Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[kkaspar]

I am certain that it will go back down again after this rally, but even so you are missing out on 30% profit by continuing to wait till it goes back down to the $200-$300 range? It might go back down to that price range, but I assure you it will not stay at that price point for longer than a day.  

I don't like to play these unstable rises that are made up of stupidity and hype. To me, it's the same as passing the roulette table and cursing at yourself "If I should have called red at the right moment, then I could have won big". Sure it would have been great to win money, but I'm not planning to earn with playing like this.

[kkaspar]

If 7% of all bitcoins really are gone then the price rise would be more like 30% because the 7% were from the actively traded float, not from the several million hoarded and locked away in Arctic-cold storage.

You seem to be forgetting that there were also a lot of fiat afloat at mtgox that was meant for BTC. BTC will lose that fiat, and probably any new fiat that would of came from those who owned it.

the fiat can be just Ctrl-P 'printed' back into existence ... the bitcoins, they are gone forever ... chew on that genius

You seem to have trouble understanding the point I was making.

[threecats]

I am certain that it will go back down again after this rally, but even so you are missing out on 30% profit by continuing to wait till it goes back down to the $200-$300 range? It might go back down to that price range, but I assure you it will not stay at that price point for longer than a day.  

I don't like to play these unstable rises that are made up of stupidity and hype. To me, it's the same as passing the roulette table and cursing at yourself "If I should have called red at the moment, then I could have won big". Sure it would have been great to win money, but I'm not planning to earn with playing like this.

except a large percentage is not stupidity and hype, but real world market influencing events and conditions.

[spooderman]

I sodl at 400. You have me to thank for this rally.

$4000 dollars down so far. arrgggggg

it is now my informed opinion that the bear market is well and truly 0v3r!

[kkaspar]

Well given that you were dead set on only buying coins at 200-300 usd and not above I can understand your sentiment
Gox was/is really bad news and the crash down to around 400 reflects that.

But I still believe that without the massive Goxxing we would have bottomed out at 500-550ish
Whatever, this is speculation. You may still get your coins. I however don't feel sorry for you.
If you are not willing to take even a little bit of risk (buying in at around 400) or being too greedy its solely your own fault

There are always opportunities to invest your money in. Many people here may see that bitcoin is the only investment opportunity given to them next to their daily routine jobs and I think this will also make them take stupid risks. They are just too dependent on bitcoin and they have become emotionally attached. I'm ok with not investing into bitcoin at all if it wont become attractive enough. There are always good investment opportunities around.

[ElectricMucus]

I am certain that it will go back down again after this rally, but even so you are missing out on 30% profit by continuing to wait till it goes back down to the $200-$300 range? It might go back down to that price range, but I assure you it will not stay at that price point for longer than a day.  

I don't like to play these unstable rises that are made up of stupidity and hype. To me, it's the same as passing the roulette table and cursing at yourself "If I should have called red at the moment, then I could have won big". Sure it would have been great to win money, but I'm not planning to earn with playing like this.

except a large percentage is not stupidity and hype, but real world market influencing events and conditions.

I think you may have difficulties distinguishing cause and effect.

The reason for this bounce is purely "technical", not "fundamental". That may not be related to stupidity but it had nothing to do with events.

[Dr. LY]

Hype and stupidity? Bitcoin just got plastered on the homepage of CNN, Forbes, and CNBC.

It was the #1 google search today.

Bad publicity? Sure. But for every 99 people who watched and laugh smugly at the demise of bitcoin, 1 of those people wondered if this was the perfect time to buy.

Which it is.

[kkaspar]

except a large percentage is not stupidity and hype, but real world market influencing events and conditions.

Yeah right. One of the biggest exchanges just shut it's doors, without announcing any proper explanations or plans of action. Only information you have on it are all kinds of rumors.
And you are telling me that this rise isn't fueled by stupidity and hype but by "real world market influencing events and conditions".
Well, I think that we should agree to disagree here.

[RicePicker]

The rate on BFX to short right now is ridiculous. If you are willing to pay that rate just to short you are nuts.

[raid_n]

Well given that you were dead set on only buying coins at 200-300 usd and not above I can understand your sentiment
Gox was/is really bad news and the crash down to around 400 reflects that.

But I still believe that without the massive Goxxing we would have bottomed out at 500-550ish
Whatever, this is speculation. You may still get your coins. I however don't feel sorry for you.
If you are not willing to take even a little bit of risk (buying in at around 400) or being too greedy its solely your own fault

There are always opportunities to invest your money in. Many people here may see that bitcoin is the only investment opportunity given to them next to their daily routine jobs and I think this will also make them take stupid risks. They are just too dependent on bitcoin and they have become emotionally attached. I'm ok with not investing into bitcoin at all if it wont become attractive enough. There are always good investment opportunities around.

The point is: You are speculating on a specific price point you believe is a "good investment" based on your future predictions of where bitcoin will head

This is absolutely no different than anyone else investing at any price point.
You can elaborate all you want on how it is not important to you to invest and how bitcoin as a protocol will fail etc.
All I am seeing here is someone who wants to buy in cheap. There is nothing contrary to this perception in your statements

[kkaspar]

The point is: You are speculating on a specific price point you believe is a "good investment" based on your future predictions of where bitcoin will head

This is absolutely no different than anyone else investing at any price point.
You can elaborate all you want on how it is not important to you to invest and how bitcoin as a protocol will fail etc.
All I am seeing here is someone who wants to buy in cheap. There is nothing contrary to this perception in your statements

The main difference is that I need more certainty then "look! everyone are buying! you should also buy!". I need some real developments regarding the commodity or the integrity of the entire market system. Thats just the way I roll and it's no use to try to convert me.

[ErisDiscordia]

it's like there was a poisonous snake coiled up on bitstamp at 400 who silently waiting to attack and just bit all the shorts to death. I've never seen such a drastic morphing of the order book and complete change in trend overnight. it's like chuck norris round house kicked the chart.

I'm laughing way too hard at this!

Just woke up and expected to see the price around 500$ instead it surprises me once again by having shot up all the way to 600$. We are entering CCMF territory once again. Watching for a retracement before starting the slow grind up. It's no quick task to get this heavy train rolling, this has just been the firing up of the engines!

[MANofthePEOPLE]

Who's got the balls to short this? 

[tarmi]

Who's got the balls not to short this? 

FTFY

[FNG]

If 7% of all bitcoins really are gone then the price rise would be more like 30% because the 7% were from the actively traded float, not from the several million hoarded and locked away in Arctic-cold storage.

You seem to be forgetting that there were also a lot of fiat afloat at mtgox that was meant for BTC. BTC will lose that fiat, and probably any new fiat that would of came from those who owned it.

It's fun to see how everyone are trying to downplay the gox situation and are trying to make this look good.

How much fiat was destined for btc that ended up getting gox paper btc. Now when funds are wired to an exchange to purchase btc they will be purchasing btc. Future fiat will have a greater impact as it's not traveling down a black hole.

there will also be a percentage of people who lost all of there stash but now fully buy into the bitcoin bull scenario. They must buy again

[spooderman]

Yes, many people lost all, or a large part of their stash. The mature will accept their losses and buy again.

choo

[lumierre]

Sentiment reversed. It's a waiting game now. Hold on tight.

[ChrisML]

BTC goes up 30% BUY BUY BUY!

BTC goes down 15% SELL SELL SELL. WE DEAD, WE SO DEAD.

[JCviggen]

Bitcoinbuilder now has an FAQ opening the site, and you need to accept the conditions before you can go any futher (unfortunately at this point the accept button leads to a page that doesn't exist)

Important Update: 2014-02-26
Late Monday, mtgox froze all transfer and withdrawals from their site.. and then took the site down. The general reports now are that they are likely insolvent... see Google News ("Bitcoin" search).

If you buy a GOXBTC on Bitcoin Builder, the risk you are taking is immense. The chance it will ever become a whole bitcoin or even a fraction of one are now in our opinion likely tiny to none.

Until something dramatically changes with regards to mtgox we cannot at this time process GOXBTC withdrawals or deposits. In fact, the "GOXBTC" you might trade are simply ones that had been in the bitcoinbuilder account on mtgox before they went dark. We can offer no guarantee on the future liquidity, value, or existence of these coins.

I had no inside knowledge of the situation at mtgox and am truly shocked at the current state of their affairs. I personally have over 8,000 GOXBTC and $400,000 USD locked in their system, and am still converting all "real" BTC trading fees from the site to GOXBTC, and I will never sell any personal GOXBTC via this site.

I am currently investigating legal avenues to attempt to claim some portion of the assets Bitcoin Builder (and therefore its users) have with Mt. Gox. I expect the chance this will be at all successful is slim.

[kkaspar]

How much fiat was destined for btc that ended up getting gox paper btc. Now when funds are wired to an exchange to purchase btc they will be purchasing btc. Future fiat will have a greater impact as it's not traveling down a black hole.

there will also be a percentage of people who lost all of there stash but now fully buy into the bitcoin bull scenario. They must buy again

I agree that the market system will be of better quality without gox. But the market system hasn't restarted itself yet. The problem with gox is still without answers and solutions.

It was funny to me how many people translated gox just shutting it's doors as the solution and how everything is fixed now.