chase the Chinese Chicken

Prediction posted on: Sunday 2014-02-2223, 22:24 UTC
Prediction valid for: Monday 2014-02-24, 19:00--19:59 UTC

The prediction for today (Monday Feb/24) again failed.  The actual price fell halfway between the "bullish" trend line defined by the Slumber Points of Feb/18, Feb/19 and Feb/23; and the "bearish" trendline, parallel to it, defined by the Feb/22 Slumber Point.

Huobi's predicted price: 3809 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3615 CNY
Error: 194 CNY

Bitstamp's predicted price: 622 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 545 USD
Error: 77 USD

The Huobi prediction in question is the rightmost blue rectangle on the chart below.  The light blue-gray rectangles are the previous predictions.  The orange and grey dots are the True and False Slumber Points, the mean prices at 19:00 UTC every day.  The orange line is the trend that was assumed for the prediction.


The following chart shows the Bitstamp prices and predictions. The orange and grey dots are Huobi's prices at 19:00 UTC every day, divided by R = 6.12.  The orange line is the trend used in the prediction, which is Huobi's trend divided by R.  Note that this computation was quite off the actual Bitstamp price for Feb/24, due to a 10 kBTC sale that was in progress at the time.


EDIT: Snday was Feb/23 not Feb/22

[kromer]

WTF is up with Bearstamp. Don't they realize that these prices are already dirt cheap? Stop selling you fools!

most poeple sell at the bottom.

I underestimated how stupid people are. I am kicking myself for not profiting from this. I am all BTC and I think it's too late now.

[HairyMaclairy]

I am not sure if they still use bitstamp, they have quite a lot of volume and large orderbook themself. Can't find the routing option also for trading and no bitstamp section on fees page anymore.

They use bitstamp when they have liquidity at bitstamp, not otherwise.  The routing was made transparent a few weeks ago.

Can you please expand on the statement "when they have liquidity at Bitstamp". Thanks

[JorgeStolfi]

Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Tuesday Feb/25

Today Feb/24, Huobi's volume for 19:00 -- 19:59 UTC was only 197 BTC, which, by the criteria I have been using, makes it a True Slumber Point.  However, trading was officially interrupted for maintenance at 18:00 UTC (2:00 am China time) and was expected to resume at 23:00 UTC (07:00 China time), but there were a few small transactions in that interval.  So it may be more prudent to consider it a False Slumber Point.

This was the fifth consecutive day in a period of hectic trading at Huobi, that started on Feb/20. It is as if the Slumber Points of Feb/20, Feb/21, Feb/22 and today Feb/24 were all False.  That is, it is as if the five days Feb/20--24 had been one single "trading session" during which the price veered off the trend line, like Feb/11--12, Feb/13--14, and Feb/16--17.

There is no clear trend yet, so for the next prediction I will rather arbitrarily use the "bullish" trendline defined by the True Slumber Points of Feb/18, Feb/19 and Feb/23, ignoring Feb/21.  That trend line has the equation p = 3871.10 - 2.57*d, where p is the price and d is the day number in February.   For Bitstamp, as usual, I will use Huobi's prediction divided by R = 6.12.

Therefore:

Prediction valid for: Tuesday 2014-02-25, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 3807 CNY.
Bitstamp's predicted price: 622 USD.



NOTE: This is not trade advice.  If you are looking for that, I advise you to trust Piet Hein:

    Shun advice
    at any price -
    that's what I call
    good advice.

[JorgeStolfi]

Warning: if you find the Chinese Slumber Stuff annoying, be sure to skip my last two posts. 

[bassclef]

WTF is up with Bearstamp. Don't they realize that these prices are already dirt cheap? Stop selling you fools!

most poeple sell at the bottom.

I underestimated how stupid people are. I am kicking myself for not profiting from this. I am all BTC and I think it's too late now.

You can always grab a few goxcoins if you're feeling extra frisky.

[deadfi$h]

I am not sure if they still use bitstamp, they have quite a lot of volume and large orderbook themself. Can't find the routing option also for trading and no bitstamp section on fees page anymore.

They use bitstamp when they have liquidity at bitstamp, not otherwise.  The routing was made transparent a few weeks ago.

Can you please expand on the statement "when they have liquidity at Bitstamp". Thanks

Yeah, this is interesting. I don't think any orders have been going through Stamp for the last few days at least. They've been diverging by about $10 for all of this most recent downtrend.

[HairyMaclairy]

Do you think the API has been cut again?

That could cause yet another trading halt on BFX during big moves.  Screw this I'm moving some liquidity to BSP even if I have to take a 2% haircut.  I'm not going to be sidelined during the next storm like last time.

[empowering]

Kinda off topic and old news but I'll just leave this here:

First step in raiding Europe's private savings

Yeah posted the rotters link here a few day back... quite a read... and bullish for crypto imo

Sounds like a quote taken out of context.  It is pretty normal for infrastructure to be funded by pension funds who then obtain a long run return in excess of government bonds.  You buy a tunnel that has 100,000 cars go through it per day @ $2 each = $200k per day.  As long as the pension fund does not pay too much (which is always the trick) then they are golden.

The original -  http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/12/us-eu-banks-savings-idUSBREA1B1ZI20140212

[MatTheCat]

And here comes the breakdown from pennant....

...look out below!

[deadfi$h]

Do you think the API has been cut again?

My bet is that Bitfinex wants to break off and be an exchange in its own right. I'm sure that was always the plan.

According to bitcoinwisdom charts, BFX has more than half as much volume as BTSP.

BFX yesterday ~16,000
BSTP yesterday ~ 21,000

[KeyserSoze]

Warning: if you find the Chinese Slumber Stuff annoying, be sure to skip my last two posts. 

Your warning is better late than never.