There will be no more large 80-90% decreases in Bitcoin anymore.
Of course, if we do not get any supra $250k or maybe such top (blow-off?) needs to be supra a $650k blow off top, then there is not enough room for a 80-90% correction, but if such a blow-off top were to end up in the $650k to $1.5 million arena in the next year, then I would imagine that something approaching a 80-90% correction would be reasonably within the cards and a subsequent play.
In other words, there is a need to understand the preceding leg of BTC's price movement before prognosticating in absolutes about the subsequent leg....
Sure, maybe you want to proclaim that there is not going to be any blow-off top in the $650k to $1.5 million in the coming year, so sure that could then cause an 80-90% correction to be nearly completely unreasonable..
Even if the odds for a $650k to $1.5 million blow-off top within the coming year is less than 7%-ish (consistent with
my December 16 numbers) I am not going to presume before any of the supra $69k (again going to further ATHs) happen (if it does?), and never is a pretty strong way of framing the matter of BTC's future anticipated price performance.
The next year is critical.
tm - you see what I did there? increased the possible blow-off top timeline... hahahahahahaImho
Big players, institutional players, new people, who ever ….. have had 13years long to buy BTC on the cheap, over the years when BTC have become relevanter it have had serious dips and opportunities enough to buy cheaper, just as one is presented right now.
People whom invested in this apex asset of value are more and more keeping there hands onto it and are less likely to sell on the cheap… I think we will not have extreme low prices, people just have to buy on smaller discounts.
I don't completely disagree with you dude, but I do believe that there is some relevance regarding what normies knew about bitcoin and when they knew it.. and I am not trying to make excuses for normies in terms of the extent to which bitcoin might have sunk into their noggens.. and if there were some normies who were actively engaged in combating bitcoin without really understanding it, or they were largely distracted and diverted by misinformation, then those kinds of normies would be more deserving of their HFSP status.
Of course with the passage of time, there have developed more and more information and access channels to attempt to both figure out what BTC is and also to figure out some kind of a reasonable and prudent investment approach.
I have been dealing with someone for well over 4 years, and she even got started 4 years ago, then sold her then BTC at a loss and then now is considering getting back into BTC.. but the level of disinformation, misinformation and confusing muddled thought coming out of her mouth is not easy to overcome. Frustrating, and I am not sure about how much responsibility that I have to attempt to teach or lead to the right resources when there seem to be many levels of denial and even failure refusal to study into the matter or to take any responsibilities... so, sure, I lose patience, so I might not be the right person for some of that.
With that person, several times, I say holy fucking shit, we have been over this.. x, y and z, which are basics, and you still are battling the basic ideas on a regular basis, doing the opposite and failing/refusing to process basic aspects of the information and to take reasonable and adequate measures to look into matters or to learn, which seem to be purposeful goals to put and keep head in sand.
For sure, I do not want to give excuses for people, but for sure there has
not been 13 years of opportunity for many normies who might not have really had any ability to understand or look into bitcoin.
I know that I heard about bitcoin at some point in 2013 (maybe even mid-2013), and the word "bitcoin" just did not sink into my noggen.. and it seems like I did not really have any ideas about the concept of bitcoin before November 2013, except just basically understanding that something with that name existed in the world. On the other hand, when I started researching into bitcoin in November 2013, it really did not take me very long to recognize bitcoin as the thing that I thought that I was looking for, which largely I was already prepped and receptive to bitcoin because I was actively looking for investments and I was looking for something to hedge my then various based dollar investments in my then portfolio.
In several senses, I was very lucky to be in a place and position to be receptive to bitcoin in late 2013, and I am thinking that there were times in 2010, 2011, 2012 and early 2013 that I just would not have had time for that, even if I had been exposed to bitcoin in those earlier times. I just was not in a position to look into the matter prior to when I did start looking into the matter.
.. .. so I suppose that it is just part of my point that it is very difficult to make assertions that normies had exposure to bitcoin and even opportunities to buy (or get involved) in the past 13 years.. .. and yeah, of course, the longer that bitcoin has been in existence, the more it seems that a large number of normies have had opportunities to get involved in bitcoin and to take a stake in bitcoin.. and even if any normies had looked into bitcoin and taken a decent stake before September 2020, they would have been greatly advantaged from such actions and such actively looking into the matter - even if it can still take a decent amount of time for information to sink into the noggen and for the actual actions to start to build up a reasonable bitcoin position.
If someone is struggling with cashflow, and ONLY invests $10 per week or some less aggressive position, sure they will be advantaged, but they are NOT going to be even close to as advantaged as the person who takes a more aggressive position, whether such more aggressive position is $100 per week, $350 per week, $1,000 per week or even some kind of seemingly high level of crazy, like Michael Saylor and MSTR to both spend 70% or more of their cash reserves on bitcoin from the start of their starting to create a stake to prepare for possible UP, and then to start using debt instruments too.. in order to prepare for UP... so of course, actions and publicity like Saylor does likely cause a lot more information to be out there and fewer excuses for normies to at least not to begin to take some kind of reasonable and prudent bitcoin stake... even aggressive too..
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