Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[d_eddie]

Placing a "half dip" buy above your "true dip" order is really degenerate. I can't hope to match that...  

[BobLawblaw]

on Stamp the current bottom is $37194. about what exchange your are talking, Bob?
EDIT Bottom broken.

I do all my buys/sells on Gemini.

[cygan]

Just made a degenerate buy at 37.8. The amount was not minuscule, but I'm saving some dry powder just in case she goes much further down soonish - which I doubt.

Still have my dip order in @ $37,000, but about to place another dip order @ $37,500 to see if I can't hit that bottom again.
EDIT: Yep. Just guzzled some down @ $37,500. Hit that double-bottom ! See if I stack some more @ $37,000.

[Gyrsur]

on Stamp the current bottom is $37194. about what exchange your are talking, Bob?
EDIT Bottom broken.

I do all my buys/sells on Gemini.

no issues with low liquidity there so far?

EDIT: I mean with the pockets you usually use? 

[serveria.com]

Buying the dip! Nomm nomm...  

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

A)  I hate the internet.  Very hard to communicate.

 My opinion on Trump is he like most presidents I have seen is a liar and a cheat. He simply did not give a fuck and let you and me and anyone else see his lies.

I have no uncertainty about Trump's future from Jan 21 2021 on he will not be the president of the USA.
I failed to communicate this due to my limitations of English writing on the internet.
I was trying to communicate that many on the left and the right are still uncertain about Trump and his future impact on the USA. They have decided to hedge by grabbing BTC just in case.

So I see a pullback if and when Biden is sworn in. I also see a rally later in the year.

I suspect Trump could leave the country and operate out of North Korea claiming he is the "real president" of the USA or some other move like that.  More than one country has had a losing leader do this.

All fair points, and surely there can be difficulties either communicating messages or narrowing the ways that others might interpret whatever had been said or even not said (in the case that I may have misread some of  the points that came out in your earlier posts).

Personally, I do not tend to be very inclined to go back and try to decipher what was said or not said because I do not consider those matters to be very important in our moving dialogue - unless there do happen to be some narrow points that could be highlighted to show where an unrealized confusion might have taken place.

Another thing is that if some member gets really pissed off at me for one reason or another, I do not tend to take it personally or even to get mad about it unless or until it becomes persistent and it seems to become disingenuous.. and even then sometimes on the interwebs it may be better to just let some of these matters/dynamics ride rather than getting worked up about any of them.

Sure difficult to figure out what some of the Trump fall out might be... but your ideas are not too bad, even though I think that sometimes I get a sense that you might be expressing them a bit too concretely because even though a lot of them could end up playing out just as you say, it does not take very many factors to end up sending such predictions into a different trajectory.. and maybe I am sometimes responding to tonal aspects that seem to be describing way more concreteness than seems reasonable in terms of predictions about the future, from my perspective.

[BobLawblaw]

no issues with low liquidity there so far?

None that I can see at the moment. Very robust looking to me.
EDIT: No liquidity issues for "whale" moves either, by the looks of it. Pretty healthy looking at the moment IMO.
EDIT2: Filled @ $37,000. Dip order placed @ $36,500.

[OutOfMemory]

A few thoughts about the current bitcoin price:

1. With the price at about $40K, bitcoin has to go to $8mil/btc (~160 tril market cap) to replicate the move from roughly $200 in 2015 to about 40K now. This might still happen, but it would probably take several decades and could only happen is at least half of current world wealth would be denominated in bitcoin. M. Saylor has a 15 mil target, which is basically 100% replacement-upper bound.

2. From these numbers it becomes clear that coming right now with a small investment would not mean that you would become super wealthy, or at least not anytime soon, and you need to understand this situation.

3. Having said that, buying about a quarter of btc now ($10k) makes perfect sense as it is more than 89 earthlings combined could have (on average). Invest about $11K and you are in 1% as far as btc is concerned. The $ number would obviously go up in the future. In fiat ($$), you have to have about $5mil to breach the 1% (in US) in wealth, with about $11mil being the median.

4. We are currently observing fiat wealth (hedge funds, family offices, some companies) being thrown into bitcoin, so there is an intense competition to buy. Very wealthy do not need large % gain since they already have wealth and want simply to amplify it.

4. Conclusion: maybe a bit late to make insane gains for a smaller individual investor, but investing as little as $11K in btc at this moment might EVENTUALLY bring you or your family to top 1% in wealth, albeit it would most likely take some time (in my estimation, decades).

Bitcoin is still recognized and taken serious by a minority of people, but this "audience" seems to grow, and on the other hand fresh supply is capped every 4 years, and you can see the decline in free coins on exchange statistics and global analytics (glassnode). Based on this, bitcoin doesn't even need that much fiat inflow from traditional SOV, it just needs to basically run out of current market supply, while buying interest goes up. We saw 2017, how fast demand can grow. Consider that this demands meets rareness of available coins, when all the weak hands already sold for profit and only freshly mined coins could be available for buyers.
How would that fit into your long term picture?

EDIT: Of course, exchanges will be among the most desperate buyers in the "(almost) no liquidity" phase(s).

[d_eddie]

no issues with low liquidity there so far?

None that I can see at the moment. Very robust looking to me.
EDIT: No liquidity issues for "whale" moves either, by the looks of it. Pretty healthy looking at the moment IMO.

I think Gyrsur was referring to your degenerate pocket money.

[UnDerDoG81]

I see patterns from the past here once again. Dumpsters waiting 48 hrs, if sideways, they dump all they have... They might wait another 48 hrs now and then try it again... After they find the bottom of today.

[BobLawblaw]

I think Gyrsur was referring to your degenerate pocket money.

Oh, I'm just moving money as I need it, sorta thing. I'll probably stop once I've stacked another full BTC.
EDIT: Filled @ $36,500. Order placed @ $36,000
EDIT2: Jesus. Filled @ $36,000. Next dip order @ $35,000
EDIT3: LULZ. Filled @ $35,000. Targeting $34,000 next order.
EDIT4: Made another order @ $34,500. Looks to be recovering. Enough degeneracy for a bit. Going back downstairs to hang out with Rick and play some video games. I have to take a shower first I think. Feeling filthy stacking all that dip.

[milkshock100]

Wow this is pretty relentless

[d_eddie]

A few thoughts about the current bitcoin price:

1. With the price at about $40K, bitcoin has to go to $8mil/btc (~160 tril market cap) to replicate the move from roughly $200 in 2015 to about 40K now. This might still happen, but it would probably take several decades and could only happen is at least half of current world wealth would be denominated in bitcoin. M. Saylor has a 15 mil target, which is basically 100% replacement-upper bound.

2. From these numbers it becomes clear that coming right now with a small investment would not mean that you would become super wealthy, or at least not anytime soon, and you need to understand this situation.

3. Having said that, buying about a quarter of btc now ($10k) makes perfect sense as it is more than 89 earthlings combined could have (on average). Invest about $11K and you are in 1% as far as btc is concerned. The $ number would obviously go up in the future. In fiat ($$), you have to have about $5mil to breach the 1% (in US) in wealth, with about $11mil being the median.

4. We are currently observing fiat wealth (hedge funds, family offices, some companies) being thrown into bitcoin, so there is an intense competition to buy. Very wealthy do not need large % gain since they already have wealth and want simply to amplify it.

4. Conclusion: maybe a bit late to make insane gains for a smaller individual investor, but investing as little as $11K in btc at this moment might EVENTUALLY bring you or your family to top 1% in wealth, albeit it would most likely take some time (in my estimation, decades).

Bitcoin is still recognized and taken serious by a minority of people, but this "audience" seems to grow, and on the other hand fresh supply is capped every 4 years, and you can see the decline in free coins on exchange statistics and global analytics (glassnode). Based on this, bitcoin doesn't even need that much fiat inflow from traditional SOV, it just needs to basically run out of current market supply, while buying interest goes up. We saw 2017, how fast demand can grow. Consider that this demands meets rareness of available coins, when all the weak hands already sold for profit and only freshly mined coins could be available for buyers.
How would that fit into your long term picture?

Indeed, all the talk about market cap should be taken with a tablespoon of salt. If institutional FOMO meets choked supply, the marginal price for the next bitcoin to be bought/sold can rocket up to impossible highs, but that still doesn't mean half of the planet's wealth (or any other preposterous fraction) needs to be denominated in btc.

That marginal price can plummet down easily if too many hodlers look for a way out in sync.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Wow this is pretty relentless

Dump for 🐜

[OutOfMemory]

I'm new to Fibs, but from what i see in them right now is: bounce now, or later at $34.8k.
Gyrsur?

[Gyrsur]

I'm new to Fibs, but from what i see in them right now is: bounce now, or later at $34.8k.
Gyrsur?

my degenerated TA say $36550 is critical cause 38.2% retracement level.

[serveria.com]

I'm new to Fibs, but from what i see in them right now is: bounce now, or later at $34.8k.
Gyrsur?

my degenerated TA say $36550 is critical cause 38.2% retracement level.

Almost there... 

[OutOfMemory]

I'm new to Fibs, but from what i see in them right now is: bounce now, or later at $34.8k.
Gyrsur?

my degenerated TA say $36550 is critical cause 38.2% retracement level.

Thanks. Matches mine down to $10 accuracy.

EDIT: That didn't age well 

[Phil_S]

Hopefully it stops at 35000 or so...

[UnDerDoG81]

Ok the dump we were all waiting for... Sub 30k incoming?