Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

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[1714894378]

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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[OutOfMemory]

Part of me is fucking concerned if I’m honest.

My gut is telling me S2F falls apart soon. In shambles and an afterthought by March 2022.

Hope I'm wrong, but I think we should expect a slower rise than some are anticipating.

seconded.
But by all means, i don't follow the "fool of the bulls" argument from Torque. Bulls know how capitulation looks like, wait for it then and get in (around the infamous "mindrust point").
However, i'd need a new car within the next two years, solar power my home and pay off approx. $12k to the government to free myself from a payback plan from the government. Only the latter is really important, because otherwise i'd have to pay it off for the next 15 years for about double as much (mainly interest).
I can easily hodl the majority of my/the family stash for one or two decades.

Y'all remember that get-rich-quick-vs.-not-get poor-slowly quote, right?

[OgNasty]

The make or break moment is nearly upon us. If the next 40 days doesn’t produce the beginnings of a major bubble, it will start to discourage those of us who have been watching the stock to flow ratio for a couple cycles now.

Luckily it seems there’s news of an approved ETH incoming that seems to be legitimate…

that's a funny typo..what's on your mind? lol

that said, i am not worried...yet, but it seems that NOBODY predicted this cycle..as it should be...contrary to Willy Woo's assertion, bitcoin is not really "mechanical".

I think I’ve been typing about NFTs too much. My phone is getting a little auto-correct happy on the Ethereum references. Between that and always changing my ‘wouldn’t’ to ‘would’ I think my phone is out to sabotage me. Indeed I meant ETF, as it seems like Coinbase tipped off the market with their now deleted tweet.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[PoolMinor]

[vroom]

[El duderino_]

Long time no see

[serveria.com]

Anybody like to share their thoughts on the current market, price action?

It looks weak AF to me. I mean, I think everything is OK & we should rally in Q4 but we really need to start moving up soon. Part of me is fucking concerned if I’m honest.

It's always darkest before the dawn. September hasn't been particularly great for BTC since the beginning. Our targets for Q4:
October = new ATH (over $60k)
November = up to around $100-120k
December = blowoff top anywhere between $200-450k

So stop whining and get ready to get your face melted by this epic rally... 

[El duderino_]

The make or break moment is nearly upon us. If the next 40 days doesn’t produce the beginnings of a major bubble, it will start to discourage those of us who have been watching the stock to flow ratio for a couple cycles now.

Luckily it seems there’s news of an approved ETH incoming that seems to be legitimate…

Every person with some intelligence should now that the model could be invalid at some point….
It’s nice to follow and we all hope it stays accurate, but there can’t be exact price prediction in BTC…
S2F is a very good and interesting model with a lot of logic, but I don’t really believe in the that month = price X, next month = price y etc etc

If BTC proves us one thing then it’s that it’s unpredictable price wise

I just hope not to many people pinning there selves on price predictions in near future…











Please PlanB stay on point, S2F is all I got, my full hope is on that model.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[serveria.com]

But I can't say stuff like that here, because:

Please don’t do that. We need critical thinkers more than anything at this time. Even if all hell breaks loose.

I've lived through the past bull runs of 2013 and 2017, and TBH, even having the experience of 2013 behind me, the bull run of 2017 still disappointed me. Because at that time, I believed way to hard that "this time is different".

But it wasn't any different. In both 2013 and 2017 cases there was a blow off top, and a bounce to a lower level top, and then finally months later, a high-volume capitulation.

So what do I see when I look at the current 2021 chart? A blow off top, and a bounce that we are currently in, that looks like a lower top forming. I still don't see a high-volume capitulation yet.

Will a capitulation happen this time, or will we just blow past that? I don't really know, I can't say. But something inside tells me it's possible that this time is no different than any of the others. This market just loves to make "fools of the bulls" almost every fkn time.

Just my 2c. I will hodl no matter what happens.

Where do you see that blowoff top? That teeny tiny lil bump doesn't look like exponential growth to me...  

[El duderino_]

[El duderino_]

[Cryptotourist]

Hope I'm wrong, but I think we should expect a slower rise than some are anticipating.

Tell that to this lying son of a bitch:

December = blowoff top anywhere between $200-450k

Anything above $288k is just not realistic, cause it breaks the S2F from the upper side. Get a grip. Ease the cocaine.

Hashrate looks pretty damned good to me.

It’s around the levels of November 2020, and it’s the reason of my concern ($10k>$60k vs $40k>?), you previously skipped so nicely.

Bitcoin is doing its thing in regard to ongoing difficulty adjustments and the creation of incentives that seems quite amazing in the whole scheme of things.

True dat. In a sense, this is the BTC Hashrate Observer.

If there is something specific that bothers you, then please let us know, rather than being mysterious about what appears to be fantastical, rather than real, attempts at FUD spreading assertions.

I’m balls deep in BTC, and I’m spreading “FUD”, because you don’t agree? Whatever you say Jay.

Please PlanB stay on point, S2F is all I got, my full hope is on that model.

It is, and it will, the rest is just noise.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[OutOfMemory]

Anybody like to share their thoughts on the current market, price action?

It looks weak AF to me. I mean, I think everything is OK & we should rally in Q4 but we really need to start moving up soon. Part of me is fucking concerned if I’m honest.

... intermediate bottom signal confirmed, face-melting rally can begin now.

Hint: check out the WALLS on Bitstamp, bitfinex and coinbase, they may all be faked but I don't think so.

I CAN'T HELP to think that HFT bots are involved, considering the rate and range at which walls are "moving" in real time.
Also, if you watch for longer times, the same total amounts are set per price range are consantly appearing out of nowhere, getting adjusted on very low timeframes.
I watch them grouped by $10, $50 and $100.
Does that hurt marketcap growth?
Imo yes, a little bit. It makes sure that exchange coins stay in rotation (liquid) while fiat is milked out of the market.
Once the bullish counter-movement (you know what i mean?)  overwhelms the average of ask orders by magnitudes, it's moon time again, while the bots will continue milking, but at less efficiency. If you have all the money up your ass you can't even spend within a lifetime, why milk the market?

Smells like... right: hedgefunds discovered crypto.

EDIT: ...and i didn't even mention Futures and Options yet.

EDIT2: So what can you do? My approach is just go with the flow. Buy the dips, check price less often, and never forget about mindrust.
@LFC, ya hearing me, mah man?

[goldkingcoiner]

I vote we make this the official hodl sign...

[serveria.com]

Hope I'm wrong, but I think we should expect a slower rise than some are anticipating.

Tell that to this lying son of a bitch:

December = blowoff top anywhere between $200-450k

Anything above $288k is just not realistic, cause it breaks the S2F from the upper side. Get a grip. Ease the cocaine.

Here's a quote from Plan B himself specially for our little retarded friend:

According to the S2F model, BTC’s price is supposed to be at $88,531 on July 20, which is nearly three times the current price. In fact, earlier this year, PlanB suggested that Bitcoin could hit $450,000 before the end of this year in the best-case scenario, and $135,000 in the “worst-case scenario.“ Furthermore, the model predicts that Bitcoin is expected to have hit its much-awaited $1 million mark in July 2025.

[OutOfMemory]

FYI: Onchain analysts all say that october will all be about rip or dip.
Chances of rip are higher, also based on history, but as we all know, king daddy doesn't care so much about the past.

Somebody mentioned the sentiments are arriving at frustration levels, which usually led to many rocket.gifs posted on WO.