Sadly my last year's prediction didn't come true (well it did partially). To remind you I predicted 10k by summer 2019 15k by fall and new ATH by the end of the year. BTC had a good pace and almost reached 15k (was it ~$14k?) earlier than predicted. Then is slowed down (fucking bears) and we didn't witness any ATH...
hahahaha
There has got to be a lesson in there, somewhere. Maybe the lesson would be that predicting a straight trajectory is bound to fail, and I am not even sure if I would be able to grant you much credit for predicting the $13,880. That was a fluke, but it also happened and it showed us a kind of power behind the pump.... It might have been a sign of something. What that something was is NOT easy to determine? I am kind of thinking that it is a sign of bullishness and likely front-running of the previous halvening effects, but surely there are a lot of other folks who just consider it as pure manipulation.. .likely no coiners, bitcoin naysayers, altcoin season wisheners, and those types.
I would not want to be considered an overly optimisitic bull, but I still believe that there was power in that 3.5x early-to-mid year pumpening.
I'm a bit disappointed but this is just a temporary delay I believe...
Interesting choice of words to be "disappointed." From $3k-$4k zones, we fucking surely could have gone down further rather than UP, or even gotten stagnated in a kind of $3k to $5k zone for a year or more. Any and all of those renditions would have been completely reasonable, and surely moar disappointing than our current location, so I have many difficulties being disappointed with where we are at, currently.. or even how the year played out.
There are so many damned people who are describing 2019 as a lackluster year, and I just don't fucking get it. We had a outrageously amazing 2016 and 2017... and surely 2017 was better than 2016 because the gradual transitioned into a jumpening in of the FOMO... but BTC is going to do what it is going to do, and surely we cannot be disappointed with 2017, even though a considerable amount of the 2017 profits were taken back when we went down to nearly $3k. Shit... cannot even be disappointed with 2018, even though there was a lot of ongoing hopenings that the correction would stop at some point and the UP would continue... but it did not.
So, yeah, compared with 2015, our sufferings in the $3k zone was only 4 months, and shit, in 2015, didn't we have more than 8 months that were largely in the $200s, and even our late 2015 recovery only brought us to bouncing in the $400s for another 6 months... and gosh we still had troubles getting out of the $500s in mid to late 2016.
In sum, I am truly having troubles being disappointed with my good ole buddy, honey
BTC king daddy.
we're bound to see new ATH ($20k+) not later than Summer 2020.
I am not going to complain if we do, but you seem to be setting yourself up for more likely disappointment. Hey, even that fucktwat Bossian, has a kind of reasonable prediction that BTC won't reach new ATHs until 2022 - but I don't buy his theory, either, even though it surely could happen. I am thinking that we are likely to reach ATHs again before the end of 2021, and sure, it could even happen in 2020 with a kind of front running of the previous models, referring to the four year fractal and the stock to flow and some of the other familiar BTC price anticipationings models.
There is some chance to see new ATH earlier (in April-May) because of the halving as I'm sure it's not priced in.
Of course, the halvening is not priced in... fuck that theory.
But, you can still have the halvening NOT priced in, and still have a delay in reaching ATHs for 8 more years. So the priced in discussion does not lead us very far down the road of trying to anticipate how quickly BTC's price is going to reach previous ATHs (talking about $19,666) or even making new ATHs.. Of course, it is NOT very likely at all that bitcoin is going to stick around the ATH territory... but it is possible that we can either have a double top there or just a quick pass through there. I would not be surprised with either scenario, even though I prefer a quick passing through scenario rather than a double top scenario. But, hey we should be pee paring our lil selfies for a variety of scenarios, including ones that we have NOT really thought about.
Don't you believe that there are considerable status quo institutional incentives for the various powers that be to spend a lot of value to attempt to prove the various currently in vogue BTC price prediction as either invalid or even to cause them to become invalid? Sure, they might NOT be successful, but they might be willing to die (or appear to die) trying, while they secretly hedge their bets in accumulating
BTC.
After that parabolic growth will start in August-September and we'll moon in December. Mark my words.
I am going to mark your words with a BIG ASS grain of salt.
Again... sounds like you are setting yourself up for more "disappointment." Sure, you might end up being correct, but what are the odds of your scenario playing out? 50% at best? Perhaps a bit more? Surely, whatever the percentage of your scenario playing out is anywhere close to making any meaningful bets upon it. Hopefully you (and/or anyone else, except for the degenerate gambler(s)) are not leveraging in this regard... because your "get rich quick" might end up causing a "get poor more quickly" situation. Then we would say: "sucks to be you." "He should have known better regarding the sometimes brutality of baby
BTC." and other such similar not too empathetic Monday morning quarter-backing renditions.
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