Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[dragonvslinux]

Maybe some of your technical wizards like Dragon or Toxic et al can fix my errors here or fill in the blanks, but it looks to me lioke we are piercing the most liberally drawn trendline possible:

Ok, I'll bite, that's the sort of thing I do 

I see only 1 touch-point on this support trend-line from 2021, I'll assume a second one from 2020. The third one could therefore provide a pattern, but so far remains unconfirmed and therefore for now remains to be seen as a "random line drawn on a chart". I'd say the relevance remains low unless you follow "hyperwave" theory, in which case it'd be bullish breaking this second wave, as only leads to a market expansion.

Otherwise, what else do you see? Do you see marco higher highs with marco higher lows still? Personally, this is still what I see, despite the sideways price in between.

In the end I will be SUPER surprised if we are entering a new Bear (that is a capital 'B' as in 'Bitcoin Winter')... but the chance of it is bigger than ever so far in this "cycle".  So my "Cycles are on the way out" thesis is on the verge of being tested.

Truth is, we'll only get a reasonable confirmation of a Bear when $30K is broken and price creates a macro lower low. Even then, there'd still be higher high combined with lower lows however.

I should come up with some numbers, but I do not know how to do it.

What you do is you randomly assign percentages based on your current emotions 

At the very minimum I do not think we see a 80%+ pullback from ATH.

Me neither, doesn't fit any logical Bitcoin price structure of the past 10 years.

What is that umm...  We do not go below 13.8k?

I'd say 99%. Below $20K and 200 Week MA, price would be in serious trouble, like multi multi multi multi year Bear. Very unlikely imo.

See thjat's the other interesting metric.  That is the pullback based on the minimum % from other cycles.  But that also takes us to below the previous cycles ATH.  Since we have not gone up the same sort of multiples as the past, I don't see us going down that way either. 

Exactly the point here. Price has only corrected 80% when there is a blow-off top, a parabolic rise. It was arguably possible in early 2021, but simply never happened. Too late now.

I think we see bears that last something like the last 6 month one did, and then probably new ATH again, but most likely not the same sort of huge multiple...  things like 3x instead of 30x.

I have a similar outlook. The short-term bear markets within a bull market structure as we had in 2021. Rinse and repeat, until a blow-off top eventually occurs.

I think it’s looking pretty obvious now that the bull market is over. It shouldn’t bother any of you on a long time preference. I sold nothing in the 2017 bull & regretted it for ages. Didn’t make the same mistake this time, dumped 25% of my bags between 53.8k & 65k, set for life & now, seeing this dump & likely transition to bear market……

I think that's fair if you felt over-exposed around >$50K prices, I'd also do the same. I sold smaller amount between $50-60K (fearing a lower high), and otherwise held the vast majority. No regrets either.

I still doubt the longer-term bull market is over, or more importantly I doubt the bear market has begun. I still see the 12-month consolidation between $30K-70K as bullish, with higher highs and higher lows.

We're probably going to 30k in the next 12 months, I will buy back what I sold there. If not, no problem, 75% of stash locked away.

Maybe consider some mid-$30K levels to re-acumulate? If price re-tests $30K support that wouldn't be great, it will only weaken it, but a higher marco low above this would certainly be good.

I hope none of you made my 2017 mistake & deludedly thought bitcoin won’t go down.

Personally I sold all my BTC at an average of $15K, but that was as a late investor at $5K levels during a parabolic run. No regrets, as re-accumulated between $6K-8K, but this year I don't see the same argument for selling significant amounts personally. The parabolic 4-year cycles have now ended, this much is true given $100K+ didn't occur in late 2021 / early this year. Each to their own though.

[ImThour]

Three Reasons to HODL Your BTC

1. Check Image Below



You really need another reason?

[cAPSLOCK]

Imho

Big players, institutional players, new people, who ever ….. have had 13years long to buy BTC on the cheap, over the years when BTC have become relevanter it have had serious dips and opportunities enough to buy cheaper, just as one is presented right now.
People whom invested in this apex asset of value are more and more keeping there hands onto it and are less likely to sell on the cheap… I think we will not have extreme low prices, people just have to buy on smaller discounts.

'

I have spent giant JJG size walls of text saying what you said well in few sentences!

[dragonvslinux]

You really need another reason?

Yes please, ideally I'd like to see all three reason not just one. I'd also like to see a time-frame here, as appears to be lacking.
Is the second reason what goes down must go up further? If so, it's already well documented to be fair.

Thanks in advance 

YFI: If I was feeling childish I'd draw a 50% drop followed by another 50% drop, but I'll refrain for now 

[cAPSLOCK]

I think it’s looking pretty obvious now that the bull market is over. It shouldn’t bother any of you on a long time preference. I sold nothing in the 2017 bull & regretted it for ages. Didn’t make the same mistake this time, dumped 25% of my bags between 53.8k & 65k, set for life & now, seeing this dump & likely transition to bear market……



We're probably going to 30k in the next 12 months, I will buy back what I sold there. If not, no problem, 75% of stash locked away.

I hope none of you made my 2017 mistake & deludedly thought bitcoin won’t go down.
If you did, I hope you can live peacefully until the next bull cycle which will start in 2024. If you sold nothing don’t worry, we will hit 100k & above but not in 2022 & most likely not 2023 either. 2024 & 2025 we ride again.

I love this.  Because you are basically taking the exact opposite of the scenario I see playing out.  BTW, I think you did well to sell where you did, and congratulate you for locking in the life changing gains!  nice!

BUT. You are basically seeing this as another cycle...  and I am betting it is not. I do not think we have to wait to 24-25 for the next run.  In fact I think we will have 6-8 months max.  And even if we DO have to wait till 24-25 we never have the magnitude pullback we saw in cycles past.

I need to do some real due diligence before i start saying numbers like that... that's butt pencil math.

Anyway, I am glad someone I respect is taking the other end of this.  If I were a betting man, I'd offer you a wager.  But I am not, and will just risk my already shaky reputation.

Here is a famous analyst who would be even more bearish than you insofar as the depth and breadth of the bear, who was famous for exactly 1 bear call years ago:

The master is tolling the bell of doom.  This is the man who called the 2014 bear market.

Mecячнaя кapтинкa cтoит нa гpaни.
Bo-пepвыx, oнa пoкaзывaeт пoддepжкy нa ypoвнe 35к
Bo-втopыx, фopмиpyeтcя мeдвeжий кpocc нa мaкд.
B тpeтьиx, цeнa идёт в aтaкy нa мa20, ycтoит ли пocлeдняя?

B oбщeм, ecли кpocc пpoйдeт и мa20 пpoбьeт, тyшитe cвeт, бyим пpoщaтьcя лeт нa 10.

The monthly picture is on the verge.
First, it shows support at the 35k level.
Second, a bearish cross at the MacD is forming.
Thirdly, the price is attacking MA20, will the latter hold up?

In general, if the cross passes and MA20 breaks through, turn off the lights, we will say goodbye for 10 years.

I am assuming this is based on the BIGGEST zoom out of Elliot Wave theory...

[goldkingcoiner]

Stupid sexy Flanders.

[El duderino_]

Imho

Big players, institutional players, new people, who ever ….. have had 13years long to buy BTC on the cheap, over the years when BTC have become relevanter it have had serious dips and opportunities enough to buy cheaper, just as one is presented right now.
People whom invested in this apex asset of value are more and more keeping there hands onto it and are less likely to sell on the cheap… I think we will not have extreme low prices, people just have to buy on smaller discounts.

'

I have spent giant JJG size walls of text saying what you said well in few sentences!

Haha excuse me sire… haven’t read all of it last days… very busy

Still have a lot of interesting stuff to read as well @ another part “legacy shit etc”  ;-) where some good writers write ;-)….

Gonna try to make more time again very soon-ish

[JayJuanGee]

There will be no more large 80-90% decreases in Bitcoin anymore.

Of course, if we do not get any supra $250k or maybe such top (blow-off?) needs to be supra a $650k blow off top, then there is not enough room for a 80-90% correction, but if such a blow-off top were to end up in the $650k to $1.5 million arena in the next year, then I would imagine that something approaching a 80-90% correction would be reasonably within the cards and a subsequent play.

In other words, there is a need to understand the preceding leg of BTC's price movement before prognosticating in absolutes about the subsequent leg....

Sure, maybe you want to proclaim that there is not going to be any blow-off top in the $650k to $1.5 million in the coming year, so sure that could then cause an 80-90% correction to be nearly completely unreasonable..

Even if the odds for a $650k to $1.5 million blow-off top within the coming year is less than 7%-ish (consistent with my December 16 numbers) I am not going to presume before any of the supra $69k (again going to further ATHs) happen (if it does?), and never is a pretty strong way of framing the matter of BTC's future anticipated price performance.

The next year is critical.^tm  - you see what I did there?  increased the possible blow-off top timeline... hahahahahaha

Imho

Big players, institutional players, new people, who ever ….. have had 13years long to buy BTC on the cheap, over the years when BTC have become relevanter it have had serious dips and opportunities enough to buy cheaper, just as one is presented right now.
People whom invested in this apex asset of value are more and more keeping there hands onto it and are less likely to sell on the cheap… I think we will not have extreme low prices, people just have to buy on smaller discounts.

I don't completely disagree with you dude, but I do believe that there is some relevance regarding what normies knew about bitcoin and when they knew it.. and I am not trying to make excuses for normies in terms of the extent to which bitcoin might have sunk into their noggens.. and if there were some normies who were actively engaged in combating bitcoin without really understanding it, or they were largely distracted and diverted by misinformation, then those kinds of normies would be more deserving of their HFSP status.

Of course with the passage of time, there have developed more and more information and access channels to attempt to both figure out what BTC is and also to figure out some kind of a reasonable and prudent investment approach.

I have been dealing with someone for well over 4 years, and she even got started 4 years ago, then sold her then BTC at a loss and then now is considering getting back into BTC.. but the level of disinformation, misinformation and confusing muddled thought coming out of her mouth is not easy to overcome.  Frustrating, and I am not sure about how much responsibility that I have to attempt to teach or lead to the right resources when there seem to be many levels of denial and even failure refusal to study into the matter or to take any responsibilities... so, sure, I lose patience, so I might not be the right person for some of that.

With that person, several times, I say holy fucking shit, we have been over this.. x, y and z, which are basics, and you still are battling the basic ideas on a regular basis, doing the opposite and failing/refusing to process basic aspects of the information and to take reasonable and adequate measures to look into matters or to learn, which seem to be purposeful goals to put and keep head in sand.

For sure, I do not want to give excuses for people, but for sure there has not been 13 years of opportunity for many normies who might not have really had any ability to understand or look into bitcoin. 

I know that I heard about bitcoin at some point in 2013 (maybe even mid-2013), and the word "bitcoin" just did not sink into my noggen.. and it seems like I did not really have any ideas about the concept of bitcoin before November 2013, except just basically understanding that something with that name existed in the world.  On the other hand, when I started researching into bitcoin in November 2013, it really did not take me very long to recognize bitcoin as the thing that I thought that I was looking for, which largely I was already prepped and receptive to bitcoin because I was actively looking for investments and I was looking for something to hedge my then various based dollar investments in my then portfolio. 

In several senses, I was very lucky to be in a place and position to be receptive to bitcoin in late 2013, and I am thinking that there were times in 2010, 2011, 2012 and early 2013 that I just would not have had time for that, even if I had been exposed to bitcoin in those earlier times.  I just was not in a position to look into the matter prior to when I did start looking into the matter. 

.. .. so I suppose that it is just part of my point that it is very difficult to make assertions that normies had exposure to bitcoin and even opportunities to buy (or get involved) in the past 13 years.. .. and yeah, of course, the longer that bitcoin has been in existence, the more it seems that a large number of normies have had opportunities to get involved in bitcoin and to take a stake in bitcoin.. and even if any normies had looked into bitcoin and taken a decent stake before September 2020, they would have been greatly advantaged from such actions and such actively looking into the matter - even if it can still take a decent amount of time for information to sink into the noggen and for the actual actions to start to build up a reasonable bitcoin position.   

If someone is struggling with cashflow, and ONLY invests $10 per week or some less aggressive position, sure they will be advantaged, but they are NOT going to be even close to as advantaged as the person who takes a more aggressive position, whether such more aggressive position is $100 per week, $350 per week, $1,000 per week or even some kind of seemingly high level of crazy, like Michael Saylor and MSTR to both spend 70% or more of their cash reserves on bitcoin from the start of their starting to create a stake to prepare for possible UP, and then to start using debt instruments too.. in order to prepare for UP... so of course, actions and publicity like Saylor does likely cause a lot more information to be out there and fewer excuses for normies to at least not to begin to take some kind of reasonable and prudent bitcoin stake... even aggressive too..

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[cAPSLOCK]

Ok, I'll bite, that's the sort of thing I do 

I see only 1 touch-point on this support trend-line from 2021, I'll assume a second one from 2020. The third one could therefore provide a pattern, but so far remains unconfirmed and therefore for now remains to be seen as a "random line drawn on a chart". I'd say the relevance remains low unless you follow "hyperwave" theory, in which case it'd be bullish breaking this second wave, as only leads to a market expansion.

That is essentially correct.  It does sort of run up the previous bottom, but I would honestly call this a "1 touch" line.  Which I do know is bullshit.  So my worries are really silly, other than the fact that any more local lines are firmly broken now.

But (without quoting as much) sounds like we line up on a lot of other thoughts around this.

If nothing else this is fun.

The two variable that are really irritating me are:

1.  The Macro backdrop (inc Covid, CB inflation, war, collapsing nations, oil, urea, China and so much else).  Fundamentally this could drive so much.

2.  Paper corn.  The proliferation of all these not bitcoin bitcoin.  Synthetic ETFs, proxies, etc.  This could both depress the price, as well as take out some of the buying pressure.  This one is INTERESTING because Bitcoin has properties that make this a very dangerous game for those who choose to play it.

[Paashaas]

[ImThour]

I see a pattern.

[fillippone]

I hope none of you made my 2017 mistake & deludedly thought bitcoin won’t go down.
If you did, I hope you can live peacefully until the next bull cycle which will start in 2024. If you sold nothing don’t worry, we will hit 100k & above but not in 2022 & most likely not 2023 either. 2024 & 2025 we ride again.

Who are you?
Where did you hide the real LFC_Bitcoin??

We want the bullish stuff and the hype about 100k party! With all the corollaries!

/joke

I hear you.
These are extremely savy words, and something a grown up man would think.

But hey! I did come on the WO for the fun! Not for good financial advice!
/joke again!

[d_eddie]

A fairly detailed "The State of Things" report by Will Clemente.

https://www.blockwareintelligence.com/p/blockware-intelligence-newsletter-f67

Here are a few snippets. The whole piece is worth reading. It packs a lot of information in a fairly short read.

With that last part in mind, I was personally doing a fair bit of Bitcoin shopping last night. (not financial advice of course) Why? Because we are at massive macro support, the invalidation for the idea is so clear, and this is the last level that makes sense to do so from a risk-reward standpoint.

The overweighing factor for the crypto market and all risk-on assets is the fear of monetary tightening and the effect that will have on markets. This is the trade-off of Bitcoin becoming an institutionalized asset - we will see it have a stronger correlation to macro and traditional markets.

Stablecoin margined open interest on Binance specifically is still near the highest it’s ever been. Even after this recent price action which did wipe out a few hundred million dollars in open interest, still a long way to go.

You’ll notice I haven’t talked about on-chain much in the last month or so either on here or on Twitter. The reason is because when open interest is built up so much, derivatives data matters most.

[Paashaas]

Prepair for $35k - $40k range that would be the final bottom.

thems rookie numbers

just wait til proudhon gets here with MANLY (err aplacaly?) numbers. you will know real shame then.

Bitcoin price speculation is fun but i'm often wrong...in fact i've seen so many of models in the past 1 a 2 years and guess what they where all wrong. ALL!

Thats why i just hold and sticking to my financial planning.

Have x coins on Bitstamp selling them at the end of this bull run -unfortunately it didn't happend in December- can wait another 6 moths ore so, no problem. When it happens the next part of my retirement fase will start.

[Flangler1]

I see a pattern.

This just looks like one big distribution phase in my opinion. I read somewhere that by people nature the distribution is longer than accumulation beacuse the greed is weaker emotion than fear.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

I hope none of you made my 2017 mistake & deludedly thought bitcoin won’t go down.
If you did, I hope you can live peacefully until the next bull cycle which will start in 2024. If you sold nothing don’t worry, we will hit 100k & above but not in 2022 & most likely not 2023 either. 2024 & 2025 we ride again.

Who are you?
Where did you hide the real LFC_Bitcoin??

We want the bullish stuff and the hype about 100k party! With all the corollaries!

/joke

I hear you.
These are extremely savy words, and something a grown up man would think.

But hey! I did come on the WO for the fun! Not for good financial advice!
/joke again!

We all know where bitcoin is going, potentially entering a bear market now changes nothing. I was convinced we’d hit 100k - 150k in 2021. It didn’t happen but OK.

Maybe it was COVID that diluted the bull run so if that’s the case maybe the bear market won’t be so bad.

I was told by a few wise OG’s to hedge & make sure you’re financially free in any situation. I took that advice, we are still going to $500,000+ this decade.

Last serious post - Back to posting gifs & memes in future.

[AlcoHoDL]

Three Reasons to HODL Your BTC

[...]

You really need another reason?

No offense to the TA analysts out there, but my HoDL driving force is the mere fact that there will only ever be 21,000,000 BTC in existence, and 90% of that has already been mined. That's all one needs to know. Anticipating price is irrelevant.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[El duderino_]

I see a pattern.

And if not…. Then we just make the first yellow line a longer one…. So always there will be a pattern