Part of me is fucking concerned if I’m honest.
My gut is telling me S2F falls apart soon. In shambles and an afterthought by March 2022.
Hope I'm wrong, but I think we should
expect a slower rise than some are anticipating.
seconded.
But by all means, i don't follow the "fool of the bulls" argument from Torque. Bulls know how capitulation looks like, wait for it then and get in (around the infamous "mindrust point").
Even though I can recognize some value in a buying a dip approach, many of us need to be careful with any such approach that is going to hold large quantities of our fiat waiting for dips that do not end up happening.
Of course, we are going to feel smart as fuck if we end up buying upon a mindrust kind of moment.. but those kinds of moments are definitely difficult to identify and/or prepare for.
I am not really writing my response for you OOM, but instead about your seemingly misleading comment in regards to your rendition of your buying on the dip intentions/practices.
Let's say that anyone who has already accumulated a decent bitcoin stash, but that same person is trying to time some of the BIGGER BTC price swings in order to get some additional profits from what is a somewhat inevitability in bitcoin, which is decently high volatility. So, a kind of presumption is that person is already pretty well prepared for UP, they just want to supplement their BTC stash with some additional BTC from the quite likely inevitable BTC price dips. My suggestion would still be to figure out some kind of a formula that attempts to anticipate the most extreme that we might expect any dip to be able to go, and to stagger buys at various points on the way down, and surely still hopefully being able to take advantage of the most extreme aspects of the extremes... if those extremes were to end up happening.
One possible measurement would be to use weekly moving averages, and I consider the 208-week moving average (currently $16,000-ish) to be the now current measure of extreme of BTC price lows for bear markets and the 104-week moving average (currently $24,000-ish) to be the now current measure of extreme BTC price lows for bull markets. Accordingly, staggered buy (buy on dip) orders could be set to go down to something around those levels of extremes..
I hilighted the part my "seconded" was referring to. The slower than anticipated price rise.
Oh? maybe I misinterpreted part of what you were saying, then?
Definitely. But it forced me being more precise, which is good.
Some WO's granny predicted 80k (we don't know if € or $, yet), and i feel this could also be the top in 2021,
If it is in the WO then it should be in dollars... because that is our trading pair reference in these here parts...
And surely $80k seems like a very small blow-off top, so it does not seem too likely.. at least in terms of the various credible BTC price prediction models that we have, currently.
The granny wasn't a WO, afair the WO wrote that he didn't ask about the currency and she only said 80k, as a fortune teller. (Did i forget to mention that?)
The WO in question must have been a europe based member then. Was it 600Watt? I don't even remember which of WO's are european, excluding el_dude, xhomerx10, fillippone, Arrie and gyrsur (where is he, btw?), along with some dudes sporting low quantity posts in WO.
Still, my memory seems to improve slowly over time.
while it absolutely says nothing about 2022, maybe in Q1 we can see double figures or three times as much before possible blowoff or consolidation.
All just SOMA.
I doubt that it is very meaningful to separate calendar year and talk separately about what might happen in 2022.. because for all intents and purposes, we are in the middle of a cycle and a bull run, so the ONLY real question remains when the bull run portion is over.. Is it already over? Not sure yet, but seems like, not.
I agree.
As for moveing averages, i'd search for those that fit past cycles best.
The 104-week and the 208-week moving averages work, so I suppose it depends on what you are trying to achieve... I try NOT to give too many shits about the various happenings in the middle of a cycle.. but I am somewhat concerned about bottoms or potential bottoms.. so call that part of my bias and the reasons why I have recently been trying to employ the 104-week moving average and the 208-week moving average in terms of expressing some of my concerns.
I set them in cryptowat.ch and looks like they make good sense.
I don't care if i set most of my orders higher, just to avoid remaining, sitting on a bag of slowly decreasing fiat money.
Fair enough.. there is likely a balance in terms of how much fiat to hold... and peeps are going to come to differing conclusions regarding their comfort levels in those regards.
I violate that balance regularly, tho.
A bit risky, but then again, i can always sell some corn when in urge of needing fiat.
Most of the time the price went up, the tax-free holding time of 1y passed, so it's a net+
One time i think i sold at a loss, but i "gained" so much more with the bigger, held portion of the stash, and i was even able to buy back most at a lower price, all in 2018/2019.
Seven replies while i was typing... holy f... i'm slow
Yes.. you are a slow poe.. I must admit.
This is due to the fact i have to re-read basically every sentence if it makes sense, check for editing errors, repetition...
Hard work for a brain like mine, which is running on reserve in some parts. I used to be a perfectionist. You can scratch that with a condition like poor working memory.
Plus the time i have to consult an online dictionary for words i randomly can't translate myself. I could sit down and think, but this would take much more time and even more time because of secondary effects of taking too much time to build sentences.
We all know that little pause events, when we ask to ourselves "wait, what did i want to say/do?" - I experience this constantly. Misplacing tools all the time, when i do manual work is also something i had to get used to. With such condition, you really have to take care of self-esteem and watch out that you don't start to hate yourself.
Like so, when returning from the online dictionary:
What did i just write before? Let's check... Hmm, feels like i already wrote something like this in this reply, let's see...
Great, i didn't. So what was it all about? Gotta re-read the paragraph i'm replying to... Oh, yeah, that was it. That's what i was about to reply, let's continue.
It's between a couple of seconds and half a minute, where i can keep an idea which i was following, without repeating it to myself.
Short term memory is ok-ish, long-time memory is great, but the buffer and storage/retrieve routines in between don't work right.
The good part: Once something gets into my long term memory, it stays there. Question is if i can remember it at the time when i need it.
I remember everything before my little exhausting flu almost perfectly, though.
The self-repetition habit changes my mind though, it makes almost everything heard last stick for a while. For example, when i go shopping and they play some music in a store, as soon as i get out, the song is repeating in my mind, until it get's cancelled by the next input-stimulus. If it goes on for too long, it kinda burns itself in a little. My car stereo is turned off most time, because of that
Man, do i love silence, btw
EDIT: writing all this took me another 5 in-between replies, FYI. (less than 50 minutes) Which is not too bad, considering the word count.
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