Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JimboToronto]

Good afternoon Bitcoinland.

Still fighting the battle for $50k... currently  $48320USD/$60930CAD (Bitcoinaverage).

Less than a month of summer left. I think we're all ready for the autumn bull run. (Northern hemisphere of course).

Go Bitcoin go.

I hope you're making use of your lake today JimboToronto!  It's quite hot for late August.

Damn straight.

We were barely surviving in the heat wave downtown. The temperature was bad enough but the humidity was oppressive.

We headed up early Thursday and didn't get back until late last night.

What a relief. We actually had to put jackets on in the morning.

[1714056330]

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[1714056330]

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[1714056330]

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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

Next move: ditch the bank altogether.

It might not be practical for most bitcoiners yet, but it will be someday relatively soon.

Yes real bitcoiner same to the picture invest low price and profit high and Shitcoiner recipients are the complete keeping opposite thinks.

It is not bad to consider whether bitcoin might happen to be a low price when investing into it, but the first thing is to get the fuck off zero.  So it may well not matter what the BTC price is, if you have no coins, you better get some.

It is better to consider bitcoin as a longer term investment, such as 4 years or longer.. of course, the longer the better.  Of course, if your investment timeline is less than 4 years, then you likely have to be more careful with the amount of your allocation into bitcoin.

We don't really give too many shits about shitcoiners might or might not think in this here thread.

The best thing is happening Truth be told Bitcoin can at least 4 years or more so view some portfolio. You are right that if I do not have bitcoin deposit I will never get very good results but since I love bitcoin I have some bitcoin deposit though it is very small. However, the funny thing is that I have had some of the bad experiences while trading Bitcoin (Maybe I’ve had this kind of bad experience because I’m  new in bitcoin.), I have lost some of Bitcoin and even after that I am confident that Bitcoin is conducive to a better life.

Well, ultimately you are the one who has to figure out both what your accumulation strategy is going to be and how you are going to attempt to maintain a decent amount of your wealth in bitcoin, if that happens to be a goal of yours and you really do believe in bitcoin.

I am not opposed to trading, but way too many people attempt to do it way too soon and way before their BTC portfolios are ready for such.  They also engage in trading with way the hell too much of their stash, including considering the possibility that always should be sufficiently and adequately prepared for UP, and it tends to not be a good strategy to sell bitcoin with the expectation of buying more back at a lower price, and of course, there are exceptions to every rule - especially if you figure out ways to sell small amounts decently high BTC price appreciation periods (on the way up in other words, and without expecting that you are going to be able to buy back at a lower price).

Of course, I have hardly any clues of your personal particulars, Subbir, beyond what small amount of information that you provided, and surely you do not necessarily need to provide too many personal particulars in order that we might be able to attempt to both brainstorm about what your strategy might be or get some ideas about whether others might learn from your sharing of information about your BTC related strategies.

Frequently I discuss the figuring out of your personal finances including how much cashflow that you have coming in, including how much of that you might be able to dedicate towards bitcoin purchases.

Once you establish that amount, then you will be in a better place to engage in your BTC accumulation strategies, which I consider lump sum investing, dollar cost averaging and buying on dips to be the three main categories of consideration.. and selling (including trading) would not be part of such initial strategies.. until you reach a certain accumulation point and/or profits point... and for sure, some guys just have very strong inclinations to try to trade and gamble with their strategies, so of course, you have to find a balance that works for you even through I personally believe that it is problematic to be fucking around too much with trying to time ups and downs until you have already gotten to a decently good BTC accumulation level largely based on the three buying strategies that I just mentioned.

If you want to continue with these considerations or even start a new thread, Subbir, then I don't mind going into more details of my thoughts on these kinds of matters, and sure there are guys with seemingly differing views, so of course it is going to make a difference if you have $12k available to you for BTC investing or $120, and having more value gives you more options, but it also can create some dilemmas too in regards to what to do... I frequently like to discuss a hypothetical person who might have $6k available now, and another $6k that comes available over the next 6 months, which can give some kind of concrete perspectives using fairly reasonably divisible amounts, and of course, anyone reading or participating in such discussion could use such numbers to attempt to adjust up or down both in regards to what s/he could do or to come to discretionary determinations regarding what kinds of strategies better fit his/her finances and his/her psychology.

[Arriemoller]

11 chartbuddys in one page..
that must be a record..

But, but, Chart buddy is important, without a useless repetitive bot to spam the pages we are nothing, the majority have decided that it is so, and the majority is always right, right?
No matter how dumb, right?

[El duderino_]

[JayJuanGee]

There is also the idea of no correct investment for everyone, so sure some people may end up with some shitcoins in their portfolios based on their circumstances and conclusions about what they believe fits their needs, and for sure I am not advocating shitcoins at all, but I do consider them to be so damned much correlated to bitcoin that it is way the hell better to learn about bitcoin and to get an adequate stake in bitcoin way before even exploring the mostly nonsense of shitcoins, and frequently those individuals who get involved in bitcoin in fairly deep ways will lose interest for shitcoins, not merely based on monetary performance but based on understanding aspects of what differentiates bitcoins from shitcoins.

Many people think that some shitcoins are at lower prices and low Market cap and they could easily get a big chunk of profits from them and allocate more of them or under someone's influence just invested their life savings into such shitcoins and after market dumps the prices crash,whales take out profits and all other lose funds and then blame the market for the same.Bitcoin is best in safe in all terms like prices, decent returns, security and adoption and why can't they see it.

Who cares what people say about shitcoins?  It's not really on topic here to be comparing and contrasting various shitcoins.  It's a slippery slope that does not lead us anywhere

While I agree Bitcoin is king daddy, I won't say that shitcoins have no use.  

I am mostly referring to "in this thread" when I start to become really hostile to any shitcoin discussion that is other than negative.

In other words, if you have nice things to say about various shitcoins, then probably better to take it to some other thread, because the conversation just seems to devolve if we get into comparison/contrasts regarding which shitcoin might happen to be less shitty.. and then what?  we are no longer focused in any other kind of way.

Another thing regular peeps say is that we can talk about race, intellectual superiority, sex/gender, religion, politics, diet (including what who ate for dinner), covid, blah blah blah.. and sure of course we can go all over the place on the various other (nonshitcoin) topics, but they are not likely to devolve into bullshit ideas that attempt to naysay on bitcoin for no reason at all beyond pumping some shitcoin or another.

Shitcoins sole purpose to me is to gain more BTC.  

There are threads about that in this forum, and no need to get into those details here..

I've doubled my Bitcoin stack in the last year by trading BTC/Shitcoin pairs.  

Good for you.. I am glad so far that you are not getting into too many specifics, except for tempting the topic that trading shitcoins is valuable.. which is also a slippery slope area.. because ultimately it you try to talk about it very much at all, then people are going to be tempted into asking you about specifics, and then what?  We are in lalalala  fantasylandia talk.

While I'll never hold a shitcoin longer than a week it has been a nice way for me to stack sats since I wasn't as early to Bitcoin as most others here.

There are ways to stack bitcoin too.. without getting involved in either trading or talking about shitcoins.. .. but anyhow, I have no issues or concerns about people gambling or engaging in various trading tactics to get more bitcoin .. but still seems that there are other threads on this forum in which such topics can be discussed without leading many of us here into temptations of talking about various shitcoins.. rather than attempting to NOT lose our focus on various many topics about dee badger.. or perhaps how many 2x4s or carts of tbones, hookers, lambos and blow you can buy for 0.21BTC?

11 chartbuddys in one page..
that must be a record..

But, but, Chart buddy is important, without a useless repetitive bot to spam the pages we are nothing, the majority have decided that it is so, and the majority is always right, right?
No matter how dumb, right?

You are making some senses Arriemoller.    

Go figure???


Your post is testimony that every single body has an ability to lurn MOAR better...   

Some peeps just take more time dan udder peeps.

 

[El duderino_]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[True Myth]

While I agree Bitcoin is king daddy, I won't say that shitcoins have no use.  

I am mostly referring to "in this thread" when I start to become really hostile to any shitcoin discussion that is other than negative.

In other words, if you have nice things to say about various shitcoins, then probably better to take it to some other thread, because the conversation just seems to devolve if we get into comparison/contrasts regarding which shitcoin might happen to be less shitty.. and then what?  we are no longer focused in any other kind of way.

Another thing regular peeps say is that we can talk about race, intellectual superiority, sex/gender, religion, politics, diet (including what who ate for dinner), covid, blah blah blah.. and sure of course we can go all over the place on the various other (nonshitcoin) topics, but they are not likely to devolve into bullshit ideas that attempt to naysay on bitcoin for no reason at all beyond pumping some shitcoin or another.

Shitcoins sole purpose to me is to gain more BTC.  

There are threads about that in this forum, and no need to get into those details here..

I've doubled my Bitcoin stack in the last year by trading BTC/Shitcoin pairs.  

Good for you.. I am glad so far that you are not getting into too many specifics, except for tempting the topic that trading shitcoins is valuable.. which is also a slippery slope area.. because ultimately it you try to talk about it very much at all, then people are going to be tempted into asking you about specifics, and then what?  We are in lalalala  fantasylandia talk.

While I'll never hold a shitcoin longer than a week it has been a nice way for me to stack sats since I wasn't as early to Bitcoin as most others here.

There are ways to stack bitcoin too.. without getting involved in either trading or talking about shitcoins.. .. but anyhow, I have no issues or concerns about people gambling or engaging in various trading tactics to get more bitcoin .. but still seems that there are other threads on this forum in which such topics can be discussed without leading many of us here into temptations of talking about various shitcoins.. rather than attempting to NOT lose our focus on various many topics about dee badger.. or perhaps how many 2x4s or carts of tbones, hookers, lambos and blow you can buy for 0.21BTC?

All points taken.  I'll continue to focus on hookers, blow, and lambo themed posts.

[fr4nkthetank]

everytime someone mentions "supply shock" I bang my head against my desk.  Pretty soon I will be saying "supply shock" myself I reckon.

[Toxic2040]

the noon wall report

Looks good...especially at higher time frames. Setup with flexibility and ready to pivot as needed.

Still strong sentiment and increasing demand are pushing upwards on price as one would expect.

All ahead one third.

dyor

1h


4h

stronghands

[El duderino_]

Peak bubble ??
https://twitter.com/julianhosp/status/1432176075677732866?s=21

[JayJuanGee]

the noon wall report

Looks good...especially at higher time frames. Setup with flexibility and ready to pivot as needed.

Still strong sentiment and increasing demand are pushing upwards on price as one would expect.

All ahead one third.

dyor

1h


4h

stronghands

Upon deeply assessing the various plusses and minuses contained within the squiggly lines of those two toxicmoxic charts including as much independent analysis that I am able to muster up within my weee wido selfie, I am having trouble concluding anything other than a fairly obvious supply shock that's in-progress of revealing itself.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[El duderino_]

[cAPSLOCK]

Just to keep this ball rollin...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supply_shock



According to Wikipedia:
A supply shock is an event that suddenly increases or decreases the supply of a commodity or service, or of commodities and services in general. This sudden change affects the equilibrium price of the good or service or the economy's general price level.

In the short run, an economy-wide negative supply shock will shift the aggregate supply curve leftward, decreasing the output and increasing the price level.[1] For example, the imposition of an embargo on trade in oil would cause an adverse supply shock, since oil is a key factor of production for a wide variety of goods. A supply shock can cause stagflation due to a combination of rising prices and falling output.

In the short run, an economy-wide positive supply shock will shift the aggregate supply curve rightward, increasing output and decreasing the price level.[1] A positive supply shock could be an advance in technology (a technology shock) which makes production more efficient, thus increasing output.

Technical analysis
Negative supply shock

The diagram to the right demonstrates a negative supply shock; The initial position is at point A, producing output quantity Y1 at price level P1. When there is a supply shock, this has an adverse effect on aggregate supply: the supply curve shifts left (from AS1 to AS2), while the demand curve stays in the same position. The intersection of the supply and demand curves has now moved and the equilibrium is now point B; quantity has been reduced to Y2, while the price level has been increased to P2.

The slope of the demand curve determines how much the price level and output respond to the shock, with more inelastic demand (and hence a steeper demand curve) causing there to be a larger effect on the price level and a smaller effect on quantity.

[El duderino_]

[fr4nkthetank]

well if you cant beat em... supply shock incoming

[cAPSLOCK]

well if you cant beat em... supply shock incoming

There we go!! You got this!

(I feel like we have been talking about supply shocks in one form or another for a decade...  but this time its DIFFERENT! )

You know... to be completely serious.  (I MEAN IT)

It is inevitable. 

There is going to come a point where even the speculators say... OK I am not selling into *THIS*.  And we realize how minuscule the actual real liquid BTC float actually is.

I have been speculating for months (maybe over a year now) that most of the action for bitcoin trade has been happening away from the retail exchanges.  I think most of the big trades are happening on OTC desks.  This is where Microstrategy, and Greyscale et al buy their corn.  It's not like they use Tradeogre... lol.  And really what we are seeing cleared out are OG whales and miners backstock that they want to part with.  I have speculated that there has been a LOT of this.  Early bitcoiners with 4-5 digit holdings are most certainly hedging all kinds of regulatory risk as well as wanting to just go ahead and buy the nice house or diversify into real estate, collectables etc.  While the miners also have back stock, and are willing to sell X amount for either the same sorts of reasons, or for cap-ex stuff.

But what happens after the third or fourth El Salvador rolls out.  And the retail markets hit phase II.

So far  (as in since 2010) it's been rich folks in the east and west speculating.  But more and more it's going to be users in developing countries using it to trade and save. And eventually we run out of loose float.  Many of the hands buying are pretty strong...

I honestly do not think we have seen the tip of the iceberg when it comes to the feedback loop we all know is possible.

Call it whatever you like... supply shock?  Ok.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation