Also, those who say why not bet on this if you are too sure, I don't trade. I look for opportunities to buy.
Your forum registration date is pretty damned recent, ImThour..,. March 2020.. which actually would have been a pretty good time to get into bitcoin and to get into bitcoin BIGgedly... but surely so many people got scared from events around March 2020.. and likely had some troubles psychologically (and perhaps financially as well) to jump into bitcoin BIGgedly at that time.
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You summed up pretty fair, JJG.
I am more of a Buy Low, Sell High guy who might miss the train because of his **targets**. I bought my first Bitcoin in 2020 August, sold in April at 54k. I made some profits.
I am sure if you look at all those guys who sold BTC at $1, they didn't knew how far it will go.
Frequently, it can be quite difficult to know where to go with some of the discussion with you because frequently it is really difficult to believe if anyone could really think the way that you do.. but I will concede that from time to time, I meet similar kinds of people in real life too.. so I have a tendency to lose my patience frequently, even in real life..
You know if we are facing someone face to face in real life, it can be really difficult to present matters too confrontationally because sometimes it can just feel cruel, self-righteous and/or even imposing upon the other person.. so sometimes, there will be avoidance going on because many of us likely don't want to be confronting people in real life who we feel just purposefully seem to be not getting it.. and just keeps doing his own thing like as if no information sinks in...
So, I am not sure if there can be some benefits to having these conversations over the interwebs because sometimes we might say things that we would not say in person.. we might just walk away and say.. have fun staying poor... blah blah blah..
Attempting to get to the substance, there is absolutely nothing wrong with aiming to buy low and to sell high... and really, you should not be selling any of your BTC unless that portion of your portfolio is in profits. Of course, there are a decent number of us who proclaim that bitcoin is a long term investment, so don't be fucking around with selling and/or thinking about selling anyhow, especially in the short-term.,. and especially not before you really establish a decent-sized stash.. .. so part of the tension with us would be your concerns about following the short term price so closely, and even if it could make some difference in getting a lower entry point such as $25k instead of $35k, if your investment timeline is long enough... it may not be worth the risk of waiting for a $25k that does not end up happening and perfectly well you could have gotten in at $35k and you end up fucking around by waiting and waiting and waiting for some lower price point that does not end up happening.. and maybe later you end up having to reformulate your entrance price point when you are waiting for a dip to $75k when the BTC price is at $92k.. and yeah, maybe you will later buy the dip, but you should have just bought earlier at $35k.
Another thing in regards to selling is that there are various ways of calculating the extent to which you are in profits, and you could average out all of your coins and lock yourself into one price for your calculations or you could have a mixture of coins in which they have different buy prices that allow you to consider differing tactics to sell portions of your holdings based on which portions of your stash you are accounting to be in profits or sufficiently in profits in order for you to sell in order to either lock in your dollar profits at that price or to consider possibly to buy back lower with those profits... again.. if you are considering long term, you may well still need to consider whether it is worth the risk to sell any - absent your potentially having some kind of a cashflow emergency that you feel that you need to deal with that causes you to sell (or shave some profits off).
It is quite likely that over the years, there have been more people who have learned to consider bitcoin as a long-term investment rather than a short-term trading in and out, so for sure you are going to be able to point out a lot of examples of prior BTC HODLers who sold too many BTC too soon.... and that seems to justify NOT to do what they did instead you are proud because you had been able to time one of the BTC price swings from $10k to $54k with some recognition of profits.
Many of us know that even if you are "in profits" in the short run, you are playing a very dangerous game if you believe that ongoingly you are going to be able to increase your bitcoin stash by trading high amounts of it like the way you are describing your already existing success.
I couldn't stop myself from taking the profits however I never went back, I have been digging so hard in analysis and finding ways to get the best possible price so that I can live a financial freedom life which I think most of you are already living (WO is filled with veterans of BitcoinTalk).
That is ridiculous to be attempting to compare yourself to long-term bitcoiners who might be in profits or trying to catch up.
Another thing is that you cannot necessarily presume that longer term bitcoiners ended up profiting or even had performance that was competitive with a DCA'ing strategy. There are quite a few who fucked up and underperformed in lot of ways.. and sometimes due to greed... and yeah there are some guys who might have had 5x profits, but if they had just bought and held (or DCA'ed) they might have had 40x to 60x in profits.. so surely there can be some difficulties to find some of the earlier WOs who had lost a lot....
Oh, and another aspect is that there could be some WO members who could have easily had BTC portfolios of 20BTC to 50BTC or more, but instead they hardly have any BTC.. maybe 5-10 BTC or even less than 5 BTC because they were not able to prioritize their hanging onto their coins, and they were thinking about taking profits in dollars or some other way.. including some investments (or consumption) that may have played out way inferior to holding and accumulating bitcoin... or deferring gratification because 4-10 years later their bitcoin would have had way more purchasing power than investing in dollars or some other dollar based assets.
It's not same for most of us who recently jumped up in this Crypto Bus and we do have different perspective as compared to you big boys.
Dangerous way of thinking...
I have frequently asserted that there are decent likelihoods for bitcoin to accelerate a guy's ability to get to fuck you status or even to ensure that a guy is able to get to fuck you status rathe than being stuck in the ratt race his whole life.. and still in a dependency state (with not too many options) when he reaches his 60s and 70s, but you can still fuck it up with bitcoin if you attempt to rush your getting rich too quick... ..
In traditional systems, it could take 30-40 years to get to a point in which your various investments have sufficiently paid off, and hey I already told my story of having had already invested 20 years before getting to bitcoin, and I thought that i had done fairly o.k.. with an average of 5.5% per year for each of those years, so I had built a pretty decent nest egg prior to getting into bitcoin.. but still when we think about our current levels of inflation, my traditional investments had surely lost a lot of their purchasing power.. and maybe in recent times, some property (real estate) might have done way better than the 5.5% historical average that i had achieved...
Between late 2013 and even into early 2017, my overall BTC performance was not in profits and when it did get to be in profits it was barely comparing to that 5.5% historical rate.. but then surely it did pay off to wait the whole matter through and to have been continuing to invest in BTC and continue to accumulate.. because the BTC portion ended up dwarfing the various traditional investments. .. and yeah, it can take some time to play out.. and to get the returns and if you think that your fucking around with your portfolio is going to help you to outperform a DCA strategy or an ongoing BTC accumulation strategy.. that does not tend to happen very often in BTC landia.. and some of those guys end up with hardly any BTC and not being sufficiently in when the surprise upward moments end up playing out (and you better have had been in during those surprise upward moments)..
My analysis is always my own perspective and I post here because there is no one else in my life who understands this.
I get a lot of criticism and I still come back here to post my shitty trendlines and weird Elliot Waves because this is the only place I can express myself.
Nothing wrong with that - and sure sometimes you have some reasonable takes.. but sometimes, your takes are really outlandish causing a lot of us (including yours truly) to conclude that you are not even trying to be genuine. As I already mentioned, I am not even proclaiming that some of your seemingly outrageous scenarios might not end up happening, and sure maybe they have way higher odds than my own assignment, but like I already mentioned, it can be quite irritating to see how preposterous some of your claims are and you are asserting them as if they had some high level of certainty.
By the way, there are likely none of us who are spouting out our own ideas completely, otherwise we would really be in fantasylandia.. so in that regard, each of us have our various schools of influence, and surely maybe some of us are more chart oriented than others, and sure maybe some of us feel that we can come up with our own chart interpretations, but frequently we have our various influences and tools that we bring to the table that we likely got from the work and thoughts of others.. I am not trying to take away from some of your individual interpretations or feelings about the market, which may well happen from time to time.. and surely we have had guys spouting out planetary body theories in this thread, and you may be able to imagine the level of their receptivity.
My long term thought about BTC is bullish and will remain same till the day I exist. It's just I love finding opportunities to buy. I am sure some of you might relate and some of you will find this stupid.
Some of us consider that you lack in genuineness.. even if you might be long term bullish and short term bearish.. .. by the way, think about if your descending line chart (starting from $20k and going down from there, were actually true? You could not be long-term bullish and believe in that chart at the same time. Sure, if we went straight down to $20k right now, then we would reach the 200-week moving average, so that is surely within the realm of reasonableness that we could end up reaching the 200-week moving average price.... but the 200-week moving average has always gone up in bitcoin (at least so far), so if you believe that there is a trend line that goes down and must be touched.. but you are using the 200-week moving average price as your current starting point, you seem to be pie in the sky delusional.
Another thing is that historically, bitcoin's 200-week moving average has usually ONLY been touched or dipped below during bear markets, and I know that some people believe that bitcoin is currently in a bear market, so if that bear market ends up being true, then that makes the 200-week moving average more reasonable as a touching point bottom.. It is quite likely that our March 2020 dipping below the 200-week moving average was during a bitcoin bull market.. and so yeah, at that time, the 200-week moving average was around $5,500, so we can look at the charts and see that the BTC price was below the 200-week moving average for nearly 2 weeks...
It would not be completely unheard of for the 200-week moving average to have some periods of actually moving down, especially as bitcoin matures and if there ends up being long periods of flat performance and/or negative BTC price performance... but it is quite a bit outlandish and outrageous to just presume that bitcoin is going to move to that kind of posture without being broken in some kind of a way. Furthermore, I can understand that some guys might believe that the world is currently filled with doom and gloom circumstances that must end up playing out, so in that regard, there needs to be a BIG dip below the 200-week moving average to set us back up on our course of UPpity.. which also seems to be ridiculous.. even though it is not outside of the realm of what could happen.. whether 5% or 1% or maybe some other probability level?
Since the current 200-week moving average is at $20k and the current BTC price is bouncing between $35k and $40k, you can imagine the 200-week moving average is continuing to move up.. to drift up ... up and up and up... .. so yeah, if the BTC price did a 50% drop then we would be right at the 200-week moving average and the 200-week moving average would go up at a less rapid rate.. and the BTC price would actually have to go below the 200-week moving average to cause it to start to flatten out and to even go down.. which so far has not happened in bitcoin (even though it is not impossible.. you have to consider how high on the unlikeliness category) in order to be contemplating BTC prices that either go down to the 200-week moving average, spike below it or are sustained below the 200-week moving average for any period of time.. and if you actually believe that those kinds of scenarios are possible, it would be difficult to believe that something about bitcoin would not be broken in those kinds of scenarios.
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