2017 sounds like a perfect time to get into maintenance if averaging in from 2014, as this also means you would also have had 3 years experience in the market in order to do so successfully I imagine.
I didn't trim at all during 2018-2020. Just bought dips and DCA'd leading into the halving
Of course part of my point was not exactly where the BTC market was, but where I was in terms of starting out with already having had accumulated an investment portfolio over 25 years prior to getting into BTC.. so that affected me and my approach.. but then couple those facts with where the market was at and where it appeared to be going affected decisions about how to proceed and at what point to stop or to change strategies or to consider having enough allocated... but still keep buying even though I felt that I had enough.
I did find that once I felt that I had enough, I was less inclined to FOMO.. but I was NOT completely immuned from FOMOing. It takes a while to get to those positions, and having more than 25 years of investing already.. did help.. and so some newbies try to compare themselves to that, and sure they might not need 25 years to ge there, but they might not be able to get there in less than 10 years, even if they think that they are there. they are not.. but they might not realize until later that they were not sufficiently stacked and staked for UPpity.. .. so there can be questions regarding how much is being worked with and how it is allocated and whether it should be reallocated based on individual circumstances that justify differing answers dependent on the person and his/her circumstances.
This general "longer term" wealth preservation I can understand, especially if you've already spent decades building that portfolio. It must be a completely different perspective.
Perhaps there are overall differences in willingness to take risk? I doubt that I was always a FUD dud when it had come to taking risk, but I had noticed that building wealth does seem to have a pretty strong compounding effect, so maybe there becomes less need to take risks in order to feel that the value of the portfolio is growing on an ongoing basis.. and the numbers might start to seem way BIGGER than expected, so in that regard, it seems no desire to take extra risk when the numbers are already BIG.
I suppose that in late 2013, when I got into bitcoin, I had already considered that aspect of my portfolio to contain a lot of risk in it, so there could be questions from me about how to less then the risk within aspects of my portfolio that was already relatively risky.. and then as the value of my bitcoin got larger and kind of began to dwarf the other aspects of my portfolio, I considered that I was taking additional risk by letting my sinner (bitcoin in this case) ride rather than reallocating and spreading my allocation to other aspects of my portfolio.. So I am having trouble considering that I am even less risky than others because I have ended up allowing a lot of value to stay within bitcoin - even though I refuse to take some of the additional risks of trading much of any within those holdings - even though I surely have a lot of excess wealth and value in those holdings, but I find no reason to put it at more risk than it is already in by just being relatively highly allocated in bitcoin.
I guess for me shit can go to zero, as within another 4 years I feel I can achieve the same 10x returns, even if it's not how it works
Seems a weird way of thinking about matters, as if you can get it back at any time. I know a lot of people who end up poor thinking like that.. but they are poor when they are older.. which kind of sucks... seems to me.
Maybe there are baller examples too.. but seems that most of the rich people have conservative approaches.. at least those rich folks who are not merely transitorily rich.
I suppose that there may well be examples on both sides.
I also imagine I wouldn't achieve this preservation within 10 years either. I notice my Dad is relatively conservative as an investor these days, he played the dotcom bubble with high risk (+ high stress) from the 1990s, so he has the 25+ years behind him. The irony (non-irony?) being it's not because he lost a lot of what he made, but after a couple of decades decided to preserve what he had. I guess this comes from successful investing in the long-term more than much else.
