Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[serveria.com]

A end of year santa rally would be nice right about now, not liking these 40s, 50s is where its at.

I think it is unlikely. This end-of-month is the mother of all end-of-month events, and the landscape has already bears spotted around. Endure my friend, endure. I promise the reward will be sweet.

Well let me remind u not so long ago everybody and his dog was waiting for the moonshot, new ATHs and six digits. So did it happen? Honey badger doesnt care. It doesnt do what everybody expects it to do. 

Actually more frequently it does the opposite...

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[Gachapin]

Bitcoin ‘may not last that much longer,’ academic warns
https://www.c[Suspicious link removed]m/2021/12/17/bitcoin-may-not-last-that-much-longer-academic-warns.html

Message: You hear that Average Joe? It's not going to be around much longer. Stay the fk away from Bitcoin!

“Given that bitcoin is not serving well as a medium of exchange, I don’t think it’s going to have any fundamental value other than whatever investor’s faith leads it to have,” Prasad said.

Uh...that's the very definition of sound money, you dumbass.  

The interview (2nd vid) is a torture to watch...

The 'academic' with the old "Blockchain, not Bitcoin" fallacy, just to pitch his CB shitcoins  

"...CB currencies are going to remain dominant as stores of value"   .... yeah sure.
That's like saying drugs are going to remain the dominant help for people with emotional problems.


The "journalist" is a complete idiot. I'm afraid there are much more where he is coming from.

I fear many of them will go full on environmentalist on Bitcoin, if they aren't already. While having no clue about any thermodynamic argument, or things like 'nothing at stake' problems.

However, interesting to see MSM talking negatively about BTC again, since that's mostly the time when whales are buying.

[Richy_T]

Bitcoin ‘may not last that much longer,’ academic warns
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/17/bitcoin-may-not-last-that-much-longer-academic-warns.html

Message: You hear that Average Joe? It's not going to be around much longer. Stay the fk away from Bitcoin!

Was hoping that was going to be Stolfi.

[Gachapin]

Bitcoin ‘may not last that much longer,’ academic warns
https://www.c[Suspicious link removed]m/2021/12/17/bitcoin-may-not-last-that-much-longer-academic-warns.html

Message: You hear that Average Joe? It's not going to be around much longer. Stay the fk away from Bitcoin!

Was hoping that was going to be Stolfi.

I miss that guy and the discussions...

Roach was funny but no adequate replacement

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[BobLawblaw]

But Bob.  We NEED them!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RNfYtjQZcv0

You misunderstand. I understand we need the whales, but we can't feed them the cheap stuff all the time.

Sometimes they gotta deal with Brandon fucking up the economy, and eet the really spensive corn.

Ya dig?

[d_eddie]

A end of year santa rally would be nice right about now, not liking these 40s, 50s is where its at.

I think it is unlikely. This end-of-month is the mother of all end-of-month events, and the landscape has already bears spotted around. Endure my friend, endure. I promise the reward will be sweet.

Well let me remind u not so long ago everybody and his dog was waiting for the moonshot, new ATHs and six digits. So did it happen? Honey badger doesnt care. It doesnt do what everybody expects it to do.  

Actually more frequently it does the opposite...

She likes to go against expectations: I concur, serveria.
I guess you know I'm a permabull (although possibly not quite in your league )

However, keeping rational expectations, as in assigning fair looking probabilities to different outcomes, is the name of the game - at least for me, if I want to keep my feet on the ground and whatever's left of my mental sanity.

Reason says the short term landscape isn't too bullish. I think we'll have to grunt our way through 2021.
What about the bull? Still in place is my gut feeling. Sophisticated SOMA analysis and all. Ready to be proven wrong of course...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[marcus_of_augustus]

 ... Very nice chart xhomer

... i like that people are recognising the full/moon natural rhthymns that influence human social and economic behavours

... Now that we have the lunar basis rhythms setting the beat by the moon cycles we can take the music to another level

... the seasonal cycles can chime in also strongly influencing human behaviours on longer cycles for larger projects of 3, 6, 9 and 12 monthly cycles, as determined by Earth's orbit around the Sun, e.g. human pregnancy has a 9 month gestation, planting on equinoxes for reaping on solstices, etc

... so it's interesting to watch for turning point behaviours around the full/new moons closest to solstice and equinox dates

... a strong turning point trend established on or around a new/full moon close to a solstice/ equinox can set the trend for the following season, half year or even the whole year

... todays Bella Lunar falls just 60 hours from the last Solstice of 2021 and the Solstice of Rebirth for the Northern Hemisphere

 

There's another full moon tomorrow (or the 19th in the morning depending on where you live) and while this isn't trading advice, it looks as though there might just be something to all this talk of bitcoin "mooning" after all.  A little hopium chart for your perusal:


 

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Something to consider boys…….




@therationalroot
The reason for current extended sell-off, short 🧵👇

Asia’s largest exchange, Huobi, has stopped related trading in China. #Bitcoin  has been flowing from Asia to the US and Europe for some time.

https://twitter.com/therationalroot/status/1472240857659052036?s=21

@therationalroot
Thanks to @ultravirtu for bringing the Asian sell-pressure to our attention.
https://twitter.com/ultravirtu/status/1471883101022433284?s=20
https://twitter.com/therationalroot/status/1472240860033019905?s=21

@therationalroot
Against expectations of cycle history we’ve been hovering slightly below several key indicators like on-chain STH Cost-Basis and 21wma that historically define bull/bear markets. This left us somewhat surprised as several (including me) think this cycle is not over.

@therationalroot
The sell-pressure from China is real. Asia’s largest exchange, Huobi, has closed OTC and exchange transactions. Many people have been forced to sell their #bitcoin  because they are worried they won’t be able to trade in the future.
Huobi's net position change red past months:

https://twitter.com/therationalroot/status/1472240875329650693?s=21

@therationalroot
While Huobi has been discontinued and is quite thorough, Binance will be partially cleared at the end of the year. The ok exchange has not yet issued an announcement on the clearing.
Binance's net position change recently red (likely because of China):
https://twitter.com/therationalroot/status/1472240881675628546?s=21


@therationalroot
If we compare this to Kraken, which is mostly active in US and Europe, we can see that they are clearly Buying The Dip. ✊

https://twitter.com/therationalroot/status/1472240886629105665?s=21

@therationalroot
Selling seems to be decelerating, possibly because Huobi already halted. Likely as of January most of this sell-pressure should dissolve. A continuation of the bull market could be expected then.
https://twitter.com/therationalroot/status/1472240897265782785?s=21

[shahzadafzal]

Dedicated to a WO family… including Proudhon… May be we can meet up in a metaverse one day.

[BitcoinBunny]

Bitcoin ‘may not last that much longer,’ academic warns
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/17/bitcoin-may-not-last-that-much-longer-academic-warns.html

Message: You hear that Average Joe? It's not going to be around much longer. Stay the fk away from Bitcoin!

“Given that bitcoin is not serving well as a medium of exchange, I don’t think it’s going to have any fundamental value other than whatever investor’s faith leads it to have,” Prasad said.

Uh...that's the very definition of sound money, you dumbass. 

He's probably just pissed because he probably invested in Dogecoin whilst it was at ATH and even Elon Musk can no longer pump that useless piece of crap.

[marcus_of_augustus]

Bitcoin ‘may not last that much longer,’ academic warns
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/17/bitcoin-may-not-last-that-much-longer-academic-warns.html

Message: You hear that Average Joe? It's not going to be around much longer. Stay the fk away from Bitcoin!

“Given that bitcoin is not serving well as a medium of exchange, I don’t think it’s going to have any fundamental value other than whatever investor’s faith leads it to have,” Prasad said.

Uh...that's the very definition of sound money, you dumbass. 

He's probably just pissed because he probably invested in Dogecoin whilst it was at ATH and even Elon Musk can no longer pump that useless piece of crap.

.... no it's a shitcoin worse than doge even, he's clearly shilling for the overt pyramid scam called US fed res debt notes

[BitcoinBunny]

Bitcoin ‘may not last that much longer,’ academic warns
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/17/bitcoin-may-not-last-that-much-longer-academic-warns.html

Message: You hear that Average Joe? It's not going to be around much longer. Stay the fk away from Bitcoin!

“Given that bitcoin is not serving well as a medium of exchange, I don’t think it’s going to have any fundamental value other than whatever investor’s faith leads it to have,” Prasad said.

Uh...that's the very definition of sound money, you dumbass. 

He's probably just pissed because he probably invested in Dogecoin whilst it was at ATH and even Elon Musk can no longer pump that useless piece of crap.

.... no it's a shitcoin worse than doge even, he's clearly shilling for the overt pyramid scam called US fed res debt notes

 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Biodom]

By the looks of it, and with some perky shitcoins acting up (driven by their corporate hedge fund sponsors), the only way to flush them out is a bearish period.
If bitcoin will be flat to up, we are going to lose dominance, which is bad starting at 40-41% now.
Beforehand, we never went below 36%.
Maybe it means that we about to outperform, but by the look of a few coins with a concentrated funds position, it seems less likely, unless something truly positive happens.
Gary G. was instrumental in curtailing our run so far, it seems, with no-spot-ETF situation.

[JayJuanGee]

A end of year santa rally would be nice right about now, not liking these 40s, 50s is where its at.

I think it is unlikely. This end-of-month is the mother of all end-of-month events, and the landscape has already bears spotted around. Endure my friend, endure. I promise the reward will be sweet.

Well let me remind u not so long ago everybody and his dog was waiting for the moonshot, new ATHs and six digits. So did it happen? Honey badger doesnt care. It doesnt do what everybody expects it to do.  

Actually more frequently it does the opposite...

She likes to go against expectations: I concur, serveria.
I guess you know I'm a permabull (although possibly not quite in your league )

However, keeping rational expectations, as in assigning fair looking probabilities to different outcomes, is the name of the game - at least for me, if I want to keep my feet on the ground and whatever's left of my mental sanity.

Reason says the short term landscape isn't too bullish. I think we'll have to grunt our way through 2021.
What about the bull? Still in place is my gut feeling. Sophisticated SOMA analysis and all. Ready to be proven wrong of course...

Of course, those of us who have been pinned to the BTC price charts attempting to figure out what is going on for several years likely appreciate that if bearwhales can push the BTC price down for a long enough time and keep it down, then they no longer need to use their coins.. so for example they might go onto exchanges and dump 10k or more coins, and maybe get some help from some other bearwhales, momentum traders and even the liquidating of longs, so once they get some of that momentum, they rely somewhat on the normies to be scared out of some or all of their BTC to keep the price down long enough in order that they can get back all of their dumped coins for less than they dumped them at.. and surely there are vested fiat bearwhales who may well not give too many shits if the whole dumping of BTC comes at a loss because such dumping of BTC gives them profits in fiat spheres... but still the questions remain how low they can push it and how long can they keep it down.

There does seem to be some potential benefit to keep the BTC price down through the remaining of the year and perhaps for a while into 2022... and so they could shake a few more normies out of their coins.. so maybe it does not cost so much to keep it down for a short period of time.. less than 2 more weeks^tm now... so maybe we could expect the BTC price to stay down for the remaining of 2021.. not guaranteed but surely does not seem unreasonable when we are so close.. so then the next million dollar (bitcoin) question would be for how long into 2022 are these bearwhales ready, willing and able to keep the BTC price down?  the whole month of January?  the whole 1st quarter?... surely difficult to know.. difficult to know..

One thing is sure (and even reflected in your post d_eddie) ... we have been in some kind of similar disheartening place before, and are we less disheartened this time?  if we are less disheartened this time, how much more downity will cause us to become equally disheartened as previously or more disheartened?  is it possible? 

[AlcoHoDL]

There's another full moon tomorrow (or the 19th in the morning depending on where you live) and while this isn't trading advice, it looks as though there might just be something to all this talk of bitcoin "mooning" after all.  A little hopium chart for your perusal:

Just for comparison, here's the exact same chart, but with the positions of the full-moon / new-moon icons flipped on the vertical axis. Note that the horizontal locations of the icons are still correct (i.e., the icons still represent the correct definitions for full moon / new moon).

[dragonvslinux]

$45K Buy Wall growth update from Coinbase Pro. Earlier was around 550, now around 700 BTC. Still thinking this one can hold:



If price can't soon reclaim the 200 Day MA ($47K), that is currently being rejected by sellers, then this lowers the chances however.
Price closing below the 50 Week MA around $48K tomorrow will otherwise likely lead to lower prices, $44K, $42K, $40K, etc.

~Buy wall 8 hours ago previously at 550

Otherwise starting to see a bullish descending wedge form on 4hr chart, shifting away from the bear flag pattern, with consistent failures of convincingly breaking below $46K, as selling volume reduces.
There is also bullish divergence on the Daily and 4hr time-frames now, mainly due to the failure of sellers pushing price lower, but also remains unconvincing until price can move up.



It has the necessary confirmations of a minimum of 3 touch-points on the support and resistance trend-lines, but despite the bullish bias, still requires confirmation of a breakout to the upside.
Price will need break above $48K for confirmation (where the 50 Week MA lies). Selling pressure remains strong at higher levels though. A short squeeze would really help around now.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation