Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Cryptotourist]

Regarding mindrust. I'll try to summarize his in my view very controversial explanations (if not contradictory with the sound mind). He sold at $4Kish, because:

1. He was shocked in the middle of the night and the fear made him sell.
2. He was overinvested, which in his case meant $40K in bitcoins and $80K fiat reserves.   Many of us are 100% in Bitcoin regarding fiat savings, including myself. In his case mindrust had the luxury to defend his positons by buying more at lower prices. Or just wait for the recovery, which is only a matter of when, not if.
3. He felt betrayed because holders decided to sell and abandon ship. In reality not many holders sold everything. Rather many sold small portions of their stash at the same time in preparation for the next weeks without income.
4. He bought one whole bitcoin just before the crash and having 10 bitcoins turned into a heavy dissapointment. I also bought a greater amount than usual just before the crash. So what?
5. Tether is scam and when it dies, Bitcoin will die too. I can remember 2017 when tether almost died and logically people bought bitcoins with it, so the price increased 3x.
6. Bitcoin is too volatile, while the fiat and other assets are more stable. Yeah, sure. Crude oil, ahem. Fiat printers brrrr causing international financial crisis and inflations, ahem.
7. Covid-19 is so scary, so no point in keeping his bitcoins. Seriously? I can understand this only if someone is sick of some nasty illness requiring a lot of money for the treatment. Although, many of us would prefer another way of finding the money for that.
8. It is better to trade shitcoins because they are more volatile than Bitcoin?!?!?!?. For his bad luck shitcoins are doing really bad. As always.
9. It is better to trade USD vs EUR, since there was a lot of volatility recently. For his bad luck the exchange rate is almost frozen in the last weeks.

I think the only reason for mindrust sell was No. 1. The next reasons he made up as excuses not to buy again at $4500, as he claimed.  I'm really sorry for him because these two decisions obviously made him unhappy. And it is all about hope and happiness, which Bitcoin brings to the true holders. He may not realize it but he is becoming slowly into the next r0ach.

Nice story of what might have happened.
But, things almost never are what they appear to be.

1. r0ach is a BTC whale. He uses this thread to manipulate sentiment (well, try to anyway).
2. r0ach is not one person. It is a team working together, with multiple accounts each. Given the timing, mindrust could be.
3. r0ach uses state of the art tech. J tech and bots. This is what he does.

And as they say in my village: "From the drunk and from the crazy, you will hear the truth". #both

[El duderino_]

I will update this one... as mindrust lost his interest in doing so

[JayJuanGee]

Question: How can you not hold when we all know that you'll make a boat-load (lotsa money) in the next 18 months?

I am pretty sure that the dynamic is referred to as:
 information asymmetry.

So, many of us should feel good that we both recognize the quality information that we have in regards to bitcoin, and we are also ready, willing and able to act upon such information asymmetry.  Sure, BTC price dynamics to the upside could take a while to play out, such as in the ball park of another 18 months.

And, hey, there are many of us, also ,who have not been greedy with our possession of asymmetric information.  I have read a lot of stories in this thread, over the years, about many attempts that several of us BTC HODLers/accumulators have made to share bitcoin related information with various regular peeps, and sometimes it just takes time for many people to come around and either start to better understand the bitcoin related information that is presented to them and also to figure out ways to meaningfully take actions such as setting up accounts in order that they can begin to accumulate BTC (or perhaps other means to accomplish such accumulation) that will benefit them in response to having had received such asymmetric information.

Interesting points.
I know that sometimes a VERY important piece of information is presented here, but it is difficult to ascertain what it actually means (a few moves downstream) and whether to take action and how much action to take.

Here is an interesting story (of information being here on WO but not being processed [by myself] correctly or rather timely)...
In mid Feb 2020 US stock market was scaling new highs despite CV warnings and Apple suddenly warning about Q1 results. Amazingly, market AND AAPL went to ATH a week or two later. I was flabbergasted as I was contemplated buying VIX calls, yet market was dismissive of any danger of upcoming volatility.

At that time @filippone actually posted here that Italy is starting to experience some CV related stress in Lombardy. I looked at it, but was quite busy on both Thu and Fri (Feb 20 and 21) and did not buy any calls (was thinking of buying VIX25 calls that were going for $0.4 or $0.5 with VIX being at around 17 or so). So, I was thinking of probably doing this trade on Monday, Feb 24, but suddenly there were more developments in Italy over the weekend and on Feb 24 SP500 opened up with a huge gap down and VIX was at 25 already. Looking back, I still could have bought VIX25 or VIX30 calls and make 10X instead of 100X, but I looked at VIX during SARS and it never went above 30ish, so I decided to punt and did not move.

I am telling this story just to illustrate that sometimes even when your mental model is eventually proved to be correct, you still might hold back and/or do not move in time or in scale. Of course, you can say that someone could have bought those calls as soon as China made it official in January, but at that time nobody could have predicted with certainty that it would spread (SARS did not) especially since they were dealing with it apparently effectively (for the time being).

To see "proper" aggressive trading behavior and scaling into position by PTJ watch this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uYjL1uY2rv8

I agree that there are levels of assymetric information, but if we try to take in too much information, then we are likely going to be paralyzed anyhow, and there are NOT too many regular peeps in this thread who actually are trying to guess and trade the short term BTC price movements.

Seems to me that the most prevalent and even successful strategies involving BTC involve merely establish some kind of prudent level of DCA and buying on dips, and sure maybe sometimes the BTC portfolio will not be in profits, but hopefully most people who at least get off zero and begin to accumulate BTC will have positive results as long as their timeline is decently long 4 years plus and even longer.

Sometimes also many of us have to walk before we can run, so we may not be able either act upon some kind of great information or even to recognize the information as being great if we have NOT already put ourselves into a position in which acting is fairly easy.. just one more step as opposed to a whole lot of steps that we would not be able to accomplish if we had not taken some earlier preparations... you know the expression, luck is the place where preparation meets opportunity.

So, frequently quite a bit of action has to be taken in order to prepare, and I frequently will tell people to get to know their own situation such as cash flow, other investments, view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, risk tolerance, timeline, time and skills to learn and to manage and tweak portfolio, including trading.  It can take a long time to figure out ones own situation, too, but at some point, small actions can be taken while continuing to learn and to tweak, so if we just analyze and we do not act then we might not be in a good place to take advantage of some opportunities that might be staring us in the face.. but we have not taken adequate preparatory steps.. and a decent amount of those preparation steps take active engagement rather than just reading about it in threads like this... but reading about it can be a start and a motivator, too.

[El duderino_]

https://twitter.com/danheld/status/1261134631354523648?s=20

Data from
@skewdotcom
https://twitter.com/danheld/status/1261134728473669634?s=20

[jbreher]

Everyone is saying by 2023 we will be rich.

We will be rich by 2021. By 2023 we will be filthy rich.  

Nobody knows what will happen

Yes we do !

Of course we do.

But what if we're already rich?

Haha.

What's the way to end up with a small fortune in the music business?

Start with a very large fortune.

hmmmm, you didn't scan back did you? I already snagged the merit so I'll just pass it forward, lol

.....
Haha.

What's the way to end up with a small fortune in the music business?

Start with a large fortune.

Sorry. Didn't occur to me that it was a meritable offense. Rectified.

[El duderino_]

2009: "The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks"

2020: "NYTimes 09/Apr/2020 With $2.3T Injection, Fed's Plan Far Exceeds 2008 Rescue."

#Bitcoin
https://twitter.com/PeterMcCormack/status/1260824114283118593?s=20

BTC

[JSRAW]

CME options growth is exploding.

interesting thanks, where did you source that from?

source

https://twitter.com/danheld/status/1261134631354523648?s=20

Data from
@skewdotcom
https://twitter.com/danheld/status/1261134728473669634?s=20

[hv_]

2009: "The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks"

2020: "NYTimes 09/Apr/2020 With $2.3T Injection, Fed's Plan Far Exceeds 2008 Rescue."

#Bitcoin
https://twitter.com/PeterMcCormack/status/1260824114283118593?s=20

BTC

good, that we have sth complementary to the FEDs

but btc just has not the capacity to serve and function as cash (after SEGVID-17) - dont ya see ?

[Ibian]

Question: How can you not hold when we all know that you'll make a boat-load (lotsa money) in the next 18 months?

Because you have to eventually. People have different needs and desires and plans and abilities and not everyone can be as awesome as you. And some are even better.

[LUCKMCFLY]

Even in Fear and the price going up, I already want to see when I go from Fear to Greed.

Citing statistics from alternative.me, the Fear & Greed Index currently reads 44, four units more than yesterday's, indicating the crypto market is still in "Fear."
Note: As per the index, a value of 0 means "Extreme Fear" while a value of 100 represents "Extreme Greed." The current index is for Bitcoin only and is measured based on volatility (25%), market momentum/volume (25%), social media (25%), surveys (15%), dominance (10%), and trends (10%).

Source: https://www.coinness.com/news/650076

[600watt]

all we need is a weekly close above $11.5k. that is another 2k above current levels and I have the feeling we will go there rather soon. if we do close above 11.5k and consolidate around above that level, we will have the whole summer and fall of 2020 to inch up (well, ok... double up  ) to the 20k area. new ath in beginning of 2021 and 2021 becoming a 2017 blueprint... we are all set. anyone who is scared, the time to abandon the rocket is getting close.

the arguments of the permabulls staying the same every circle. the arguments of the permabears staying the same every cycle. in the long run the bulls were always right. the hodlers got rich, the bears got bitter.

weirdly enough it sounds easy to hodl. but it is hard. some documentation of this endless struggle with one self (as a hodler) is displayed in this very forum. without this forum, bitcoin would not be the same. without this forum I would not be a hodler.

have a good day and may the 10k mark be taken out for good soon.

 

[Globb0]

Herd immunity is already there.

Numbers are going down.

https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

Virus is running out of warm bodies to infect.

True, warm bodies have been kept distanced, away from each other, etc and the numbers are going down. More in countries that did this well, less in countries that did not do this well. "Herd" immunity works when the herd is being careful.

Now we get to see what happens when you re-add bodies to the pool.

I have a feeling I know which way this is going to go, when you tamp down a fire to coals and then pour gasoline on the coals you get a predictable response. But hey, maybe "this time it will be different"....

Let's check back in 2 months. Place your bets folks, just remember that chip you're betting with is your life.

Some reason you made me think of blackalicious lyrics

"Perhaps because it has been burning for long, now smoldering
Now bursting into hot flames, now hastily covered over to smolder again
Until the next outbreak"

[Cryptotourist]

Found a little gem, while doing my homework:

In 2050, USD and EUR will be shit nothing, smart people will have put a % of their savings in BTC, metals and asian money will be half of the pie. Print this post.

Oh, and another one:

I am not talking about a large debasement. Very slow similar to gold. Set in the protocol, nobody can manipulate it.

FYI:
New gold is mined at about the rate of 2.5% per annum, based on existing mined stock. And this "debasement" has held steady over very long time scales.

Why not just create a hard fork of bitcoin (or with merged-mining) and a new rule to hold inflation at 2.5% once it drops to that level around block 600,000 in year 2020.

JJJJJJJJJJJ's, search, "inflation" "bitcoin":

U.S. and Bitcoin play catch-up

[Cryptotourist]

With all due respect marcus r0ach, I kinda admire your position on BTC.
Your vision and intelligence too, let alone programming skills.

If only you were not such a cunt.

[serveria.com]

Smallish correction but BTC refuses to go lower... get ready for moar up! 

[Globb0]

Throwback .... where I did got f***up with some fellow WO’s 

see the adds bellow the picture if you open it.

ZOMG>

[fillippone]

https://twitter.com/alistairmilne/status/1258268911780405249?s=20


Gents, will yo please stop buying corns. There's just not going to be enough to go round.

As I did many time this back of the envelope calculation, I made my onw interactive version for you to play with:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5191012.msg54434496#msg54434496



I will try to keep it updated.

[Globb0]

Throwback .... where I did got f***up with some fellow WO’s 

Fucking hell, that was a messy night bro.

was that where the dude puked? thought that was 4 star restaurants balcony?

I puked that night, the dude didn’t. My girl left her phone in the bar, the dude took it to his room & gave it her back the next day. The dude is very trustworthy.

I left the place hot

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Morning guys, observing $9,665, not bad. To think we were at $3,800 not that long ago. Round of applause for most of us who stayed strong during the COVID19 weak hands sell off. Every time we shrug off a panic dump it makes us better HODLERS & more deserving of the riches that surely await us in the next 18 months.

I’m really excited about the next 18 months & beyond, it’s going to be really fun.

Should be a good chance we break $10,000 this weekend, that ridiculous psychological sell point won’t last long. If we can get above $10,000 & stay above it who knows how we could end the year. A new ATH could be a possibility, certainly an AYH.

 

[Globb0]

I am not reading this topic as I used to do because It is not fun for me anymore since I don't have any horses in the race but...

Image deleted
I am not going to lie, I was jealous about the price rise... till I saw this.

You'll probably see this as FUD but hey, I am not good at holding back from saying what I think.

I can feel bitterness here...    This is happening... the transformation has started: mindrust ----> the next roach    let's see what will happen after we'll reach a new ATH....

In March coinmarketcap showed 1.7 bil increase of the market cap and now 2.5 bil. It is unusual. This may lead to a new ATH sooner than expected. I think everyone knows it but just in case I'll remind that the jumps of tether's cap in certain days do not mean necessarily someone bought such huge sums instantly or fake tethers were 'printed'. In an official response to questions about these jumps, coinmarketcap explained that tether's data has some lags. There is one article that mentions the problems with the various blockchain tether uses: https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-climbs-as-tether-gets-500m-injection-in-5-minutes
("..However, archived versions of the page show similar readings over the past few days, suggesting CoinMarketCap's data did not capture the full supply previously. USDT runs on several different blockchain networks, including Omni, ethereum, Tron and Liquid....)

Regarding mindrust. I'll try to summarize his in my view very controversial explanations (if not contradictory with the sound mind). He sold at $4Kish, because:

1. He was shocked in the middle of the night and the fear made him sell.
2. He was overinvested, which in his case meant $40K in bitcoins and $80K fiat reserves.   Many of us are 100% in Bitcoin regarding fiat savings, including myself. In his case mindrust had the luxury to defend his positons by buying more at lower prices. Or just wait for the recovery, which is only a matter of when, not if.
3. He felt betrayed because holders decided to sell and abandon ship. In reality not many holders sold everything. Rather many sold small portions of their stash at the same time in preparation for the next weeks without income.
4. He bought one whole bitcoin just before the crash and having 10 bitcoins turned into a heavy dissapointment. I also bought a greater amount than usual just before the crash. So what?
5. Tether is scam and when it dies, Bitcoin will die too. I can remember 2017 when tether almost died and logically people bought bitcoins with it, so the price increased 3x.
6. Bitcoin is too volatile, while the fiat and other assets are more stable. Yeah, sure. Crude oil, ahem. Fiat printers brrrr causing international financial crisis and inflations, ahem.
7. Covid-19 is so scary, so no point in keeping his bitcoins. Seriously? I can understand this only if someone is sick of some nasty illness requiring a lot of money for the treatment. Although, many of us would prefer another way of finding the money for that.
8. It is better to trade shitcoins because they are more volatile than Bitcoin?!?!?!?. For his bad luck shitcoins are doing really bad. As always.
9. It is better to trade USD vs EUR, since there was a lot of volatility recently. For his bad luck the exchange rate is almost frozen in the last weeks.

I think the only reason for mindrust sell was No. 1. The next reasons he made up as excuses not to buy again at $4500, as he claimed.  I'm really sorry for him because these two decisions obviously made him unhappy. And it is all about hope and happiness, which Bitcoin brings to the true holders. He may not realize it but he is becoming slowly into the next r0ach.

and almost all crashes in history are followed by a recovery. Its just a fact.