Feeling neutral today, neither bullish nor bearish. Starting to see some relevance in the charts now, for anyone who finds more philosophical-based TA relevant (feel free to tell me I'm a moron). Looking at the breakdown from around $8K to the new lows of $3.85K, the 50% retracement is around $5.9K, with the VPVR point of (local) control at $6K, this is the current resistance and "dead cat bounce" sell levels, with the volume and fib retracement confluence likely to act as strong resistance:
While retracing 50% of the capitulation is expected, the manner in which this happened (quicker than the 50% drop), gives me a lot of hope. Closing the day back above $6K would make the Weekly candle bullish (longer wick at the bottom than the candle body). Of course, a lot could happen over the weekend, but a break above $6K would signal further bullish momentum, regardless of current volitility, liquidity or volume (fibs are still fibs, volume is still volume, MAs mean very little right now).
On the Weekly chart, we did "nothing more" than wick down to the the 2 year-long strong volume support, that imo was likely the best buying opportunity for a tiny minority of investors (in the past 2 years). Try and look at things from a different perspective, if we had taken 1-3 months to get to this level, while this would obviously be very bearish (closing below the 200 Week MA around $5.5K - never done before) by bouncing strong from it back to $6K with a 50% move upwards over the course of a few weeks, this would actually be completely normal. The fact that these moves occured, both up and down, within 48 hours, is of low significance to me right now, merely indicating an increase in volatility that may or may not be sustained.
Somebody last night (can't remember who soz) kept saying "we could be back to $8K by tomorrow" and other such bullish hopium, but the reality is this member was completely right. Just as we reached $4K levels, it was clearly no time to sell, as prices had great potential to bounce back to the breakdown level of $5.5K, as we did, even if no-one expected this to happen within an hour - it did. Don't be surprised to see BTC make another 50% move upwards back to $8K, or below $3K, within an hour.
There's little to no point in me indicating the bearish suggestion right now, it's somewhat obvious. If we break $3.85K we likely break below $3K.
Word errors included.... still hungover courtesy of eddie13's great suggestion of getting blind drunk last night
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