Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[kurious]

You guys have to stop writing so much, though.

Actually the WHO just announced pets are not a risk for passing on COVID-19.

So, it's true:  WHO let the dogs out.

[El duderino_]

Still remember 10K is only a double up from here 

[psycodad]

Italy has a 3.5% mortality rate with one of the best health systems in the world.  It’s not the fucking flu.

Dude. 15113 infected, 1016 deaths, 1258 recovered. That's either 45% or 27% depending how you prefer to calculate it. Yeah, not the fucking flu.

I agree with HM that its not a common thing atm, I think it will be a common thing in the future and people will be waaaaaay more relaxed when a vaccin is out for easy buying

Viruses mutate. An effective vaccine is highly unlikely.

If the idea is there already that there is a vaccin is already enough, alright later on the virus will mutate, but now when it’s contained they will keep working for new vaccines and not like when SARS was contained to stop working on it...

Problem is that the powerful players ('big pharma') are not the slightest interested in developing a vaccine due to lacking financial incentives. Why bother developing a vaccine to be sold for a few bucks the shot when you can sell cancer therapies that cost mio's each shot. All the successful big players sold their vaccine research years ago as no good profit is expected there.

Also by the time they would come up with a vaccine, the flu could be gone already (at least in public perception) and the money spent for nothing as once the fear and panic wears off nobody will buy that vaccine. Other diseases are more certain to stay and give good profits (i.e. cancer, alzheimer etc.).

We should all engage in a nice group hug and then get fucking drunk to just sit it out. Time is working for us hodlers but against almost everything else I believe (or maybe just hope).

As always, prepare for the worst, hope for the best, enjoy the ride.

[wavessurfing]

....

There's another reason why an effective vaccine is going to be unlikely in the short term. First HIV has been around for 40 years and there is still no vaccine, some of the sequences on the spike protein for this virus have HIV homology. Secondly is, the SARS virus vaccine trials on animals revealed a mechanism known as Antibody-dependent enhancement https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antibody-dependent_enhancement which means if you get vaccinated with these vaccines then you are actually making yourself more susceptible to the virus because it hijacks the antibodies you created for it to attack your cells more readily. Which is the same mechanism that can also be triggered by a second strain of the virus which is similar but different enough to trigger a second immune response, in some cases progresses to a massive immune over-reaction, i.e. cytokine storm. (It's evil don't hyperventilate yet but just don't get it the first time). Some commentators speculated that those video clips from Wuhan and S. Korea of people collapsing in the street were cytokine storm victims who had somehow got an ADE response from a second virus infection. All that 80% mild case talk is dangerous because those people might have just made themselves vulnerable to secondary lethal infection regardless of how young healthy fit they are. In fact in that case a vigorous immune system is the threat because that is what will get you the second time around, your own body's immune reaction.

We are early days in understanding this beast.

thank you for explanation, i learn something here.
hope not to be concerned !!!

[Tash]

....

There's another reason why an effective vaccine is going to be unlikely in the short term. First HIV has been around for 40 years and there is still no vaccine, some of the sequences on the spike protein for this virus have HIV homology. Secondly is, the SARS virus vaccine trials on animals revealed a mechanism known as Antibody-dependent enhancement https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antibody-dependent_enhancement which means if you get vaccinated with these vaccines then you are actually making yourself more susceptible to the virus because it hijacks the antibodies you created for it to attack your cells more readily. Which is the same mechanism that can also be triggered by a second strain of the virus which is similar but different enough to trigger a second immune response, in some cases progresses to a massive immune over-reaction, i.e. cytokine storm. (It's evil don't hyperventilate yet but just don't get it the first time). Some commentators speculated that those video clips from Wuhan and S. Korea of people collapsing in the street were cytokine storm victims who had somehow got an ADE response from a second virus infection. All that 80% mild case talk is dangerous because those people might have just made themselves vulnerable to secondary lethal infection regardless of how young healthy fit they are. In fact in that case a vigorous immune system is the threat because that is what will get you the second time around, your own body's immune reaction.

We are early days in understanding this beast.

thank you for explanation, i learn something here.

SARS appeared out of nowhere in 2003 since 2004 not a single case reported worldwide.
None of the existing vaccine will work when another new virus appears at some future time.
Something like 26 available now, at what stage is danger of overdose.
also
https://youtu.be/f1jV3tJ2Lqw
Vaccines are "over-unity" devices. 100% healthy + shot now 101% healthy

[kurious]

1k to 2.5k

I'd buy back from $3k.

Quoted. Easy to say when BTC is above 5k...

You got me.

I never mentioned the amount though:d

@Mindrust.  There aren't many of even the hardest hodlers here who haven't sold to see it go up, or bought to see it dive.  Most have made mistakes that have cost them a % of their 'potential' if not actual stash.

The only ones who ended up really bitter were those who sold it ALL.

I doubt you want my advice, but in my opinion this awful plunge is a freak occurrence.   The likelihood of BTC being up 20%, or 25% from where it is now in a relatively short space of time is extremely high.

So if you buy back in and swallow a 25% (or whatever figure) loss now, you will just be at the same position in terms of value in fiat.

If you don't, you may never do it.  You will be one of those forever waiting for a dip that will not happen and regret it always if Bitcoin moons again.

I bought some BTC last summer around $10K, but I will only realise that loss if I sell.  So of course I won't - and I am not worried at all.   And if you don't have the balls to swallow what may soon look like a tiny loss - then at least go half back in and DCA the rest.  Have skin in the game at least?

Tell me to go fuck myself if you wish, but I strongly advise you to:  Man up, own a mistake and get back into the best asymmetrical bet you ever discovered in your life.

One that WILL go higher than here in time.   

When? Fuck knows.  If? Is not really in question.

[goldkingcoiner]

Good morning WO.

Bad news. Had to save my ass from liquidation at sub 5k. Lost more than half my coin. And I am glad I did. Because we went beyond my original liquidation point. Is the nightmare over? Are we safe?

[Review Master]

Sure, you are correct, Review Master, but miners can work at a loss for extended periods and also they will self-adjust their behavior and difficulty will adjust too... so miner costs and behavior will also adjust to the price.. to some degree..

Thanks for your supportive reply. But it's time to think about the sutiuation after the bitcoin halving. Before halving, it's sure that miner will definitely self-adjust. What will happend in the next , the cost of mining of one bitcoin will be double than now after bitcoin halving events and if the correction still going on & make a new bottom less than $3K . Than definitely , everyone will be worry about this. Also china has the most mining power of bitcoin and COVID-19 virus affect the whole economy as well as every country is lossing the connection to others. So it might be the upcoming worst thing in bitcoin history. So, pray for the affected person of covid-19 virus and hope that the nightmare of new bottom less than $3K never comes out.

At the end , i just want to thank all of those who are positive in this current situation and hodl their precious.

of course there is debate about whether miners follow BTC price or BTC price follows miner costs

yeah, i'm agree with this opinion.

[mindrust]

Have skin in the game at least?

Too late now. I'll have my skin by starting DCA'ing again. It will be a lot smaller skin though. Can't take 2btc loss.

That drop to 4000 blew my mind last night.

It is fine really. I don't feel so bad now. The only thing pains me the most I'll probably never get to the rich levels I was dreaming for all these years. I'll just be another low-mid earner.

My net worth is down to 125k now. It was 160k few months ago. I'll find other investments. I'll invest in bitcoin too but definitely not that much. Maybe I'll try real estate. Not sure.

[Spaceman_Spiff_Original]

holy crap, I can't believe I slept through that drop (without putting up the proper limit orders   ).

I just didn't imagine it could go that deep that fast.

Why do the magnificent dumps always happen when I’m asleep?

Life is unfair 

I know right?

[Paashaas]

Spain bans shorting 69 stocks.
Thailand adjusts shorting rules.
Borsa Italiana bans shorting today.
UK‘s FCA bans some shorting instruments.
S.Korea bans stock shorting for 6 months.

LoL

[heslo]

Have skin in the game at least?

Too late now. I'll have my skin by starting DCA'ing again. It will be a lot smaller skin though. Can't take 2btc loss.

That drop to 4000 blew my mind last night.

It is fine really. I don't feel so bad now. The only thing pains me the most I'll probably never get to the rich levels I was dreaming for all these years. I'll just be another low-mid earner.

My net worth is down to 125k now. It was 160k few months ago. I'll find other investments. I'll invest in bitcoin too but definitely not that much. Maybe I'll try real estate. Not sure.

Those aren't small figures by any means mate. You're ahead of most of the world. Good to see you've perked up a bit, wish you all the best

[ImThour]

If I am allowed to post my prediction, BTC will go as down as 3500 USD within a week. Buying after that will be a good investment if you are into it for years.

