Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

https://twitter.com/CoinsureNZ/status/1494377005651046401

I had to look up Wakanda... which I found to be a fictional country.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wakanda

I am not much of a fan of out of context posts, even if there might be some kind of joke in there.

.... Hint: freedom doesn't look like wall-to-wall surveillance, propaganda, lies, riot cops in jackboots and balaclavas, secret contracts between multinational corps and govt, banks doing law enforcement .... these are traits of facist totalitarianism, unholy marriage of power between big corporations and big govt

I have heard some folks denigrate protest on one side versus applauding protests on another side - and the existence of riot cops does seem to be an ambiguous thing - because I cannot really blame status quo officials from striving to engage in some combating of protests and to label protests as something other than what they are.. sometimes protests become too powerful too.. so the use of trucks may or may not be legitimate, but you can appreciate the obstacles that such largess presents towards any government that might attempt to control such.

By the way, bitcoin can help us in these regards, but cannot necessarily fix matters when people are not sufficiently practiced in how to use it effectively.. so anyone can make mistakes, even very smart people.. and when those smart people are known.. they become actual targets that may well not be ready, willing and able to sacrifice their lil selfies for the cause... even if they say that they are willing.. it's not easy for someone who might be in his/her late 20s or early 30s to become willing to get locked up "out of principle."

We are not even going to necessarily agree with some of the substantive issues of some of the protests.. even though there is a lot of legitimacy that those kinds of dynamics can and should exist in "free" societies.. and this imagination of the government disappearing or everyone getting an island or a citadel is just not realistic.. there has to be some governance of public goods/services.. and part of the messy part is that we might not even be able to get two people to completely agree, so in some sense, some of the actual implementations of public goods/services policies/procedures/laws are going to end up having a lot of compromises... and hopefully somewhat representative of the overall population preferences rather than getting diverted into too much weight going to small groups that end up not really representing the overall better way of going forward involving not everyone getting their way..and maybe the structure ends up somewhat in order to NOT infringe too much either...  but not forgetting about providing opportunities for normies and maybe some folks who seem undeserving, too.

Agreed. Protests CAN work, if the goal of the protesters is reasonable/just and true democracy is allowed to prevail.

No matter what, I doubt that we are ever going to get "true democracy," even though many of us would recognize the Indian versus Canada situation as one in which India came out way better than Canada.

Many years ago, I had been studying the topic of democracy and capitalism - and so many times the ideas are weaved together and sometimes we have to question whether both can exist - it gets worse in the workplace.... hostility towards democracy in the workplace... and yeah, I suppose even my own ideas are conflicted about so many contradictions that exist around the topic.. including how much public/people input is enough.. in order to allow the benevolent dictator to come to results that are best for everyone..... Even in the bitcoin space, we have all kinds of divergencies in ideas regarding priorities, so it is difficult to even know if bitcoin fixes this - even though many of us likely realize that a lot of problems have gotten worse from irresponsibilities regarding the money systems, Cantillon effects and for sure the money printer go brrrr corruptions... .. and for sure, if you listen to the Tales from the Crypt podcast (towards the end) that I linked a couple of days ago.. you will see discussion of India seeming to have way better policies/practices in terms of how they are dealing with Corona treatments as compared to the west (and/or the vaccine oriented countries).. which seems to be showing quite a bit of truth in terms of some of the fraudulent crux of the matter regarding Canada's extreme Corona measures that are likely not even close to being scientifically-based (rather than money and population-control based), in the public interest and likely implemented as control measures rather than something that might be freely discussed (even if the truckers might have gone overboard in their ways of employing the trucks to their advantage).

[1714852029]

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[1714852029]

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[1714852029]

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[cAPSLOCK]

Lightning definitely adds an interesting dimension to the USE of Bitcoin.

What I'm trying to wargame out in my mind, is if there is any market for selling "dirty" coins cheaper, to liquidity providers who DGAF about taint, and just throw all that tainted coin into Lightning, and watch the WEF and TPTB have steam and sparks coming out of their ear-holes because tainted coins they have tried to "outlaw" are actually being put to good use...

/brainfart

Well... This is a very interesting question, I think.  And actually somewhat easier to answer than it looks.

Who have you opened channels with, and what condition were those channels in when you closed them?

You and I have three channels open together.  So no matter WHAT is done with our channels, you and I will be the only ones to see the bitcoin at the end of those channel's lives.  We could facilitate trade between millions of transactions among hundreds of thousands of parties, and when we CLOSE that channel it is still the 5mm each (I think) that one or the other of us put up between us. Those bitcoin have never moved.  The ONLY thing different is who gets what at the end of it all.  It is even possible (though difficult) that we both get back exactly the same sats we put into each channel only losing the value of the fees involved.  And at the other extreme the other user could receive the bitcoin from the contract initially put in by the channel partner.  In the latter case you would have another channel with another user where you gained exactly that much equity.

So far as layer one is concerned it's sort of like a poker game.  You and I put money in the middle, and then one or both of us gets some of that money back out.  The only difference is in the meantime our nodes could have agreed to thousands of transactions canceling themselves back and forth forever.

I have a couple of channels with partners where we have done magnitudes more transactions than the channels even hold.  If I wanted to close those channels I could let the money all come over to my side, then close the channel effectively doing nothing.  Back to square one. 

So the point is if you open a channel with a criminal you might end up with  bitcoin used in a crime previously.   I personally see the opportunity to "launder" money on layer 1 with the lightning network to be fairly bad, unless we are only talking about very small amounts.  Now moving money around privately without a clear link???  Well that is another story.  I have a channel opened between the two nodes I run as well!   (Well I used to... I need to reopen it lol)

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

Not only is Bitcoin NOT fungible it is ABSOLUTELY NOT fungible from a pure mathematical aspect.  EVERY satoshi has a pedigree.  You can trace it's origin all the way to the coinbase it was initially realized in.  And you can see the trail of addresses it is passed through to wherever it currently rests.

Not really. When you combine inputs you make the source indeterminate. Coins may taint coins they're mixed with if you want to take that view but that's something different.

Can you expound on this?

If I have a banned address and a good address and I combine inputs then won't my good address get linked to my bad address and chain analysis companies assume if you have the keys to combine you own both?

I'd hate to see someone burn a second address because this was misunderstood.

If you have some kind of pooling service, and there are something like 1,000 input addresses, and let's say that 5 of the input addresses are "blacklisted,"  then the various government agencies want to taint all 1,000 output addresses - but the reality of the matter remains that they are full of shit.. because only less than 1/2 percent actually were blacklisted...

We can all get scared away from using those kinds of pooling services, but the reality of the matter is that they tend to be very effective and ultimately if they are used on a wide-spread basis lead the government to having to blacklist all bitcoin addresses.. which surely is neither workable nor practical, but it works so long as they can scare people away from using those mixing/pooling services.

https://twitter.com/rfreedomconvoy/status/1494494256978972674?s=21

So I guess Canada is just going to arrest peaceful protesters now without cause or justification? Congrats Canada, you are now a communist country.

Covid is apparently so deadly and contagious and the vaccine mandates so needed there, that the arresting officers can't even be bothered to wear masks. Lol, what a fucking joke.  

The truckers are lucky they have not been machined gunned to death.

I not saying killing them is appropriate I am saying they could have been blown away legally as the powers granted to the prime minister include that.

Most people simply do not realize most of the civilized world is a police state.

Do a disturbing enough protest and you get blown away.

It is the trade off for quote un quote a civilized  world.

Not saying I approve or disapprove simply saying it is what it is.

Nope you're wrong. Apparently around the world if you are a BLM/Antifa protester, you can throw bricks through windows, set cars and buildings on fire, attack other people in the streets, smash and loot stores, etc. and you will not get blown away or even arrested. You will get applauded by the libtards, heralded by the MSM, and even given more funds to continue being a domestic terrorist.

Your response, Torque, shows your own inclination towards cloudiness in your thinking.  It would be best to take the politics out of your ways of looking at the matter rather than looking at these matters through tainted lenses.. even if the tolerance of protest does vary from time to time based on political climate.. whining about some protesters getting treated better than others does not get us very far in any kinds of attempts to really work through matters without getting overly distracted.

You miss the point the point is :

"If you are disturbing enough"

Obviously BLM protest was not disturbing enough to the powers to be.

That's a really twisted way of saying that TPTB sanction one type of protest, but not another. It's very clear to everyone now that they only support the global agenda and "the message".

What else is new?

That's part of the problem, but I doubt that the solution would be to whine about one protest getting better treatment.. merely because the powers that be were less threatened by it.

[Richy_T]

Not only is Bitcoin NOT fungible it is ABSOLUTELY NOT fungible from a pure mathematical aspect.  EVERY satoshi has a pedigree.  You can trace it's origin all the way to the coinbase it was initially realized in.  And you can see the trail of addresses it is passed through to wherever it currently rests.

Not really. When you combine inputs you make the source indeterminate. Coins may taint coins they're mixed with if you want to take that view but that's something different.

Can you expound on this?

If I have a banned address and a good address and I combine inputs then won't my good address get linked to my bad address and chain analysis companies assume if you have the keys to combine you own both?

I'd hate to see someone burn a second address because this was misunderstood.

Potentially. That's the "tainting" I was talking about. Though there may be plausible deniability there in some cases and I don't know how LN plays into things (when it's not driving its node operators nutty).

I was just objecting to the "every Satoshi can be traced" which is just not factual. It's a bit nitpicky but I think important enough to bring up. Sometimes it's worth reminding ourselves that Bitcoin is a ledger and bitcoins are an abstraction that don't really exist.

[cAPSLOCK]

Not only is Bitcoin NOT fungible it is ABSOLUTELY NOT fungible from a pure mathematical aspect.  EVERY satoshi has a pedigree.  You can trace it's origin all the way to the coinbase it was initially realized in.  And you can see the trail of addresses it is passed through to wherever it currently rests.

Not really. When you combine inputs you make the source indeterminate. Coins may taint coins they're mixed with if you want to take that view but that's something different.

Can you expound on this?

If I have a banned address and a good address and I combine inputs then won't my good address get linked to my bad address and chain analysis companies assume if you have the keys to combine you own both?

I'd hate to see someone burn a second address because this was misunderstood.

Potentially. That's the "tainting" I was talking about. Though there may be plausible deniability there in some cases and I don't know how LN plays into things (when it's not driving its node operators nutty).

I was just objecting to the "every Satoshi can be traced" which is just not factual. It's a bit nitpicky but I think important enough to bring up. Sometimes it's worth reminding ourselves that Bitcoin is a ledger and bitcoins are an abstraction that don't really exist.

Yes.  That bolded part.  And Lioghtning adds another whole dimension of abstraction.  I wonder how lightning over Liquid might work.  That could be a very private setup.  You peg in, and no one can even see you open a channel really...  it would be like a back hole inside a black hole.  "Cept they aren't really black... just shades of grey.

I need a drink.

[Richy_T]

What was done there was an effort to show cops that slaying a guy in the street with your hands on your hips as if he was not human is not acceptable.

So pollies and MSM whipped BLM into a frenzy to teach cops a lesson.

If you were paying attention, they tried several times before Floyd but weren't able to get it to "catch" because they were the wrong type of "victim". Even with Floyd, they had a very selective release of the video which, when the withheld parts were finally released cast things in a very different light. The damage had successfully been done by then, of course.

In short, it wasn't about Floyd, it was about stirring up civil unrest in an election year. Nothing really got changed and yet... *crickets*

[Richy_T]

BTW, I'm still waiting for the necessary gear. Due in early March, they say.
F*** supply chain disruptions!

Should be able to run it on a regular PC or Laptop, right? I don't think an RPi is a requirement.

[Richy_T]

Atleast they know the difference between Bitcoin and shitcoins.


https://twitter.com/APompliano/status/1494735095281954825

Now do DC.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

Of course, in recent days each of us have been wondering why we could not just go up from here and get above $46k "as we were scheduled" in order to increase confidences that the $32,951 bottom is in.

That bottom still might end up being in, but I am doubting that its odds are better than 50/50.. and it's not like I go much beyond 50/50 in anything that I say regarding short term BTC price anyhow.. even though I feel that I do tend to have my leanings that error on the side of our being in a bull market (even when we are not.. hahahahahaha... those kinds of biases of mine have not really damaged me too much psychologically nor financially in the past 8-ish years)...

In recent months, we have had folks proclaiming that we are in a bear market, and gosh some of these proclamations go back to May-ish of last year... and some of them have been ongoing, consistent and persistent and others have been more opportunistic to be materializing during the more DOWNity times of whatever correction that we are in at the time.. and surely others come after the fact and say "I told you so - look at my post x, y and z."

A frequent underlying fear continues to be whether something like 2018 could repeat... If you might recall (or look at the charts), we had around 5 or 6 times of visiting and revisiting the "support" at $6k, so the feeling was that $6k had to be a pretty damned solid-bottom... so in that sense by the time we got to September/October/November 2018, there was quite a bit of growth in confidence from a broad section of the BTC HODLers that $6k was the bottom... because it had been tested so many times.

So then our current question could be the price arena of $30k.. Is $30k really a bottom for this era... has it been tested sufficiently and strongly enough, and could we end up in a similar situation as we had experienced with our nearly 50% break of BTC price support below $6k once it happened in mid-November 2018?

Personally, I hate to become too cocky regarding whatever BTC price related beliefs that I have because so many times there have been overshooting.. and not just exaggerated overshootings but something that really seems to border upon extreme overshooting - even though sometimes some BTC price points do seem quite difficult to achieve (in spite of proclamations of their inevitability) and also there has to be a lot of tree shaking to get us to even get to something like $28,600 - if we were to get there... however, we also know that if multiple tested bottoms end up tending to have more bottom if they end up getting breached..

I really hate going down this bear-talkening road, and for sure, I hate to be presuming that support is going to break at various BTC price levels.. because we have had many times in which reversals end up happening before the price gets even close to theoretical "support" levels, and those waiting for further bottoms.. end up getting screwed because they really are not sufficiently prepared for UP.

Many of us who have been participating in this thread for a few years have gotten ourselves sufficiently prepared for UP.. so I amnot really too worried about many of us, even if there are some of the guys/gals herein who do seem to want to trade these kinds of conditions that may not really work out too well for them in the end.

I am not going to presume that lower $30ks won't get tested, even though I am considering that any breach below $30k would have difficulties getting anywhere close to even a 30% correction from there (which would be right around $20k).. and I am not sure if I am saying anything controversial.. ... and how much should we even have any dry powder still in reserves for prices below $35/$36k is surely a matter of personal discretion and could well be funds that ONLY serve as insurance rather than being anything that would realistically end up being used..   For sure, I am not against attempting to maintain insurance whenever feasible, and surely I am for neither running out of fiat for the drops that could come nor running out of BTC for any price rises that may end up happening...

[LFC_Bitcoin]

@JJG

Many of us are in a position now where financially we are very comfortable. I’m not too bothered if we go up or down in the short term. I have buy orders in at $31,800 & $28,000. If they hit I will buy back a large % of the coins I sold (25% of my stash) at a 50% discount. We all know where bitcoin is going medium to long term so let’s all relax.

I actually think those orders will get hit you know. I’ve thought for some time that $69,000 was the top. I think we are entering a bear market. As we didn’t get a crazy blow off top though, I don’t think we will get a terrifying 80% crash from $69,000. I’m thinking maybe the absolute bottom & worse case scenario will hit within the next 12-18 months at $23,000 or something like that. We won’t go below $20,000 imo.

Any way like I said, short term who cares. We are going to $100,000+ after the next halving. We’ll probably hit something euphoric like $250,000 in 2025 at the peak of the next bull cycle.

(The above is all assuming that 4 year cycles are still in play. If not then who the hell knows).

[savetherainforest]

@JJG

Many of us are in a position now where financially we are very comfortable. I’m not too bothered if we go up or down in the short term. I have buy orders in at $31,800 & $28,000. If they hit I will buy back a large % of the coins I sold (25% of my stash) at a 50% discount. We all know where bitcoin is going medium to long term so let’s all relax.

I actually think those orders will get hit you know. I’ve thought for some time that $69,000 was the top. I think we are entering a bear market. As we didn’t get a crazy blow off top though, I don’t think we will get a terrifying 80% crash from $69,000. I’m thinking maybe the absolute bottom & worse case scenario will hit within the next 12-18 months at $23,000 or something like that. We won’t go below $20,000 imo.

Any way like I said, short term who cares. We are going to $100,000+ after the next halving. We’ll probably hit something euphoric like $250,000 in 2025 at the peak of the next bull cycle.

(The above is all assuming that 4 year cycles are still in play. If not then who the hell knows).

I am not sure of lower numbers. I'm not into bullish or bearish nonsense, cuz I trade in sh!tcoins. But I do analyze what the "BTCig Puba" does so I can swing trade based on how the wind blows. And what I have 100% certainty is that anything under $52K is a dip.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[cAPSLOCK]

BTW, I'm still waiting for the necessary gear. Due in early March, they say.
F*** supply chain disruptions!

Should be able to run it on a regular PC or Laptop, right? I don't think an RPi is a requirement.

You can certainly run it that way.  BUT most of the node in a box distros are based on a RPi platform.  So it will be a little more DYI I think... I think the next best thing would be one of the docker containers... not sure what's current in that regard.

I have run Bitcoin servers on Old desktops, old laptops, rack servers, VPS instances, Amazon VPSes, RPis, and even a Celeron based QNAP NAS via docker containers.

The RPi nodes are BY FAR the best choice for a home setup.  They are low power, and easy to tuck somewhere next to your hub and always turned on. I think they are by far the best choice as long as you do not intend to do heavy duty business on them, in which case, if no $$$ was an object rack servers in a cage at some well endowed server warehouse... living in Dallas that would be easy...  But I think even if I wanted to run a little commerce I could get pretty far using the Raspiblitz for the node and the BTCPay server before needing to upgrade.

I have been itching to build a Seed Signer and am also super sad that the Pi Zero W models seem to be impossible to get.    https://seedsigner.com/

[Hueristic]

We can all get scared away from using those kinds of pooling services, but the reality of the matter is that they tend to be very effective and ultimately if they are used on a wide-spread basis lead the government to having to blacklist all bitcoin addresses.. which surely is neither workable nor practical, but it works so long as they can scare people away from using those mixing/pooling services.

That seems to be their attack vector of late, seizing anything from mixing services.

Like Bob pointed out a few pages back, Layer 2 needs to address this.

Or there is Monero atomic swaps now.
Don bat slap me man!

[Hueristic]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lItYBU9nYTc

[BobLawblaw]

I need a drink.

I'm starting to wonder about the uses of establishing a circle-jerk of private channels between us; wondering how that factors into the larger LN as a whole...

EDIT: ... and to be clear, letter agencies reading this stuff, no I'm not looking to cause problems - I'm just thinking out loud kinda deal. I have no idea what is going on. Seriously. I'm so retarded, I'm not able to breathe without consciously thinking about it. I sleep in an iron lung.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[cAPSLOCK]

I need a drink.

I'm starting to wonder about the uses of establishing a circle-jerk of private channels between us; wondering how that factors into the larger LN as a whole...

EDIT: ... and to be clear, letter agencies reading this stuff, no I'm not looking to cause problems - I'm just thinking out loud kinda deal. I have no idea what is going on. Seriously. I'm so retarded, I'm not able to breathe without consciously thinking about it. I sleep in an iron lung.

Yeah...  You are being nice to the lettermen.  I hope they realize WE are not their problem, and the physician needs to heal himself first too.

I think the circle is a good thing... I am just not sure how to optimize the use of it.  My personal goal is to support the network at zero cost to myself.  I opened up channels with several nodes in Central and South America, because if I can be a way for someone to buy their Dominoes for a 10th of a penny less and a second faster, then I have done something good for the world.  Although... hopefully if they are eating garbage pizza they have graduated up to Papa Johns?

Currently this is the set of lines I have drawn on the chart.  These look like areas of interest to me.

Looks to me like we should really want 38.5 to hold if we even make it down that far!  There is just so much uncertainty and wild ass news in the world right now...