Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Sure.. in theory, taking out house money can be good in theory, especially if you are afraid about bitcoin's future performance or if you are afraid for your initial investment.. but jeez.. you can take out your initial investment way too damned soon and then screw ur lil selfie out of a whole hell of a lot of profits because you wanted to feel MOAR comfie.  I think that currently, my initial investment is about 1.5% of the value of my BTC.. something like that.  So the BTC price would have to go down to 98.5% to around $700 for my investment to be equal to the size of the value of BTC... Why even fucking bother pulling out the value of the investment just to feel comfie.. hardly makes sense to me, especially if you invested in such a way that you were NOT investing more than you can afford to lose.. but whatever, if that's what makes peeps more comfie, then go ahead.. and surely it makes more sense when you are up 60x or whatever because taking out the initial investment does not draw down the principle nor the whole investment very much, but it makes a whole hell of a lot less sense if you might only be 2x or 3x in profits or something like 10% to 30% or so in profits which would have been the paltry range of mindrust's profit status around $4,500, which seems to have been the point that you were making, xhomerx10... so you and I, xhomerx10, are making the same point in different words.. wall of text from me, and normal talk from ur lil selfie.  

This is true enough but if Bitcoin drops more than the gut-wrenching rollercoaster that we're used to, it's not going to be 98.5%, it's going to go to 0 because some protocol breaking bug or vulnerability will be found. I don't think it's likely but if it did, it's comforting to know I got something out of it already.

Well, sure.  We always have to be prepared for the possibility of BTC going to zero, and I have never NOT accounted for that including that.... and if something like a "going to zero" scenario would play out, it may well happen so fast that NOT much if any value could be withdrawn before it ended up going to zero.

Again, like you already mentioned the probability remains pretty damned low for the going to zero possibility, and seems even lower now than it did when I started investing in BTC in late 2013.. but of course, it remains a non-zero possibility.

So, sure, there could be some value in taking a bit "extra" out of BTC at some point in order to account for "what if the going to zero actually happens," event.  I might have to reflect on this a bit more - under the current BTC price location - to consider if I have adequately prepared for this, both psychologically and financially.  I believe that I had prepared for such scenario earlier, in the sense that I had considered that I had no real problem, either psychologically or financially if BTC were to go to zero.. but NOW, the BTC price is like 5x higher than my latest times in really seriously thinking about the matter.

[Richy_T]

So, sure, there could be some value in taking a bit "extra" out of BTC at some point in order to account for "what if the going to zero actually happens," event.  I might have to reflect on this a bit more - under the current BTC price location - to consider if I have adequately prepared for this, both psychologically and financially.  I believe that I had prepared for such scenario earlier, in the sense that I had considered that I had no real problem, either psychologically or financially if BTC were to go to zero.. but NOW, the BTC price is like 5x higher than my latest times in really seriously thinking about the matter.

Indeed. My point is not so much that there is a "right" way to do things, more that in the face of a future we can't know, there may be several options that are not really wrong. Though there are surely more than a few that are (as Mr Antonopoulos well demonstrated).

[600watt]

check out the gem that fronti found:

Beim Stöberm im Thread

Damals, 2013:

(von https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=26136.msg1639507#msg1639507)

Heute:

same same but different!

incredible!

 

edit: lol, did you see "mtgox trading engine lag" ? muahah haha 34 sec... imagine the fuckery...

edit2: if merit: pls to fronti, not me

[JayJuanGee]

... Random rant and insults...

j

So fuck off and don't read my post.

Whine about non-existent BTC dumps (or shill altcoins) and get the JJG Slap.

This is the WO way  

Yeah... I know after 12h it's easy to say, there was nothing... After rebounce and the info that there was a long squeeze it's easy to rant and insult like a 10 year aggro kid. Clap clap clap... How awesome. Maybe he can also tell me the lottery numbers from last week.

As I recall, I was largely criticizing the ascribed purported certainties to your various nonsense.  I was not making my own predictions.  I don't tend to make my own predictions much beyond 50/50 (give or take 5%), but I do like to criticize folks who seem to want to ascribe too much certainties to various proclamations that they are making.. especially when they make them ongoingly, goofily and emotionally as you seem to continue to want to do..

Let him have some fun bro.

Why?  You are making no sense philip. 

