It was a hypothesis. A theory has a lot of work put in. I just pulled a chart out of my ass and asked if the past data similiarity looked spooky.
Well that question was already answered. In essence, the data that you had shown did not look spooky nor similar (based on other underlying concepts in bitcoinlandia.. including the various currently credible BTC prediction models that should have allowed you to reasonably conclude that we not be in 2018 at this here time), but you argued about it anyhow...hahahaha
I'm not sure of the specific beairsh theory, but I don't see it as being laughable to be objective and consider "shit, maybe we are all wrong".
You may have been misunderstanding the kind of disagreement that I was having with goldkingcoiner, because initially, when he posted his chart with down arrows and he proclaimed that he thought that we might be in 2018 - I thought that perhaps he had just made a mistake or perhaps a joke.
I've noticed the volatility of BTC used to be way scarier than this in the past. However I am seeing some eerily similiar patterns from 2018. Market Cap drop to $1T soon?
So, initially, I was just seeking clarification including my assertion that it's not too likely that we are in 2018... . but instead of explaining himself, goldkingcoiner went into combative mode including wiffle waffling all over the place and even changing his position... and even waffling more when the BTC price went against his nonsense.
For sure, I consider myself to have pretty low levels of conviction for a lot of the shorter-term price movement ideas, and frequently I meander in a kind of 50/50 territory with many of my deviations being less than 5% on one side or another - and sure most of the time I am either erroring on the side of bullish or even not really talking too much about my sense that we might be going down (although I am not really holding back anyhow because most of the times I do lean towards UPpity - even if it seems that there are a lot of short term DOWNity pressures).
So frequently, I am criticizing others who are coming out with high levels of certainty, and I have even criticized you on that basis a few times - which surely is one of the risks that can come about when you plot price predictions on charts because they might start to imply higher levels of confidence than what you had even originally intended to communicate.
So, you are very rarely going to find me with short term predictions that go much above 55%, although recently I believe that I have had some higher levels of confidence.. so let's take the example of the BTC price range that we were recently in, largely between about $30k and $42k. So my own confidence levels about whether the so far bottom of $28,600 was "in" would fluctuate regarding where we were at in that particular price range, and surely, I had a theory that if BTC prices sufficiently bounced to the upside out of that range, then my confidence levels would go up regarding the bottom of $28,600 being "in."
By the way, I hardly give any shits about whether I am correct or not, even though surely I prefer UP rather than DOWN, but in the end, I appreciate that there are powerful forces out there that have the capabilities to manipulate BTC prices towards the DOWNity for many years if they were able to garner such support within their organizations to continue such attacks.. so anyhow, I am not wedded to some stupid ass BTC price predictions about the future having high levels of having to play out, even if they have a lot of convincing underlying explanations for their validity - referring to stock to flow, 4 year fractal and exponential s-curve adoption based on metcalfe principles and networking effects as the three categories of the currently most convincing BTC price prediction frameworks that need to be taken into account when attempting to even fuck around with BTC price predictions.. does not even mean that you need to believe in the models, but you (not referring to any specific you) better fucking take them into account when you are poo pooing them.
I was 95% sure the bull-run would continue, which very much appears to be the case now fortunately. I'd still put a 1-2% chance of being wrong however, as nothing to is a guarantee in life. It'd be naive to consider the statistical or data science models, whether that be log growth or stock to flow, to be right 100% of the time. That's how you can get completely rekt long-term.
Again.. you seem to be assigning way higher levels of confidence than me, and those are the kinds of confidence levels that I will usually criticize the fuck out of, whether to the UPside or the DOWNside, even though I do let a lot of what I perceive to be the overly bullishness towards the UPside slide more frequently than I would for the same overly confident DOWNside assertions (and I believe I have good reasons to do that.. because no matter what, we have the underlying UPside price pressure dynamics, especially the exponential s-curve adoption aspect, whether peeps want to believe or acknowledge or not.
Call me not a "true believer" or otherwise, but I just stick with the probabilities rather than the prophecies, as they appear more reliable to me.
Your confidence numbers seem to be way higher than mine... but maybe it also could be depending upon the question that might be presented..sometimes if we are talking time and how much movement, we are going to get very different confidence levels depending on how far we might be moving from our current position - whether referring to time or to quantity of movement.
Fortunately as I trade time rather than price these days, the probability of the 12th year of Bitcoin being different from the other 11 had a simplistic 8.3% chance to me (1/12).
Seems like an error to me to be considering the matter like that. Bitcoin is not a mature asset, and there seem to be a considerably great need to account for exponential s-curve adoption and also consider how networking effects are playing out..which includes considering Lindy effects.. and also includes considering metcalfe principles, too.
Seems to me that if you even try to treat subsequent years in similar ways to earlier years, then you are lacking in some of your appreciating for some of the real world underlying dynamics of bitcoin including that bitcoin is no run of the mill asset class, either. It involves the addition of a new asset class that is paradigm shifting (meaning that we never ever ever had such an asset class in the past), and bitcoin has inspired all kinds of imitators and snake oil salesmen and a lot of noise and misleading aspects around it, but the fact that bitcoin is NOT broken in spite of ongoing attacks against it (sure frequently subtle), creates a kind of unpredictable aspect in terms of the "gradually and then suddenly" component to it, as well... so in that sense, all years cannot be treated the same, even if you are trying to be objective about it, you are missing the point by trying to apply a mathematical model that is failing/refusing to account for on the ground realities.
Add in something else like stock to flow and the macro bullish uptrend of the Weekly/Monthly chart, I could easily drop this % in half to <5%. But I still had my objective reservations as a natural skeptic. I also almost
took a short as a hedge given the descending triangle pattern, while hodling the rest of my stash, but in the end after further analysis I realised the times when these patterns don't break bearish is often during the 1-year up trends. So the idea of it having a 80-90% chance of breaking down with another 50% drop became completely invalidated for me. It did
remind me of 2019 however, even if the pattern not so clean (also looked like a broadening wedge), so I considered it more of a bear trap - which it turned out to be.
Fair enough that hedging sometimes can be helpful...and also making comparisons can be helpful too, if you are able to make reasonable comparisons rather than finding a pattern that looks the same but might still fail to account for some broader underlying principles in terms of how that previous pattern might have gotten there in the first place.
Sure, sometimes I may well talk a decently big game about patterns and underlying principles, but I hardly ever change my largely blind system of buying on the way down and selling on the way up, including allowing the BTC price to come to me, and also with the passage of time, both my spreads and my increments have gotten much BIGGER - even though this latest correction from $64,895 to $28,600 and the bouncing around within such correction had caused my increments to largely shrink back to their $1k intervals - but I kept my spreads the same (at around $6k) even though I had been somewhat tempted to shrink those too.. because as you can likely appreciate a spread of $6k in the $30k territories ends up being 2x as BIG (in terms of percentage) as it is in the $60k territories, but I just allowed the whole spread matter to stay in place as a kind of convenient excuse that just allows my longer term goals to become more and more realized in terms of permitting (or causing) the spreads to get BIGGER and MOAR BIGGER with the passage of time, including BTC price increases and even accounting for percentages, too - even though many of us should be able to appreciate that even if we have perceptions of bitcoin having a lot of ongoing and inevitable volatility for many years to come, such volatility is still likely (and perceptibly) reducing with the passage of time, too..even though BIGGER players are coming into bitcoin and attempting to play with BIGGER numbers and hopefully getting reckt MOAR worser, too. hopefully.
Overall I was more convinced that with the 50+% correction, price therefore had more of a chance to go higher than initial expectations of $100-150K, as it looked more similar to 2012 than 2018 for sure, or a completely different uber bullish longer term trend we have never seen before (something WIlly Woo recently touched upon, the "super cycle" possibility). That and
looking at analysis from over a year ago, this really helped rationalize the situation for me. For sure price got over-extended too far too fast, but ultimately we remained on track regardless.
I understand that Willy Woo is not much of a fan of Stock to flow, but surely Willy does have a lot of great analysis, too.
Naturally any hedge wouldn't have been for $ gains, it would of simply been an attempt to increase BTC holdings, with ultimately still the projection of Bitcoin price making new ATH high this year anyway. So I never actually considered the bear market had come, this seemed high unlikely to me, but I didn't rule this out or the idea of another fake-out.
Sure, there were a lot of seemingly premature proclamations that we had entered into a bear market, and part of the rationale was having a greater than 30% price correction, and in early 2021, there was a shit-ton of bullshit assertions that greater than 30% price corrections were no longer possible or some nonsense like that, and we even got quite a bit of that baloney in this thread, and so as soon as BTC corrected more than 30% many folks started either predicting doom and gloom or accepting the various doom and gloom theories including quite a few smart peeps with decent analysis, too.
So you can imagine that if 30% was the threshold of entering into a bear market, then more than 50% correction put nails in the coffin to "unambiguously" confirm the three year or whatever bear market bullshit propaganda.. and of course, we may well know that there were a decent number of folks who wanted to perpetuate such nonsense in order to get some shakening of the coins from folks who otherwise were NOT too likely to be easily shaken from their coins... but surely a lot of folks did get shaken.. those gullible fucks.
By the way, I am not even asserting that we might not be in a bear market, even though to me the odds seem against it. I am not even saying that the top of $64,895 might not be in, even though to me the odds seem against it. We cannot really know for sure if we are in a bear market or a bull market until after the fact, and surely I cannot even see that the stock to flow or the 4 year fractal models have been broken, so you are not going to so easily cause me to concede that we are enterring into a bear market, even though there was some time that the odds were not looking good for staying in a bull market - especially when we were getting into the low $30ks and staying there a long time (including the temporary dips into the upper $20ks).. but yeah, it is not over until it is over.. even though I probably had less than 50% confidence that
the $28,600 bottom would hold when we were in the sub $31ks, but when the BTC price got back into the mid $30ks my confidence went back into the 51%-52% territories, and then when it went into the upper $30ks my confidence bounced around 55% and when BTC prices got over $46k, my confidence went from about 56.5% to about 62.5%, and currently my confidence is around 63.5%.. hahahahahaha.. which is pretty fucking high for me, so I might have to take a chill pill and bring down my expectations a wee bit more.
Actually, it seems better for me to attempt to gravitate back towards 50/50 ideas in regards to short term BTC price directions - but again, surely my level of confidence is going to depend on the questions that are being asked in terms of if the $28,600 bottom is in or what are the chances that we break above $53k or what might be the other resistance points, because in some sense, if the BTC rice is allowed to get avove a certain threshold, such as $53k or something else, then it is going to be a whole hell of a lot more difficult for beartwats to actually keep the BTC price from making new ATHs.. and in that regard, you are probably of a similar mind as me in terms of the difficulties to stop the momentum once the BTC price gets above certain price points, but even then we might get into upper 60% territories in my mind, but you might start assigning way higher odds such as in the upper 90%s which I would consider to be gambling (or pie in the sky) rather than being realistic (with yourself).
No doubt the sort of fake-out that institutions so desperately craved and
could have manipulated in order to position themselves properly, knowing many of them f**cked up. Instead of seems they gave up and just decided to short gold instead
Cannot really argue with you about these points, even though there are institutions that are all over the place on these questions, too. Some institutions are more enlightened and aggressive regarding their BTC accumulation/holdings (and probably Michael Saylor has helped some of them to learn and see a model), and there are still plenty of institutions that are quite a bit more distracted, including getting distracted into shitcoins and even giving more weight to regulatory concerns than those concerns likely deserve - even though time will tell on those matters, too.. and some will be somewhat in bitcoin (including even a measly 1%) and some will be still sitting on the sidelines waiting for better investment vehicles or waiting for even wider practices of investing into bitcoin (rather than considering Saylor to be a looney.... which even some of us longer term bitcoiners consider Saylor to be a bit looney, too.. hahahahahaha.. even though Saylor is
not likely wrong, he is just way more leveraged than the vast majority of normies should be... but of course, neither he nor his company is a normie in terms of cashflows and abilities to generate and employ debt.. ).
Poll
