Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ErisDiscordia]

Dunno about you guys but I am sick of having to defend bitcoin over the last couple of days against all the told-you-so mockers.

Its like everyones gone retarded and decides nows a good time bring up all the old fallable arguments against Bitcoin.
I even had the old " You can't pay yoru mortgage in BTC so its a speculative investment and thats it" to "I heard that the CEO of bitcoin took everyones money"

One co-worker couldn't understand when I said I'd rather hold a deflating asset than an inflating one that I meant in general and to convert btc to fiat if and when necerssary. To which he replied so you could live without cash now?!

 I mean WTF these are intelligent people.

Be happy. This means that most of the people, while having heard of Bitcoin by now, still know next to nothing about it. What does this tell you about its potential for growth? 

[kkaspar]

Dunno about you guys but I am sick of having to defend bitcoin over the last couple of days against all the told-you-so mockers.

Its like everyones gone retarded and decides nows a good time bring up all the old fallable arguments against Bitcoin.
I even had the old " You can't pay yoru mortgage in BTC so its a speculative investment and thats it" to "I heard that the CEO of bitcoin took everyones money"

One co-worker couldn't understand when I said I'd rather hold a deflating asset than an inflating one that I meant in general and to convert btc to fiat if and when necerssary. To which he replied so you could live without cash now?!

 I mean WTF these are intelligent people.

It's the steep deflationary nature of bitcoin that turns most people off. It does make bitcoin look like a pyramid scheme and the number of followers who are exhibiting cult behavior aren't exactly helping either.

[ShroomsKit_Disgrace]

Dunno about you guys but I am sick of having to defend bitcoin over the last couple of days against all the told-you-so mockers.

Its like everyones gone retarded and decides nows a good time bring up all the old fallable arguments against Bitcoin.
I even had the old " You can't pay yoru mortgage in BTC so its a speculative investment and thats it" to "I heard that the CEO of bitcoin took everyones money"

One co-worker couldn't understand when I said I'd rather hold a deflating asset than an inflating one that I meant in general and to convert btc to fiat if and when necerssary. To which he replied so you could live without cash now?!

 I mean WTF these are intelligent people.

Be happy. This means that most of the people, while having heard of Bitcoin by now, still know next to nothing about it. What does this tell you about its potential for growth? 

Anyway, Where the fuck is the CEO of Bitcoin and why doesnt he save all of us? 

[kkaspar]

Fact is, the *exact* same argument ("this will scare away new investors!") was made in September last year when Silk Road was taken down.

The *exact* same argument was made when price dropped sharply from ~260 to ~60 in April last year.

In either of those cases, nothing like that happened. In case of SR, it was particularly stunning how the brief flash crash (that did happen as a result of the news) revealed a solid underlying buying pressure that was lying dormant until then. It started the rally that led to the December ATH, in fact.

Please note what I am saying vs. what I am *not* saying: I don't claim to know whether the bear market just reversed. Just that looking at an "objectively bad" news item and concluding it will negatively affect price will get you nowhere in market analysis. It's simply not how the human mind seems to work, collectively: any event is interpreted in a highly contextual framework. And right now, I would be careful to conclude that the result of that interpretation is going to greatly depress price (see, e.g., the very solid recovery to ~600, or the huge jump in USD on the Bitstamp order book)

You are comparing the demise of an tor drug market to the demise of one of the biggest exchanges with the biggest holdings?

[oda.krell]

Oh dear, Jorge. Have you *still* learned nothing? This time it's not about misunderstanding BTC, but how markets work...

>However, the headlines in mainstream media are going to scare away potential investors

Repeat until you understand: Price does *not* follow news.

But that's not clearly not true. (see below)

Fact is, the *exact* same argument ("this will scare away new investors!") was made in September last year when Silk Road was taken down.

That is not the argument that was being made here or elsewhere from what I remember.  The argument was mainly that BTC would be impacted by the loss of SR coin-flow.

When SR was taken down the market responded to the news (it went down), then it thought about the news (and thought...maybe this is good for BTC) and went up.  SO, the news is having an impact on price.

The *exact* same argument was made when price dropped sharply from ~260 to ~60 in April last year.

Again, as I recall there were issues with regaining market confidence....so, these behaviours are impacted by 'news'.

In either of those cases, nothing like that happened. In case of SR, it was particularly stunning how the brief flash crash (that did happen as a result of the news) revealed a solid underlying buying pressure that was lying dormant until then. It started the rally that led to the December ATH, in fact.

I've always thought that rise was driven by Chinese investment.

Please note what I am saying vs. what I am *not* saying: I don't claim to know whether the bear market just reversed. Just that looking at an "objectively bad" news item and concluding it will negatively affect price will get you nowhere in market analysis. It's simply not how the human mind seems to work, collectively: any event is interpreted in a highly contextual framework. And right now, I would be careful to conclude that the result of that interpretation is going to greatly depress price (see, e.g., the very solid recovery to ~600, or the huge jump in USD on the Bitstamp order book)

The news is not the market...the news is that people lost their money.  This is the angle the MSM will take and they do this because its powerful.  If you think Fonzie does Btc-FUD, wait til you see Oprah do it.

We need a sustained bear market, if for no other reason than to sort out the structural issues within the BTC eco-system.  The idea that we should be constantly vacillating between bear and bull markets, all the while under-mining public confidence seems incredulous.

It's easy to go back and read the wall thread of back then. During the April bear market, that very argument was absolutely prevalent: "with such wild swings, investors will lose confidence". Didn't happen.

You're partially right about SR. In the SR aftermath, two arguments were made: (a) "the last real usage case of BTC jsut went down" (LOL, in retrospect), and (b) "investors will read about criminal activity and BTC, and will lose all confidence".

You can see how I see those arguments as pretty similar to what is being said now: it's always about "new investors losing confidence", and as a result, not joining the market.

What this arguments ignore is the fluctuation of the market sentiment before the news broke, and the price. By the time the news item hits the mainstream media, the following is true:

(1) price is well below the previous ATH

(2) the already involved investors had some time to "digest" the crash

Add to that the pure exposure value of BTC reporting, and you can see why, every damn time so far, the result of the news coverage wasn't a dragging bear market, but a (delayed by a few months perhaps) new rally period. Followed by an ATH. Followed by a crash. Ad nauseam.

[TERA]

It is going down - 500 to be tested soon.

Reason: we are not that much below the long-term trend, so given the sentiment, we are "hanging in the air" when the solid ground is in 400-500, below that is a steal and above that is hopes.

what is currently the long term trend??

around $680 right?

Everyone's trendline is different. Mine says $350.

$500 is not unreasonable - it would represent a 50% retracement for a move which has not retraced at all yet.

[raid_n]

You are comparing the demise of an tor drug market to the demise of one of the biggest exchanges with the biggest holdings?

looking at the seized btc stash from DPR I think it is a fair comparison

[knarzo]

It's the steep deflationary nature of bitcoin that turns most people off. It does make bitcoin look like a pyramid scheme and the number of followers who are exhibiting cult behavior aren't exactly helping either.

Don't you guys at Centralbanks have anything to do? Or maybe you're just butthurt cause more and more people are turning the back on your cult. 

[oda.krell]

Fact is, the *exact* same argument ("this will scare away new investors!") was made in September last year when Silk Road was taken down.

The *exact* same argument was made when price dropped sharply from ~260 to ~60 in April last year.

In either of those cases, nothing like that happened. In case of SR, it was particularly stunning how the brief flash crash (that did happen as a result of the news) revealed a solid underlying buying pressure that was lying dormant until then. It started the rally that led to the December ATH, in fact.

Please note what I am saying vs. what I am *not* saying: I don't claim to know whether the bear market just reversed. Just that looking at an "objectively bad" news item and concluding it will negatively affect price will get you nowhere in market analysis. It's simply not how the human mind seems to work, collectively: any event is interpreted in a highly contextual framework. And right now, I would be careful to conclude that the result of that interpretation is going to greatly depress price (see, e.g., the very solid recovery to ~600, or the huge jump in USD on the Bitstamp order book)

You are comparing the demise of an tor drug market to the demise of one of the biggest exchanges with the biggest holdings?

I will refrain from pointing out that you only joined a few months after the SR crash, if you promise me to go back and read a thread or two back from those days:

At the time of the SR closure, the absolutely *dominant* sentiment among the pundits in here was that it will greatly depress price. Anyone who said differently was shouted down. Took a few days, and that sentiment very clearly changed.

So, to translate it to the current day situation: yes, I compare the two events in the sense that, at face value, you might naively say "oh, it's going to keep price down for months to come".

In reality, it will probably throw price down for some days, maybe weeks. And then, gradually, it'll be seen differently, as extremely good news.

Just a few of those reasons, just from the top of my head: (1) the formerly largest exchange was run amateurishly, and was punished accordingly. (2) cheap mtgox coins that would have otherwise flooded the market are now unavailable to arbitrage down the price. (3) Mtgox investors will look to "replace" their coins (not all of them, of course. But those who *do* want to replace them will have to buy them again.

[dreamspark]

Dunno about you guys but I am sick of having to defend bitcoin over the last couple of days against all the told-you-so mockers.

Its like everyones gone retarded and decides nows a good time bring up all the old fallable arguments against Bitcoin.
I even had the old " You can't pay yoru mortgage in BTC so its a speculative investment and thats it" to "I heard that the CEO of bitcoin took everyones money"

One co-worker couldn't understand when I said I'd rather hold a deflating asset than an inflating one that I meant in general and to convert btc to fiat if and when necerssary. To which he replied so you could live without cash now?!

 I mean WTF these are intelligent people.

Be happy. This means that most of the people, while having heard of Bitcoin by now, still know next to nothing about it. What does this tell you about its potential for growth? 

Anyway, Where the fuck is the CEO of Bitcoin and why doesnt he save all of us? 

  I know right. What a Dick head.

Thing is one or two of these people have has BTC in the past .... oh wait, I think I answered my own question.

[TERA]

You are comparing the demise of an tor drug market to the demise of one of the biggest exchanges with the biggest holdings?

looking at the seized btc stash from DPR I think it is a fair comparison

The 'silk road effect' has nothing to do with the stashes and I'm not sure if we even knew the size of the stash when it first happened. Here is the silk road effect:

1) Huge black swan event happens and something shuts down
2) Investors perceive that this accounted for XX% of all bitcoin business and the death will severely damage bitcoin.
3) Investors panic and sell everything.
4) Sneaky whales who have been lurking waiting for 'some black swan event' for months and months don't give a shit and start buying like crazy.
5) All the coins that were panic sold are suddenly accumulated, with no traders or shorts getting re-filled as they should have. There is a huge imbalance in the force.
6) Investors see the gigantic buying and think 'holy shit the whales are buying. things are as bad as they can possibly get and they are BUYING. This is BOTTOM. This has suddenly turned from bearish to extremely BULLISH'
7) Investors and traders race to rebuy their coins.
8 ) A massive short squeeze happens as shorts compete against traders to fill the void in the force, compounding the effect.
9) a full recovery is completed as if nothing happened.
9) Prices CONTINUE to rally above the original point as investors who were holding off for a trend reversal are given renewed confidence and continue to pile in. The media exposure from the black swan event and the crash helps also.

[zyk]

Fact is, the *exact* same argument ("this will scare away new investors!") was made in September last year when Silk Road was taken down.

The *exact* same argument was made when price dropped sharply from ~260 to ~60 in April last year.

In either of those cases, nothing like that happened. In case of SR, it was particularly stunning how the brief flash crash (that did happen as a result of the news) revealed a solid underlying buying pressure that was lying dormant until then. It started the rally that led to the December ATH, in fact.

Please note what I am saying vs. what I am *not* saying: I don't claim to know whether the bear market just reversed. Just that looking at an "objectively bad" news item and concluding it will negatively affect price will get you nowhere in market analysis. It's simply not how the human mind seems to work, collectively: any event is interpreted in a highly contextual framework. And right now, I would be careful to conclude that the result of that interpretation is going to greatly depress price (see, e.g., the very solid recovery to ~600, or the huge jump in USD on the Bitstamp order book)

You are comparing the demise of an tor drug market to the demise of one of the biggest exchanges with the biggest holdings?

Drug misuse and their insider dealings are prosecuted... BTC exchange -owners and board member of bitcoinfoundation not.

So obvious whom you´d rather trust  

[JorgeStolfi]

In case of SR, it was particularly stunning how the brief flash crash (that did happen as a result of the news) revealed a solid underlying buying pressure that was lying dormant until then.

I wasn't paying attention to bitcoin then, but I would think that the Silk Road closeure was good news because it allowed bitcoin to free itself from the image of "coin of criminals and drug addicts", and therefore became acceptable to the vast majority of people who would rather not get involved with those things.

But the messages of the MtGOX headlines are "thousands of investors have lost their savings by investing in bitcoin" and "even the largest and oldest exchange may close without warning and disappear with your coins and money".  How can anyone possibly consider that "good news for bitcoin"?

It started the rally that led to the December ATH, in fact.

Perhaps the Silk Road closure helped, but that rally was obviously due to the opening of the huge Chinese market.  Increased demand, fixed supply = higher price, isn't that obvious?

So much so, that the price crashed when China put restrictions on bitcoin, and partially recovered when Huobi and OKCoin found a partial workaround that kept that market alive.

To me it is obvious that arbitrage from the main Chinese exchanges has had a strong (mostly, but not entirely, stabilizing) effect on the price in western exchanges, all the time.  For example, it was probably the main contributor to the fast recovery after the damage done by that 10 kBTC whale on Bitstamp.  Huobi and OKCoin are large reservoirs that can absorb or supply coins to the (much smaller) western exchanges without much effect on their own price.

(Why do bitcoiners keep saying that the Chinese exchanges are all fake and irrelevant?  It is like saying that Apple sales are fake and therefore the company is irrelevant to Silicon Valley...)

[kkaspar]

You are comparing the demise of an tor drug market to the demise of one of the biggest exchanges with the biggest holdings?

looking at the seized btc stash from DPR I think it is a fair comparison

No it isn't. Not even in that perspective, because the sums that are involved with gox are much bigger.
But the more important aspect is the confidence.
Bitcoin is no longer just play money that is run by drug dealers. Currently it is pushed by legal financing. If some drug market goes bust, then it means nothing in the legal field. Investors with legal interests are even happy to see that bitcoin is distancing itself from drug trade.

But when a big exchange goes bust, that is the intermediate link between BTC and $, then the entire system will be questioned. If gox can get away with "sorry, but the money seems to be gone", then people will question what stops the other exchanges from doing the same. After all, there are no repercussions.  
Not to mention that drug dealers/buyers won't be seen talking on TV, how they lost their drug money. But we will see fathers of 3, who will tell their stories, how bitcoin promised them riches, but instead wiped them dry.

[magicmexican]

Paul Buitink @paulbuitink · 1m

Additional info: the 3 companies bidding on Gox are well-known in the #bitcoin industry. Hope the community can solve the Gox problem asap.

[TERA]

Paul Buitink @paulbuitink · 1m

Additional info: the 3 companies bidding on Gox are well-known in the #bitcoin industry. Hope the community can solve the Gox problem asap.

What gox problem? gox is perfectly fine as it is - the best it has been in years. Look how well prices are doing on bitstamp now.

[tailor]

[quote author=oda.krell link=topic=178336.msg5385505#msg5385505 date=1393424229
Just a few of those reasons, just from the top of my head: (1) the formerly largest exchange was run amateurishly, and was punished accordingly. (2) cheap mtgox coins that would have otherwise flooded the market are now unavailable to arbitrage down the price. (3) Mtgox investors will look to "replace" their coins (not all of them, of course. But those who *do* want to replace them will have to buy them again.
[/quote]

(1) ... end exposed a real risk to people investing real money: none of the exchanges provide any sort of real security. Investing is much more risky than in any other sort of typical investment.
(2) ... and the other half of the equation: money used to buy the mtgox coins is also unavailable.
(3) ... but given (2), not many investors are likely to be buying back to the same levels.

Until there's certainty around the mtgox situation (and not just the rampant speculation) it will be a drag on the markets.  

[zyk]

You are comparing the demise of an tor drug market to the demise of one of the biggest exchanges with the biggest holdings?

looking at the seized btc stash from DPR I think it is a fair comparison

No it isn't. Not even in that perspective, because the sums that are involved with gox are much bigger.
But the more important aspect is the confidence.
Bitcoin is no longer just play money that is run by drug dealers. Currently it is pushed by legal financing. If some drug market goes bust, then it means nothing in the legal field. Investors with legal interests are even happy to see that bitcoin is distancing itself from drug trade.

But when a big exchange goes bust, that is the intermediate link between BTC and $, then the entire system will be questioned. If gox can get away with "sorry, but the money seems to be gone", then people will question what stops the other exchanges from doing the same. After all, there are no repercussions.  
Not to mention that drug dealers/buyers won't be seen talking on TV, how they lost their drug money. But we will see fathers of 3, who will tell their stories, how bitcoin promised them riches, but instead wiped them dry.

Thats correct ----SR made clear that BTC works as criminals get prosecuted...MT.Gox is doing the opposite !!

BTC is fucked if theft thereof doesn´t mean jail time for everybody involved ( Ponzi-passthrough operators) rather than a lifetime

seat at the "foundation"

bought at bitcoi

[delphic]

People seem to be making unjustified assumptions about these 740k 'missing' bitcoins.

The total number of bitcoins is always a known figure. The unknown is how many of these are in cold storage , and even that can be estimated to some extent from the blockchain.

One possibility is that the key(s) to the 740k have been lost forever.

Another possibility is that MtGox somehow sent 'replacement' Bitcoins to customers who falsely/fraudulently claimed that bitcoin transactions had failed, over a long period - meaning that these coins have long been in circulation already.

A third possibilty is that the 740k has all been stolen in one go.

A fourth possibility is that the figure of 740k is an unfounded exaggeration.

A fifth possibilty is that the theft/loss is bullshit, and the coins are there in MtGox.

A sixth possibility is that this supposed pool of 740k coins at MtGox never existed in the first place.

One thing I am sure of now - I wish MtGox would just wither and die for good. It is poison to the Bitcoin 'project'. Though I sympathise with all who may have lost assets as a result.