Mean while we are touching new ATH. 50k is soooooo close.

Sure.. nothing wrong with that.

My gut tells me that 50 will be breached and going to 60k will be really rapid.

Hm..? you are not the ONLY one who has made such assertions.

As for taking some off the table I was able to do it I can now hodl the btc.

Yes.. we know that miners have to take BTC off the table on a more regular basis than non-miners who likely devise differing systems in terms of both how much and how frequently to take profits off the table.  There is going to be a lot of variation here.. of course, and maybe some folks will end up waiting too long, so it is difficult to attempt to apply any one set of suggestions to anyone even though various systems can be developed and suggested and WO members can figure out their own system while considering what others do at the same time.

So, sure, there could be some value in taking a bit "extra" out of BTC at some point in order to account for "what if the going to zero actually happens," event.  I might have to reflect on this a bit more - under the current BTC price location - to consider if I have adequately prepared for this, both psychologically and financially.  I believe that I had prepared for such scenario earlier, in the sense that I had considered that I had no real problem, either psychologically or financially if BTC were to go to zero.. but NOW, the BTC price is like 5x higher than my latest times in really seriously thinking about the matter.

Indeed. My point is not so much that there is a "right" way to do things, more that in the face of a future we can't know, there may be several options that are not really wrong. Though there are surely more than a few that are (as Mr Antonopoulos well demonstrated).

Through my time in bitcoin, I had already largely accounted for BTC going to zero, which I had always considered to be fairly low probabilities, and surely it would be one of the worst scenarios, but I have systems in place that surely prepare me for major drops that fall short of "going to zero." 

Only thing is that your post reminded me that I have not reconsidered whether there might be some beneficial ways to further account for this "going to zero" scenario, one of the ones that I have not completely accounted for.. .. and sure, I am going to reconsider the matter, and likely I am not going to do anything rash, but there are probably some ways that I could make some minor changes in my current situation that will hardly at all affect me, but thereafter buttress me a bit more for the seemingly very unlikely going to zero scenario.. And many people recall that I have always suggested that prudent folks should not be deviating too much from the amount of preparation that they make for scenarios in terms of the likelihood that they will happen, so for sure I consider going to zero scenarios to be much smaller than 1% (surely you, Richy_T might well assign higher values to such going to zero scenarios), but anyhow, whatever tweak that I make is going to likely be in a smaller than 1% tweak because of the way that I perceive the scenario and I am also not necessarily in a rush to accomplish it, but your post still has inspired me to consider and to devise a plan to deal with this area that has been somewhat lacking in my "total" btc preparedness historically, because my total preparedness previously had considered merely just riding the whole thing down to zero if that is where it is going to go, but since I am feeling so excessively over-allocated in bitcoin, there are likely ways that are going to hardly affect me at all in terms of preparing for zero.

Regarding the Antonopoulous example, I am not sure about your reference.  Are you talking about him having had failed and refused to save bitcoin because he was spending it all the time, or are you talking about some other example, because the failure and refusal to save bitcoin seems to be an issue that is not related, unless you want to describe the connection that you are suggesting to exist.

[Biodom]

Bitcoin behaves like it is stuck in a rut...unless you step back and look at the weeklies, which are super bullish.
What we observe, together with coins flying off of exchanges, is huge funds/companies doing equally large accumulation while trying not to affect the price much, imho.
Someone pointed to a single wallet making a $5 bil transaction recently.
The are not too many entities which could have pulled it off.

[JayJuanGee]

Bitcoin behaves like it is stuck in a rut...unless you step back and look at the weeklies, which are super bullish.
What we observe, together with coins flying off of exchanges, is huge funds/companies doing equally large accumulation while trying not to affect the price much, imho.
Someone pointed to a single wallet making a $5 bil transaction recently.
The are not too many entities which could have pulled it off.

New frame work for being at the top of a range:  "stuck in a rut"  I suppose it is possible to consider the BTC price dynamics matter like that.. especially if you are "hoping" for DOWNity.

 

We are "stuck in a rut", guys (and gal)!!!!!!!! 

You heard it here, first (proper credit (blame) to Biodom, of course)!!!!!

[nanobtc]

Was anyone here on the mtgox IRC channel, long ago? I'd have to dig to even recall it's name accurately. It had a bot that you could query for orders, info, etc.

I always logged everything on IRC locally, I probably still have lots of it. I have lots of IRC logs.

EDIT: Ah, here's some old info.  https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/MtGox/IRC_mtgox

[Richy_T]

Regarding the Antonopoulous example, I am not sure about your reference.  Are you talking about him having had failed and refused to save bitcoin because he was spending it all the time, or are you talking about some other example, because the failure and refusal to save bitcoin seems to be an issue that is not related, unless you want to describe the connection that you are suggesting to exist.

That is indeed the example. Not directly relevant but included only as an example of a Bitcoin strategy that is quite clearly wrong.

surely you, Richy_T might well assign higher values to such going to zero scenarios

You would be surprised. I think it highly unlikely. The fork was a special situation where if BCH had attained dominance, I would have considered it the continuation of Bitcoin and thus all would have been well but even if that were the case, I don't think BTC would have gone to zero, certainly not in a hurry and certainly not too quickly for anyone paying attention to make an exit (though not a big issue due to the nature of the fork). Though that's pretty much water under the bridge for now, I think.

The real risk would be a technological threat to the protocol. I consider that highly unlikely. Although there have been some suggestions that the algorithms used may have some deliberate weaknesses, I don't put a huge amount of stock in them. What I do try to bear in mind is that there is always the possibility that I am wrong about this or that. If it's possible to protect against being wrong with little cost, it seems worthwhile to do so. Overconfidence is a trap for the unwary. Doors and corners (for those familiar with The Expanse).

[Richy_T]

Bitcoin behaves like it is stuck in a rut

Sometimes the old memes are the best.

[dieselmeister]

Good Morning BTCLand... Saw a nice pump this night (I better don't write massive here, because that triggers some people here.) New ATH* in Euro and Dollar and we are back on track to 50k. On stamp  are  currently round about 300 160 corns between us and 50k. Because of lag of fiat I could bought any Dip. 15 days until the next invoices are paid by customers, but the next month is tax month in Germany - every 3 month for companies you have to pay upfront your taxes. So sadly corn in march for me.


*I know nobody cares about a new ATH as long it is under 50k.

But I looked and I bought only in Feburary 39 times the dip I know, you can not have enough coins, but taxes must be paid!

[Wekkel]

If there's anything to this notion to quadruple tops/quadruple bottoms, I suppose we will know soon.

Yes, there is and it’s called humans.

I’ve been smacked on the head by Bitcoin so many times that I have learned to ignore the most obvious TA signals. Honey Badger simply doesn’t care.

Yes, I can be bearish as well. No, not selling a Bitcoin for such prediction. Got hurt too many times.

[Cryptotourist]

I really need the lockdownz to stop:

Where are you located? Lots of places lockdown isn't much of an issue at the moment. I'd be planning a long vacation in Florida if it was stressing me out. Fortunately, it's not too bad here (though we're in the middle of an ice storm right now).

I live in a place where people like to take their holidays.
This means that we have to be extra good boys n girls now, so it's safe for you to come back again later.
Extra safe = extra locked down - brought to you by - our extra cuck PM.

And OK, with bars and restaurants still closed, I can handle it.
But for the love of gawd, closing down brothels and limiting escort services - is a step too far, and the people responsible should burn in hell for it.

[aesma]

Fiat assets seem more risky that fiat, the stock market in particular.

... you're confused, "fiat assets" are those monetary debt notes issued by central banks and backed up governmental fiat decree, e.g. US Fed. Res. debt promissory notes, Euros, Yen, Pounds "sterling", Yuan, AUD, NZD and on and on ... actually it's questionable whether they are actually assets but rather classed as  liabilities since they are issued as debts against society

... fiat-denominated assets like stocks, bonds, commodities, property can be anything you want to value in fiat (a risky idea now)

... you can denominate any asset in any other asset, just because stocks are now somehow linked to the central bank fiats, inside their prison-casino financial pyramid schemes, does not mean those asset are forever beholden to fiat ... this is the mind-prison part of the fiat deception

... eventually many assets will be denominated in BTC, MegaWatts for BTC, oil for BTC, Gold for BTC, houses for BTC, Teslas for BTC (wait already have it), Booty for BTC, food for BTC, you get the picture.


... shake your head out of the fiat mind-prison

Eventually maybe but we're not there yet. People have a 500000$ house not a 10BTC one. And having sold BTC to buy it would not necessarily have been a good move either. But you're right, I was talking about the stock market (bonds, to some extant too), so assets denominated in fiat. If you own a good company and bought before the bubble it's still OK to own some mind you, if you can take the eventual bursting of the bubble, after all there is still value there. If you hold Tesla bought at current prices, though...

[Cryptotourist]

https://twitter.com/100trillionusd/status/1361313873140269063?s=21

That's my average predicted price as well: ($80k+$240k)/2=$160k

Maths n science!

[serveria.com]

{...snip...}
I hope there is one last push over $50k. But I would not be surprised if we reached the top for this cycle.

Elwar, bro, what are you smoking?

We’re still early in this bull cycle, I’d estimate that the price will treble from here.

I certainly hope so. I did the sale years ago so as they say...don't let emotions play a role in your trades. It's certainly not a significant amount, but so many of the charts put us exactly where we are today years ago ($50-$60k range).

Which is awesome because the charts looking into the next 4 years are pretty amazing.

But we all know the other signs that we need to keep in mind...how many old friends that you haven't talked to in years are contacting you asking about some random shitcoin? How many people talking about $100k-$200k prices "soon".

I do believe that in the next few years we will never need to sell again. We'll just be using our bitcoin.

This is very interesting. Someone (prolly El Dude?) posted here some news about some prominent hodler and bitcoin believer selling at $48-49k. What is happening now? Old boys losing faith? Of course we risk a lot. I haven't sold anything since 2011. In case the price goes down now, I am screwed: I'm sentenced to another 4 years (at least) without Lambos, hookers & blow.   Still I don't consider selling. Why? The cycle is not yet over. We barely touched all the previous blowoff tops and went down immediately which is not something we can witness at $50k mark. So we're probably waiting for a violent multi $10k pump followed by immediate heavy dump? I dunno but I have a gut feeling we (royal we of course) shouldn't sell now.      

[friends1980]

Elon & Saylor selling under 50K (taking nice profit) to make sure all their buddies have the time to jump aboard?

[Wilhelm]

I’ve been in the game for long enough that I will take some profits. This is to be well off no matter what Bitcoin does. Majority will remain in the HODL for the next cycle...

[marcus_of_augustus]

I'm not really sure if "taking profits" in fiat can really be considered correct phraseology any longer.
I don't think you guys are getting just how far gone the current fiat banking systems are. It's like saying taking profits in Zimbabwe dollars, or taking profits in Venezuelan bolivars, argentine pesos ... at some point it's nonsensical to talk about taking profits if you're buying a higher risk devaluing asset

New poll!

Old Poll:

[El duderino_]

I’ve been in the game for long enough that I will take some profits. This is to be well off no matter what Bitcoin does. Majority will remain in the HODL for the next cycle...

I think its the same like with most price appreciations....

A lot of bitcoiners will sell and miss out on the bigger picture by buying in at 10-20-30k this cycle and sell at 40-50-55-60k

its always been like this and along with all those sellers are strong hands which group increases as well and in every cycle there are new strong hands who join us

I don't say that for example if you invested that of the 100% invested there isn't room for selling, cause there is, just be very rational and don't sell to much. The FIAT ain't worth it and the old BTC which sold will not be cheap anymore.

Also people who have BTC income, its normal to HODL a partial and sell some to maintain life of-course...

[El duderino_]

I'm not really sure if "taking profits" in fiat can really be considered correct phraseology any longer.
I don't think you guys are getting just how far gone the current fiat banking systems are. It's like saying taking profits in Zimbabwe dollars, or taking profits in Venezuelan bolivars, argentine pesos ... at some point it's nonsensical to talk about taking profits if you're buying a higher risk devaluing asset

New poll!

Old Poll:

not completely true, taking some FIAT profits can if the purpose to re invest in something is the reason.

Like some who are fully exposed to BTC and just want some out as of reward and buy some land or housing or old timer car or watch or whatever what makes you happy ... Thats taking profit as well, or some holiday expenses, we have to life live as well before it's too late.

Just some wealth out to start doing different things isn't the worse imho.

It also isn't the meaning of sitting on a stack of corn until its time to crawl in the coffin if you know what I mean.