Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[philipma1957]

If you mean the 2048 rate being .0488 rather than .0388, then no. I noticed it but just assumed I didn't know shit about fuck so I let it go. Being a Newbie I can still get away with "I dunno..." and just wait for the answer.

That's the one.

Funny I saw the ipad do the two vs the too and corrected it.

So when you mentioned a typo I thought it was that.

Never saw the 0.0488xxx misdone as 0.0388xxx

as the two vs too auto correct caught my attention.

made note on original post.

[1714198609]

1714198609

[1714198609]

1714198609

[naim027]

El duderino_ and Elonmusk the real, El duderino_ is a bitcoin lover and Elonmusk is Tweeter small different   

yeah both are titter lover.

I wish everyone understands what you mean.

BTW, Expectations and Reality don't match all the time.

Expectation:



Reality:

[gallianooo]

Never ending boring.

HODL.

[Blue King]

BTC again 38700🤮

reel started again

Support 37000-38000 same..

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[bitcoinPsycho]

El duderino_ and Elonmusk the real, El duderino_ is a bitcoin lover and Elonmusk is Tweeter small different   

yeah both are titter lover.

I wish everyone understands what you mean.

BTW, Expectations and Reality don't match all the time.

Expectation:



Reality:

You must be new here.

Most of us here have had our expectations exceeded actually

[empowering]

[naim027]

El duderino_ and Elonmusk the real, El duderino_ is a bitcoin lover and Elonmusk is Tweeter small different   

yeah both are titter lover.

I wish everyone understands what you mean.

BTW, Expectations and Reality don't match all the time.

Expectation:



Reality:

You must be new here.

Most of us here have had our expectations exceeded actually

Yeah, I am new here. I am not sure if you have voted on the poll.
In the long run, our expectations were exceeded. But, I am talking about the current situation.
I expected that either we would break 50K again or get under 35K. I voted for June. I guess we can break this trading range in the next month or so.

[bitcoinPsycho]

[cAPSLOCK]

This is what I think is about to happen, both bullish and bearish cases:

Bullish Case:


Bearish Case:


I won't lie, chances for bearish scenario looks more than bullish, stay safe.

Totally agree with the assessment, and the first impulse has started.

My main issue is really that all of the markets look like ass right now, and Bitcoin seems to be tracking with the stocks.  I want to think this is a head fake, but I think we could be headed to a capitulation.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ImThour]

This is what I think is about to happen, both bullish and bearish cases:

Bullish Case:


Bearish Case:


I won't lie, chances for bearish scenario looks more than bullish, stay safe.

Totally agree with the assessment, and the first impulse has started.

My main issue is really that all of the markets look like ass right now, and Bitcoin seems to be tracking with the stocks.  I want to think this is a head fake, but I think we could be headed to a capitulation.

Yup, reached the support trendline already.
The current candle is a doji, I see bearish momentum as I mentioned in the post earlier, I think daily closing will be the most impactful candle for the next whole month.

In short, we can reach $34-36k in May if the daily close is below the trendline.

[JayJuanGee]

Just remembered that Factual Observations are not welcome

^ Look Juanitá. What a fool said long ago.

Of course, you know fools.

BTC and LN may have killed mining when blocks are:

 3.125 btc --------2024
 1.5625 btc ------ 2028
 0.78125 btc ----- 2032
 0.390625 btc----- 2036
 0.1953125 btc --- 2040
 0.09765625 btc -- 2044
 0.038828125 btc - 2048 7  ½ ings away. I will be 91 and likely not care too much

But I think Elon has enough wealth to hedge.  which is what he is doing.

Oh gawd......

Is it even possible that both you and Elon are goofy and delirious as fuck in the same synchronized direction to not understand bitcoin.. and have dumb ideas even though both of you should know better?  What a strange world it is.

Say it is not so.  Wake me up, at some point.

This guy is man of his words philipma1957.

I was looking for another discussion but found this one.

So after a 3.08% jump does mining look better?

   Some More reasons  mining can become profitable:

 super mining centers may be  a victim of terror , earthquake, fire, flooding.

Too many eggs in a basket run big losses.

We all should remember what happened when WD hdd plant flooded.

Or right now as I type Israel and Gaza are tossing missiles back and forth.

God forbid one drops into the sp30 plant.

Or the next Tsunami hits and floods something in china.

Concentration of large power sucking btc mines is asking for a plant to be destroyed one way or another.

some big mines here at this link are all in 1 spot. 

http://blockchain.info/pools

there is a solo address with 5%

another solo address with 4%

 a third solo address with 1%


this trend will lead to a crash and burn of a big plant  it is just the way things work.

To say BTC mining will never be profitable is silly. 

To say BTC mining may be hard to make a profit is better.

But if you are in position like right now (next jump is 10 or more days) and coins jump overnight to 1200usd  you make a ton of money in the next 10 days or so.

You can grant as much credibility as you like regarding various limitations that seems to have in Philip's thinking regarding the future direction of bitcoin's mining incentives.  I am not even saying that some of the things that he says do not make sense, and it hardly seems very relevant if Philip may have said some smart things in the past that you should grant credibility to his various current nonsense speculations regarding what he believes to be problematic future bitcoin incentives...

Of course, do what you like, if you need a sorcerer because there is no need to even suggest that I am proclaiming that Philip does not make sensible posts from time to time, even though I will also assert that he spouts out a lot of negative speculation based on limit facts, too.

Anyhow, his speculation that bitcoin mining has incentive challenges 6-7 halvenings down the road comes off as way too premature to be scaremongering about supposed negative impacts of bitcoin rewards - when there are a whole hell of a lot of matters/factors that go into the bitcoin mining incentive formula - including various bitcoin adoption angles that need to play out and also affect BTC prices too.. whether we have activities on layer 1, 2, 3 and/or various interactions and transactions within each of those layers that incentivize the other layers within that..

And, seems to me that just the incentives of BIGGER and BIGGER players (who may get involved in mining too) to want to secure their historical coins/accumulations rather than being directly motivated by block rewards (part of the rationale that block rewards could go down to effectively zero and incentives to mine bitcoin will remain). 

Maybe part of my point remains that there are too many unknowns into bitcoin's future to be becoming all doomy and gloomy about some kind of bitcoin mining incentives spiral which historically Philip seems to harp on those kinds of simple formulas a lot, and I am not even saying to ignore those ideas completely but they seems to be of way less immediate concern and to have way too many variables that they are really not actionable in the here and now.. so why fearmonger about them? In some sense it was like the supposed professor Stolfi coming into this thread and showing us how smart he was about the hundreds of fringe ways that bitcoin could spiral to the ground, and surely none of the proposals that Stolfi was making were untrue - but they have not played out very well historically to get caught up in the weeds of doom and gloom and projecting those kinds of negative scenarios when not accounting for some other facts, or sometimes more likely scenarios or even some unknowable facts...  Of course, Philip is no Stolfi, but directionally we can still go down the road of similar kinds of problems to be placing too much emphasis on too few facts to reach conclusions that could happen but there is not enough information to really get all worked up about those kinds of potentially negative scenarios way too prematurely.

[cAPSLOCK]

Yup, reached the support trendline already.
The current candle is a doji, I see bearish momentum as I mentioned in the post earlier, I think daily closing will be the most impactful candle for the next whole month.

In short, we can reach $34-36k in May if the daily close is below the trendline.

This is EXACTLY what I was talking about in my recent "The next XXX are critical" post.  

I think if we break down from here it just about locks in a cycle capitulation event.  I do not think it will be as low as many have called for...

Also the macro environment, and geopolitical scene and everything else is pointing towards rough waters.

And conversely if we DO bounce here.  PARTICULARLY against the market trends (doubtful).  Then I think we will see a strong movement back towards 48k.  I say we are 2:1 dogs at this point.

Bullish underdog fractal:

[philipma1957]

Just remembered that Factual Observations are not welcome

^ Look Juanitá. What a fool said long ago.

Of course, you know fools.

BTC and LN may have killed mining when blocks are:

 3.125 btc --------2024
 1.5625 btc ------ 2028
 0.78125 btc ----- 2032
 0.390625 btc----- 2036
 0.1953125 btc --- 2040
 0.09765625 btc -- 2044
 0.038828125 btc - 2048 7  ½ ings away. I will be 91 and likely not care too much

But I think Elon has enough wealth to hedge.  which is what he is doing.

Oh gawd......

Is it even possible that both you and Elon are goofy and delirious as fuck in the same synchronized direction to not understand bitcoin.. and have dumb ideas even though both of you should know better?  What a strange world it is.

Say it is not so.  Wake me up, at some point.

This guy is man of his words philipma1957.

I was looking for another discussion but found this one.

So after a 3.08% jump does mining look better?

   Some More reasons  mining can become profitable:

 super mining centers may be  a victim of terror , earthquake, fire, flooding.

Too many eggs in a basket run big losses.

We all should remember what happened when WD hdd plant flooded.

Or right now as I type Israel and Gaza are tossing missiles back and forth.

God forbid one drops into the sp30 plant.

Or the next Tsunami hits and floods something in china.

Concentration of large power sucking btc mines is asking for a plant to be destroyed one way or another.

some big mines here at this link are all in 1 spot. 

http://blockchain.info/pools

there is a solo address with 5%

another solo address with 4%

 a third solo address with 1%


this trend will lead to a crash and burn of a big plant  it is just the way things work.

To say BTC mining will never be profitable is silly. 

To say BTC mining may be hard to make a profit is better.

But if you are in position like right now (next jump is 10 or more days) and coins jump overnight to 1200usd  you make a ton of money in the next 10 days or so.

You can grant as much credibility as you like regarding various limitations that seems to have in Philip's thinking regarding the future direction of bitcoin's mining incentives.  I am not even saying that some of the things that he says do not make sense, and it hardly seems very relevant if Philip may have said some smart things in the past that you should grant credibility to his various current nonsense speculations regarding what he believes to be problematic future bitcoin incentives...

Of course, do what you like, if you need a sorcerer because there is no need to even suggest that I am proclaiming that Philip does not make sensible posts from time to time, even though I will also assert that he spouts out a lot of negative speculation based on limit facts, too.

Anyhow, his speculation that bitcoin mining has incentive challenges 6-7 halvenings down the road comes off as way too premature to be scaremongering about supposed negative impacts of bitcoin rewards - when there are a whole hell of a lot of matters/factors that go into the bitcoin mining incentive formula - including various bitcoin adoption angles that need to play out and also affect BTC prices too.. whether we have activities on layer 1, 2, 3 and/or various interactions and transactions within each of those layers that incentivize the other layers within that..

And, seems to me that just the incentives of BIGGER and BIGGER players (who may get involved in mining too) to want to secure their historical coins/accumulations rather than being directly motivated by block rewards (part of the rationale that block rewards could go down to effectively zero and incentives to mine bitcoin will remain). 

Maybe part of my point remains that there are too many unknowns into bitcoin's future to be becoming all doomy and gloomy about some kind of bitcoin mining incentives spiral which historically Philip seems to harp on those kinds of simple formulas a lot, and I am not even saying to ignore those ideas completely but they seems to be of way less immediate concern and to have way too many variables that they are really not actionable in the here and now.. so why fearmonger about them? In some sense it was like the supposed professor Stolfi coming into this thread and showing us how smart he was about the hundreds of fringe ways that bitcoin could spiral to the ground, and surely none of the proposals that Stolfi was making were untrue - but they have not played out very well historically to get caught up in the weeds of doom and gloom and projecting those kinds of negative scenarios when not accounting for some other facts, or sometimes more likely scenarios or even some unknowable facts...  Of course, Philip is no Stolfi, but directionally we can still go down the road of similar kinds of problems to be placing too much emphasis on too few facts to reach conclusions that could happen but there is not enough information to really get all worked up about those kinds of potentially negative scenarios way too prematurely.

my idle speculation on btc and doge futures was done to show why I think Elon Musk practice’s a dual approach to coins. Please remember that if you have over sixty billion in wealth playing with BTC and Doge makes perfect sense.

I would not dis Elon until he decides eth is the way to go then he could go fuck himself as eth is a sad joke of a coin.

[JayJuanGee]

But what do I Know According to JJG not much.

That's true.




Hey.. by the way.. even though you say some pretty dumb stuff from time to time.. you do say some smart stuff sometimes, too. #justsaying.

I suppose part of my ongoing annoyance is that you just seem to want to ongoingly get caught up on wild speculative tangents on a regular basis.. It's like the sorcerer wannabe syndrome.. and part of the problem would be getting into too many specifics on a regular and ongoing basis.. You seem unable to help ur lil selfie.  

In that regard, at this time, we cannot really know your regular levels of specifics in the future.. even though we might be able to figure out some directions that are more likely to play out than others, we still need some of the gaps to fill in before we can get into knowing some of the specifics that you end up liking to outline.. so  filling the gaps with a variety of assumptions that might or might not happen can sometimes be misleading and wanting to reach the answer way too soon... even though there is a chance that the ultimate speculation could end up coming out correctly and exactly as you said (but still would not take a way that you had filled in some of the gaps with guesses (even if somewhat educated guesses) - that you ended up randomly either getting correct.. or the matter/events that ended up filling in those gaps ended up contributing to  the causing of the same results that you had been speculating upon)... and for some reason, if you were to get the conclusion correct, then you still would seem to want to get credit for being able to predict the future with too many specifics.

Why does there seem to be such an ongoing and pressing need for you (of course, you are not the only one who does this) to want to ongoingly get into so many specifics about the various future scenarios?  I am not sure.

 3.125 btc --------2024
 1.5625 btc ------ 2028
 0.78125 btc ----- 2032
 0.390625 btc----- 2036
 0.1953125 btc --- 2040
 0.09765625 btc -- 2044
 0.038828125 btc - 2048 7  ½ ings away. I will be 91 and likely not care too much

So, am I the only one who noticed the typo? Didn't this happen before? Is it a copy and paste?

I doubt very many of us were getting into that level of granularity rather than just attempting to grapple with Philips overall doomy/gloomy point that likes to suggest that something is broken in bitcoin's mining incentive thing - even while he does not seem to account for enough facts (including even some less doomy and gloomy but logical directions of future mining incentives and also including some unknowns - that he cannot really account for but seems inclined to want to do it anyhow).

Upon review, I see that you must be talking about the 2048 bitcoin reward which should have been 0.04882812 BTC rather than 0.03882812 BTC...? which would be one of the reasons to go back and edit previous posts when substantive mistakes are pointed out... unless citing from another source.. then forgetting that there is a mistake in part of the substantive posts?

[edited out]

my idle speculation on btc and doge futures was done to show why I think Elon Musk practice’s a dual approach to coins. Please remember that if you have over sixty billion in wealth playing with BTC and Doge makes perfect sense.

I would not dis Elon until he decides eth is the way to go then he could go fuck himself as eth is a sad joke of a coin.

Sure.  There can be some fair points in terms of trying to suss out and speculate on what might be motivating Elon...

Of course, you had made a bit of a funny reference in regards to how you and Elon might be thinking alike on aspects of the mining/rewards incentive topic, too. hahahahahaha  You gotta admit that some of the juxtaposing of doggie coin and bitcoin remain ridiculous in vary BIG ways and it is not really fair to even attempt to make any of us have to go down those kinds of nonsense comparative roads that would even have to closely attempt to treat that crap coin (though lots of funzies coin) seriously.

#Bitcoin is a one-way street

#Bitcoin is on a journey from zero to zero. It was worthless in the beginning, and it will have no fiat value in the end.

https://twitter.com/dergigi/status/1518553872834379778?s=21

Ostensibly true. The question is whether that will be due to the complete abandonment of fiat or the heat death of the universe.

Why not both?

[shahzadafzal]

OT:

But this absolute nuts, if anyone has been following the Johnny Depp and Amber Heard case..

I just wanna say Amber claimed to have carried a Milani Cosmetics color correcting and conclear kit in her purse so she could hide her marks and bruises she supposedly got from Johnny ( her laywer showed the exact one she claimed to have "used" in court).

Milani Cosmetics just released a statement calling Amber out on her bullsh*t because that kit didn't come out until December 2017 and the alleged abuse was from 2014-2016..

We love Milani Cosmetics for that 👏

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[shahzadafzal]

#Bitcoin is a one-way street

#Bitcoin is on a journey from zero to zero. It was worthless in the beginning, and it will have no fiat value in the end.

https://twitter.com/dergigi/status/1518553872834379778?s=21

Ostensibly true. The question is whether that will be due to the complete abandonment of fiat or the heat death of the universe.

Why not both?

I see what you did there :p

But see both are very much possible and within the timeframe of course.

 
 
Don’t forget time is relative.

[ivomm]

The market is completely illogical these days. The mass adoption, worldwide recognition and the outflow of bitcoins from exchanges is rapidly growing each day. Still the bears find ammo to erase any positive price movement.  May be this is caused by the reckless longs and/or whales trying to control the market and buying in the shadows cheap coins. But anyone falling in this trap is going to regret as those who sold at 3K-4k not so long time ago. To be honest, I'm a bit sad for all these morons, since they bet on the wrong side - the global fiat collapsing empire. They follow the footsteps of mindrust. The inflation in all countries is taking its heavy toll. Just in 2 years for the most important goods it is over 50%. Imagine what will happen after 10 or 20 years and those thinking "we are rich" by selling now, one day will be completely broke. And then imagine what will be the price of BTCitcoin despite the bear markets caused by the near-sightedness of these jerks. It is obvious for me that selling just for fiat in the bank now and in the future is a huge mistake!