guys, your poll doesn't fit the reality... we won't see prices like this in 2022...
I think it fits reality, even if Bitcoin doesn't actually change in value when traded for goods/services (seriously doubt this due to adoption, but bear with me). For example, you need roughly 12 BTC to buy a Lambo now, at the end of the year, maybe it will still be 12 BTC for a Lambo, but the poll still fits. Can you guess what happened in this example?
in that case.. 50.000 should be altered to <50.000 and the poll works for me ;-)
The correct answer for the example is inflation. If you pay USD $3.75 now for a gallon of milk, and USD $4.70 for a gallon of milk at the end of the year, the BTC price could potentially move from $40k to $50k during this time without actually changing value in relation to milk.
Good thing that we are not attempting to measure bitcoin on such short timelines, otherwise we might even start to believe some of the baloney claims that BTC is correlated with the stock market and nonsense like that.
Think about the matter.
We had right around a 7x BTC price appreciation in terms of dollars since September 2020.. however, we have been experiencing a kind of lull that keeps bitcoin prices bouncing largely between 3x and 7x but ending up gravitating around 4x from that September 2020 time frame.
Yeah, maybe some folks will try to assert that using September 2020 is not very representative, and there are preferences to use some other number, and sure maybe it is possible to play those kinds of games, but if we get to 4 years or longer in our measurement timeline, there are almost no ways that you can appreciate that BTC is doing better than fiat and other assets and stocks - even property, equities (stocks) and commodities such as gold.
Yeah, some folks will try to paint disingenuine pictures by striving to pick bitcoin price peaks as the starting point (such as starting to measure from December 2017 when BTC shortly reached $19,666) and surely measuring from peaks is hardly even reflective....
So, struggle as they will to attempt to paint bitcoin as a mediocre performing asset, zooming out causes a lot of difficulties for such folks who prefer to try to remain stuck in various select short-term periods that they can spin nonsense claims... and, yeah I will admit that there are so many of us (and normies) who have a whole hell of a lot of difficulties to either plan to invest in the long term or to actually follow through with longer term executions of something like a BTC accumulation/HODLing plan.
There is nothing really in the evidence that shows that BTC is going to stop performing in stupendous ways relatively speaking - especially for folks who are able to consider their own allocations into bitcoin in terms of 4-10 years or longer from here on out.. in the event that they happen to be new to BTC or not involved in BTC for very long. The short term can feel difficult, but likely continuing investing accumulating and holding BTC for 4-10 years or longer, there is likely to be considerable and measurable differences that might not be at the same magnitudes as earlier years in bitcoin, but bitcoin is likely to continue to at least match (if not greatly exceed) various traditional ways of investing.
Nothing wrong with being hesitant about investing into BTC too.. but these days it does not hurt to start out with something like a 1% to 25% allocation into bitcoin, and then in the earlier years while investing into bitcoin, figure out more specifically how you want to particularize your ongoing investments, whether it is somewhere within a 1% to 25% range or if you want to make some other allocation into BTC based on studying and learning about BTC along the way.
don't you guys think about the opportunity of bear-market?
No coiners and whimpy investors into BTC have mentalities like that, and those mentalities have largely kept them poor (at least more poor) because they failed/refused to take an adequate and meaningful investment position into bitcoin.. and it really does not take very much of an investment in bitcoin in order to have had really benefited your overall portfolio over the years.
Just consider if you had around $100k in various traditional investments around 2016, and you had decided to diversify 10% into bitcoin.
So you are starting out with something like $90k traditional investments and $10k into bitcoin. What happens during that time?
So maybe your traditional investments end up going up to $120k
but your bitcoin ends up going up to around $60k
All of a sudden, instead of having a 10% BTC portfolio, your BTC comprises about 50% of your overall investment portfolio.
Well, if we go by your forum registration date of April 2013 bitcoinminer42, we get even more dramatic results... but let's just say that in your first year or two of being into bitcoin, you did not quite understand bitcoin so you had been a bit distracted by other nocoiner and whimpy coiner ideas.. so it took you a bit longer to figure out that maybe it could be a good idea to invest a bit of value into bitcoin.
So you have something like $100k, and you decide to take a 10% plunge into bitcoin. So similar to the above example but with a bit of a longer timeline:
In 2014/2015, you are starting out with something like $90k traditional investments and $10k into bitcoin. What happens during that timeframe?
So maybe your traditional investments end up doing very well and doubling and going up to $180k
but what happens with your bitcoin:
your bitcoin ends up going up around 40x or more to around $400k
All of a sudden, instead of having a 10% BTC portfolio, your BTC comprises about 70% of your overall investment portfolio.
These are not unrealistic numbers, and I question about whether getting excited about any kind of potential bear market in BTC gets you these kinds of results like I describe above, and I would imagine that anything that you have done through the past 9 years or so that you have been registered in this forum has not even gotten you close to the levels of results that I am describing above.
it's obviously that the most of the bored corona/covid capital is already in...
It's always obvious, until it is not.
What happens frequently in bitcoin is that people/normies believe that they know better, and they prepare for down while failing/refusing to significantly/adequately preparing for up.
having a look on the long term chart it looks more like a finger from goldman than a healthy bull formation...
You may well be looking at the wrong chart... because the way that you are talking, you come off as NOT really knowing bitcoin too well.. and you sound like either a no coiner or someone who has whimpily invested in bitcoin at various times over the years, so you have not really benefitted in any kind of material/tangible and or representative way that even comes close to the conservative/normal numbers that I describe above that would reflect a longer term bitcoin accumulator/hodler that has a timeline something like you.
Poll
