Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

shitty ta with a shitty flag on a shitty looking chart  

Santa: HO HO HO..and what do you want for Christmas little man?

Little Johnny: Please dump it sub $30k and lower over the next bear market cycle so I can buy the dip.

Santa:  ....

merry fucking hoho you hoes


#dyor

D

#stronghands

Those dumps are getting smaller, volume decreasing...
Can't be too long until we're bottoming out. Then maybe a final little capitulation dump, and we are where we were in 2019, just at least 10 times higher.
2023 might get unexpectedly interesting, in a positive way  

Wow...

some peeps already skipping ahead to 2023..

jeezus fuggin crist....

I mean... I am not really that much of one to focusing on the various difficulties to predict short-term doldrums.. but presuming away 2022 as if it were going to be too boring seems a kind of fallacy of assigning too much certainty to the short-to-medium term as well, no?

It's like presuming too much about nothing interesting to happen in 2022... and seems to me still that so much interesting can happen in 2022.. even if it ends up being boring, the potentiality (and even likelihood for interesting) is still there (until it is not)..  ..

I will actually assert that in some sense, there is some interesting aspects to our current dip that has so far reached 39% in regards to whether more weak hands can be shaken out and how long this can last.  Will we have a break to the upside or to the downside... interesting.. interesting... interesting.. and another thing, can we retain sideways for the remainder of the calendar year (sure seems reasonably possible), but how long can we retain sideways into 2022.. can it even last a whole month, or are we going to get a quarter out of sideways... Can you guys even imagine a whole fucking quarter of sideways with the level of tension that we seem to have currently?  I have a lot of doubts that sideways is really sustainable at these prices (let's say between $38k and $55k) for that long, but hey what do I know?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[OutOfMemory]

Those dumps are getting smaller, volume decreasing...
Can't be too long until we're bottoming out. Then maybe a final little capitulation dump, and we are where we were in 2019, just at least 10 times higher.
2023 might get unexpectedly interesting, in a positive way  

Wow...

some peeps already skipping ahead to 2023..

jeezus fuggin crist....

I mean... I am not really that much of one to focusing on the various difficulties to predict short-term doldrums.. but presuming away 2022 as if it were going to be too boring seems a kind of fallacy of assigning too much certainty to the short-to-medium term as well, no?

It's like presuming too much about nothing interesting to happen in 2022... and seems to me still that so much interesting can happen in 2022.. even if it ends up being boring, the potentiality (and even likelihood for interesting) is still there (until it is not)..  ..

I will actually assert that in some sense, there is some interesting aspects to our current dip that has so far reached 39% in regards to whether more weak hands can be shaken out and how long this can last.  Will we have a break to the upside or to the downside... interesting.. interesting... interesting.. and another thing, can we retain sideways for the remainder of the calendar year (sure seems reasonably possible), but how long can we retain sideways into 2022.. can it even last a whole month, or are we going to get a quarter out of sideways... Can you guys even imagine a whole fucking quarter of sideways with the level of tension that we seem to have currently?  I have a lot of doubts that sideways is really sustainable at these prices (let's say between $38k and $55k) for that long, but hey what do I know?

Noooo  
I don't say 2022 will be negative or boring at all, but as cycles are getting delayed (ATH wise), and hodlers are bravely accumulating at dips, many bearish hands in china and the east were already shaken out, the reasoning of (projected) gains in 2023, when everybody and his pet is expecting a bear market, would not be that unrealistic.
If we ATH 2022 again, the correction may go way less deep than expected (with -80% as a reference), followed by gradually rising in 2023. We didn't have that before, so it's likely to happen, since king daddy doesn't care...

EDIT: Call my way of approach something like  "unprobabilistic mode" or else, IDC 

[shahzadafzal]

Bitcoin is already changing lives.

Well some will call them lucky but I will call them “smart”.

[Hhampuz]

Bitcoin is already changing lives.

Well some will call them lucky but I will call them “smart”.

The sad thing about this is that yeah, some of them were smart but also forced into finding other solutions while their govt. fucked them over. However, there are likely millions of people there who are just shit of luck as they maybe didn't know/never heard of bitcoin

[serveria.com]

Bitcoin is already changing lives.

Well some will call them lucky but I will call them “smart”.

What happened to their Petrocoin or whatever it was called? 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[shahzadafzal]

Satisfaction on his face is priceless…!!!

[JayJuanGee]

Those dumps are getting smaller, volume decreasing...
Can't be too long until we're bottoming out. Then maybe a final little capitulation dump, and we are where we were in 2019, just at least 10 times higher.
2023 might get unexpectedly interesting, in a positive way  

Wow...

some peeps already skipping ahead to 2023..

jeezus fuggin crist....

I mean... I am not really that much of one to focusing on the various difficulties to predict short-term doldrums.. but presuming away 2022 as if it were going to be too boring seems a kind of fallacy of assigning too much certainty to the short-to-medium term as well, no?

It's like presuming too much about nothing interesting to happen in 2022... and seems to me still that so much interesting can happen in 2022.. even if it ends up being boring, the potentiality (and even likelihood for interesting) is still there (until it is not)..  ..

I will actually assert that in some sense, there is some interesting aspects to our current dip that has so far reached 39% in regards to whether more weak hands can be shaken out and how long this can last.  Will we have a break to the upside or to the downside... interesting.. interesting... interesting.. and another thing, can we retain sideways for the remainder of the calendar year (sure seems reasonably possible), but how long can we retain sideways into 2022.. can it even last a whole month, or are we going to get a quarter out of sideways... Can you guys even imagine a whole fucking quarter of sideways with the level of tension that we seem to have currently?  I have a lot of doubts that sideways is really sustainable at these prices (let's say between $38k and $55k) for that long, but hey what do I know?

Noooo  
I don't say 2022 will be negative or boring at all, but as cycles are getting delayed (ATH wise), and hodlers are bravely accumulating at dips, many bearish hands in china and the east were already shaken out, the reasoning of (projected) gains in 2023, when everybody and his pet is expecting a bear market, would not be that unrealistic.
If we ATH 2022 again, the correction may go way less deep than expected (with -80% as a reference), followed by gradually rising in 2023. We didn't have that before, so it's likely to happen, since king daddy doesn't care...

EDIT: Call my way of approach something like  "unprobabilistic mode" or else, IDC  

OK... Fair enough regarding the unprobablistic way of characterizing your own framing of the matter, but still when we talk about a variety of possible unprobablistic scenarios it's like just throwing anything out there, and should we really be preparing our minds in those kinds of directions, even if our BTC portfolio preparations might not match our psychology.

Or wouldn't it be true that if you keep thinking in those kinds of (what I believe to be both unprobabalistic and negative) ways, subsequently your mind may well end up influencing your financial preparations?

Just does not sound healthy to me.. and surely, to go from the attempts to assert less probable scenarios into the assertion of way out there scenarios.

In other words, it seems way more reasonable to me to consider that if our most-likely scenario would have been to have been having the peaking out of the BTC price in this quarter, but if it does not happen, then we may well go to the 1st quarter of 2022 or the second quarter or the third quarter, and so it hardly makes any sense to skip those more likely scenarios of having some kind of delayed peak rather than completely snapping out of the matter and go along with the fact that "everyone is starting to think that we might be entering into a bear market."   Since when did it matter that everyone is starting to think that we might be entering into a bear market.  I am sure the same was true in 2013 with the silk road baloney and then all of a sudden. BBBBAaaaaaammmmm.  similarly with the various fork wars in 2017 and the various tragedies and Armageddons.. that was not exactly smooth, and then BBBBAaaaaaammmmm.

I just don't buy it.... yeah of course, you are even conceding that we might not have any kind of extended draw down, but why do we even need anything like that to take place?  We had 56% and we had 39%.. so why would there be any kind of need for more, even if everyone is thinking that we might need more... blah blah blah.

I am not attached to any kind of have to happen sort of blow off top is coming, but there aren't really any meaningful and significants\ signs that it is not, except for some bit of delay and a few pull backs along the way.. sure the pull backs do not look exactly like earlier pull backs, but so what?  They don't need to look exactly the same.  They are still in the same ballpark as similar enough to earlier kinds of periods of pullbacks, and all we really have so far is delay..

Sure, I will admit that throughout almost the whole of 2018, until that November collapse, I did hang onto the idea that there could be a 2013-like double top, so in that sense I was wrong about the "could be" and/or that the 2017 bull run had actually ended in December 2017.. but still even that was another more than 6x price increase (from the august/september foundation) that had already been a more than 10x increase from our $250-ish 2015 starting point.

So even if we take $4,200 for our 2019 starting point and we get a bit more than 2x to get us to the $10k September 2020 starting point, we ONLY have a 7x increase and some pretty decent sized corrections along the way to say the 56% from May/June/July and our current 39% one that has not yet been resolved regarding whether it is over.. I don't buy that those lame-ass whimpy theories are very likely to play out.. even if they surely are in the cards so I am not saying that the whimpy-ass theories are not possible.. but I am saying:  I don't buy it.. I don't buy it... .. because it just seems to be hanging onto negative scenarios for the mere sake of it.. when things are still looking pretty damned good in terms of a set up for another exponential top.. I mean one of the great things about exponential tops remains the fact that shorts keep forming to believe that it is over.. at $5k then at $8k then at $10k and so on and so on... and sure you can say that we already had that in the ride up to $65k (the first time around) and our second visit to $69k. .but I am not going to buy it.. not yet.. I am not going to appreciate that you are describing any kind of likely scenario.. even if it ends up happening.. I will say that you had merely been lucky with that nonsense whimpy ass description that bitcoin was going to be lame through 2022... and wait til 2023..

Call me a bulltard if you like (and I don't even think that I am really that stuck on bullish ideations), but even with your explanation, clarification and characterizing of your thoughts on the matter, the "nothing is gonna happen until 2023" way of thinking about the real and likely dynamics of our lillie fiend makes wwwwweeeeeee little senses to yours truly.

[El duderino_]

Satisfaction on his face is priceless…!!!

Double post on my face 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[OutOfMemory]

OK... Fair enough regarding the unprobablistic way of characterizing your own framing of the matter, but still when we talk about a variety of possible unprobablistic scenarios it's like just throwing anything out there, and should we really be preparing our minds in those kinds of ways, even if our portfolio preparations might not match.

Or wouldn't it be true that your mind may well end up influencing your financial preparations?

Just does not sound healthy to me.. and surely, to go from the attempts to assert less probable scenarios into the assertion of way out there scenarios.

In other words, it seems way more reasonable to me to consider that if our most-likely scenario would have been to have been having the peaking out of the BTC price in this quarter, but if it does not happen, then we may well go to the 1st quarter of 2022 or the second quarter or the third quarter, and so it hardly makes any sense to skip those more likely scenarios of having some kind of delayed peak rather than completely snapping out of the matter and go along with the fact that "everyone is starting to think that we might be entering into a bear market."   Since when did it matter that everyone is starting to think that we might be entering into a bear market.  I am sure the same was true in 2013 with the silk road baloney and then all of a sudden. BBBBAaaaaaammmmm.  similarly with the various fork wars in 2017 and the various tragedies and Armageddons.. that was not exactly smooth, and then BBBBAaaaaaammmmm.

I just don't buy it.... yeah of course, you are even conceding that we might not have any kind of extended draw down, but why do we even need anything like that to take place?  We had 56% and we had 39%.. so why would there be any kind of need for more, even if everyone is thinking that we might need more... blah blah blah.

I am not attached to any kind of have to happen sort of blow off top is coming, but there aren't really any meaningful and significants\ signs that it is not, except for some bit of delay and a few pull backs along the way.. sure the pull backs do not look exactly like earlier pull backs, but so what?  They don't need to look exactly the same.  They are still in the same ballpark as similar enough to earlier kinds of periods of pullbacks, and all we really have so far is delay..

Sure, I will admit that throughout almost the whole of 2018, until that November collapse, I did hang onto the idea that there could be a 2013-like double top, so in that sense I was wrong about the "could be" and/or that the 2017 bull run had actually ended in December 2017.. but still even that was another more than 6x price increase (from the august/september foundation) that had already been a more than 10x increase from our $250-ish 2015 starting point.

So even if we take $4,200 for our 2019 starting point and we get a bit more than 2x to get us to the $10k September 2020 starting point, we ONLY have a 7x increase and some pretty decent sized corrections along the way to say the 56% from May/June/July and our current 39% one that has not yet been resolved regarding whether it is over.. I don't buy that those lame-ass whimpy theories are very likely to play out.. even if they surely are in the cards so I am not saying that the whimpy-ass theories are not possible.. but I am saying:  I don't buy it.. I don't buy it... .. because it just seems to be hanging onto negative scenarios for the mere sake of it.. when things are still looking pretty damned good in terms of a set up for another exponential top.. I mean one of the great things about exponential tops remains the fact that shorts keep forming to believe that it is over.. at $5k then at $8k then at $10k and so on and so on... and sure you can say that we already had that in the ride up to $65k (the first time around) and our second visit to $69k. .but I am not going to buy it.. not yet.. I am not going to appreciate that you are describing any kind of likely scenario.. even if it ends up happening.. I will say that you had merely been lucky with that nonsense whimpy ass description that bitcoin was going to be lame through 2022... and wait til 2023..

Call me a bulltard if you like (and I don't even think that I am really that stuck on bullish ideations), but the nothing is gonna happen until 2023 outlook makes wwwwweeeeeee little sense to me.

What i tried to say is that China and eastern markets were holding, mining and trading big amounts of bitcoin, in relation to other countries. These are just exiting, or have exited already under the pressure of the chinese government's ban. We're now somewhere near the bottom of this exit, imho. Hashrate has recovered globally, supply is sort of fixed, exchange illiquidity rising is a fact. The amounts of fiat to be injected to go over the 2021 top is substantial, even more so because many took their chance accumulating while the knifes (china #1 mid 2021, china #2 recently) were falling. Fresh money will come in when the bottom signal is clear. But it will take time to shift the needed amount of dollars from other markets or stores of value to Bitcoin.
I explicitly believe that there will be new highs in 2022, but i also have an eye on exchange illiquidity, which would make sense to me to strike somewhere in 2023.
You may call it a triple-top. The unprobabilistic part is the fact we didn't have this formation before, which is supporting my idea (or vision) of said outplay.
And it could be the slow squeeze of illiquidity that will make the 2022 blow-off less steep, and the liquidity crunch in 2023 more unexpected from the now terms of view.

Of course, i would be a moron if i would only believe in this one scenario and not prepare for other possibilities (which are more likely to play out by probability), even more so reading your past postings and ignoring their message to develop a flexible strategy, or strategies.  
But since this is an inverse approach to the ole school probability type of reasoning, i would not be surprised if future happenings would come near that.
Just mainly because of SOMA fundamentals. And Murphy's Law...

Short version: Bullish on 2022, but not suprised if 2023 gets even more bullish because of the effect of the supply-crunch, when the majority would expect the slow fade out of the bear market. As you know, i plan to hodl the vast majority of my stash for years and decades to come, i will be fine whatever will come.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

...........~~~~
Short version: Bullish on 2022, but not suprised if 2023 gets even more bullish because of the effect of the supply-crunch, when the majority would expect the slow fade out of the bear market. ........~~~.

I will admit that your further fleshing out of some of your rationale behind these matters does help me to understand the reasons that you are proclaiming for your position a wee bit.. so I did not conclude that you are just saying the same thing over again.. but still we seem to diverge in aspects of your way of assigning probabilities to how long this particular cycle could play out..

So, largely I would speculate that you are assigning quite a bit higher odds than me to this particular bull cycle having the potential or probability to drag out past the third quarter of 2022...

I will admit that I had even tweaked my own estimations a bit to attempt to account for some higher odds that we could get a peak in the BTC price in or after the 2nd quarter of 2022... but still I am not sure if my SOMA attempts at assigning odds had been very good because for some reason my December 16 updates to the odds that I had assigned ONLY placed peaking in or after the 3rd quarter of 2022 at 13%, and my November 4 post had placed 12% odds on such predicted phenomena.. which kind of goes to show that I may well have to work a bit harder on my own SOMA assignment of odds attempts.  

In other words, all of the events between November 4 and December 16 (including the passage of critical^tm time), only got me to move up 1% in my own SOMA assignment of odds for the BTC price peak of this cycle to come in or after the 3rd quarter of 2022.. - causing me to contemplate whether my own thinking about BTC cycle dynamics and the influence of four-year fractal dynamics could well be a wee bit too rigid for my own good?  perhaps?  perhaps?

[serveria.com]

I explicitly believe that there will be new highs in 2022, but i also have an eye on exchange illiquidity, which would make sense to me to strike somewhere in 2023.
You may call it a triple-top. The unprobabilistic part is the fact we didn't have this formation before, which is supporting my idea (or vision) of said outplay.
And it could be the slow squeeze of illiquidity that will make the 2022 blow-off less steep, and the liquidity crunch in 2023 more unexpected from the now terms of view.

Of course, i would be a moron if i would only believe in this one scenario and not prepare for other possibilities (which are more likely to play out by probability), even more so reading your past postings and ignoring their message to develop a flexible strategy, or strategies.  
But since this is an inverse approach to the ole school probability type of reasoning, i would not be surprised if future happenings would come near that.
Just mainly because of SOMA fundamentals. And Murphy's Law...

Short version: Bullish on 2022, but not suprised if 2023 gets even more bullish because of the effect of the supply-crunch, when the majority would expect the slow fade out of the bear market. As you know, i plan to hodl the vast majority of my stash for years and decades to come, i will be fine whatever will come.

This scenario looks pretty realistic to me. Triple top is something we haven't witnessed before but why not? I mean BTC can't be that predictable to follow the same pattern over and over again. Back in October one of my nocoiner friends mentioned something about taking a loan and buying BTC as it's bound to skyrocket in December. Easy-peasy, piece of cake, no-brainer. That's when I understood moonshot is not going to happen most probably.  

[Biodom]

Daily Driver: PAID IN FULL?

I don’t know does it even mean?

means it needs repairs every day that cost more than book value of the vehicle? ive owned winter beater vehicles like that. i didnt even bother changing the oil on many of my cars because i knew it would fall apart way before the engine would die. and i was pretty surprised how long some engines lasted on sludge (225 cid slant six, damn things are almost unkillable. i had a few)

When I just started driving, I bought an old car from a guy for $300, lol. He just wanted to get rid of it.
I drove it for a year, then got into a minor accident and after that the car started using one jug of oil per grocery trip a few miles away.
Needless to say that I had to sent it out to the junkyard, but felt bad about it...of course, it was the first that I actually owned.
Memories...

[AlcoHoDL]

OK... Fair enough regarding the unprobablistic way of characterizing your own framing of the matter, but still when we talk about a variety of possible unprobablistic scenarios it's like just throwing anything out there, and should we really be preparing our minds in those kinds of ways, even if our portfolio preparations might not match.

Or wouldn't it be true that your mind may well end up influencing your financial preparations?

Just does not sound healthy to me.. and surely, to go from the attempts to assert less probable scenarios into the assertion of way out there scenarios.

In other words, it seems way more reasonable to me to consider that if our most-likely scenario would have been to have been having the peaking out of the BTC price in this quarter, but if it does not happen, then we may well go to the 1st quarter of 2022 or the second quarter or the third quarter, and so it hardly makes any sense to skip those more likely scenarios of having some kind of delayed peak rather than completely snapping out of the matter and go along with the fact that "everyone is starting to think that we might be entering into a bear market."   Since when did it matter that everyone is starting to think that we might be entering into a bear market.  I am sure the same was true in 2013 with the silk road baloney and then all of a sudden. BBBBAaaaaaammmmm.  similarly with the various fork wars in 2017 and the various tragedies and Armageddons.. that was not exactly smooth, and then BBBBAaaaaaammmmm.

I just don't buy it.... yeah of course, you are even conceding that we might not have any kind of extended draw down, but why do we even need anything like that to take place?  We had 56% and we had 39%.. so why would there be any kind of need for more, even if everyone is thinking that we might need more... blah blah blah.

I am not attached to any kind of have to happen sort of blow off top is coming, but there aren't really any meaningful and significants\ signs that it is not, except for some bit of delay and a few pull backs along the way.. sure the pull backs do not look exactly like earlier pull backs, but so what?  They don't need to look exactly the same.  They are still in the same ballpark as similar enough to earlier kinds of periods of pullbacks, and all we really have so far is delay..

Sure, I will admit that throughout almost the whole of 2018, until that November collapse, I did hang onto the idea that there could be a 2013-like double top, so in that sense I was wrong about the "could be" and/or that the 2017 bull run had actually ended in December 2017.. but still even that was another more than 6x price increase (from the august/september foundation) that had already been a more than 10x increase from our $250-ish 2015 starting point.

So even if we take $4,200 for our 2019 starting point and we get a bit more than 2x to get us to the $10k September 2020 starting point, we ONLY have a 7x increase and some pretty decent sized corrections along the way to say the 56% from May/June/July and our current 39% one that has not yet been resolved regarding whether it is over.. I don't buy that those lame-ass whimpy theories are very likely to play out.. even if they surely are in the cards so I am not saying that the whimpy-ass theories are not possible.. but I am saying:  I don't buy it.. I don't buy it... .. because it just seems to be hanging onto negative scenarios for the mere sake of it.. when things are still looking pretty damned good in terms of a set up for another exponential top.. I mean one of the great things about exponential tops remains the fact that shorts keep forming to believe that it is over.. at $5k then at $8k then at $10k and so on and so on... and sure you can say that we already had that in the ride up to $65k (the first time around) and our second visit to $69k. .but I am not going to buy it.. not yet.. I am not going to appreciate that you are describing any kind of likely scenario.. even if it ends up happening.. I will say that you had merely been lucky with that nonsense whimpy ass description that bitcoin was going to be lame through 2022... and wait til 2023..

Call me a bulltard if you like (and I don't even think that I am really that stuck on bullish ideations), but the nothing is gonna happen until 2023 outlook makes wwwwweeeeeee little sense to me.

What i tried to say is that China and eastern markets were holding, mining and trading big amounts of bitcoin, in relation to other countries. These are just exiting, or have exited already under the pressure of the chinese government's ban. We're now somewhere near the bottom of this exit, imho. Hashrate has recovered globally, supply is sort of fixed, exchange illiquidity rising is a fact. The amounts of fiat to be injected to go over the 2021 top is substantial, even more so because many took their chance accumulating while the knifes (china #1 mid 2021, china #2 recently) were falling. Fresh money will come in when the bottom signal is clear. But it will take time to shift the needed amount of dollars from other markets or stores of value to Bitcoin.
I explicitly believe that there will be new highs in 2022, but i also have an eye on exchange illiquidity, which would make sense to me to strike somewhere in 2023.
You may call it a triple-top. The unprobabilistic part is the fact we didn't have this formation before, which is supporting my idea (or vision) of said outplay.
And it could be the slow squeeze of illiquidity that will make the 2022 blow-off less steep, and the liquidity crunch in 2023 more unexpected from the now terms of view.

Of course, i would be a moron if i would only believe in this one scenario and not prepare for other possibilities (which are more likely to play out by probability), even more so reading your past postings and ignoring their message to develop a flexible strategy, or strategies.  
But since this is an inverse approach to the ole school probability type of reasoning, i would not be surprised if future happenings would come near that.
Just mainly because of SOMA fundamentals. And Murphy's Law...

Short version: Bullish on 2022, but not suprised if 2023 gets even more bullish because of the effect of the supply-crunch, when the majority would expect the slow fade out of the bear market. As you know, i plan to hodl the vast majority of my stash for years and decades to come, i will be fine whatever will come.

I like your analysis, thanks. I also firmly believe 2022 will be a good year for Bitcoin, certainly not like 2018/19. I believe this time things are different from the previous Halving, there are bigger players involved, there is wider exposure, there's an approved ETF, countries using BTC as official currency. Things are looking up. But I don't want to rush things, let it come as and when it may, but it will. It's a when, not an if. The main things for me are 1. to own corn (most of us do, those who don't should buy ASAP, as it's currently dirt cheap but not for long), 2. to HoDL it, 3. to avoid mindrust events, 4. to expect and be prepared for up as well as down, 5. to think/plan long-term, as in 5+ years from now.

BTW, I really like the ring of your phrase: "the vast majority of my stash"... Makes it sound like hundreds or thousands of coins. As for my own stash, I'd just say "most of my stash", somehow it sounds more fitting to its size.

[Biodom]

I explicitly believe that there will be new highs in 2022, but i also have an eye on exchange illiquidity, which would make sense to me to strike somewhere in 2023.
You may call it a triple-top. The unprobabilistic part is the fact we didn't have this formation before, which is supporting my idea (or vision) of said outplay.
And it could be the slow squeeze of illiquidity that will make the 2022 blow-off less steep, and the liquidity crunch in 2023 more unexpected from the now terms of view.

Of course, i would be a moron if i would only believe in this one scenario and not prepare for other possibilities (which are more likely to play out by probability), even more so reading your past postings and ignoring their message to develop a flexible strategy, or strategies.  
But since this is an inverse approach to the ole school probability type of reasoning, i would not be surprised if future happenings would come near that.
Just mainly because of SOMA fundamentals. And Murphy's Law...

Short version: Bullish on 2022, but not suprised if 2023 gets even more bullish because of the effect of the supply-crunch, when the majority would expect the slow fade out of the bear market. As you know, i plan to hodl the vast majority of my stash for years and decades to come, i will be fine whatever will come.

This scenario looks pretty realistic to me. Triple top is something we haven't witnessed before but why not? I mean BTC can't be that predictable to follow the same pattern over and over again. Back in October one of my nocoiner friends mentioned something about taking a loan and buying BTC as it's bound to skyrocket in December. Easy-peasy, piece of cake, no-brainer. That's when I understood moonshot is not going to happen most probably.  

Sorry, there are no triple tops or triple bottoms...with >90% probability.

[serveria.com]

I explicitly believe that there will be new highs in 2022, but i also have an eye on exchange illiquidity, which would make sense to me to strike somewhere in 2023.
You may call it a triple-top. The unprobabilistic part is the fact we didn't have this formation before, which is supporting my idea (or vision) of said outplay.
And it could be the slow squeeze of illiquidity that will make the 2022 blow-off less steep, and the liquidity crunch in 2023 more unexpected from the now terms of view.

Of course, i would be a moron if i would only believe in this one scenario and not prepare for other possibilities (which are more likely to play out by probability), even more so reading your past postings and ignoring their message to develop a flexible strategy, or strategies.  
But since this is an inverse approach to the ole school probability type of reasoning, i would not be surprised if future happenings would come near that.
Just mainly because of SOMA fundamentals. And Murphy's Law...

Short version: Bullish on 2022, but not suprised if 2023 gets even more bullish because of the effect of the supply-crunch, when the majority would expect the slow fade out of the bear market. As you know, i plan to hodl the vast majority of my stash for years and decades to come, i will be fine whatever will come.

This scenario looks pretty realistic to me. Triple top is something we haven't witnessed before but why not? I mean BTC can't be that predictable to follow the same pattern over and over again. Back in October one of my nocoiner friends mentioned something about taking a loan and buying BTC as it's bound to skyrocket in December. Easy-peasy, piece of cake, no-brainer. That's when I understood moonshot is not going to happen most probably.  

Sorry, there are no triple tops or triple bottoms...with >90% probability.

Well I'm not a trader or a TA person I'm not sure if it exists or not (well it does in theory but I'm not sure about RL) I just used this term to make it clear there's going to be a third top (wave) going considerably higher than 2 previous ones. If you're good at TA you can come up with a correct term for that. 

[OutOfMemory]

BTW, I really like the ring of your phrase: "the vast majority of my stash"... Makes it sound like hundreds or thousands of coins. As for my own stash, I'd just say "most of my stash", somehow it sounds more fitting to its size.

 

I was aware that i have to describe it in a way which should not present any clues about the absolute size.
And it seems to work  

On the "fish" scale i'm pretty low. But it's "better than getting a brick to the head", as some would say in my culture, means it could always be worse
  

So the stash is more like a stashy