Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[OutOfMemory]

HODL, last hopium .

Don;t know why but It seems I cannot post images.

up ya merits/rank to post pics.

EDIT: Or get quoted every time 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[OutOfMemory]

Had to buy via broker at $44.100 (converted & rounded) because no more fiat at exchange.
Now it's back to sit tight & assess- mode again  

EDIT: /me Playing the (nanostrategy) Saylor game 

[JayJuanGee]

Good day.
Just snapped some Sats at $45.600. Got some more decremental orders below, but maybe they'll never get filled.

I hope not.

Yeah, me too,  but these $45.5k-ish levels turned out to be a sweet buying zone.

EDIT: Hit $45.600 and $45.580, after clearing a $45.500 order.  Price can now moon again, thanks  

EDIT2: Reason of this order was a tweet where the author said that $45.500 buywalls would be set up by whales just to be cleared when everybody thinks this is solid support. The author has a history of wrong calls, so i took the chance to set some money right there.

Oh, that irony  
At least some more sats on my wallet.
But yeah...  Still

I don't even dare mentioning that down-before-** mantra, if may turn against me  

https://twitter.com/lawmaster/status/1478764142957846531?s=21

Looks like the internet in Kazakhstan went down and took around 20% of the hash rate with it. Reason for this little dump perhaps?

Yeah, they banned mining today :/
I forgot about that and should have waited for the real dip. maaaan 

I am not going to proclaim that events in Kazakhstan are completely irrelevant, but this difficulty period seems to so far be hardly affected.  '

In other words, are we trying to find significance in something that is likely NOT very significant.. at least, so far.   

Recall that our last difficulty adjustment occurred on 12/25, so the next one is tentatively anticipated for 1/7 (a bit more than 48 hours).....   I recall seeing an anticipated negative difficulty adjustment about several days into this difficulty period, and currently the anticipated difficulty adjustment is approaching 1% to the positive.  So even if this period ends up flat or slightly negative, seems like a BIG SO WHAT... at least currently... or maybe it is too soon to determine?

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator

[Biodom]

Some analysis..may happen and may not:

With Nasdaq up above 20% and S&P 500 up well above 20% as well, historical numbers suggest a continuation of about +10% for regular stonks for 2022.

Bitcoin should be ahead maybe 20-30% as it is more volatile. 46K plus 20-30% is 55-60K by the end of 2022.

However, during a year of fast economic growth and some tightening, there is often a Spring weakness to the extent of 10-15% in S&P 500.

Nasdaq is already doing something on the down side, S&P would likely follow.


Therefore, btc might also have an initial drop to 32-36K (if we break 42K). Reaching 42K is pretty much a given, sorry.

Stopping at 32-36K would establish a higher low from where we can launch to 55-60K toward the EOY.

TL;DR A skewed V for 2022 (with faster relatively small down then up, but not ATH).

[OutOfMemory]

Some analysis..may happen and may not:

With Nasdaq up above 20% and S&P 500 up well above 20% as well, historical numbers suggest a continuation of about +10% for regular stonks for 2022.

Bitcoin should be ahead maybe 20-30% as it is more volatile. 46K plus 20-30% is 55-60K by the end of 2022.

However, during a year of fast economic growth and some tightening, there is often a spring weakness to the extent of 10-15% in S&P 500.

Nasdaq is already doing something on the down side, S&P would likely follow.


Therefore, btc might also have an initial drop to 32-36K (if we break 42K). Reaching 42K is pretty much a given, sorry.

Stopping at 32-36K would establish a higher low from where we can launch to 55-60K toward the EOY.

TL;DR A skewed V for 2022 (with faster relatively small down then up, but not ATH).

Yes, i also see $42k as kind of given, but not so early. It should be a long, bearish grind down, i expect a month or two. By then it's still a healthy correction, despite we had $69k recently. I'm fueling up to set buys at these levels, since $44k was checked by today. As always, HODLing in i-dont-care-mode 

[Paashaas]

https://twitter.com/KevinSvenson_/status/1478830735310139394

[serveria.com]

https://twitter.com/lawmaster/status/1478764142957846531?s=21

Looks like the internet in Kazakhstan went down and took around 20% of the hash rate with it. Reason for this little dump perhaps?

Tons of good news have no effect on the price. Every single FUD brings price down singlehandedly.

Right now I'm confused. Not sure what to expect. If we're in a bear, we're falling down too quickly so it's gonna be a really short bear. How much are we down from ATH? Some 40% already?  

[cAPSLOCK]

https://twitter.com/lawmaster/status/1478764142957846531?s=21

Looks like the internet in Kazakhstan went down and took around 20% of the hash rate with it. Reason for this little dump perhaps?

If I am understanding the internet is not the only thing that has gone down there...

[El duderino_]

LOL…. Srry @biodom

But imo everyone goes to fast in flow with the trend

1 week back @49-50 some say ATH close to days later no ATH in 2022

The things I read sometimes  

[El duderino_]

People lose there grasp on sanity way to fast….

Glad I’m not a lesser man in these
Situations….

Please stay WO worthy 

[cAPSLOCK]

So here is some depressing Copium


https://twitter.com/davthewave/status/1478815427987861504

[xhomerx10]

The Fed has signaled it might have to raise interest rates sooner than expected to fight inflation.  This is why bitcoin is down.

 Now we also know why Elon began selling so many shares of his company.

edit: Oh, the Fed's policy meeting took place Dec 14th-15th.  The plebes only found out what they discussed today.

[OutOfMemory]

People lose there grasp on sanity way to fast….

Glad I’m not a lesser man in these
Situations….

Please stay WO worthy 

Patience and focus.
This is what i have learned on WO.

I always remember the price of my first Sats in situations like today. Helps if you were in BTC before 2018.

[Biodom]

LOL…. Srry @biodom

But imo everyone goes to fast in flow with the trend

1 week back @49-50 some say ATH close to days later no ATH in 2022

The things I read sometimes  

huh?
i don't think i was too bullish, but i am not really bearish either as that twitter guy is  .
If we were lower than expected on the up, maybe we would do better than expected on the down...and I would certainly hope so.

[Biodom]

The Fed has signaled it might have to raise interest rates sooner than expected to fight inflation.  This is why bitcoin is down.

 Now we also know why Elon began selling so many shares of his company.

edit: Oh, the Fed's policy meeting took place Dec 14th-15th.  The plebes only found out what they discussed today.

that's all temporary.
with debt loads we have, the 10 year rate above 3% would be near impossible (without a wave of debt delinquencies).
Great point about Elon, though..in fact, many insiders sold quite a bit.

I also agree with SEC in this instance: if you have an established stock selling plan (and most of CEOs have it), you should NOT be able to sell much more on a whim without triggering some penalty, otherwise, it is insider trading, pure and simple.

[xhomerx10]

The Fed has signaled it might have to raise interest rates sooner than expected to fight inflation.  This is why bitcoin is down.

 Now we also know why Elon began selling so many shares of his company.

edit: Oh, the Fed's policy meeting took place Dec 14th-15th.  The plebes only found out what they discussed today.

that's all temporary.
with debt loads we have, the 10 year rate above 3% would be near impossible (without a wave of debt delinquencies).
Great point about Elon, though..in fact, many insiders sold quite a bit.

 I wonder how many congressional members in the US were in a selling mood?

[becoin]

The Fed has signaled it might have to raise interest rates sooner than expected to fight inflation.  

This is all they can do. Signal... They will never raise rates because they can not. Fed is broke!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

So here is some depressing Copium


https://twitter.com/davthewave/status/1478815427987861504

Not a bad point, even though when we are in the midst of a cycle, we are frequently attempting to gauge where we are going, so the point remains uncertain regarding where we are going and how high that might be (or is the UP over), until retrospectively. Surely, similar assessments can be made in terms of either tops or bottoms, so if we might seem to be heading up, then there frequently are going to be questions regarding whether any correction might be short-lived or longer in term, and surely questions regarding how far down it might go..

Remember December 3rd had a bottom of $41,967 (which was 39% from the $69k top on November 9) - however, it appears that we may well be attempting to revisit that $42k area and to see whether support will hold there... and surely we never did get too much of a bounce back from that $41,967 bottom  - if we might call $52k-ish a bounce back that surely was still around 24% higher than the $42k bottom.

So maybe whether we are measuring bottoms to bottoms, tops to tops, or bottoms to top would depend upon what we are trying to analyze and assess.  

I would hate to believe that the ATH of $69k is "in" for this cycle, even though it is possible.  We are going to have to see how far down we go, I suppose, and then surely figure out if the price might be staying down or is there any recovery in this part of where-ever we are at.  I suppose that if some time soon, if we do not continue UP then I might well be cornered into fleshing out some of my downside scenarios (which I prefer not to do, but I will do whatever seems feasible to do in terms of what seem to be decent probabilities regarding where we might be going).

By the way, despite Dave the Wave's seeming denigration of looking at bottom to top, I think that there are a lot of us who have used them to get some ideas about where we might be going in terms of 4-year cycles... and surely, I am not so much into looking at the exact bottom spikes, but instead getting some ideas of foundation bouncing off points... so in 2015 we had the ballpark of $250-ish as our bouncing off point, and I have been tentatively considering 2019 to have around a $4,200 as our bouncing off point, and of course, subsequent BTC price actions and behaviors can end up causing changes in how to view bounding off points and whether some kind of new one had been created.. and the September 2020 bouncing off point of around $10k seems quite useful, even though Dave may well want to proclaim that it is measuring bottoms to tops or some other way of giving less value to what is being attempted to be illustrated by where we came from and where we might be going.

Another point that we should attempt to recognize is that our lovey-dovey 4-year cycle is a framework that should not necessarily be strict in its chronologizing terms, even if it remains amongst the stronger of influential factors that help to motivate attempts to figure out where we came from and where we might be going.