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Question: When will BTC get back above $70K:
7/14 - 0 (0%)
7/21 - 1 (0.8%)
7/28 - 11 (9.1%)
8/4 - 16 (13.2%)
8/11 - 7 (5.8%)
8/18 - 6 (5%)
8/25 - 8 (6.6%)
After August - 72 (59.5%)
Total Voters: 121

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26485211 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
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February 21, 2022, 08:01:21 AM


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February 21, 2022, 08:05:04 AM

I would merit shower hisslyness…

But a user can only send 50 merit/30 days to one single person….
At this point for the moment….

Cheers Smiley

I tossed him 10

Thanks everyone! Really appreciate it, i am just happy to be able to contribute!!

I started going down this Bitcoin path alone back in late 2013, as everyone i knew thought i was nuts!!... and i am still somewhat alone...

However, I am glad i found this place!

This! We are still damn early guys... Cool
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February 21, 2022, 08:12:47 AM

I went down this journey to better understand LN from a technical point of view, not from a Bob and Alice simple view, but under the hood, how channels are opened and closed. How payment routing really works. I almost got lost and threw the towel in after the 1st week, but then remembered why I chose to run a LN node.

#LNMETA

These two lines summaries it in a perfect way... same thing happened to me thank you for explaining it in an excellent simple way for us like Bobs and Alices !
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February 21, 2022, 09:01:26 AM


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February 21, 2022, 09:21:45 AM
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I would merit shower hisslyness…

But a user can only send 50 merit/30 days to one single person….
At this point for the moment….

Cheers Smiley

I tossed him 10

Thanks everyone! Really appreciate it, i am just happy to be able to contribute!!

I started going down this Bitcoin path alone back in late 2013, as everyone i knew thought i was nuts!!... and i am still somewhat alone...

However, I am glad i found this place!

Can you provide some overview of your backstory?  I cannot recall it.  Did you start by mining or buying or some other way? Of course, no need to jeopardize Opsec.. so feel free to include a bit of creativity to the extent you feel helpful.  

Your timeline is similar to mine.. so with me, I had some spark under my butt starting in July/August/September 2013 in terms of researching into some various kinds of ways of investing.. and so I had tabbed bitcoin somewhere in that process as "something to look at later," so in late 2013, I had already taken some actions regarding some other investments - which caused me even greater relief that I had gotten that part off of my plate.. so bitcoin remained "tabbed" as something to get to.. but not really thinking too much about it..


..... until around the middle of November 2013.. this very young chap online (not in this forum) was bragging how smart he was because he was largely becoming rich from his bitcoin investment.. and I thought that he does not know what the fuck he is talking about.. but it triggered me to look into my bitcoin related bookmarks that were still sitting there... so several hours of initially looking into some of the overview information that I had and then I ended up spending several days reading more and then engaged in a kind of reconsideration of what I had invested into in the previous couple of months.. and my research/investigation started me to think:
.. "hm?  I should have put that just invested money into bitcoin.. bitcoin would serve as a better investment hedge than some of the various low-fee funds that I had chosen.".. ..

which thereby triggered me into coming up with a 6-month BTC investment plan.. and I already posted quite a bit about those various aspects of my early execution of my bitcoin investment plan... so I don't want to trigger too much repetition backlash at this moment... unless anyone asks any specific questions of me..


and I guess part of my compare/contrast attempt with you hisslyness seems to be that I had never really been much into any of the technical aspects such as getting into mining or running nodes and things like that.. but I surely cannot fault anyone from either taking those kinds of routes (and especially the running node does seem like something that a lot of us should be considering whether bitcoin/lightning network or both) or even exploring some of the frustrating parts of maintaining lighting channels.. which for sure would have taken off more as a practice (topic) in recent times - even though the earliest of the brave lighting folks would have been involved in lightning network testnet in 2017 and maybe even getting involved in lightning going live (against the recommendation of a lot of BTC developers) in early 2018- which a lot of that I have so far been exploring from quite a distance even though I find it interesting that guys like you are here and spending some time to share information and experiences with others in this thread about some of those intricacies.. and sometimes even frustrations around learning about those angles of bitcoin..

To really understand my back-story and understand why I did what I did to ultimately land in the position I am in, you have to go way back to my childhood.

I grew with computers around me, had our first 386 when I was 10 years old. This was a big deal, Mum new we needed exposure as this was the way of the future!  She worked and saved and finally bought our first computer!... We stayed up all night playing lemmings...

Fast forward a few more years and my brothers and I started our own business (Wasn’t a real incorporated business, if you know what I mean?), re-selling, servicing and repairing computers. This was great as it gave us access to new hardware and software and the ability to tinker and play! I learnt so much from those years!

When the internet finally arrived here! Did that changed everything! Access to a whole new world!

While some experimented with drugs, I experimented with Tech! Most people where using Windows, I was dabbling with Linux of all flavours and a little known operating system called BeOS.  (i’d seen a post on it here a few pages back and it reminded me) . Never really played with OS/2 as for some reason I couldn’t get my hands on it!

I always had a saying, understand the Core Fundamentals of IT, and it doesn’t matter what they bring out, you will master it! As it is mostly based around those Core Fundamentals!

<Lots more interesting stuff... Warez Groups/Courier Groups.. Fast Cars... Wife and Kids... maybe another time!!!>

How did Bitcoin find me? or rather how did I find Bitcoin?

August 2013 was an eye opener, I'd stumble upon Bitcoin while researching for another project. I glanced over the white paper, but me being me, I needed hands on experience to fully understand it! Mining, what is mining? So many questions and always the same explanations... solving equations... I thought bullshit that can’t be right...

On and off through the 2013. Experimenting with CPU and GPU mining and understanding what was really going on under the hood.

Finally decided I was going to mine Bitcoin at a larger scale. I had a plan and it seemed rock solid! Tried to get some friends involved but they looked at me like I was nuts!

Worst timing as well. Bitcoin was making new ATH and the pricing of second hand mining equipment keep going up with it! I finally picked up some ASIC machines at the Mid January 2014.

Made some mistakes, bought 3 x CoinTerra TerraMiners, all with overheating issues! Spent countless hours trying to fix its faulty water cooler system!  I think the Antminer S1 and S2 saved my arse from total failure!

My calculations were projecting one thing and my results were saying another thing!

As the saying goes, during a gold rush, the only people who made money were the ones selling the picks and shovels. Let me tell you what, I fully understand that!

I hope the back-story above explains why I didn’t just buy Bitcoin with the money I had invested in ASIC machines/Running Cost and Infrastructure to go with it. Would I have been better off, Yes, but if you live your life always wondering what if, you’ll end up regretting everything you do!

Ultimately the knowledge I gained is priceless.

On another note, equal respect given, JayJuanGee, tech or no tech! It is amazing how we have both taken different paths, but ended up with similar outcomes and conclusions!

That’s my story!.. Hopefully my OpSec is safe!..
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February 21, 2022, 10:01:21 AM


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February 21, 2022, 10:46:15 AM
Last edit: February 21, 2022, 07:53:25 PM by BobLawblaw
Merited by El duderino_ (6), cAPSLOCK (3), vapourminer (2), JayJuanGee (1), Torque (1), Paashaas (1), AlcoHoDL (1)

Bob, i hope this isn't the last time you go down this rabbit hole!
It won't be. Plan to revisit in at least another 18 months.

#LNMETA

Some more thoughts on being a top 250 LND node op... Again...

- This was a good learning experience, compared to my first experience of needing to hand-roll all the LND/c-lightning stuff from source, and compile bitcoind with zmq support. Throwing A LOT more liquidity at it this time really helped me get a sense of what it takes to be a big boi on the Lightning Network

- Learned more about the "quantum" state of liquidity. Eg: LOOP experiments draining my liquidity, putting in a "quantum state", where I can't regain that bound liquidity for use, until I wrap everything up via "lncli closeallchannels" sorta deal

- Avoid LOOP. It's a liquidity drain, and pure profit chasing - Opened 3 wumbo channels with LOOP before I learned my lesson of avoiding them entirely. Was pissed off all that liquidity was lost to me in "quantum space"

- Many nodes are parasites (like LOOP) - They will drain all your liquidity to their side, and nothing flows back your way in some cases (ln.nicehash), to even get you back into organic balance. LOOP being the most egregious, because they will just close your channel on you when they've sucked enough liquidity out of you, and don't even have the fucking decency to leave the channel open, for you to recoup routes back your way. Pure vampirism and it disgusts me.

- Was very impressed with Umbrel. Was a bit disappointed to learn about the apparent background drama of Umbrel pretty much being a clone of another popular distro (RaspiBlitz?) but they've really added a good layer of polish onto node distros, and love the ability to reset your node back to it's "last good known state" just by entering your Umbrel seed words.

- With the increased popularity of Umbrel, and other very well maintained node distros, Lightning looks like it's really shaping up well in terms of "now everyone can run a server" - It's as simple as getting a Raspi4, a 2TB SSD drive, half a brain, and you can start having fun dipping your toes into Lightning, pretty safely and cheaply.

- Rebalancing: Absolute nightmare. After further consideration, with Rick having looked over the scripts, and understanding the nature of what it's doing and the problems that need to be solved, it's not an easy problem, mostly owing to the constantly fluctuating state of the network.

 Every channel you are trying to rebalance has to get tested across MANY routes. Some of them good, some of them bad. Due to a function of how the LN works, you *HAVE* to check every node, on every route, every time - and there are A LOT of bad nodes out there that are not responsive, and the rebalancers don't remember the state of which nodes are bad, when balancing from one channel to the next one, because - well, the nodes could have popped back up again since you last checked - Needs more logic for how to handle "bad" peers organically. The onus is on the person running the script, to exclude nodes to check, and when you have 100+ channels, fuck that hand-management reconciliation noise.

- I was definitely chasing profits. This is what was leading to the stress in my life, overall, and it was starting to impact me in meatspace pretty badly. I'm not satisfied "just leaving" something to run. If I'm going to run a node, I'm going to be an active manager, and look at this like getting into mining for profit. Don't have any interest in passively running a LN node. I'm either going to do it right, or not at all. Chasing LN node profits was more frustrating than running a mining farm - A comparative cakewalk.

- Meatspace is becoming increasingly complex for me for a little bit, and running the node was becoming negative energy, that I am desperately seeking to rid my life of, at this stage.

- Torque basically summed it up best
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February 21, 2022, 11:00:17 AM
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February 21, 2022, 11:01:22 AM


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February 21, 2022, 11:39:28 AM


[...]


BCash is actually lower in price now than it was during the flippening. Everyone should have dumped it back then immediately.

Exactly. I wonder how BCH/BSV holders feel now...

HoDLing BTC, and only BTC, has proven, time and time again, to be the optimal strategy. Simple recipe, few ingredients, great profits, and support for a greater cause. Just add time.
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February 21, 2022, 11:42:17 AM

What is this dump all about? Haven't seen any more negative Ukraine news. Maybe the Fed is back at it again
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February 21, 2022, 12:01:28 PM


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February 21, 2022, 12:37:12 PM

Bulgaria you are almost there…!!!

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February 21, 2022, 01:01:22 PM


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February 21, 2022, 01:54:57 PM

Bob, i hope this isn't the last time you go down this rabbit hole!

It won't be. Plan to revisit in at least another 18 months.

You better!!!  You ended up with almost 0.15 of my BTC!

Which really just increased my incoming liquidity a significant portion on both nodes!  So it is all good! I am just messing.  In fact this was one of the realizations that helped me over the hump i think made you frustrated.

Individual channel balance is ONE thing... but overall NODE balance is another, and arguably more important.  Stagnant channels are what I have begun to look at with the horse eye... but on the other hand they are not really HURTING anything.  And I have had channels about the size of ours chronically end up on one side of the string, and then BOOM sweep back over on their own accord...

Anyway... I will keep looking at channel management over the next 18 months with a current eye to just letting the node manage itself for a while.  And I will let you know what I learn in 18m or whenever!
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February 21, 2022, 02:00:54 PM

Given everything going on in my life, managing a LN node is more negative, parasitic energy that has complicated my life beyond any rational measure.

I need to step away, for my own mental health and sanity.

Geez - I've been away for several quarters, and the news don't change. AKA history repeats

Managing high end technology issues -which will be resolved irrevocable in the foreseeable future- in Bob's current stressful personal life - he just needs a break to get things sorted- has nothing to do with supporting your beloved bCash SV, which has plummeted to oblivion, like we all expected it that history will repeat itself endlessly with all shitcoins. Giving that, youre shattered shitcoin dreams meets harsh reality while Lightning is vigorous flourishing in all metrics like never before.



Aww, jbreher is back for 5 minutes and you smack him!  C'mon...  at least let him get in ONE jab first. Smiley
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February 21, 2022, 02:01:22 PM


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February 21, 2022, 02:16:42 PM

OT: https://twitter.com/OzraeliAvi/status/1495163814412951552

Wow, so if a Canadian peaceful protester decides to just go home, the police will still hunt you down and persecute you without cause or justification? What a dystopian, Orwellian nightmare police state that Canada has now become.

I hate to say it, but Canada is now making Commiefornia look like an ideal place to live.

And I'm sure we won't be seeing any George Floyd style protests for this poor guy or any outrage from the MSM, probably because he miraculously lived.  Roll Eyes

https://youtu.be/7BoWKMmwloo?t=10


"We’re from the government and we’re here to keep you safe from Covid."


The part that is really starting to worry me is the fact that so many Canadians (and Americans) are supporting this, and even more that the majority of people (everywhere) do not see that this is not about a protest.  This is a planned action.  A takeover.  And it is probably just the opening act of the plan in this hemisphere.

Joe Biden famously said that the second amendment does not protect you if you are fighting the Nuclear weapon wielding US military.
Quote
What’s happened is that there have never been — if you wanted or if you think you need to have weapons to take on the government, you need F-15s and maybe some nuclear weapons.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/06/23/remarks-by-president-biden-and-attorney-general-garland-on-gun-crime-prevention-strategy/

Well, Mr. "President".  You will need to send one of your jets to my home then.

Where he is wrong is the fact that some of us have decided that if it comes to it we will call that bet, and we will die fighting.   I am one of those.  I would rather be remembered by my descendants as someone who fought against the tyranny than as a coward that stood by as evil men tried to take control of the world.

I have begun preparing for this possibility, and will be as ready as possible.  My biggest hope is that there will be members of the military and police of western democracies who will also stand up.  That includes any of you three letter people reading this.  And I have no desire to die or even fight, but I will.  I also hope my state considers taking a stand if the time comes.

Currently, personally I have only met a very few of my GenX brethren that see it... the boomers are too busy trying to suck up as much new money as possible, and the Millennials and Zoomers are rolling out the red carpet for the communists.  Hopefully it is not just my nihilist generation that is left to save the west... lol.
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February 21, 2022, 02:33:24 PM
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oh and tons of tear gas and rubber bullets.  good memories.

I remember when they did this outside the white house just so Trump could take a stroll down the road and hold up a bible outside a church, good memories indeed  Cheesy

Keep playing the "my side good, your side bad" game to the very end if you want the plan that is unfolding to work.  The polarization of every kind of group has been building for decades, and it too is part of the plan to destroy the west.
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February 21, 2022, 02:45:52 PM

Not only is Bitcoin NOT fungible it is ABSOLUTELY NOT fungible from a pure mathematical aspect.  EVERY satoshi has a pedigree.  You can trace it's origin all the way to the coinbase it was initially realized in.  And you can see the trail of addresses it is passed through to wherever it currently rests.

Before you get all mad at me, and Batslap me... I am NOT making a case for a shitcoin.  I am just being honest about a feature of bitcoin that we need to come to grips with, and the sooner we do the better.

Careful there, brother - you're deviating from the anointed canon. You might be drawn and quartered over the coals.

Yea, yeah.  I know.  I do try to respect this thread's bias (or basic thesis), and agree with it for the vast most part.  AND I think privacy in bitcoin is VERY IMPORTANT to fight for.  So I bring it up trying to speak as little for the one shitcoin I like... but of course that shitcoin comes up because well... it is doing something important.  Buy again, I try to avoid stirring that up in here very much, lol... I may have overstepped a little this time.  Ah well.
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