That said, his general advise these days is "nobody ever went broke selling at a profit" and "dead cat bounce". I'm not convinced he's very versed in the markets anymore, but is a coiner non the less and is impressed by the returns that reminds him of his younger days. That said, he only has his toes dipped in the water so to speak, and from heavily invested. Ultimately, he doesn't need to invest heavily anymore being the more relevant factor
Your dad does not sound like me in terms of even close to the percentage that I hold in bitcoin as compared to my traditional investments - and sure I started out with only about 13.5% allocated in bitcoin by the end of 2015.. but surely that rose to about 90% in late 2017 and then dropped down to about 45% in late 2018 and then came back up to about 90% in current times, and sure a lot of that was just me letting the bitcoin portion of my portfolio ride, but my other traditional assets could sustain me too.. so the bitcoin portion is also kind of like excess wealth.. and sure I am not complaining about it, but I have also NOT been spending too much of it, so far... even though I have become quite a bit more flippant about not being conservative in my spending and tending to get the better quality of items.. but still the higher levels of spending do not seem to be enough.. and there are some inabilities to spend fast enough..... even with some pretty decent BIG ticket purchase items too.. . but still does not make me want to gamble it to either make more and I don't feel any need to take any high amounts of value out of bitcoin, either... except I will spend as I go along, and if there might be some things that are higher cost that I want to buy that come to my attention, then maybe I will just do it..
Yeh me too, huge dose of salt right now, until proven otherwise. Especially when there was more talk and theories of it when price was around $60K than there was at $30K
No doubt the theory will return with price reaching 6 figures
I'll only consider it when price doesn't eventually drop 75%...
We already had a 56% drop in a bull market, so I would speculate that a bear market is subjected to higher drops.
Agreed. Arguably 60%+ plus if we look at the previous 80%+ drops that occurred. The irony being by then it's almost too late to re-position
To the extent that you are suggesting that it is better to be in front of the price and to already establish what you are going to do in advance, then I would agree about that.
Just imagine if the price ended up going up to $1.5 million in this cycle
I apologise, but I refuse to do so such things.
Don't do it then.
Refuse to work with me on extremes that I consider to be possible, even though on the further end of the extremes of something bullish that could happen.
and there would be no surprise to have another 80% correction.. or even if the BTC price only did a whimpy $750k, a 80% correction only brings us back down to $150k.... You can call it a supercycle or whatever, but I still would say that something like that would be business as usual, just dealing with BIGGER numbers but similar percentages.. .. and sure maybe volatiltity would go down too so the UPs would not be as high and the LOWs would not be as low, but that is kind of an inevitable development too with a growing asset class, so I am not even sure if it is reasonable to refer to it as a supercycle, even if such an UP without very much down could happen, but in my thinking it is a big so what? I still have a lot of BTC no matter if it happens or not.
But surely there are some folks who might ONLY have 1 BTC or even 0.21BTC, and they are kind of hoping for BTC prices to go to $1.5 million or some kind of outrageous UPpity in this cycle.. and nI am not even suggesting that it might not happen, but just that it does not seem to be very healthy to put too many cards in that scenario.. that may or may not happen... and the odds to me seem to be that BTC is going to likely continue to have both a lot of overshooting in both directions and wars that contribute to the overshooting at least for quite a while in the future, and if such wars and overshooting do not happen, then that is fine, too... but seems like a less likely scenarios to have a lovey dovey btclandia world without wars and overshooting.
$750K in this cycle is wimpy, what is target here? Or do you mean $75K? I am conservatively looking at $100-150K. If with a blow off top then nearer $200-250K. Or bulls getting trapped around a $300K wick when exchanges pull triggers.
Sure, you can plan out in more narrow expectations, that is your choice.
I am not sure about whether I had considered all scenarios in 2017, but in 2016/2017 I had been conjecturing that we were going to top out in the $3k to $5k range scenario.. and perhaps shoot beyond (just hoping for the best) but of course, you know that we ended up going to $20k. but at the same time, I had revised my sell on the way up plan in order that I was selling way more on the way up because I had decided that I did not want to sell a lot of BTC.. even though the BTC price shot up quite a bit beyond my expectations.
So even my memory is failing me, and maybe I have to look back at some of my posts from that time, because by the time that the $20k top came, I did not consider that the top was yet in.. so who knows the extent that any of that matters, if at all?
Of course, this time around we could consider varying ranges and more bullish and less bullish scenarios.
The various tops would have varying likelihoods of playing out such as my SOMA calculations:
above $1.5 million - unthinkable of most bullish of scenarios - about .5% odds
$800k to $1.5 million - most bullish of scenarios - about 2.5% odds
$600k to $800k - 2nd most bullish of scenarios - about 4.25% odds
$300k to $600k - Moderately highly bullish - about 7.25% odds
$100k to $300k - normal range bullish - about 12.5% odds
$65k to $100k - hardly bullish - but at least a new ATH as our top - about 13% odds
$55k to $65k - deadman's zone.. not likely to be a top - about 14.5% odds
$current price to $55k - relatively bearish - about 18% odds
down from here - most bearish - but possible - about 28% odds
I am not sure if I should have all of those odds add up to 100%, but just for comprehensiveness sake, I tallied them up in such a way.
I still more than anything else look at the logarithmic growth, this is the only "true" statistical price-based projection for me so far, that for end of year lines up with $150K.
Sounds good for anyone with a lack of imagination... hahahahaha
#nohomoThe stock to flow isn't even that useful arguably, as it's not a level that tries to identify a price top. More like a minimum limit that can be reached before realizing that a top is due to come, and speculation is too high etc.
Seems to be amongst of the best of models out there that co-integrates history and projects demand as a constant forward. Don't want to be overly reliant on its projections forward because it is about the future, and no one knows the future... but as far as models goes, it seems to be a damned decent tentative guide.
In summary that the price is finally overvalued, that being curently around $100K as you probably know.
I don't know.. I gave my currently best-guess SOMA ideas of approximate numbers above.
Without doing the math directly, prices of $750K-$1M wouldn't be a case of lower % increases from bottom to top, in the proportionate sense. This is where log growth in my mind accurately factors in the declining speed of growth. Unless I'm mistaken here and you're talking about a much longer bull market in terms of time, then for sure, anything is possible I guess.
Of course, when I talk about this cycle I talk about the possibility of it ending this calendar year or potentially dragging out until as late as the 3rd quarter of 2022.. and sure it is possible to drag out longer but I was not trying to lock my lil selfie into time constraints in the event that the bull cycle could end up getting pushed up and beyond on a bit longer than expected time scale.. bitcoin gives no shits about time constraints or dumb ass charts that fail/refuse to take into account thew price dynamics that are created in connection with an exponential s-curve adoption and also the valuable attributes of a paradigm-shifting** value transmission and retention technology...
**paradigm-shifting means that the invention has not happened before, and when such paradigm-shifting is actually happening in the context of the largest wealth transfer in human history, there seems to be a king of need to account for possible chart-breaking possible scenarios, even if not too likely to actually happen in reality or in this particular cycle - still good to consider such.. bitcoin is no mature asset class that is restricted by previous centralized systemsYeh a strategy that is comfortable for the individual, as well as more successful than DCA - otherwise clearly there is no point buying dips and lump sum investing if you're doing it wrong!
What do you mean by wrong? because people are going to develop systems.. I suppose wrong could be failing/refusing to think about what they are doing, including investing too much and then panicking, no?
Yeh fair point, I shouldn't say wrong, more like less successful. But ultimately, it's upto the individual as to how they feel comfortable investing. In my mind, if you are investing with lump sums but getting less returns than DCA than probably better off just setting automated buying on an exchange and paying the extra 3% for the extra XX% you'd be making if you weren't trying to outsmart the market so often. That said, lump sums are easier to send to cold storage than the maintenance of DCA.
Also potentially the ignorance of thinking they are doing it better that the market overall, while not realising they are not doing as well as they could be if not trying to buy the right price all the time for sure. At least with DCA, you can go to a website and check how you are doing. With lump sums, you need to set up your own portfolio and actively manage (or at least maintain it). I guess it comes down more to amount of effort an individual is willing to make, as well as how much they actually care.
I doubt that DCA has to be lazy in terms of accounting and keeping track, even if it might be lazy in terms of not even trying to predict the future.. just buy no matter what on a regular schedule.
Sometimes I hear people say "I think I put X in and now it's worth around X." They don't really know, but they know it's worth more than they put in, and many seem quite content with this simplicity alone.
Setting and forgetting might have some attributes of not performing regular calculations, but does not mean that calculations cannot be done from time to time to figure out the details.. to the extent details might be needed.
If a BTC investor considers that regular retirement (or "fuck you" status) may take 30-40 years to build, and appreciates that a decent number of normies do not even make it to such fuck you status within that timeframe, then he might consider his first 6-10 years to be a kind of building of the BTC portfolio size but not too likely to be getting close to reaching fuck you status.. but surely, there could be cases in bitcoin in which historically some guys become surprised to have been able to make it to fuck you status in way less than 1/2 of the expected time as compared with normies... so sure, in the first few years of investing into bitcoin, such bitcoin investors may assess that the BTC portfolio value is not really even getting close to fuck you status, but surely there are scenarios in which after 6 years or so, maybe the btc investment starts to recognize that s/he is starting to have half of the value of fuck you status in his/her BTC holdings, so such BTC investor starts to get excited about possibly reaching fuck you status much earlier than normies (and previous plans)... and maybe at that point starts to pay attention more to the value of his/her BTC investment portfolio.
Sure past performance does not necessarily equal future results, but someone who had been aggressively investing into BTC at about $100 per week over the past 6 years, could now already be half way to fuck you status.. and that would be a kind of amazing and exciting thing for someone who is relatively young in his/her career.
Such BTC portfolio would have about 21.5 BTC.. and be spot price valued at $1million even with only about $31,400 invested.Let's say if you have no coins at all, well you better buy some no matter the price... and then plan from there.. I do not agree with plans that just say wait, unless it is really clear that downity is coming and inevitable (but almost never is downity inevitable - except maybe while it is happening.. and even then it could stop or reverse at any moment)... it is almost never completely clear... so if you were to have $3k to invest but no coins at all, then invest $1k right away would likely be a good start and plan the other $2k for DCA and buying on dips.. and then go from there... in terms of tailoring and at least you are starting out with some stake "in the game.".. from the start, and yes, mistakes could be made because the BTC price might go down from the entry point, and I give no fucks about the price going down after an initial getting started investment, and hopefully you did not be t the whole farm on the initial investment, and fail/refuse to prepare for possible down.
In some sense, when you start to buy yo do not know which way the BTC price is going to go, and you ONLY find out with certainty that the BTC price is going down after it happens, but that should not stop you from investing and figuring out some further plans if you had not planned any details from the start.. we know that saying failing to plan is planning to fail, so some planning should be involved... rather than just going in blindly, even though there might be an initial quasi-blind gettin started investment amount... just to get started..
Of course, there should be some individual tweaking of any BTC accumulation strategy that may later evolve to maintenance or liquidation.. but it starts out with accumulation, but it is quite good to get started right away, and even if you decide only to buy $100 right away and to set your other $2,900 up with buying on dips and DCA, then that is a decision that you could decide to make as well.. but in my opinion it is good to get the fuck off zero as soon as possible. and then go from there. and yes, plenty of folks do not agree with me about that... and they believe that there is some kind of need to wait for a dip (that may or may not come), especially if such newbie that does not know shit except what mainstream media might be saying that there are good feelings that a dip is coming.... and yeah a dip is always coming, but it might not come.. and my point is we do not know, and when we come to BTC most of us already are 100% in fiat or fiat related investments, so it is not going to hurt much if anything to buy a wee bit of BTC right way and get your ass the fuck off of zero as soon as possible whether it is buying $100 or $1,000 while you are thinking about the next move(s) about what to do (if anything ) after that.
I've heard general example from you before, and it's a good point to never generalize about the strategy you (plural) are implementing versus someone else's that has completely different exposure, so is always true it seems.
I doubt that I am generalizing.
I am giving some examples regarding how a no coiner might contemplate ways to start to invest in BTC while attempting to account for his/her preferences and style.. and surely it is best for him her to account for cashflow, risk tolerance, timeline, other investments, view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, time, abilities and skills to plan, strategies, learn and tweak along the way which may include reallocating, trading or use of higher level techniques (not recommended by me for beginners).
Often I tell people I wouldn't be investing at X price, but if I didn't have any coin at all, I'm be buying it up in a hurry.
Of course, same here... get the fuck off zero, no coiners.
It depends as much on your exposure level as to what price / time-frame you want to engage in with your investment strategy I realise. I also remember selling BTC around $17.5K (at previous peak) when my brother wanted to buy at $15K. I told him I already took profits, but that for sure if he didn't have any then it'd be a dumb idea not to - for the long-term at least. It's also a good job he did buy it at that price, as once price fell to $10K then $5K he wasn't as keen on buying BTC anymore! In contrast,
Nothing wrong with getting in at the top and buying on the way down so long as you have a long investment timeline.. and probably a plan to keep buying.. and for sure no one is going to know when is the top.
I was spending my time eyeing up the price between these levels and laddering myself in. So also comes down to your "interest" level, as well as risk-tolerance it seems.
Comes down to budgeting too, especially if you get in at the top and the price keeps going down.
Often it's also not so much about how much profit you may have already made as well, but how much you still have invested I find.
Being in profits does make everything feel more comfortable.. but sometimes it is good to establish a sufficient enough stake in order that there is meaning.. so if you only own .1BTC that you bought at a $300 (so only $30).. Yeah, your profits are high as fuck, but you are going to be doing way better if you bought 10 BTC for an average of $12k, even though your percentage of profits will be way lower.. alternatively, you could have bought 100 BTC at $33k, and you are going to be even better off -even though you may well be quite nervous about the BTC price dropping back into the $30ks.
By the way, I had an uncle who I sent $10 of BTC in 2014, and then he bought $300 in 2016.. and then he sat on the amount until mid 2017, and then he sold all of it when BTC prices were around $3,500 (made some big money with nearly 6x profits) and he continues to be a no coiner.. because he failed/refused to continue to take a stake in it or to take much if any action besides one lump sum investing. Peeps are going to peep... and sometimes do dumb stuff.
My uncle told me at $5K in August 2017 when I first bought Bitcoin that it was the stupidest investment to ever make, as someone very experienced and successful in investing. He asked why and I said "cos price go up til futures launch". He was pretty shocked to see that it did eventually continue to climb until CME launched, even if dropped to $3K prior to this. Futures launch was around the time my stop loss triggers were hit and he finally realized why I had invested all my savings into a moonshot
He later asked me around $6-8K 2018 "what happens from here then". I said price doubles, or drops in half then quadruples probably, hard to tell. He asked me what I was doing and told him I had re-invested all my profits and would invest more if price dropped in half. For some reason, he still thought I was a lunatic. Once price did reach $12K he finally realized why I had doubled down previously and then taking profits, thought it was a pretty smart move in the mid-term.
Some people just don't get it, even when they repeatedly learn, and therefore he never became a coiner despite his high interest in Bitcoin's volatility. Also considered the volatility to be a negative aspect
That said, probably now he owns GBTC or something snazzy
Yep.. sometimes they come in later, and some of them might be buying their first BTC around $83k.. hahahaha
Yeh I don't think normal people should follow my strategy what so ever, I advise everyone and anyone who wants to know to put a small amount of money in.
Only after a few years of in depth research as well as experience should anyone try and outperform the market in my opinion.
That said I do have a friend who follow trades me and does quite well from it
Of course, if someone is following your attempting to time the market strategy with small amounts, then such person can figure out if some variation of that style is comfortable for him/her or if s/he needs some other style that is more comfortable. .. and it could be some individually tailored variation of what you do that could evolve over time to be either more like what you do or to deviate into more of a a strategy that does not involve attempting to time the market.
For sure, you would not want someone just jumping in blindly in styles that attempt to time the market, and some people are more willing to attempt to learn than others, too.
Very true, and while following me and "safe" dips and momentum plays, he was more reluctant to buy into the covid dip while I was still (fortunately) dollar cost averaging. Later he obviously questioned why I didn't tell him to buy BTC at $5K, despite the fact that a loan he gave me arrived late (at around $5.5K) so I cancelled my $5K to $10K trade set up and even offered him back the money in Bitcoin. The irony being I was looking for trading debt, but the price was 10% higher than I planned to enter, so sensibily cancelled this risky bet (no regrets there either, it was ultimately the right thing to do). He was looking to invest, but followed my cancellation of a trade as "don't invest" and therefore based his own strategy around this.
For sure, guys should be trading based on their own circumstances. I think that some people fail refuse to get into bitcoin because they see that I have been selling all the way up from $10k to $65k, so when they ask me if they should buy, I almost always say yes.. if they have no coins, they better get the fuck started.. and it does not matter the price, but they find out that I have been selling all the way up and I have not bought much because they BTC price had hardly even dipped.. but once it did dip from $65k, I started buying at $55k and I bought all the way down to $29k.. so sometimes they get scared off ow what they should do based on what I am doing (or have been doing), which is not the same as their situation. . for sure.
He always regrets this moment, still to this day. This was around the time I was more of less all in and got "trapped" while laddering remaining capital in around $6-8K, around my average. Ultimately it wasn't that much of a trap, but obviously my limit buys
could have been a lot lower. Again, his consideration was that I had made a mistake as I'd recently invested and prices had dropped 50% lower. He didn't quite understand my "fuck it" attitude around the idea that for me $6K-8K had been a long-term accumulation zone I'd been investing into for years with lump sums. He then adopted a bit of a "fuck it throw it in" attitude around $20K at least, while I was speculating elsewhere, realising it was more about exposure than it was about price.
Needless to say, follow trading isn't the way forward when it can be unclear that while one person is not buying the dip as already all in, they are still dollar cost averaging as well as looking for a loan to trade the price UP
Obviously it should mean BTFD as an investor to someone more versed in the diversity of investing strategies, but not always obvious to others who want to invest moar.
If for some reason, I come across extra cash, I am going to figure out where I am going to plug it in, and I may well buy 1/3 right way, plug 1/3 into my DCA and plug 1/3 into buying on dips... Of course, I have to assess particulars of what I am going to do based on when that extra cash ends up coming into my account.. including assessing the status of where my then current buy/sell orders are at..
That said, the profit taking strategy is very simplistic. Ideally wait for price to get above all Weekly MAs (short,mid,long) after being in a 4 year long downtrend, get confirmation of a bull cross on the Daily, make sure the target is 4x minimum. Sell half at 2x. Keep selling half at 2x. Rinse and repeat. Set all the limit sells in advance and generally ignore with limited maintenance. I only leave some shit to run when I've pulled at least 75% out of already (made profit). Even then, I'll sell any breakdowns that I see when the tide changes, as 10-20x is great, but 90-95% drops isn't as useful to me ;-) A lot of shit ends up back to entry price with a 50-75% drop anyway, so don't feel the need to re-position myself (or double down, fuck that).
I otherwise ignore all so-called fundamentals of altcoins. If the chart looks good I buy, if it looks like it's breaking down, I take profits. Completely emotionless and without a grain of sentiment basically. Never sell at a loss either.
None of this sounds bad, really.. just a wee bit more complicated than focusing on BTC and DCA, lump sum and buy on dips.
It's a shit load more complicated in fairness! DCA is easy, buy and send. Lump sums is relatively straight forward when you get used to it. Buying dips is sometimes uncomfortable, but once you've set your orders then it sorts itself out.
I don't consider the combination of the three techniques of DCA, lump sum investing and buying on dips to be easy.. because there is a need to assess where you are at, but sure once it is set up, then it is a matter of tweaking from time to time... in my mind, no need to add more complexity than necessary.. and beginning strategies should not be very complicated, but it still can take a long ass fucking time to stack dollars on the buy side and stack BTC on the sell side in such a way that you are comfortable and you never run out of dollars if the price crashes and you never run out of BTC if the price goes up, even though you are buying on the wy down and selling on the way up.
Trading alts means I can end up spending days on end looking at hundreds of charts in order to find the ones I'm looking for. Then checking for stop buy triggers on a daily basis in order to set limit sells. It's exhausting
Fuck shitcoins.. who needs that nonsense and smoke and mirrors complications to mess up your other wise "getting richie through lillie fiends" life?
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