Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Hueristic]

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. have been purchasing beaten-down company bonds tied to Russia in recent days, as hedge funds that specialize in buying cheap credit look to load up on the assets, according to people with knowledge of the private transactions.

Fucking pieces of shit.

https://archive.ph/2022.03.04-081012/https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-03/wall-street-is-already-pouncing-on-russia-s-cheap-corporate-debt

This is not without risk. Third party risk of the highest order.
If had a predatory mind, I'd simply have shorted the shit out of some "Russia financial" ETF.

The cocksuckers will just figure out how to have the taxpayers bail them in that case.

[1714763840]

1714763840

[1714763840]

1714763840

[1714763840]

1714763840

[1714763840]

1714763840

[somac.]

I know we all hate Raoul Pal around here but this is still a good thread.

https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI/status/1499782038085271553?cxt=HHwWgoCsyaj0pdApAAAA

The massive rise in food and energy prices have caused an enormous tightening of financial conditions, along with the liquidity issues of de-platforming Russia. The 2/10’s swaps curve is at 15bps and will hit zero soon, showing how tight conditions really are. 1/

The odds of rate hikes are falling fast because hiking rates into a supply shock just exacerbates what is likely to become a global recession as the Russia situation will not get solved fast. Demand will erode fast at these prices too.

Europe is now in a hot mess. I think there is a decent chance of MMT style handouts to cover food and energy costs. This could be a global thing. It was the new trick that the governments and CB’s learned in 2020. How else do they deal with the obliteration of household finances?

I think it also accelerates green energy commitment, a global deal with Iran and a shift towards Morocco (manufacturing) and Algeria (gas) as regional further splinter into more regionalised supply chains they can control easier (I.e not Russia or China)

The right trades here remain gold and crypto (no one’s liability), bonds and dollars. One sniff of a change in CB’s use of balance sheet and crypto explodes again but patience required.

The entire set up is very similar to March 2020 for crypto. Let’s see if it makes a new low

But traditional recession trades outside of crypto will be very very useful.

No one owns enough bonds and gold. Dollars will get trickier soon as the Fed start the global swap line spigot.

Good luck out there. These are dark times.

[d_eddie]

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. have been purchasing beaten-down company bonds tied to Russia in recent days

Fucking pieces of shit.

https://archive.ph/2022.03.04-081012/https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-03/wall-street-is-already-pouncing-on-russia-s-cheap-corporate-debt

This is not without risk. Third party risk of the highest order.

The cocksuckers will just figure out how to have the taxpayers bail them in that case.

You mean USA taxpayers or Ruskies?

The Russian government isn't going to be overeager to pay back debt into nazi, imperialist America.
The USA government could have a few doubts about paying back Russian debt to fellow Americans who "were dealing with Russia" in the heat of war.

But after thinking it over for a while, I hate to say it - you may be right, they could succeed.

[ivomm]

500 mln newly opened futures longs in the last day in Binance. This is calling for a new long squeeze. They missed the train last week, so they will try to catch it in motion. Good luck, n00bs! After they are liquidated I expect next week to get to 50K.

Well, this wasn't hard to predict. The usual long squeeze tax n00bs are paying to the casinos exchanges. Nothing to see here, move along!

Have those longs been closed out yet? Regardless I doubt 50k next week, but back into the 40s would be nice.

Liquidated and stop loss closed. Nobody can tell the real number of realised losses in general. There are some indicators like glassnode stats or more basic like https://blockchainwhispers.com/bitmex-position-calculator#. Nobody can count stop losses and margin trades, which in fact determine the price in Binance. I suppose that those 500mil from earlier are liquidated/closed and the new 200 mil knife catching longs are being squeezed on the way. In the last year, the minimal volume of futures longs on Binance typically was around 1.3-1.5 bil. When in a short period like 2 days it jumps to 2 bil it is an indicator that the same is happening with margin trades. Basically this means that 500mil are waiting to cash out on 1-2% price increase. Which can happen only if there is some major buyer. If those traders make an effort to look at the volume, they will understand that there is no way a 500mil sale to allow the price to increase. And when there is no price increase, the sells are starting to tip the balance causing a domino effect of closing high leverage longs. The funny thing is that there were literally 0 volume longs activity before and during the pump last  week. So these losers are quite miserable and addicted to making the same mistakes over and over again. For now it seems that most of them are liquidated, so the recovery to 45K shouldn't be a problem. 50K might look too far for now, but definitely doable in 2-3 weeks.

[d_eddie]

Fuck bears.

I would advise against that - it may result in more bears.

Only if it was bears who actually do the fucking.

For example, if the fucking were done instead by... say, a whale, ...

 

OMG

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[d_eddie]

here is where i am at..maybe a decent bottle of champagne

Careful if it makes you feel too happy.

https://news.sky.com/story/champagne-spiked-with-ecstasy-kills-one-man-and-leaves-seven-people-in-hospital-12542340

I'm calling bullshit on this - something's not right.
Any "significant" concentration of MDMA, enough to be able to "kill a man", will make the champagne bitter AF.

[proudhon]

In all seriousness, has btc ever looked this gloomy...ever? We've got an absolutely massive double top drawn out over <checks notes> 1 year, pathetic volume over the last 6 months, every good reason to flee to the safety of fiat currencies like the secure dollar, and a huge bearish correction baked in from the double top formation compounded by very strong risk off winds blowing against things like a dying btc. If there's ever been a clearer short signal, I don't know of it. I could maybe see btc above $50k again in 2050 when the collector's market takes over, but then $50k will probably buy a jar of pickles.

[d_eddie]

Fuck bears.

I would advise against that - it may result in more bears.

For example, if the fucking were done instead by... say, a whale, ...

Speak of the devil...

Proudhon, your beartroll discourse is up a notch. Congrats. But the timing, the timing! Come on... you should have waited a bit, even just a week or two.

[OutOfMemory]

here is where i am at..maybe a decent bottle of champagne

Careful if it makes you feel too happy.

https://news.sky.com/story/champagne-spiked-with-ecstasy-kills-one-man-and-leaves-seven-people-in-hospital-12542340

I'm calling bullshit on this - something's not right.
Any "significant" concentration of MDMA, enough to be able to "kill a man", will make the champagne bitter AF.

And sour too.
But i have seen peeps collapsing on much less.
Not pure MDMA, for sure

BTC going down, yawn...

[OutOfMemory]

May i introduce to you...

[somac.]

500 mln newly opened futures longs in the last day in Binance. This is calling for a new long squeeze. They missed the train last week, so they will try to catch it in motion. Good luck, n00bs! After they are liquidated I expect next week to get to 50K.

Well, this wasn't hard to predict. The usual long squeeze tax n00bs are paying to the casinos exchanges. Nothing to see here, move along!

Have those longs been closed out yet? Regardless I doubt 50k next week, but back into the 40s would be nice.

Liquidated and stop loss closed. Nobody can tell the real number of realised losses in general. There are some indicators like glassnode stats or more basic like https://blockchainwhispers.com/bitmex-position-calculator#. Nobody can count stop losses and margin trades, which in fact determine the price in Binance. I suppose that those 500mil from earlier are liquidated/closed and the new 200 mil knife catching longs are being squeezed on the way. In the last year, the minimal volume of futures longs on Binance typically was around 1.3-1.5 bil. When in a short period like 2 days it jumps to 2 bil it is an indicator that the same is happening with margin trades. Basically this means that 500mil are waiting to cash out on 1-2% price increase. Which can happen only if there is some major buyer. If those traders make an effort to look at the volume, they will understand that there is no way a 500mil sale to allow the price to increase. And when there is no price increase, the sells are starting to tip the balance causing a domino effect of closing high leverage longs. The funny thing is that there were literally 0 volume longs activity before and during the pump last  week. So these losers are quite miserable and addicted to making the same mistakes over and over again. For now it seems that most of them are liquidated, so the recovery to 45K shouldn't be a problem. 50K might look too far for now, but definitely doable in 2-3 weeks.

Yeah it amazes me how often this same mistake is made over and over again. I would really love to know who these people are who keep doing this. Average Joes maybe, rich fools who were given their money rather than earning it? it would certainly be an interesting study.

45k is ok by me too, and 3 weeks till 50k, yeah I could handle that.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[cAPSLOCK]

The absolute level of backwards craziness the universe has risen to...

[sirazimuth]

In all seriousness, has btc ever looked .....<snipped... the usual llama laughable logic>

Whoa! Looks like Llama Llama has stepped it up a notch.  Some serious bullishness here folks.

[somac.]

The absolute level of backwards craziness the universe has risen to...

Don't know if any of you guys listen to Macrovoices, but Erik Townsend has been talking about this for a couple years now. The wallstreet push with ESG has meant gross underinvestment in fossil fuel exploration and producing. Being that the world still relies very heavily on these fuels this increase in price since the covid lows has been baked in. These things are commodities though so the solution to the high prices is higher prices.

[Millionero]

For a couple of days now:
500 - Internal server error - Bitcoin Charts

If this keeps happening I'm going to be looking for a way to look at charts that's super easy like bitcoincharts was.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Hueristic]

In all seriousness, has btc ever looked this gloomy...ever? We've got an absolutely massive double top drawn out over <checks notes> 1 year, pathetic volume over the last 6 months, every good reason to flee to the safety of fiat currencies like the secure dollar, and a huge bearish correction baked in from the double top formation compounded by very strong risk off winds blowing against things like a dying btc. If there's ever been a clearer short signal, I don't know of it. I could maybe see btc above $50k again in 2050 when the collector's market takes over, but then $50k will probably buy a jar of pickles.

Ready.