Part of me is fucking concerned if I’m honest.
My gut is telling me S2F falls apart soon. In shambles and an afterthought by March 2022.
Hope I'm wrong, but I think we should
expect a slower rise than some are anticipating.
seconded.
But by all means, i don't follow the "fool of the bulls" argument from Torque. Bulls know how capitulation looks like, wait for it then and get in (around the infamous "mindrust point").
Even though I can recognize some value in a buying a dip approach, many of us need to be careful with any such approach that is going to hold large quantities of our fiat waiting for dips that do not end up happening.
Of course, we are going to feel smart as fuck if we end up buying upon a mindrust kind of moment.. but those kinds of moments are definitely difficult to identify and/or prepare for.
I am not really writing my response for you OOM, but instead about your seemingly misleading comment in regards to your rendition of your buying on the dip intentions/practices.
Let's say that anyone who has already accumulated a decent bitcoin stash, but that same person is trying to time some of the BIGGER BTC price swings in order to get some additional profits from what is a somewhat inevitability in bitcoin, which is decently high volatility. So, a kind of presumption is that person is already pretty well prepared for UP, they just want to supplement their BTC stash with some additional BTC from the quite likely inevitable BTC price dips. My suggestion would still be to figure out some kind of a formula that attempts to anticipate the most extreme that we might expect any dip to be able to go, and to stagger buys at various points on the way down, and surely still hopefully being able to take advantage of the most extreme aspects of the extremes... if those extremes were to end up happening.
One possible measurement would be to use weekly moving averages, and I consider the 208-week moving average (currently $16,000-ish) to be the now current measure of extreme of BTC price lows for bear markets and the 104-week moving average (currently $24,000-ish) to be the now current measure of extreme BTC price lows for bull markets. Accordingly, staggered buy (buy on dip) orders could be set to go down to something around those levels of extremes..
I hilighted the part my "seconded" was referring to. The slower than anticipated price rise.
Oh? maybe I misinterpreted part of what you were saying, then?
Some WO's granny predicted 80k (we don't know if € or $, yet), and i feel this could also be the top in 2021,
If it is in the WO then it should be in dollars... because that is our trading pair reference in these here parts...
And surely $80k seems like a very small blow-off top, so it does not seem too likely.. at least in terms of the various credible BTC price prediction models that we have, currently.
while it absolutely says nothing about 2022, maybe in Q1 we can see double figures or three times as much before possible blowoff or consolidation.
All just SOMA.
I doubt that it is very meaningful to separate calendar year and talk separately about what might happen in 2022.. because for all intents and purposes, we are in the middle of a cycle and a bull run, so the ONLY real question remains when the bull run portion is over.. Is it already over? Not sure yet, but seems like, not.
As for moveing averages, i'd search for those that fit past cycles best.
The 104-week and the 208-week moving averages work, so I suppose it depends on what you are trying to achieve... I try NOT to give too many shits about the various happenings in the middle of a cycle.. but I am somewhat concerned about bottoms or potential bottoms.. so call that part of my bias and the reasons why I have recently been trying to employ the 104-week moving average and the 208-week moving average in terms of expressing some of my concerns.
I don't care if i set most of my orders higher, just to avoid remaining, sitting on a bag of slowly decreasing fiat money.
Fair enough.. there is likely a balance in terms of how much fiat to hold... and peeps are going to come to differing conclusions regarding their comfort levels in those regards.
$16k would be more than four times as much as 2019's bottom, which you could clearly see (and i bought a little of BTC when it was on the rise again, shortly after).
Well the 208-week moving average was around $5k in March 2020, and the BTC price went below it for about 10 days or so.
Of course, since the current BTC spot price is nearly 3x the 208-week moving average, the 208-week moving average is continuing to move up at quite a decent pace.. something like 10% per month.. or maybe even a wee bit more than that... at least for now... and sure it is a lagging indicator too..
I mean that last high-volume drop up to -45%. Even if it doesn't happen in future times, when you sell on the way up, which i got a small part of my stash for, it doesn't really matter if you buy around mindrust or 10-20% higher, also if the price goes deeper before rising again. So i won't make 1000% of the amount i sold on the way up, but 700-800% which is enough. Imagine 5BTC, total, i decide to sell 0.5 more or less near the cycle top and buy 2-3 at the bottom +10%, i still total at least 6.5 BTC.
Being greedy (daytrading) didn't really work for me, so i'm playing the patience game, dropping free money into small dips.
Sure.. in the end, each of us has to figure out some formulas, indicators and employment of strategies (even if we feel that we are attempting to play the BIGGER of the price swings) that we feel work for us.
However, i'd need a new car within the next two years, solar power my home and pay off approx. $12k to the government to free myself from a payback plan from the government. Only the latter is really important, because otherwise i'd have to pay it off for the next 15 years for about double as much (mainly interest).
I can easily hodl the majority of my/the family stash for one or two decades.
You are not going to get any arguments from me in regards to attempting to anticipate and prioritize your expenses... which I agree is a good thing to do at the best of your ability and perhaps to tweak from time to time too, for example as your wife nags you about how her priorities (or even choices in expenses) might be different from yours.. and you cave in like a little wimp
(not even saying that you are an actual wimp, in real life).. .. hahahahaha
My wife is different. We magically seem to agree on the "we want" part of expenses, while she pays the "i want" part by herself, and she also has bitcoin (as a reserve for the future), so if she's desperate for more money, she would just pay out a bit of her stash. I am aware that i'm very lucky with her, compared to most couples i know, which become pretty function-oriented partnerships based on compromises. We don't need that.
My main point in making some of the above statements was not so much about your wife in particular, but only that there sometimes needs to be some prior conceptualization and/or flexibilities built into your own strategies and plans in order that you are able to adapt to some changes in real life circumstances that might not had been previously known or anticipated.... or even if they were partially known and anticipated, you likely are not going to know the details or specifically how to respond to the specifics until you get to time 2 rather than when you are at time 1.
Y'all remember that get-rich-quick-vs.-not-get poor-slowly quote, right?
For sure.. relatively speaking having bitcoin in your portfolio (whether apportioned appropriately or not) will likely help with the not getting poor aspect.. but there still could be some getting rich more quickly than expected (or more rich than expected) aspects that inadvertently come by holding bitcoin, too.. .even if the getting richie part might not have been the main goal (for sure, it has already happened to quite a few of those of us who have been in a while and have been somewhat aggressive with our approach.. not even saying that 0.21 BTC would not be a good aggressive starting point, currently.. then working your way up to 0.63BTC, then 1 BTC, then 2 BTC, then 10 BTC, then 21 BTC.. etc.. no normie is ever going to need more than 21 BTC, right?).
Also, I remember that you had started out your post by agreeing that S2F is potentially "falling apart soon," but you hardly made any arguments or assertion to support such likely to be baloney "agreement.".. but of course, you (and others) can believe what you want in terms of what are currently the most credible of the BTC prediction models or even to spin
(or should it be "roll"?) your own
likely to be wrong and based on gut feelings BTC price prediction model(s), too.
Edited a few of the above ideas 30 minutes after the original post, to clarify what I had been attempting to sayI believe in S2F, but as you can see, the "ballpark lines" (steps?) are long at the same levels, so the top could be in Q2, even in Q3 of 2022.
Sure.. I am o.k. with that, too.
But then, as i originally meant it, the price will have to rise more slowly than compared to 2017.
I have trouble with "have to", but I understand what you are saying.
The model is not "wrong", but imprecise.
I would think that most models are not going to be very precise.. especially when referring to a future that has not happened, yet.
The market has to move a fucking lot of money to re-draw 2017's chart this year. Call me bearish, but i doubt that.
You mean if we went from $3k to $20k in 3 months that is nearly 7x so.. 7x from here is $280k-ish?
Sure, might be a bit of a stretch, including NOT too likely to happen.. never say never, but sure.. perhaps low odds..
I would not be angry in any way if i'm wrong and we see $330k or more in dec/jan, but more the opposite.
Fair enough.
BTW: Have you had a look into S2FX, yet?
I hardly know the difference and hardly give any shits...yeah he is including other assets in there... whatever, I take those models with a grain of salt, even though I say that they are amongst the most convincing of factors, I still try not to get too much caught up in any of the particulars including if one has a higher top or blah blah blah.
Seven replies while i was typing... holy f... i'm slow
Yes.. you are a slow poe.. I must admit.
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