[Wilhelm]

Panic wave seems over
Bitcoin is climbing back to it's true value
Bitcoin survived a pandemic and proves itself again
Anyone who bought the dip *congrats*

Up to $100k

[kurious]

Have skin in the game at least?

Too late now. I'll have my skin by starting DCA'ing again. It will be a lot smaller skin though. Can't take 2btc loss.

That drop to 4000 blew my mind last night.

It is fine really. I don't feel so bad now. The only thing pains me the most I'll probably never get to the rich levels I was dreaming for all these years. I'll just be another low-mid earner.

My net worth is down to 125k now. It was 160k few months ago. I'll find other investments. I'll invest in bitcoin too but definitely not that much. Maybe I'll try real estate. Not sure.

FWIW, I lost more than that in Gox back in the day, and compared to less than a month ago, I am 'down' way more than 125K.

But glad you have found some perspective and good luck.

[aesma]

I regretted not having bought last time BTC went below 5000€ so this time I had an order ready and bought 1 BTC @ 4000€

It's already back up more than 1300€ from there !

Should have had a bigger order :p

[wavessurfing]

Italy has a 3.5% mortality rate with one of the best health systems in the world.  It’s not the fucking flu.

Dude. 15113 infected, 1016 deaths, 1258 recovered. That's either 45% or 27% depending how you prefer to calculate it. Yeah, not the fucking flu.

I agree with HM that its not a common thing atm, I think it will be a common thing in the future and people will be waaaaaay more relaxed when a vaccin is out for easy buying

Viruses mutate. An effective vaccine is highly unlikely.

If the idea is there already that there is a vaccin is already enough, alright later on the virus will mutate, but now when it’s contained they will keep working for new vaccines and not like when SARS was contained to stop working on it...

Problem is that the powerful players ('big pharma') are not the slightest interested in developing a vaccine due to lacking financial incentives. Why bother developing a vaccine to be sold for a few bucks the shot when you can sell cancer therapies that cost mio's each shot. All the successful big players sold their vaccine research years ago as no good profit is expected there.

Also by the time they would come up with a vaccine, the flu could be gone already (at least in public perception) and the money spent for nothing as once the fear and panic wears off nobody will buy that vaccine. Other diseases are more certain to stay and give good profits (i.e. cancer, alzheimer etc.).
................

i strongly disagree with you.
it is not the role of pharma industry to have an interest in developing something, they have strong incentives, but also strong controls and high costs, from government to put a drug or vaccine on the market.
They have to earn money to remain alive and progressive.
if they find an opportunity (a potential market) they will compete and develop.
rather it shows a failure of public health in most govs, especially western ones .
In 2003-2004 in france,sarkosy got afraid by a potential pandemy coming from china through his councilors, and research was done, with high expenses, and at least public health servants received the first mandatory coronavirus vaccine.
however that pandemy did not occur, and sarkosy was accused  for useless expenses.
we have no news for this vaccine, it was abandoned without publicity.
then there were Sars and Mers who were new deadly coronavirus diseases, but pandemy did not occur, and recently an american searcher said to the congress that he had after sars an mers a potential vaccine ready, but could not find any financial support to develop it ; he is not the only one probably.
so the present pandemy is at least the fourth potential one, from the same virus family, event if differences may exist as in flu epidemies.
no gov and no collection of govs of any sort has made the necessary financial incitation to lessen this danger, and warrant research and potential market use.

[kurious]

Asian markets dipped harshly overnight, but the UK FTSE has actually gone up today.

NYC will probably follow, so the 'rout' is probably calming on the FIAT markets (for now). I am not making predictions, but I will be extremely surprised if we go anywhere near sub $4k again now.   

[serveria.com]

Up 19% since the bottom (Bitcoinwisdom).  It sucks to be mindrust now

[mindrust]

Up 19% since the bottom (Bitcoinwisdom).   It sucks to be mindrust now

I never thought I would be the one who sodl the bottom but it happened. It is over now. Last night the world was coming to an end, Now it is going to 100k.  

This thing is volatile. I couldn't handle it.

Maybe If I took profits when it was above 10k It would have been another story.

I also wouldn't sell if that was a no reason dip but it wasn't. It was a global meltdown. Excuses won't change a thing...