Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

I used to like you til the war.  

This has to be a classic.


 

As chartbuddy cant even cope with the dumps and follow the price.. he doesnt deserve a thread.

Mamma mia.
I pray the Lord for health to survive my 3rd fu#$ing bear market

You seem more outraged than me.


First, I am not going to presume a bear market, yet.. but hey, I denied the 2018 bear market through the whole year all the way down and until the November 2018 capitulation event that brought us from a $6k-ish price that had been tested at least 6 times by the time it broke in mid-November 2018... so at that point, I conceded.

Maybe my failure/refusal to concede will play out again.. ?  until I do end up conceding.. .. I am not sure what the price, but if we get back down into the lower $30ks again, then that would mean that this time we have broken the 100-week moving average.. which currently is at $35k and the 100-week moving average was at about $20k in July 2021, when we ONLY got down to $28,600.... so yeah.. breaking the 100-week moving average and staying below that for a day or two might cause me some worries.. maybe ?  maybe? maybe?

I am having some troubles relating to you regarding your seeming outrage about the pain of another possible bear market... I am pretty much the same as you.  This would be my third.  I started out in one by getting into bitcoin in late 2013, I started out in a bear market, but did not really realize it was a bear market (look - dummy me, again) until late 2014 when the price had come down from $1,163 in December 2013 to reach the $200s in December 2014..and then get stuck in the $200s for the vast majority of 2015.

For me, it seems that each bear market (and even extended corrections) get quite a bit easier.  Sure, every once in a while there can be some stressful times and even feelings of trepidation about whether the bottom is in and when the bottom is going to be in.. .. but still so far each bear market has had way higher lows than the previous one.. so practically speaking if any of us are erroring in on the side of HODLing, then our wealth should be way higher each time.... think about a mostly bottom in the mid $200s in 2015.. and then a bottom of mostly upper $3ks and lower $4ks in late 2018.. and an almost revisiting in 2019 and a brief liquidity event revisiting in March 2020...

It seems almost unimaginable to get anything close to $3k.. sure lower $20ks seem possible.. and sure it could go lower but the odds seem really implausible.. just like the odds of double digits started to become implausible in 2015 and just like the odds of sub $1k seemed implausible in 2018-2020..... so in that regard, if we have been erroring on the side of mostly HODLing.. the golly-gee-whiz, we should have bottoms that are 10x higher on each cycle.. at least so far.. which causes $10k to be nearly implausible.. but we still should have BTC that would still be at least 40x higher than it was in 2015... and shit another 4x after that given even our current $36k-ish prices.. and not even saying that any of the three bear cycle folks should be selling coin at these prices, but if we had to sell coin, those coin would be around 140x more valuable than they were for the vast majority of 2015.

Difficult for me to feel any kind of dread in our current circumstances, even if we might end up entering into a bear market.. and I am not going to concede that we are even in a bear market yet.. even though there are some guys who just love prematurely proclaiming bear markets.. and maybe they just happen to be way smarter than this here reluctant to concede bear market cat.

[PoolMinor]

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg60023386#msg60023386

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Blue King]

We are 50% through the fourth #Bitcoin Epoch!



50% of Blocks have been mined since last halving.
105,000 to go!
Expected halving date: 3 May 2024!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[OutOfMemory]

Past the $35.xxx downward spike?
I would carefully start picking up some sats now.

As long as this goes on, it can't go on forever.
We had way shittier times within the last 5 years. All noobs are pussies (like i was when i started getting into BTC)  

Maybe a worry that Russia will collapse?

Don't worry about Russia. Brilliant times ahead for their nation! They will rise to Great North Korean standards soon. *imagine trumpet orchestra playing heroic theme here*

Over 50%+ trades belongs to the BTC and second ETH and other Alts as follow.

Related: I learned about APE earlier today. I can't believe the degenerate shit continues... Thank Christ I upped my medication.

Not sure how I'd cope otherwise with everything going on in meatspace fuck.

Zen

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[AnotherAlt]

Breaking News: Another Bitcoin Futures ETF Approved by SEC With No Spot Product in Sight
The fund is the second such product filed under the Securities Act of 1933 to gain agency approval

Source: https://blockworks.co/another-bitcoin-futures-etf-approved-by-sec-with-no-spot-product-in-sight/


Bitcoin Hit Hard by Inflation Fears, Suffers Worst Daily Drop Since January
Bitcoin has only fallen this much during a single day on one other occasion this year

Source: https://blockworks.co/bitcoin-hit-hard-by-inflation-fears-suffers-worst-daily-drop-since-january/

[Franctoshi]

crash the market down to $20-$19k, and I think it's going to be retested again.

I don't see this happening. Hearing talk of Saylor being margin called at $21k, and it's not clear to me how/why we would drop that low.

Strange times to be sure.

Michael Saylor isn't the only institutional Investor into Bitcoin and the market is not control by Michael Saylor either,
We have other institutional investors and bigger Whales in the market that can decide to do something differently from Saylor.

Too I see an order block using the weekly time frame around 19k (the last Red candle stick before ATH), base on my little experience in trading , most times the market tends to revisit those zones again despite how far that the market might have gone.

[LoyceV]

DiVERsIfiCATioN Is KEy To MiNiMizINg LoSSeS  

So all gains were based on the FED doing Brrr? That's kinda worrying.

[BobLawblaw]

Zen

It stopped working for me

Yeah, shit is getting that hectic... Meditation is beginning to fail me and not helping for productively contextualizing the realities of life.

The human condition is a huge sack of shit.

I sorta-kinda joke (not really?), but I'm truly wondering if skirting with pure nihilism at this point in my life.

Not healthy and recognized I needed help.

[BobLawblaw]

Michael Saylor isn't the only institutional Investor into Bitcoin and the market is not control by Michael Saylor either <snip>

You're correct, but he's one of the larger fish, and there is a cubic fucktonne of money tied up in fiat between here and $21k - IMO, would need to be a black-swan event to drop below $20k at this point.

[machasm]

Michael Saylor isn't the only institutional Investor into Bitcoin and the market is not control by Michael Saylor either <snip>

You're correct, but he's one of the larger fish, and there is a cubic fucktonne of money tied up in fiat between here and $21k - IMO, would need to be a black-swan event to drop below $20k at this point.

Black Swans seem to be a little more prevalent these days. Still HODLing whatever happens.
Hope you manage to get your head right BLB and lighten your thoughts. I know its hard during these last couple of years but YOLO and all that. 

[modrobert]

Checking the 15 minute chart, looks like a dead cat without the bounce part, it just died.

The BIP 119 ordeal doesn't help either. I'm against smart contracts support in Bitcoin, don't want Bitcoin turning into Ethereum with all that entails. I'm fairly optimistic BIP 119 will be rejected eventually, but it's going to get worse before it gets better.

As of writing this Bitcoin fell off another cliff, from mid 36k down towards 35k USD.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[OutOfMemory]

Zen

It stopped working for me

Yeah, shit is getting that hectic... Meditation is beginning to fail me and not helping for productively contextualizing the realities of life.

The human condition is a huge sack of shit.

I sorta-kinda joke (not really?), but I'm truly wondering if skirting with pure nihilism at this point in my life.

Not healthy and recognized I needed help.

It's always good to know when to look for help.
I suggest a full break in near future, if you can do this, being in the middle of your current project(s). Two weeks minimum, with minimal touching points to the stupid space rock population, in a comfy place, for example a cottage in the lower mountains.
Lately, i started experimenting with electrostimulation of selected nerve branches, which already gave me some benficial results that i have to try to falsify now.
I'll keep you uptdated. If i'll be about sure that it's actually helpful and not only the fucking ole placebo fx.

EDIT: I did stick bright white LED into my ears in the past (which was definitely a placebo), don't ask  
But i'll probably never stop trying things to improve my short dumb life on this damn planet.

Off to RL for some hours, got a mild flu, have to bury a chicken, because the damn fox doesn't show up...

[JayJuanGee]

BTC Market Crash

[img height=300]https://i.ibb.co/XpHSc3S/IMG-20220505-214238.jpg[img]

It's not a Crash, It's an opportunity to buy more.


A Brand New Video Meme. Dedicated to @cAPSLOCK, @JayJuanGee, @LFC_Bitcoin, @El duderino_

Note: No Offense. Just For Fun.

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/-P24HqyjPjY

Kind of helps to establish part of my post responding to you in the stock to flow thread... in which you seemed to have been complaining about BTC prices not going up fast enough..and the fact of the matter is that anyone who remains in BTC accumulation phase should be rejoicing that some of our seemingly inevitable UPpity price moves are actually taking a while to play out.

Personally, I have taken more than 8 years to develop a system so that I always (as much if that can be guaranteed) have fiat to buy on dips.. and I just hope that I do not have to buy on dips because I prefer the price to go up... even my first years into bitcoin I did not ever run out of fiat, except for some somewhat unrelated business matters that I had between about February 2015 and about May 2015.. well in some sense, I just mustered what I could through the whole of 2015 to buy bitcoin when I could .. and that was the bottom of the dip for that cycle.. but who knew at the time, and so many people were either telling me to sell what i had or having a kind of pitiful feeling regarding how foolish that they thought that I was holding bitcoin bags and refusing to sell... so yeah, if you run out of fiat, you just gotta HODL.. or maybe figure out ways to earn some more fiat so that you can continue to buy or to have some ability prepare in case there are further BTC price dips (of course, not guaranteed to even happen, even though quite a bit of negative sentiment currently seeming to exist in all markets).

Maybe in sum, each of us should be striving to do our best based on our own circumstances, and maybe attempt to learn if there might be some good techniques that some of the other WO members have to attempt to manage their cashflows.. and maybe I should even retract my statement from above, because as the BTC price goes down I buy BTC, and even I have been buying all the way down from around $60k-ish.. so the price goes down so long, and there can be regrets about not saving as much to buy lower.. but at the same time, I feel comfortable with my system, so there are buy orders going all the way down to $20k.. and if the BTC price were to start to go below $30k, then I might start to reconsider if I might want to restructure some of my lower buy orders that have not filled yet.. and surely there is a phenomenon in which any of us can run into situations in which we may well feel that we are running out of money to buy as much as we would like to buy... and that seems to be part of the attempts that each of us make (even if we feel that we have prepared ourselves financially and psychologically) to balance trade offs.