Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JorgeStolfi]

The market obviously is uncertain on the ban being real or not.  There are no confirmations and all media pointedly refer to Caixin as the (only) source. 

However one cannot easily dismiss it as a hoax:

* The reporter is not anonymous, stands by the report, and Caixin seems to be a respectable source.  Moreover the reporter claims to have seen the document, not just heard about it.  And his middle name is not "McGrath"  .

* I have not seen anyone question the plausibility of the ban or its details (e.g. the 15-day withdrawal-only period, and the explicit inclusion of the CEOs' personal bank accounts).  If it is a hoax, it seems to be carefully crafted to sound very "PBoC-like".

* The PBoC had one full day to issue a denial, but did not, in spite of much asking and media attention.  In contrast, when similar rumors circulated on Mar/21, the PBoC denied ir on the same day through its "twitter" (weibo) account.

* When this new report was first published, OKCoin's CEO emphatically dismissed it as a hoax and condemned those who use such methods etc.  I have not seen any more statements like that, it seems that the exchange operators are now unsure, too.

* The rumor is repeated on the website of China's main state TV network, and presumably was bradcast by them.  It seems strange that they would report a leaked PBoC document without checking and getting an OK from the bank.

On the other hand, the Mar/21 rumors and the Caixin article do seem to refer to the same thing, a "strenghtening of regulations" decided by the PBoC around Mar/18.   Perhaps the document shown to Caixin was only a working draft, that in the end was not approved by PBoC.  Or perhaps the ban was still under discussion on Mar/21 (hence the denial), but is now approved (hence the lack of denial).

Or perhaps the reporter was duped by a corrupt official.  Besides the traders who long for cheap coins, I can imagine a couple other ways in which a large temporary price drop would be extremely profitable to certain people.

On the other hand, if the ban is real, perhaps it was leaked on purpose, to soften the expected reaction from the bitcoin trading community.  Namely, if the ban is officially confirmed  on Monday, most traders will be already half-resigned to it.

[billyjoeallen]

Let's say hypothetically that the ban is real. How much of that has already been priced in? Price has been dropping for four months since the first ban rumors. I'm almost hoping it's real because like Gox and Silk Road, we can finally get past it.

Why is it so hard to imagine that we will test 380-400 before establishing a bottom?

That isn't hard to imagine. It's entirely possible. If that's what it takes to turn the market for good, I could live with that.

[fonzie]

Breaking News:

If no one buys we won´t go up  

If no one sells, we won't go down.

I have to think about that, but there might be some truth in it.
For now, Chona started dumpin a little bit. We´ll see how low this will go.

[boumalo]

...
Is the news bogus? There is certainly reason to believe it may not be.

Some reason more significant than repeats of a single article that contained no proof or references?

It wasn't a single article and it was also reported by one of the most respected news sources in China.

More respected than Newsweek? Please.

Tv in China is watch by hundreds of millions of people and articles are read by hundreds of millions of people as well

There is 1B of people in America and 4 in Asia...The center of the world is already Asia and it will be even more Asia as time pass by in the 21th century

You're missing the point. Sometimes the story is wrong, even if it's a major news source, even if other news sources regurgitate it.

Yes of course it is; I don't know what will be the extend of the ban in China but I doubt Newsweek know more than a Chinese newspaper

Let's say hypothetically that the ban is real. How much of that has already been priced in? Price has been dropping for four months since the first ban rumors. I'm almost hoping it's real because like Gox and Silk Road, we can finally get past it.

I agree with you there; while there is all this negativity new businesses are accepting Bitcoin, adopton is growing, the financial sector is domming itself with its malpractices and a lot of young smart minds are tiding themselves with Bitcoin building infrastructure and innovating so within a year we won't even remember mt gox or even China ban and we will see a price in 5digits or approaching 5 digits

[derpinheimer]

Breaking News:

If no one buys we won´t go up  

If no one sells, we won't go down.

I have to think about that, but there might be some truth in it.
For now, Chona started dumpin a little bit. We´ll see how low this will go.

3600B mined a day. Selling wont stop.

[creekbore]

Mornin' all!!

Can't really be arsed reading back through 20 odd pages but I think I get the idea from the last couple: cultists have their fingers in their ears, Chessnut clinging to EW for comfort while TERA is a lone voice of reason along with...Fonzie.  Strange days indeed 

Hey Fonzie...where in Asia are you at present?

Right now i´m in Malaysia-Kuala Lumpur, preparin for my flight back home on Sunday. I had awesome weeks , i have visited Malaysia, Cambodia, Vietnam, Indonesia and New Guinea.
23 flights in 6 weeks 

Good for you.  Safe travels.

[boumalo]

Breaking News:

If no one buys we won´t go up  

If no one sells, we won't go down.

I have to think about that, but there might be some truth in it.
For now, Chona started dumpin a little bit. We´ll see how low this will go.

3600B mined a day. Selling wont stop.

3600B mined doesn't mean 3600B on the market to sell and how much fiat is coming to the exchanges from people who want to buy&hold?

[gentlemand]

I would guess that a lot of mined coins are being sold straight to people like SecondMarket.

[klopper]

Choochoo?

[adamstgBit]

Breaking News:

If no one buys we won´t go up  

If no one sells, we won't go down.

I have to think about that, but there might be some truth in it.
For now, Chona started dumpin a little bit. We´ll see how low this will go.

3600B mined a day. Selling wont stop.

3600B mined doesn't mean 3600B on the market to sell and how much fiat is coming to the exchanges from people who want to buy&hold?

most miners are mining for bitcoin not fiat.

[billyjoeallen]

You're missing the point. Sometimes the story is wrong, even if it's a major news source, even if other news sources regurgitate it.

Yes of course it is; I don't know what will be the extend of the ban in China but I doubt Newsweek know more than a Chinese newspaper

Newsweek broke the story that Dorian Nakamoto is Satoshi. I was using it as an example of a respected news source running with a half-baked theory and calling it Gospel. Is English not your first language? I was not disparaging Asia or China.

[jonoiv]

Breaking News:

If no one buys we won´t go up  

If no one sells, we won't go down.

I have to think about that, but there might be some truth in it.
For now, Chona started dumpin a little bit. We´ll see how low this will go.

3600B mined a day. Selling wont stop.

3600B mined doesn't mean 3600B on the market to sell and how much fiat is coming to the exchanges from people who want to buy&hold?

most miners are mining for bitcoin not fiat.

do you have a source?

[JorgeStolfi]

I would guess that a lot of mined coins are being sold straight to people like SecondMarket.

SecondMarket's Bitcoin Investment Trust (BIT) does not seem to be a large buyer.  According to this thread it has now almost 100,000 bitcoins, including a "seed investment" of about 18,000 BTC.  About 53,000 were bought in 2013; ~4000 in January 2014, ~10,000 in February, ~13,000 in March.

They had promised "liquidity will start no later than March 2014", now changed to "in April 2014, on a limited basis".   Their nominal share value is tied to the price of bitcoin; AFAIK, that is what they will pay to investors who chose and can liquidate.  Thus they could make a good profit they were lucky to sell coins before this crash, and the crash lasts until clients liquidate.

[adamstgBit]

Breaking News:

If no one buys we won´t go up  

If no one sells, we won't go down.

I have to think about that, but there might be some truth in it.
For now, Chona started dumpin a little bit. We´ll see how low this will go.

3600B mined a day. Selling wont stop.

3600B mined doesn't mean 3600B on the market to sell and how much fiat is coming to the exchanges from people who want to buy&hold?

most miners are mining for bitcoin not fiat.

do you have a source?

ya me.

[fonzie]

What puzzles me is that a round number like 500$ isn´t used a strong point for either support or resistance.
We often have seen huge walls on such important points, like the 1000$ resistance or the 400$ support.
And 500 for sure is a pretty number. Everyone placed bids @666 for days/weeks but no one uses 500 i´m a bit dissapointed.



Edit. I consider that as a bearish sign  

[JayJuanGee]

we enter into the fifth month of constant decline in prices,
Check Trend line from decembar 2013 year !

Trend and price before 1 month:


Trend and price today:


See you again within a month with trend lines and current price.

These are the kinds of trend-lines and bare assertion claims that i find problematic b/c the starting point is the ATH... It makes little to no sense to be to start from the ATH in order to make what point?  It may make a point about a current situation that is occurring, but it does NOT make any meaningful point about the overall health and/or value of bitcoin.... In my view focusing on that time period, remains just out of context and a form of limited information.

[JayJuanGee]

Wow, reading Rui Ma's interview, I am very impressed with the vigor of the bitcoin startup community in China.  They are going to add an enormous amount of value to the BTC economy, on a very accellerated schedule.  They seem to have a huge advantage over U.S. entrepreneurs in this space.

I admit I have rather resented the rumors and the IP issues, the scams and the mining competition coming out of China, but they are also building out infrastructure with a seriously ambitious vision, and substantial funding.

the chinese are doing this in a lot of areas.. including investing in gold and investing in high speed trains and that is another reason we have to take with a grain of salt these claims that chinese dont like bitcoin... they love it... and they want to move away from the dollar as their investment vehicle...

[billyjoeallen]

blah blah blah.

These are the kinds of trend-lines and bare assertion claims that i find problematic b/c the starting point is the ATH... It makes little to no sense to be to start from the ATH in order to make what point?  It may make a point about a current situation that is occurring, but it does NOT make any meaningful point about the overall health and/or value of bitcoin.... In my view focusing on that time period, remains just out of context and a form of limited information.

Extrapolating that trend line, BTC should trade for -3$ by mid July. Yes, that's right. People will pay you to take bitcoins off their hands.

[JorgeStolfi]

What puzzles me is that a round number like 500$ isn´t used a strong point for either support or resistance.

Humans like round numbers; algorithms don't care for them.   As trading becomes more robotized, those round numbers should lose their "power".

Also, arbitrage between different currencies (euros, yuan, LTC...) will turn round number barriers in one exchange into non-round barriers in another.

Also, I suppose that even a human trader may use non-round prices to get ahead of other traders' round orders.  And he may spread a large order into many small orders, a few dollars apart, to prevent others from doing the same to him.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation