[edited out]
My thoughts are more about seeking a probably 'bottom' in technical indicators. While TA is generally not lauded in this thread, I do think technical indicators can give indications of tops/bottoms. It's all about finding
probable setups.
Largely agreeing with the analysis of your earlier post, but just want to respond to the above portion.
I believe that the initial OP of this thread was largely welcoming of TA, and even had a kind of preference that BTC price speculation should be backed up by more than non-substantiated assertions.
Of course, thread culture kind of evolved, and frequently we are not really posting TA, but even aside from the broad topicality of this thread, I would not conclude that many of us don't respect TA, but instead some of us, including yours truly, have become somewhat hostile to nonsubstantiated BTC price assertions, especially when they are prognosticating for down.
Yeah, I said it, we have a biasness for up, and I have no real problems with that on a personal level, and maybe it is largely an overreaction to the beartrolls and shills - who surely tend to take decent beatings in this thread in recent times, and not going to get any sympathy from me for anyone devolving into something that smells or a beartroll or a shill.
I believe that in recent times, I have warmed up to some kinds of TA, and I will admit that I did edit my earlier post several times to tone down some of my hostility towards your assertion that some down BTC price might be in the cards.
My actual hostility towards TA has frequently revolved around what I perceive to be too much assurity (confidence) assigned to squiggly lines drawn on a chart. Like you said, maybe a lot of the times we might be floating around in a kind of 50/50 level of confidence regarding which way that we believe that the BTC price is going to go in the short term, but some chart indications are going to tip the balance to cause greater degrees of confidence that cause short and medium terms to no longer be 50/50 and the further we move off 50/50, the more confidence that we can have to bet in the direction that favors our leanings.
So, yeah in my thinking sometimes charts could provide something approaching 70% probabilities in a certain timeline, but I personally might not agree or understand the chart, and I might not be willing to move very far off of 50/50, and maybe I understand a bit of it, but I only assign 58% to such direction, which does not motivate me to make any changes, but the one who understands and recognizes the 70% is motivated to make some "calculated bets" as you deem them, and over time, the multiple bets would likely cause the one who is calculating better to have more profits as long as s/he is not betting beyond what the TA is able to accurately tell him/her and accounting for the unknowns, too.
So, yeah, I become a bit irritated by either assignments that are too high, and surely, for clarity of my above hypothetical, I am granting that there might be some scenarios that actually show 70% probability, which I would argue is a rare fucking set of circumstances, even though there are frequently posters who are either assigning that level of probability or even higher levels of confidence to areas that are quite unknown and then they promote theirselves as a genius if they end up being correct - which ended up being way more luck than they were willing to admit.
Many times, the TA is not going to be giving high levels of confidence, but it could create some edge, as you mentioned.
By the way, even though I was kind of fighting you in my earlier post, I do recognize that even if the $3,850 from March 12 was filled with a lot of bullshit and a lot of probable manipulation, we have not had too many corrections on our way back to $10k, so when we bounce around and have difficulties breaking up, at a certain point, down just starts to seem easier.. so we surely have to accept that if whales are able to muster up some coins (and maybe even some spreading of FUD or whatever) to get the BTC price to go back down, they are not going to let such opportunities go to waste.. and just allow regular dip buyers to get 150% profits without any check... and without trying to incentivize some of them to lock in their profits, even if such "lock-in" ends up taking place at a much lower level... which means scaring those March 12 dip buyers to sell (or skim off) their BTC on the way down.
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