Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[psycodad]

Shrimp: less than 1 BTC
Crab: 1 to 10 BTC
Octopus: 10 to 50 BTC
Fish: 50 to 100 BTC
Dolphin: 100 to 500 BTC
Shark: 500 to 1000 BTC
Whale: >1000 BTC
Humpback: >5000 BTC

I am a Crab, what about you guys?

plankton

It's about things that swim in the oceans, right?

I am a six pack ring.

[1714294886]

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[1714294886]

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[1714294886]

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[AlcoHoDL]

Shrimp: less than 1 BTC
Crab: 1 to 10 BTC
Octopus: 10 to 50 BTC
Fish: 50 to 100 BTC
Dolphin: 100 to 500 BTC
Shark: 500 to 1000 BTC
Whale: >1000 BTC
Humpback: >5000 BTC

I am a Crab, what about you guys?

I knew that whales, sharks, and even dolphins can fuck you up good when you go near them... But a fish? As things currently stand, even fish have some major "fuck-you" power...

Marine species aside, it looks like we'll soon be entering the whole-Bitcoiners' era: even 1 BTC will be enough to set you up for life. It's a when, not an if. Just a few more years to wait... Easy for a hardened HoDLer like most WOers.

HoDL.

[bct_ail]

I am a Crab, what about you guys?

HODLer.

But anyway. What kind of creature would I be with just 1 Satoshi?  

[xhomerx10]

Hypocrite much?

You know what disturbs me even more than the reality of what has happened to the north of me?

The fact that (aside from Bukele) not a leader of single western democracy has spoken up to condemn this action.

It does not bode well in my opinion.

 Because they are all fucking friends!  They are all "Young Global Leaders"; graduates of Klaus Schwab's World Economic Forum.  Champagne with billionaires as Boris Johnson put it.  We're just peons who need more government and more corporate influence over our lives.  This isn't new; WEF isn't the only 'elite' gathering either but membership is limited to 1000 companies and if you're not making over $1 billion a year, you're not invited unless you're a young, malleable socialist.  Fuck even Vlad Putin is an alumnus.

[twiki]

HODLer.

But anyway. What kind of creature would I be with just 1 Satoshi?  

I would say that you would then be a bacterium.  

Since, judging by the forecasts of the guys from this thread, by the end of the year you can see bitcoin in the region of $100,000, and a year after the halving, the price may consolidate in the region of $190,000. So 1 satoshi is still not enough to be a crab.

[Richy_T]

Just checked the whether report to see when the rain is gonna stop, guess what, it isn't.
It's a ten day prognosis and it forecasts rain for ten days straight, Jippi!

Storms coming here tomorrow so I got up on the roof to take a look at what's been causing a leak and it seems that neither the people who replaced the roof last time nor the people who did it the time before had any fucking idea how to flash in a dormer window. Best I could do for now is slather some goop on but I may have to look at getting it done properly this year.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[vapourminer]

Storms coming here tomorrow so I got up on the roof to take a look at what's been causing a leak and it seems that neither the people who replaced the roof last time nor the people who did it the time before had any fucking idea how to flash in a dormer window. Best I could do for now is slather some goop on but I may have to look at getting it done properly this year.

watch out for mold, its a real bitch to remediate. best to tear out more than whats needed to make sure you dont miss any moisture damaged structure that will come back to bite you (possibly years) later.

btw bleaching wood to try and kill mold and such doesnt work, the spores will survive (they go pretty deep and a surface application of bleach wont reach that deep). you need to seal any moisture damaged wood once its dry. hard surfaces can be disinfected with bleach though.

wet sheetrock, insulation and rugs.. just trash em.

get something like this (random amazon hit)
https://www.amazon.com/Stihl-Wood-Digital-Moisture-Meter/dp/B0056TLHIE

[Torque]

Just checked the whether report to see when the rain is gonna stop, guess what, it isn't.
It's a ten day prognosis and it forecasts rain for ten days straight, Jippi!

Storms coming here tomorrow so I got up on the roof to take a look at what's been causing a leak and it seems that neither the people who replaced the roof last time nor the people who did it the time before had any fucking idea how to flash in a dormer window. Best I could do for now is slather some goop on but I may have to look at getting it done properly this year.

I just solved an infuriating roof leak around my wood stove flue myself, after pulling my hair out going round and round with the builder's crewmen for about 6 months on the leak issue. During storms, water was leaking in around the ceiling collar and dripping right down on top of my wood stove.

Turns out it was a hair leak where the outside stove flue meets the storm collar, even though they had reassured me multiple times that the storm collar had been amply caulked with the proper roofing sealant and that no way that water could be getting in through there. No it had not!

After re-caulking over it myself with liquid rubber (along with virtually everything else around it up there), problem fixed. No more leak.

Lesson learned: don't ever assume or trust that builder's crewmen know what the fuck they are doing, or what they are talking about. Even on a brand new build or installation.

[JayJuanGee]

We're not going to make it beyond $99,999. Go ahead, watch.

Historically, in bitcoinlandia, the round numbers do not tend to work like that - even if quite a few normies seem to have tendencies to go down that belief path. 

In other words, the resistance is usually somewhere in the ballpark of 7-10% below such numbers, and once we get into a kind of less than 5% range, not ONLY does the going over-the-top tend towards inevitable, it also tends towards more than 10% overshoot...

Look at the first time breaches of $10, $100, $1k and $10k... sure there was some back and forth, but ultimately there was pretty decent overshooting once the price got close to the breaching.

By the way, I was not around for the $10 and $100 breaches, so I can only go by the charts, which seem pretty clear.. including if we go back to the first time breaching above $1 too... .. even though sometimes, I am not sure if we can really be making fair comparison of BTC now versus earlier days - which could well support the "this time is different" framework - but I really have my doubts about those kinds of desires to assert that this time is as different as would like to be spun.. merely because bitcoin is BIGGER.. ... and part of the problem with the presumptions that bitcoin has become too BIG for its britches is that the players coming into bitcoin have also gotten BIGGER too.. so it seems to me that the BIGness of the players coming into bitcoin tends to compensate for bitcoin getting BIGGER and there may be more shorting financial instruments thrown at bitcoin... yet those BIGGER players likely have less ability to keep bitcoin down than they believe that they have... and some of them are likely to get hurt pretty bad in their betting with assets that they do not have.

Sure, it is possible that this time is different - and bitcoin has difficulties getting above the 5 digits realm - yet I would even be willing to conjecture that once bitcoin gets above $95k-ish.. the breaching of $100k becomes nearly inevitable in spite fantasies of various bitcoin naysayers, no coiners, fence sitters, shitcoin pumpeners and/or other similar kinds of "failure/refusal to appreciate the power of bitcoin" dweebs.

[ImThour]

No. of Times RSI went Below 30 on Weekly: 3
No. of Halvings in BTC Till Now: 3

White Vertical Line represents when RSI went below 30 or equivalent to 30.
Red Vertical Line represents Halving.

N.B.: This is a weekly chart, so halving date might be different as it counts weekly candles.

1st:
- RSI Below 30: 14th Nov, 2011
- Halving: 28th Nov, 2022
- Growth from Bottom to ATH in 1st Phase: 37,152%

2nd:
- RSI Below 30: 12th Jan, 2015
- Halving: 9th July, 2016
- Growth from Bottom to ATH in 2nd Phase: 8189%

3rd:
- RSI Below 30: 10th Dec, 2018
- Halving: 11th May, 2020
- Growth from Bottom to ATH in 3rd Phase: 1783%

Average Days Before Halving when RSI goes Below 30: 371 (1st Phase) + 546 (2nd Phase) + 518 (3rd Phase) / 3 = 478 Days
So 478 Days before Predicted 4th Halving (Source: https://www.buybitcoinworldwide.com/bitcoin-clock/) brings us in First week of Dec 2022.

That will be the expected time when Bitcoin RSI will be below 30 and will be the best possible buy for next 4-5 years.
P.S.: It's an analysis of what happened in the past and is a prediction, NFA.

Hope you will like this analysis.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[poldanmig]

HODLer.

But anyway. What kind of creature would I be with just 1 Satoshi?  

1 satoshi ?
Obviously it's just plankton in the vast ocean, maybe you can store it for a few more centuries and hope it becomes a whale that rules the oceans, in comparison The satoshi to Bitcoin ratio is 1:100,000,000 or 0.00000001 BTC and I think if you want to wait it out being a crab is certainly an impossible thing to happen  

[ImThour]

We're not going to make it beyond $99,999. Go ahead, watch.

Historically, in bitcoinlandia, the round numbers do not tend to work like that - even if quite a few normies seem to have tendencies to go down that belief path. 

IKR, I thought I made it obvious that it's a joke to reference of this post.

I think I might have found the first ever #Bitcoin Bear 😱

https://twitter.com/MatthewHyland_/status/1493787935186976768




 

[JayJuanGee]

Shrimp: less than 1 BTC
Crab: 1 to 10 BTC
Octopus: 10 to 50 BTC
Fish: 50 to 100 BTC
Dolphin: 100 to 500 BTC
Shark: 500 to 1000 BTC
Whale: >1000 BTC
Humpback: >5000 BTC

I am a Crab, what about you guys?

For sure I would like to see a re-make of this size classification... because surely, it is quickly becoming unrealistic for newbie normies to even reach crab status.. .so it would be nice to attempt to relate to newbie normies.

Seems to me that this chart has been around for at least as long as I have been in bitcoin.. which is late 2013.. and it seems that our price drop in 2014 and even our BTC price stagnation in 2015 allowed for the chart to stay relevant, even through that whole period..

consider the matter


Through much of 2015, it would have been quite easy to get into bitcoin for less than $250 per BTC, but through much of that time, so many folks were quite scared of bitcoin's then seemingly future price direction, and it is shown by how long the BTC price mostly stayed below $250.., and remember that the BTC price even dipped to test $200 again as late as late August 2015... so holy fuck can you think about depressing.,. but still at the same time realistic for that chart to apply to the situation of normies.. so even if these days we might say that normies are going to struggle to get even 0.5BTC with a BTC dedicated bankroll of $20k, back in 2015, they could have gotten anywhere between 50 and 100 BTC with such bankroll, and maybe that is why the middle of the chart.. represented by fish, would have been attainable for even any normie who was ready, willing and able to be aggressive in his/her bitcoin investment.  

But, even someone who had been already establishing a decently sized investment portfolio and arriving close to something like $1 million, may have been willing to invest 10% of his/her investment portfolio into BTC, and would have gotten something like 250 BTC to 500 BTC from such 10% investment (talking about putting $100k into BTC).

In other words, to me it seems unrealistic to be using that chart, and even though we have likely had to move our fuck you status up from $1 million to $2 million, we still should be considering the ability to place normie newbies in some reasonable place in the chart, even if it might not be in the middle of the chart but at least somewhere that comes above the first level.. because I would argue that normie newbies are going to have a lot of troubles (unless they happen to be that close to retiring person who has gotten his/her investment portfolio up to something approaching $2 million) getting up to even above 1 BTC......

Actually, maybe it is worth a wee bit of a devolution to discuss the situation of someone (call them precoiner) who might be currently approaching a fuck you status of $2 million in traditional investments, but is only recently coming into a consideration of investing into BTC.  Historically, I had been suggesting that such person get the fuck off of zero, and get 1% to 10% into bitcoin.

These days I am still suggesting to get the fuck off of zero, but consider 1% to 25% as your entry-level  into BTC.. so in that regard, a person who has already accomplished something close to $2 million in his/her investment portfolio will still be wanting to get into bitcoin in order to attempt to both preserve and to grow the value that has already been attained - also presuming an ability to maybe not get too worried about any need to withdraw any BTC that is currently invested for at least 4 years from the the time of investment.. so at current BTC prices (let's call them $40k to $55k -ish)... such person who has a $2 million investment portfolio would come out with anywhere between 0.3636 BTC (that's 1% invested at $55k - which is only investing $20k) to 12.5 BTC  (that's 25% invested at $40k - which is investing $500k)...

So even someone getting close to fuck you status without a bitcoin component is going to both be faced with a dilemma regarding whether and how much to invest into BTC, but also how quickly to attempt to reach his/her target allocation once such quantity decision has been reached.

For sure, anyone can come up with new revised fish propagation level.. and I would imagine that there needs to be way more acknowledgement of the variation within the lower levels because even those newbie normies getting in these days have decent chances of having quite a bit of empowerment at both below a 1 BTC level and even within the 1-10 BTC accumulation range.

Shrimp: less than 1 BTC
Crab: 1 to 10 BTC
Octopus: 10 to 50 BTC
Fish: 50 to 100 BTC
Dolphin: 100 to 500 BTC
Shark: 500 to 1000 BTC
Whale: >1000 BTC
Humpback: >5000 BTC

I am a Crab, what about you guys?

Congrats.  And I have not read ahead.  But this question is not destined to be well received.  You may not understand why...  It is primarily because of security.  Why tell a group of strangers (as well as the entire internet) that you have between 40k-400k in dollar terms in magical internet money?

This too.  I was going to mention something like this within my above response.. but I guess I got too caught up in my other more general discussion points.

Surely, I do not mind talking about this in terms of the theoretical categories - and without necessarily getting into details of personal stash levels.. even though sometimes we do like to talk about potential personal stash levels and stash management whether normies or even someone who might have achieved more flexibility in terms of reaching various personal targets over the years.. and surely, even if some of us may have reached some personal targets through the years, we cannot even be assured that we might not have made a few screw-ups along the way, too... shit happens... that's for sure. .

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Richy_T]

Explanation

Weird.

[OutOfMemory]

Most interesting read i had in the on-chain analysis realm on twitter in months:

https://twitter.com/WClementeIII/status/1493994236634664963

[JayJuanGee]

Just checked the whether report to see when the rain is gonna stop, guess what, it isn't.
It's a ten day prognosis and it forecasts rain for ten days straight, Jippi!

40 days and 40 nights perhaps?

Shrimp: less than 1 BTC
Crab: 1 to 10 BTC
Octopus: 10 to 50 BTC
Fish: 50 to 100 BTC
Dolphin: 100 to 500 BTC
Shark: 500 to 1000 BTC
Whale: >1000 BTC
Humpback: >5000 BTC

I am a Crab, what about you guys?

I knew that whales, sharks, and even dolphins can fuck you up good when you go near them... But a fish? As things currently stand, even fish have some major "fuck-you" power...

Marine species aside, it looks like we'll soon be entering the whole-Bitcoiners' era: even 1 BTC will be enough to set you up for life. It's a when, not an if. Just a few more years to wait... Easy for a hardened HoDLer like most WOers.

HoDL.

At various times, I had conceded to having more than 0.63 BTC, and even though I may well have some pretty decent ideas about portfolio management and striving to tailorize BTC accumulation within your own personal circumstances, there are no guarantees either way.. .either being able to sustain any stash that has been reached to date - or even to arrive at something like 1BTC, which still seems like it could reasonably be within reach for either normie who has been in BTC for a while or a normie who may well engage in ongoing relatively aggressive BTC accumulation methods.

Another question might need to be whether more realism need to snap into the minds of the various longer term WO members?  Sure there might well be a decent number of longer term WO members who have exceeded or quite exceeded 1 BTC, but at the same time, there continues to be needs for attempts at abilities to relate across the spectrum of different levels of BTC accumulators/HODLers.

Remember mindrust's purported elation at temporarily reaching a portfolio size of 10 BTC in March 2020... any newbies or normies reaching 10 BTC with any kind of easiness is surely going to be a relic of the past.. so it is getting close to the point now that 1 BTC has become the new 10 BTC from just 2 years ago.. and longer-term BTC accumulators/HODLers need to get this into our heads... It's getting more and more difficult to even reach 1 BTC, so in that regard, the level of mindrust's purported elation about a portfolio size of 10 BTC in 2020 is soon coming to the reaching of a portfolio size of 1 BTC..

We have to attempt to be realistic, even if we might not quite be at that point of the enormity of 1 BTC, yet... emphasis on yet.... because it seems to be becoming more and more obvious that certain low, low BTC prices (that would allow normies to largely accumulate BTC on a low budget) are more fantasy rather than realistic.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation