Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[kkaspar]

Surely it's possible that it is not bitcoin itself that is going to be the HUGE thing. but if some other cryptocurrency should come in existence and starts to look better and better it's going to be easy to jump from bitcoin to that one. And still get the huge profits because nothing can come to existence with possibilities to compete with bitcoin and not being so that it has to gain its value little by little. Problem solved and everyones still going to be rich if they have the insight to do this possibly upcoming jump from btc to this other that in my mind doesn't exist yet. Because I think thats the case with almost everyone of us in here, I don't believe that too many of us have to insist that is HAS TO BE bitcoin that is the end game, we just jump to this better one when it seems necessary. Because if we wouldn't then that would really be cultist behaviour in my opinion. But I think we can agree that cryptocurrencies are here NOW and they are not going away. Lots of money coming to those guys who know what is the best place to be holding a position. ATM I think bitcoin is the thing. Hope someone agrees with me.  

I agree that it will be easy to jump coins. The only thing is that most of the people who are showing strong cult behavior won't notice the opportunity and they will be forever hodling. I think that bitcoin will forever hold some value for it's historical importance. It just won't ever become an serious financial tool.
Most of the people here seem to think that bitcoin is the end game. I will always fall under a series of furious attacks when I say that bitcoin will probably only have couple of years max left in it. Just look how this discussion started and how so many people felt a sudden urge to direct their posts towards me.

[raid_n]

That is the dumbest answer I've seen from you yet.

As much as it annoys me that you keep introducing new reasons of why bitcoin is not for you whenever an argument shows that it is not a black and white answer and bitcoin could have merit I do value that this discussion is taking place with solid arguments.

The potential for getting rich is a reflection of the high risks you are actually pointing out.
Bitcoin could be replaced by some other crypto currency.
All the points you are making are the reasons why bitcoins current value is what it is and why it might be magnitudes more once they are resolved.
Just like you many many people are saying the risk is too high.

Please don't put words into my mouth. I have never said that bitcoin is not for me. I have earned quite a buck with investing in bitcoin. The disagreement comes where I don't see that bitcoin has a very long future infront of it. I see about a year or maybe two.
And I have been telling if the problems with the current market threat is resolved, then the price can go up.

It seems that if you don't agree with the constant shouts of "now this is the bottom and it will go up!" or arguments like "bitcoin will be used for decades to come!" then people here will actually start to demonize you, with acting like you are saying things that you have never actually said.

There is no reason to get defensive here.
So you do not believe that the protocol can last much longer than maybe a few years?
That's great but I feel that half of your arguments have nothing to do with that sentiment.

And to clarify things on the protocol level.
Bitcoin does something elegant that Lamport already proposed in 84 when talking about the consensus problem.
Cryptographically signed messages make solving the Byzantine generals problem easier because attackers can't forge the general's message
This is the basic building block for bitcoin.
Other consensus variants are better for other tasks (Like using a Total order multicast for a replicated state machine).
Sticking everything into one protocol makes absolutely no sense.
You bloat the system, the code gets messy and ultimately this can lead to major problems in the long run.

A slim protocol is a good thing in this respect. It is easier to maintain and better to understand

[TERA]

Some of you should consider selling, this upcoming shitstorm about Mt.Gox is goin to be evil and might last a few weeks/months.
It is not at all comparable to Silkroad.

Looks like some whales on stamp would LOVE a shitstorm and have set nets for it.

We have seen huge bid depth on Gox before.....

It´s probably just whales trying to calm everyone down, tryin to protect their investment. I wouldn´t bet on it that all buy walls are real.

I would bet that for every buy wall there, there are 3 dark orders also.

[polyclef]

Turing completeness is a horrible idea for scripting in a cryptocurrency. Just look at the past couple of decades of vulnerabilities in java, javascript, flash, etc, etc.  Turing complete money will drain your wallet on it's own.

The only thing I can see stopping it is another cryptocurrency which accomplishes everything that Bitcoin does and more, only with a codebase so different that Bitcoin can not adopt these added desirable features.

May I ask how important you feel Turing completeness is in the scripting language?

I'm sorry, I do not have the technical knowledge to answer this question. Give me a few days and I may be able to give you an answer.

[raid_n]

Turing completeness is a horrible idea for scripting in a cryptocurrency. Just look at the past couple of decades of vulnerabilities in java, javascript, flash, etc, etc.  Turing complete money will drain your wallet on it's own.

The only thing I can see stopping it is another cryptocurrency which accomplishes everything that Bitcoin does and more, only with a codebase so different that Bitcoin can not adopt these added desirable features.

May I ask how important you feel Turing completeness is in the scripting language?

I'm sorry, I do not have the technical knowledge to answer this question. Give me a few days and I may be able to give you an answer.

+1

[Solarstorm75]

We have seen huge bid depth on Gox before.....

It´s probably just whales trying to calm everyone down, tryin to protect their investment. I wouldn´t bet on it that all buy walls are real.

Or someone is painting the orderbook , to animate the sheeples to buy.

Don't bet on walls!

[kkaspar]

There is no reason to get defensive here.
So you do not believe that the protocol can last much longer than maybe a few years?
That's great but I feel that half of your arguments have nothing to do with that sentiment.

And to clarify things on the protocol level.
Bitcoin does something elegant that Lamport already proposed in 84 when talking about the consensus problem.
Cryptographically signed messages make solving the Byzantine generals problem easier because attackers can't forge the general's message
This is the basic building block for bitcoin.
Other consensus variants are better for other tasks (Like using a Total order multicast for a replicated state machine).
Sticking everything into one protocol makes absolutely no sense.
You bloat the system, the code gets messy and ultimately this can lead to major problems in the long run.

A slim protocol is a good thing in this respect. It is easier to maintain and better to understand

In my vision what stops bitcoin from going much further: a) Speed of increasing wealth concentration b) Deflationary system that prohibits price stability c) Inefficiency of mining where new resources are spent while the network doesn't gain in speed or security.
I find these properties to be core properties that are also highly flawed and beyond fixing.

[TERA]

We have seen huge bid depth on Gox before.....

It´s probably just whales trying to calm everyone down, tryin to protect their investment. I wouldn´t bet on it that all buy walls are real.

Or someone is painting the orderbook , to animate the sheeples to buy.

Don't bet on walls!

I'm not saying those walls mean buy now or that they are impenetrable. But I am saying that walls are a general indicator of the amount of strength that is there. The more vertical and consistent the bid looks, the closer you are to having hit bottom. It should start looking like one giant wall rather than a collection of individual walls. I know this can theoretically be faked, but in the past it has served as a very reliable indicator (at least from my point of view). The time inbetween bubbles is basically time spent building walls. When a bubble first pops, the walls are very scattered and inconsistent looking with all kinds of cliffs for the price fall of. Once the proper arrangement of walls is reconstructed, then the rally is ready to resume.

[Peter R]

Turing completeness is a horrible idea for scripting in a cryptocurrency. Just look at the past couple of decades of vulnerabilities in java, javascript, flash, etc, etc.  Turing complete money will drain your wallet on it's own.

The only thing I can see stopping it is another cryptocurrency which accomplishes everything that Bitcoin does and more, only with a codebase so different that Bitcoin can not adopt these added desirable features.

May I ask how important you feel Turing completeness is in the scripting language?

I'm sorry, I do not have the technical knowledge to answer this question. Give me a few days and I may be able to give you an answer.

+1

These are good points too.  Turing completeness in a scripting language means that "anything computable, can be computed by running the appropriate script."  So there is an infinite surface of potential problems that would slowly show themselves, I think.  The Java exploits are a good analogy.  

[billyjoeallen]

All we need now is some hapless bears to dump and start the bull shark feeding frenzy. Keep spreading FUD. The trap is set. Now all we need is bait.

[raid_n]

There is no reason to get defensive here.
So you do not believe that the protocol can last much longer than maybe a few years?
That's great but I feel that half of your arguments have nothing to do with that sentiment.

And to clarify things on the protocol level.
Bitcoin does something elegant that Lamport already proposed in 84 when talking about the consensus problem.
Cryptographically signed messages make solving the Byzantine generals problem easier because attackers can't forge the general's message
This is the basic building block for bitcoin.
Other consensus variants are better for other tasks (Like using a Total order multicast for a replicated state machine).
Sticking everything into one protocol makes absolutely no sense.
You bloat the system, the code gets messy and ultimately this can lead to major problems in the long run.

A slim protocol is a good thing in this respect. It is easier to maintain and better to understand

In my vision what stops bitcoin from going much further: a) Speed of increasing wealth concentration b) Deflationary system that prohibits price stability c) Inefficiency of mining where new resources are spend while the network doesn't gain in speed or security.
I find these properties to be core properties that are also highly flawed and beyond fixing.

To a) : Would you agree with me that in our current system as you get wealthier it becomes easier to increase that wealth even more?
You are also comparing apples to oranges. The current value increase is price discovery and not deflation. Deflation will happen once this has stabilized

b) I'm not sure what you mean here. If bitcoin finds mass adoption prices won't fluctuate as much.
Because bitcoin is deflationary the incentive to spend it is lower. It will be interesting to see how that plays out on a larger scale if
bitcoin is ever to become mainstream

c) I've told you before that Proof of Work is a robust way of building consensus in such an anonymous probabilistic consensus
Bitcoin is a protocol. If a better method comes along that is guaranteed to work it can be implemented trivially.

People need to wrap their head around the fact that bitcoin is what the majority of miners use as a protocol.
Anything can be changed, yes this includes the 21 million cap. If everyone adopts a protocol that changes this then
thats that. If some don't agree with this you'd fork bitcoin, effectively creating a new altcoin.

[TERA]

All we need now is some hapless bears to dump and start the bull shark feeding frenzy. Keep spreading FUD. The trap is set. Now all we need is bait.

Now I'm not being bearish here but I think it's almost a certainty that the current chart is overbought and that we need to retest some level around 500 to 'complete' the chart. Unfortunately, this might not happen until some bears come along and help it happen with FUD. At that point, when the FUD is driving it down and it's reached 500, the FUD might be so strong you might no longer think 'oh 500 the excellent buying opportunity I've been waiting for". You might instead think that it's going to 400 or even that 400 was not the bottom after all and that it's going to even lower levels. Then suddenly the price will rebound back to 600 and you'll be left with no coins, feeling like an idiot.

[raid_n]

Turing completeness is a horrible idea for scripting in a cryptocurrency. Just look at the past couple of decades of vulnerabilities in java, javascript, flash, etc, etc.  Turing complete money will drain your wallet on it's own.

The only thing I can see stopping it is another cryptocurrency which accomplishes everything that Bitcoin does and more, only with a codebase so different that Bitcoin can not adopt these added desirable features.

May I ask how important you feel Turing completeness is in the scripting language?

I'm sorry, I do not have the technical knowledge to answer this question. Give me a few days and I may be able to give you an answer.

+1

These are good points too.  Turing completeness in a scripting language means that "anything computable, can be computed by running the appropriate script."  So there is an infinite surface of potential problems that would slowly show themselves, I think.  The Java exploits are a good analogy.  

just think about something like  
{ while true; }
in the scripting language. I send you such a transaction. Will your machine lock up in an endless loop?

[edit] just to point out the irony in this. If the scripting language is turing complete there will always be the possibility of
implementing non-terminating code. And because of the halting problem you can't deterministically decide if a piece of code
is going to terminate or not.

[Peter R]

All we need now is some hapless bears to dump and start the bull shark feeding frenzy. Keep spreading FUD. The trap is set. Now all we need is bait.

Now I'm not being bearish here but I think it's almost a certainty that the current chart is overbought and that we need to retest some level around 500 to 'complete' the chart. Unfortunately, this might not happen until some bears come along and help it happen with FUD. At that point, when the FUD is driving it down and it's reached 500, the FUD might be so strong you might no longer think 'oh 500 the excellent buying opportunity I've been waiting for". You might instead think that it's going to 400 or even that 400 was not the bottom after all and that it's going to even lower levels. Then suddenly the price will rebound back to 600 and you'll be left with no coins, feeling like an idiot.

I've learned a lot from people like you, TERA.  I used to think that TA was voodoo science no better than a coin toss. Now I see how the price wave cycles drive the news/FUD as much as the news/FUD drives the price.  It's quite fascinating, really. 

[mb300sd]

Turing completeness is a horrible idea for scripting in a cryptocurrency. Just look at the past couple of decades of vulnerabilities in java, javascript, flash, etc, etc.  Turing complete money will drain your wallet on it's own.

The only thing I can see stopping it is another cryptocurrency which accomplishes everything that Bitcoin does and more, only with a codebase so different that Bitcoin can not adopt these added desirable features.

May I ask how important you feel Turing completeness is in the scripting language?

I'm sorry, I do not have the technical knowledge to answer this question. Give me a few days and I may be able to give you an answer.

+1

These are good points too.  Turing completeness in a scripting language means that "anything computable, can be computed by running the appropriate script."  So there is an infinite surface of potential problems that would slowly show themselves, I think.  The Java exploits are a good analogy. 

just think about something like 
{ while true; }
in the scripting language. I send you such a transaction. Will your machine lock up in an endless loop?

No comment on weather this is a good idea or not, but theres a simple solution to this particular problem: fees.

Only execute the first x operations, where x=fee*const. Sure, you could make a machine freeze up for a half a second, but you'd be paying out the ass to do it.

[Peter R]

No comment on weather this is a good idea or not, but theres a simple solution to this particular problem: fees.

Only execute the first x operations, where x=fee*const. Sure, you could make a machine freeze up for a half a second, but you'd be paying out the ass to do it.

Thanks mb300sd.  I was about to write the same comment.  

[raid_n]

No comment on weather this is a good idea or not, but theres a simple solution to this particular problem: fees.

Only execute the first x operations, where x=fee*const. Sure, you could make a machine freeze up for a half a second, but you'd be paying out the ass to do it.

Thanks mb300sd.  I was about to write the same comment.  

Yes, thats probably the way you'd want to implement it.
But then calculating fees is going to be hard/impossible.
Any time you have conditionals you'll have to take into consideration the longest possible execution and use that as a fee

[soullyG]

No comment on weather this is a good idea or not, but theres a simple solution to this particular problem: fees.

Only execute the first x operations, where x=fee*const. Sure, you could make a machine freeze up for a half a second, but you'd be paying out the ass to do it.

Thanks mb300sd.  I was about to write the same comment.  

Yep, this is how Ethereum is handling it:

https://github.com/ethereum/wiki/wiki/[English]-White-Paper#wiki-fees

[ErisDiscordia]

The thing about Jorge is that he’s a provincial academic. In a country outside the G8, at that. Like most minor academics, especially in middle age, there is a tendency to bitterness which they are self-aware enough to hide. They are the losers and they know it.

At one point the potential must have seemed endless. Imagine being in California in the early 80s, studying Math or Computing at Stanford – what possibilities! The world ready throw billions at you and your contemporaries! Who wouldn’t start a company? Who wouldn’t invest in friends? Who wouldn’t risk just a little in their own future?

No, play it safe. Rise above the crass entrepreneurialism. Teach. Head back to a salary, with a pension. You could have done well, of course, if you’d wanted to, but the guiding, year after year, of smiling young faces was its own reward.

And now, another tech revolution unfolds in front of you. You have the understanding and the ability to invest time or money into the idea. But wait – actual involvement? Wet feet? Action? No, no, no. Not me. That would just emphasise all my other missed chances.

No, I’ll snipe from the safety of my tenure. I could have partaken, honestly, but I’m better than that. I’m aware of it, but above it, because, well, I’m an academic.

You have the talent, the time and resources. But you won’t even buy one coin to see what it’s about. You’re wasting your time and ours in a desperate bid to show some kind of superiority. You’ve taken enough advice and explanation with nothing of interest coming back. You’ve had your moment in this thread, presumably because it’s the busiest, but you should have the decency to set up your own and see if anyone will follow and care there.

Are we done bashing academia yet?  I am sure there are plenty of pro-bitcoin people there too (Jerry Brito off the top of my head).

No we're not  

Because like politicians and central banks it still gets way too much unquestioning respect and credit. It needs some more bashing.

Our whole school system is designed to turn people from random individuals into mutually interchangeable parts of a big machine. What is the first thing you learn in school? It's not reading, or writing or any of that stuff which your parents or their friends could have taught you by themselves if they weren't too busy being parts of the machine. It's that your time is not your own. It doesn't belong to you. It belongs to the authorities who will tell you when to be at a certain place, doing certain things. Better get used to it kiddo, because it's going to be like that for the rest of your life!

Next thing you learn is that mistakes are bad. So bad in fact that it is preferable to do nothing than to make mistakes. Oh and don't bother thinking for yourself. There is exactly ONE correct answer to everything and we already have it so don't bother with that, just memorize these text books.

Btw I went to university. I was interested in the subject they were "teaching". What a huge pile of horse crap that was. I quit. Everyone told me I am crazy, without education I won't get a good job! Right. As if having a Job (acronym for "Just over broke") is the only way to get by in life. Anyway I told them they are crazy for wasting their best years in such a rotten institution. And they knew it was shit. But the momentum of the whole system just carried them further and they stayed, finished their schools, got into jobs and started turning into miserable zombies just as predicted. And the ones who actually stayed in school even further, turning themselves into academics? They were the worst of the bunch. Lifeless, bland individuals, without any original thought in their heads. Conforming to the standards of authority has become the alpha and omega and everything else takes the back seat. Except their bitter conviction that somehow they are relevant. That somehow the guy who spent his whole life in academia can teach businessmen about management.

Jorge - you will get made fun of here. You got more than enough chances to join the discussion in a productive manner but you refuse to do it, instead seemingly relishing in all the (albeit negative) attention you're getting. I get it, it's become a part of your personality to define yourself as the bright, misunderstood victim of stupid bullies who just won't listen. So here you go, have some more! You are irrelevant and at best an amusement. Your murder case analogy made me laugh, for instance. Laugh at the possibility that you might be serious lol  

[billyjoeallen]

All we need now is some hapless bears to dump and start the bull shark feeding frenzy. Keep spreading FUD. The trap is set. Now all we need is bait.

Now I'm not being bearish here but I think it's almost a certainty that the current chart is overbought and that we need to retest some level around 500 to 'complete' the chart. Unfortunately, this might not happen until some bears come along and help it happen with FUD. At that point, when the FUD is driving it down and it's reached 500, the FUD might be so strong you might no longer think 'oh 500 the excellent buying opportunity I've been waiting for". You might instead think that it's going to 400 or even that 400 was not the bottom after all and that it's going to even lower levels. Then suddenly the price will rebound back to 600 and you'll be left with no coins, feeling like an idiot.

That's certainly possible, but there has been enough consolidation to potentially start the next rally from any point at any time. I wouldn't want to be full fiat when that happens.